876 resultados para Age-Period-Cohort


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Objective To determine patterns of dental set-vices provided to a cohort of the insured population 18 years and over, in private general practice in New South Wales, Australia. Basic research design A cohort study using the person-years method and Poisson regression for analysis. Setting Data were derived from claims records submitted by members of a health insurance fund (Government Employees Health Fund-GEHF) for rebates during the study period 1 January 1992-31 December 1995. Participants There were 133,467 members aged 18 years and over from New South Wales. Main outcome measures To determine, by age group, for those members who used private general practice and made a claim (referred to as 'patients') the annual number of visits, total number of services received per year and number of services received at a visit, Results The mean number of visits per patient was 2.4 per year with patients under 45 years making fewer visits than the 45-54 age group reference category. Mean number of services utilised per patient-year was 5.9, with services provided increasing from 3.5 for the 18-24-year-old group, reaching a plateau of approximately 6.2 for those aged 45 years or more. The number of services received per visit was 2.4 and there were no differences by age. Service mix was dominated by restorative (35%), diagnostic (27%), and preventive services (18%); with age specific variations observed. Conclusions Age was found to be an important determinant in the use of dental services, independent of membership duration and gender.

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We present a method of estimating HIV incidence rates in epidemic situations from data on age-specific prevalence and changes in the overall prevalence over time. The method is applied to women attending antenatal clinics in Hlabisa, a rural district of KwaZulu/Natal, South Africa, where transmission of HIV is overwhelmingly through heterosexual contact. A model which gives age-specific prevalence rates in the presence of a progressing epidemic is fitted to prevalence data for 1998 using maximum likelihood methods and used to derive the age-specific incidence. Error estimates are obtained using a Monte Carlo procedure. Although the method is quite general some simplifying assumptions are made concerning the form of the risk function and sensitivity analyses are performed to explore the importance of these assumptions. The analysis shows that in 1998 the annual incidence of infection per susceptible woman increased from 5.4 per cent (3.3-8.5 per cent; here and elsewhere ranges give 95 per cent confidence limits) at age 15 years to 24.5 per cent (20.6-29.1 per cent) at age 22 years and declined to 1.3 per cent (0.5-2.9 per cent) at age 50 years; standardized to a uniform age distribution, the overall incidence per susceptible woman aged 15 to 59 was 11.4 per cent (10.0-13.1 per cent); per women in the population it was 8.4 per cent (7.3-9.5 per cent). Standardized to the age distribution of the female population the average incidence per woman was 9.6 per cent (8.4-11.0 per cent); standardized to the age distribution of women attending antenatal clinics, it was 11.3 per cent (9.8-13.3 per cent). The estimated incidence depends on the values used for the epidemic growth rate and the AIDS related mortality. To ensure that, for this population, errors in these two parameters change the age specific estimates of the annual incidence by less than the standard deviation of the estimates of the age specific incidence, the AIDS related mortality should be known to within +/-50 per cent and the epidemic growth rate to within +/-25 per cent, both of which conditions are met. In the absence of cohort studies to measure the incidence of HIV infection directly, useful estimates of the age-specific incidence can be obtained from cross-sectional, age-specific prevalence data and repeat cross-sectional data on the overall prevalence of HIV infection. Several assumptions were made because of the lack of data but sensitivity analyses show that they are unlikely to affect the overall estimates significantly. These estimates are important in assessing the magnitude of the public health problem, for designing vaccine trials and for evaluating the impact of interventions. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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The offspringof older fathers have an increased risk of various disorders that may be due to the accumulation of DNA mutations during spermatogenesis. Previous studies have suggested increased paternal age may be a risk factor for schizophrenia. The aim of the current study was to examine paternal age as a risk factor for schizophrenia andror psychosis. We used data from three sources: a population-based cohort studyŽDenmark., and two case-control studiesŽSweden and Australia.. In the Danish and Australian studies, we examined both psychosis and schizophrenia. In the Swedish study we examined psychosis only. After controllingfor the effect of maternal age, increased paternal age was significantly associated with increased risk of both psychosis and schizophrenia in the Danish study and of psychosis in the Swedish study. The Australian study found no association between paternal age and risk of psychosis or schizophrenia. In all three studies the relationship between paternal age and risk of disorder in the offspring was AUB-shaped. In addition to an increased risk for the offspringof older father Ž)35 years., there was a non-significant increase for the offspringof fathers aged less than 20 years. The possible role of paternally derived DNA mutations andror other psychosocial factors associated with older paternal age warrants further research. The ‘U’-shaped relationship suggests that factors other than DNA mutations may warrant consideration in this research. The Stanley Foundation supported this project.

