Quantifying uncertainty in parameter estimates for stochastic models of collective cell spreading using approximate Bayesian computation

Wound healing and tumour growth involve collective cell spreading, which is driven by individual motility and proliferation events within a population of cells. Mathematical models are often used to interpret experimental data and to estimate the parameters so that predictions can be made. Existing methods for parameter estimation typically assume that these parameters are constants and often ignore any uncertainty in the estimated values. We use approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to estimate the cell diffusivity, D, and the cell proliferation rate, λ, from a discrete model of collective cell spreading, and we quantify the uncertainty associated with these estimates using Bayesian inference. We use a detailed experimental data set describing the collective cell spreading of 3T3 fibroblast cells. The ABC analysis is conducted for different combinations of initial cell densities and experimental times in two separate scenarios: (i) where collective cell spreading is driven by cell motility alone, and (ii) where collective cell spreading is driven by combined cell motility and cell proliferation. We find that D can be estimated precisely, with a small coefficient of variation (CV) of 2–6%. Our results indicate that D appears to depend on the experimental time, which is a feature that has been previously overlooked. Assuming that the values of D are the same in both experimental scenarios, we use the information about D from the first experimental scenario to obtain reasonably precise estimates of λ, with a CV between 4 and 12%. Our estimates of D and λ are consistent with previously reported values; however, our method is based on a straightforward measurement of the position of the leading edge whereas previous approaches have involved expensive cell counting techniques. Additional insights gained using a fully Bayesian approach justify the computational cost, especially since it allows us to accommodate information from different experiments in a principled way.

Do-Rank: DCG optimization for learning-to-rank in tag-based item recommendation systems

Discounted Cumulative Gain (DCG) is a well-known ranking evaluation measure for models built with multiple relevance graded data. By handling tagging data used in recommendation systems as an ordinal relevance set of {negative,null,positive}, we propose to build a DCG based recommendation model. We present an efficient and novel learning-to-rank method by optimizing DCG for a recommendation model using the tagging data interpretation scheme. Evaluating the proposed method on real-world datasets, we demonstrate that the method is scalable and outperforms the benchmarking methods by generating a quality top-N item recommendation list.

Centroid training to achieve effective text classification

Traditional text classification technology based on machine learning and data mining techniques has made a big progress. However, it is still a big problem on how to draw an exact decision boundary between relevant and irrelevant objects in binary classification due to much uncertainty produced in the process of the traditional algorithms. The proposed model CTTC (Centroid Training for Text Classification) aims to build an uncertainty boundary to absorb as many indeterminate objects as possible so as to elevate the certainty of the relevant and irrelevant groups through the centroid clustering and training process. The clustering starts from the two training subsets labelled as relevant or irrelevant respectively to create two principal centroid vectors by which all the training samples are further separated into three groups: POS, NEG and BND, with all the indeterminate objects absorbed into the uncertain decision boundary BND. Two pairs of centroid vectors are proposed to be trained and optimized through the subsequent iterative multi-learning process, all of which are proposed to collaboratively help predict the polarities of the incoming objects thereafter. For the assessment of the proposed model, F1 and Accuracy have been chosen as the key evaluation measures. We stress the F1 measure because it can display the overall performance improvement of the final classifier better than Accuracy. A large number of experiments have been completed using the proposed model on the Reuters Corpus Volume 1 (RCV1) which is important standard dataset in the field. The experiment results show that the proposed model has significantly improved the binary text classification performance in both F1 and Accuracy compared with three other influential baseline models.

Evolutionary optimization and game strategies for advanced multi-disciplinary design : applications to aeronautics and UAV design

Many complex aeronautical design problems can be formulated with efficient multi-objective evolutionary optimization methods and game strategies. This book describes the role of advanced innovative evolution tools in the solution, or the set of solutions of single or multi disciplinary optimization. These tools use the concept of multi-population, asynchronous parallelization and hierarchical topology which allows different models including precise, intermediate and approximate models with each node belonging to the different hierarchical layer handled by a different Evolutionary Algorithm. The efficiency of evolutionary algorithms for both single and multi-objective optimization problems are significantly improved by the coupling of EAs with games and in particular by a new dynamic methodology named “Hybridized Nash-Pareto games”. Multi objective Optimization techniques and robust design problems taking into account uncertainties are introduced and explained in detail. Several applications dealing with civil aircraft and UAV, UCAV systems are implemented numerically and discussed. Applications of increasing optimization complexity are presented as well as two hands-on test cases problems. These examples focus on aeronautical applications and will be useful to the practitioner in the laboratory or in industrial design environments. The evolutionary methods coupled with games presented in this volume can be applied to other areas including surface and marine transport, structures, biomedical engineering, renewable energy and environmental problems.

A new constraint handling method for wind farm layout optimization with lands owned by different owners

For wind farm optimizations with lands belonging to different owners, the traditional penalty method is highly dependent on the type of wind farm land division. The application of the traditional method can be cumbersome if the divisions are complex. To overcome this disadvantage, a new method is proposed in this paper for the first time. Unlike the penalty method which requires the addition of penalizing term when evaluating the fitness function, it is achieved through repairing the infeasible solutions before fitness evaluation. To assess the effectiveness of the proposed method on the optimization of wind farm, the optimizing results of different methods are compared for three different types of wind farm division. Different wind scenarios are also incorporated during optimization which includes (i) constant wind speed and wind direction; (ii) various wind speed and wind direction, and; (iii) the more realisticWeibull distribution. Results show that the performance of the new method varies for different land plots in the tested cases. Nevertheless, it is found that optimum or at least close to optimum results can be obtained with sequential land plot study using the new method for all cases. It is concluded that satisfactory results can be achieved using the proposed method. In addition, it has the advantage of flexibility in managing the wind farm design, which not only frees users to define the penalty parameter but without limitations on the wind farm division.