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We have previously shown that exposing rats to a relatively high dose of ethanol during early postnatal life can result in an alteration in spatial learning ability. The hippocampal formation is known to be involved in the control of this ability. The purpose of the present study was to determine whether exposure of rats to ethanol during early postnatal life had either immediate or delayed effects on the numbers of pyramidal cells in the CA1-CA3 subregion of the hippocampus. Wistar rats were exposed to a relatively high daily dose of ethanol at postnatal day 10-15 by placing them for 3 h/day in a chamber containing ethanol vapor. Groups of ethanol-treated (ET), separation control (SC), and mother-reared control (MRC) rats were anesthetized and killed at 16 and 30 days of age by perfusion with phosphate-buffered 2.5% glutaraldehyde. The Cavalieri principle was used to determine the volumes of the CA1 and CA2+CA3 regions. The physical disector method was used to estimate the numerical density of neurons in each of the subdivisions. The total number of pyramidal cells was calculated by multiplying the appropriate estimates of the numerical density by the volume. There were significant age-related reductions in the total numbers of pyramidal cells at 16-30 days of age irrespective of the groups examined. Ethanol treated rats were found to have slightly but significantly fewer pyramidal cell neurons than either the MRC or SC groups. These observations indicate that pyramidal cells in the hippocampus may be vulnerable to a relatively high dose of ethanol exposure during this short period of early postnatal life. (C) 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

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Background: Cohort studies have shown that smoking has a substantial influence on coronary heart disease mortality in young people. Population based data on non-fatal events have been sparse, however. Objective: To study the impact of smoking on the risk of non-fatal acute myocardial infarction (MI) in young middle age people. Methods: From 1985 to 1994 all non-fatal MI events in the age group 35 - 64 were registered in men and women in the WHO MONICA ( multinational monitoring of trends and determinants in cardiovascular disease) project populations ( 18 762 events in men and 4047 in women from 32 populations from 21 countries). In the same populations and age groups 65 741 men and 66 717 women participated in the surveys of risk factors ( overall response rate 72%). The relative risk of non-fatal MI for current smokers was compared with non-smokers, by sex and five year age group. Results: The prevalence of smoking in people aged 35 - 39 years who experienced non-fatal MI events was 81% in men and 77% in women. It declined with increasing age to 45% in men aged 60 - 64 years and 36% in women, respectively. In the 35 - 39 years age group the relative risk of non-fatal MI for smokers was 4.9 (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.9 to 6.1) in men and 5.3 ( 95% CI 3.2 to 8.7) in women, and the population attributable fractions were 65% and 55%, respectively. Conclusions: During the study period more than half of the non-fatal MIs occurring in young middle age people can be attributed to smoking.

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Study objective: To investigate the effect of the voluntary folate fortification policy in Australia on serum folate and total plasma homocysteine (tHcy) concentrations. Design: Population based cohort study. Setting: Perth, Western Australia. Participants: Men and women aged 27 to 77 years (n = 468), who were originally randomly selected from the Perth electoral roll. The cohort was surveyed in 1995/96 before widespread introduction of folate fortification of a variety of foods, and followed up on two occasions, firstly in 1998/99 and again in 2001, when a moderate number of folate fortified foods were available. Subjects with abnormal serum creatinine concentrations at baseline were excluded from this analysis. Main results: Repeated measures analysis of variance was used to determine changes in serum folate and tHcy over the three surveys and to assess whether time trends were related to age, sex, MTHFR C677T genotype, or consumption of folate fortified foods. An increase (38%) in mean serum folate (p < 0.0005) and a decrease (21%) in mean tHcy (p < 0.0005) were seen after introduction of the voluntary folate fortification policy in Australia. Serum folate was consistently higher (p = 0.032) and tHcy was consistently lower (p = 0.001) in subjects who consumed at least one folate fortified food compared with subjects who did not consume any folate fortified foods in the previous week. The time related changes in serum folate and tHcy were affected only by intake of folate fortified foods (p < 0.0005) and not by any other measured variables including age, sex, or MTHFR genotype. Conclusion: Voluntary fortification of foods with folate in Australia has been followed by a substantial increase in serum folate and decrease in tHcy in the general population.

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Rats with a bilateral neonatal ventral hippocampus lesion (NVHL) are used as models of neurobiological aspects of schizophrenia. In view of their decreased number of GABAergic interneurons, we hypothesized that they would show increased reactivity to acoustic stimuli. We systematically characterized the acoustic reactivity of NVHL rats and sham operated controls. They were behaviourally observed during a loud white noise. A first cohort of 7 months` old rats was studied. Then the observations were reproduced in a second cohort of the same age after characterizing the reactivity of the same rats to dopaminergic drugs. A third cohort of rats was studied at 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 months. In subsets of lesioned and control rats, inferior colliculus auditory evoked potentials were recorded. A significant proportion of rats (50-62%) showed aberrant audiogenic responses with explosive wild running resembling the initial phase of audiogenic seizures. This was not correlated with their well-known enhanced reactivity to dopaminergic drugs. The proportion of rats showing this strong reaction increased with rats` age. After the cessation of the noise, NVHL rats showed a long freezing period that did neither depend on the size of the lesion nor on the rats` age. The initial negative deflection of the auditory evoked potential was enhanced in the inferior colliculus of only NVHL rats that displayed wild running. Complementary anatomical investigations using X-ray scans in the living animal, and alizarin red staining of brain slices, revealed a thin layer of calcium deposit close to the medial geniculate nuclei in post-NVHL rats, raising the possibility that this may contribute to the hyper-reactivity to sounds seen in these animals. The findings of this study provide complementary information with potential relevance for the hyper-reactivity noted in patients with schizophrenia, and therefore a tool to investigate the underlying biology of this endophenotype. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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In order to describe the prevalence of hypercholesterolemia and hypertriglyceridemia in a cohort of HIV-infected children and adolescents in Latin America and to determine associations with highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), we performed this cross-sectional analysis within the NICHD International Site Development Initiative pediatric cohort study. Eligible children had to be at least 2 years of age and be on HAART. Among the 477 eligible HIV-infected youth, 98 (20.5%) had hypercholesterolemia and 140 (29.4%) had hypertriglyceridemia. In multivariable analyses, children receiving protease inhibitor (PI)-containing HAART were at increased risk for hypercholesterolemia [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 2.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3-5.6] and hypertriglyceridemia (AOR = 3.5, 95% CI 1.9-6.4) compared with children receiving non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-containing HAART. In conclusion, HIV-infected youth receiving PI-containing HAART in this Latin American cohort were at increased risk for hypercholesterolemia and hypertriglyceridemia compared with those receiving NNRTI-containing HAART.

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Background: The presence of coronary artery calcium (CAC) is an independent marker of increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and mortality. However, the predictive value of thoracic aorta calcification (TAC), which can be additionally identified without further scanning during assessment of CAC, is unknown. Methods: We followed a cohort of 8401 asymptomatic individuals (mean age: 53 +/- 10 years, 69% men) undergoing cardiac risk factor evaluation and TAC and CAC testing with electron beam computed tomography. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were developed to predict all-cause mortality based on the presence of TAC. Results: During a median follow-up period of 5 years, 124 (1.5%) deaths were observed. Overall survival was 96.9% and 98.9% for those with and without detectable TAC, respectively (p < 0.0001). Compared to those with no TAC, the hazard ratio for mortality in the presence of TAC was 3.25 (95% CI: 2.28-4.65, p < 0.0001) in unadjusted analysis. After adjusting for age, gender, hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, smoking and family history of premature coronary artery disease, and presence of CAC the relationship remained robust (HR 1.61, 95% CI: 1.10-2.27, p = 0.015). Likelihood ratio chi(2) statistics demonstrated that the addition of TAC contributed significantly in predicting mortality to traditional risk factors alone (chi(2) = 13.62, p = 0.002) as well as risk factors + CAC (chi(2) = 5.84, p = 0.02) models. Conclusion: In conclusion, the presence of TAC was associated with all-cause mortality in our study; this relationship was independent of conventional CVD risk factors as well as the presence of CAC. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

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To analyse breast cancer incidence trends in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, in relation to population-based mammography screening targeting women aged 50 to 69 years. Trends in age-specific incidence of invasive breast cancers in NSW women aged >= 40 years were examined in relation to mammography screening rates and screening cancer detection rates. Incidence of invasive breast cancer in NSW women increased in all age-groups over 1972 to 2002. The incidence trend for women aged 50 to 69 years showed that the steepest rise was associated with increased participation in population-based mammography screening, which was implemented from 1988 and achieved state-wide coverage in 1995. The elevated incidence of invasive cancer significantly exceeded pre-screening levels, and persisted after rates of initial screens declined. This elevated incidence was sustained by the contribution of cancers diagnosed through subsequent screening, and resulted from increased cancer detection rates in subsequent screens. The recent increase in invasive breast cancer incidence in NSW is associated with mammography screening, and occurred mostly in the target age-group women. Persistence of higher incidence after 1994 was not explicable by inflation of cancer incidence due to detection of prevalent screen cases, but was associated with a trend of increased cancer detection rates in subsequent screening rounds, probably consequent to quality improvements in mammography screening diagnosis.

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We evaluated the associations between glycemic therapies and prevalence of diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN) at baseline among participants in the Bypass Angioplasty Revascularization Investigation 2 Diabetes (BARI 2D) trial on medical and revascularization therapies for coronary artery disease (CAD) and on insulin-sensitizing vs. insulin-providing treatments for diabetes. A total of 2,368 patients with type 2 diabetes and CAD was evaluated. DPN was defined as clinical examination score > 2 using the Michigan Neuropathy Screening Instrument (MNSI). DPN odds ratios across different groups of glycemic therapy were evaluated by multiple logistic regression adjusted for multiple covariates including age, sex, hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), and diabetes duration. Fifty-one percent of BARI 2D subjects with valid baseline characteristics and MNSI scores had DPN. After adjusting for all variables, use of insulin was significantly associated with DPN (OR = 1.57, 95% CI: 1.15-2.13). Patients on sulfonylurea (SU) or combination of SU/metformin (Met)/thiazolidinediones (TZD) had marginally higher rates of DPN than the Met/TZD group. This cross-sectional study in a cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes and CAD showed association of insulin use with higher DPN prevalence, independent of disease duration, glycemic control, and other characteristics. The causality between a glycemic control strategy and DPN cannot be evaluated in this cross-sectional study, but continued assessment of DPN and randomized therapies in BARI 2D trial may provide further explanations on the development of DPN.

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Background: Vascular calcification is common and constitutes a prognostic marker of mortality in the hemodialysis population. Derangements of mineral metabolism may influence its development. The aim of this study is to prospectively evaluate the association between bone remodeling disorders and progression of coronary artery calcification (CAC) in hemodialysis patients. Study Design: Cohort study nested within a randomized controlled trial. Setting & Participants: 64 stable hemodialysis patients. Predictor: Bone-related laboratory parameters and bone histomorphometric characteristics at baseline and after 1 year of follow-up. Outcomes: Progression of CAC assessed by means of coronary multislice tomography at baseline and after 1 year of follow-up. Baseline calcification score of 30 Agatston units or greater was defined as calcification. Change in calcification score of 15% or greater was defined as progression. Results: Of 64 patients, 26 (40%) had CAC at baseline and 38 (60%) did not. Participants without CAC at baseline were younger (P < 0.001), mainly men (P = 0.03) and nonwhite (P = 0.003), and had lower serum osteoprotegerin levels (P = 0.003) and higher trabecular bone volume (P = 0.001). Age (P 0.003; beta coefficient = 1.107; 95% confidence interval [Cl], 1.036 to 1.183) and trabecular bone volume (P = 0.006; beta coefficient = 0.828; 95% Cl, 0.723 to 0.948) were predictors for CAC development. Of 38 participants who had calcification at baseline, 26 (68%) had CAC progression in 1 year. Progressors had lower bone-specific alkaline phosphatase (P = 0.03) and deoxypyridinoline levels (P = 0.02) on follow-up, and low turnover was mainly diagnosed at the 12-month bone biopsy (P = 0.04). Low-turnover bone status at the 12-month bone biopsy was the only independent predictor for CAC progression (P = 0.04; beta coefficient = 4.5; 95% Cl, 1.04 to 19.39). According to bone histological examination, nonprogressors with initially high turnover (n = 5) subsequently had decreased bone formation rate (P = 0.03), and those initially with low turnover (n = 7) subsequently had increased bone formation rate (P = 0.003) and osteoid volume (P = 0.001). Limitations: Relatively small population, absence of patients with severe hyperparathyroidism, short observational period. Conclusions: Lower trabecular bone volume was associated with CAC development, whereas improvement in bone turnover was associated with lower CAC progression in patients with high- and low-turnover bone disorders. Because CAC is implicated in cardiovascular mortality, bone derangements may constitute a modifiable mortality risk factor in hemodialysis patients.

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Background: The relationship between anthropometric indices and risk of basal cell carcinoma ( BCC) is largely unknown. We aimed to examine the association between anthropometric measures and development of BCC and to demonstrate whether adherence to World Health Organisation guidelines for body mass index, waist circumference, and waist/ hip ratio was associated with risk of BCC, independent of sun exposure. Methods: Study participants were participants in a community- based skin cancer prevention trial in Nambour, a town in southeast Queensland ( latitude 26 degrees S). In 1992, height, weight, and waist and hip circumferences were measured for all 1621 participants and weight was remeasured at the end of the trial in 1996. Prevalence proportion ratios were calculated using a log- binomial model to estimate the risk of BCC prior to or prevalent in 1992, while Poisson regression with robust error variances was used to estimate the relative risk of BCC during the follow- up period. Results: At baseline, 94 participants had a current BCC, and 202 had a history of BCC. During the 5- year follow- up period, 179 participants developed one or more new BCCs. We found no significant association between any of the anthropometric measures or indices and risk of BCC after controlling for potential confounding factors including sun exposure. There was a suggestion that short- term weight gain may increase the risk of developing BCC for women only. Conclusion: Adherence to World Health Organisation guidelines for body mass index, waist circumference and waist/ hip ratio is not significantly associated with occurrence of basal cell carcinomas of the skin.

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Objective: To describe bypass to perigeniculate vessels for limb salvage. Design: Retrospective cohort study. Material and methods: Between 1995 and 2009, 47 bypass procedures to perigeniculate collateral arteries were performed in 46 patients (15 women, 31 men; median age, 68 years). All patients presented with critical ischaemia (tissue loss in 87.5%, rest pain in 12.5%). Mean ankle brachial index was 0.27 +/- 0.17. The site of distal anastomosis was the descending genicular artery (DGA) in 23 bypasses (1 bilateral) and the medial sural artery (MSA) in 24. Proximal anastomosis was to the external iliac artery in 2 cases, common femoral artery in 23 cases, superficial femoral artery in 8 cases, deep femoral artery in 8 cases, above-knee poplitaeal artery in 2 cases, and previous graft in 4 cases. Results: There were four deaths during the immediate postoperative period. Mean follow-up duration was 27 months. Ten patients required major amputation. Mean ankle brachial index post-operatively was 0.60 +/- 0.21. At 3 years, primary patency was 74.7 +/- 7%, secondary patency was 83.4 +/- 8%, and the limb salvage and survival rates were 73.5 +/- 7% and 77.4 +/- 7%, respectively. Conclusion: Bypass to perigeniculate arteries is a viable treatment option for critical limb ischaemia in selected patients. (C) 2011 European Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.