Cooperative choice and its framing effect under threshold uncertainty in a provision point mechanism

This paper explores how threshold uncertainty affects cooperative behaviors in the provision of public goods and the prevention of public bads. The following facts motivate our study. First, environmental (resource) problems are either framed as public bads prevention or public goods provision. Second, the occurrence of these problems is characterized by thresholds that are interchangeably represented as "nonconvexity," "bifurcation," "bi-stability," or "catastrophes." Third, the threshold location is mostly unknown. We employ a provision point mechanism with threshold uncertainty and analyze the responses of cooperative behaviors to uncertainty and to the framing for each type of social preferences categorized by a value orientation test. We find that aggregate framing effects are negligible, although the response to the frame is the opposite depending on the type of social preferences. "Cooperative" subjects become more cooperative in negative frames than in positive frames, whereas "individualistic" subjects are less cooperative in negative frames than in positive ones. This finding implies that the insignificance of aggregate framing effects arises from behavioral asymmetry. We also find that the percentage of cooperative choices non-monotonically varies with the degree of threshold uncertainty, irrespective of framing and value orientation. Specifically, the degree of cooperation is highest at intermediate levels of threshold uncertainty and decreases as the uncertainty becomes sufficiently large.

Fast unscented transformation-based transient stability margin estimation incorporating uncertainty of wind generation

Intermittent generation from wind farms leads to fluctuating power system operating conditions pushing the stability margin to its limits. The traditional way of determining the worst case generation dispatch for a system with several semi-scheduled wind generators yields a conservative solution. This paper proposes a fast estimation of the transient stability margin (TSM) incorporating the uncertainty of wind generation. First, the Kalman filter (KF) is used to provide linear estimation of system angle and then unscented transformation (UT) is used to estimate the distribution of the TSM. The proposed method is compared with the traditional Monte Carlo (MC) method and the effectiveness of the proposed approach is verified using Single Machine Infinite Bus (SMIB) and IEEE 14 generator Australian dynamic system. This method will aid grid operators to perform fast online calculations to estimate TSM distribution of a power system with high levels of intermittent wind generation.

Practice uncertainty: Changing perceptions

Practice uncertainty occurs when health care providers feel uncomfortable in response to unfamiliar or challenging patient care situations. Practice uncertainty is inevitable in health care, and there are many contextual factors that can lead to either good or bad outcomes for patients and health care providers. Practice uncertainty is not a well-established concept in the literature, perhaps because of the predominant empirical paradigm and the high value placed on certainty within current health care culture. This study was conducted to explore practice uncertainty and bring this topic into the foreground as a first step toward practice evolution. A shift in the perception of practice uncertainty may change the way in which practitioners experience this phenomenon. This process must start with nursing educators recognizing and acknowledging this phenomenon when it occurs.

Structural optimization approach for specially shaped composite tank in spacecrafts

This study proposes an optimized approach of designing in which a model specially shaped composite tank for spacecrafts is built by applying finite element analysis. The composite layers are preliminarily designed by combining quasi-network design method with numerical simulation, which determines the ratio between the angle and the thickness of layers as the initial value of the optimized design. By adopting an adaptive simulated annealing algorithm, the angles and the numbers of layers at each angle are optimized to minimize the weight of structure. Based on this, the stacking sequence of composite layers is formulated according to the number of layers in the optimized structure by applying the enumeration method and combining the general design parameters. Numerical simulation is finally adopted to calculate the buckling limit of tanks in different designing methods. This study takes a composite tank with a cone-shaped cylinder body as example, in which ellipsoid head section and outer wall plate are selected as the object to validate this method. The result shows that the quasi-network design method can improve the design quality of composite material layer in tanks with complex preliminarily loading conditions. The adaptive simulated annealing algorithm can reduce the initial design weight by 30%, which effectively probes the global optimal solution and optimizes the weight of structure. It can be therefore proved that, this optimization method is capable of designing and optimizing specially shaped composite tanks with complex loading conditions.

A survey: Particle Swarm Optimization based algorithms to solve premature convergence problem

Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is a biologically inspired computational search and optimization method based on the social behaviors of birds flocking or fish schooling. Although, PSO is represented in solving many well-known numerical test problems, but it suffers from the premature convergence. A number of basic variations have been developed due to solve the premature convergence problem and improve quality of solution founded by the PSO. This study presents a comprehensive survey of the various PSO-based algorithms. As part of this survey, the authors have included a classification of the approaches and they have identify the main features of each proposal. In the last part of the study, some of the topics within this field that are considered as promising areas of future research are listed.

Middle managers' uncertainty management during organizational change

Purpose This study aims to identify factors that facilitate or inhibit middle managers' experience of uncertainty management during organizational change. Design/methodology/approach The approach is qualitative and involved interviews with 40 middle managers from a range of organizations. Findings Analysis revealed that at the pre‐implementation stage, uncertainty focused on the strategic concept of the change, whereas at implementation, uncertainty related to the appropriate procedures to implement. Middle managers’ uncertainty management was found to be important in assisting their employees in the change transition. The factors identified as being either facilitators or barriers to uncertainty management focused on themes related to the design of change, communication with both senior management and their own staff, support from senior management, role conflict, and peer interaction. A model was created to link facilitators and barriers with uncertainty to guide future research. Research limitations/implications Implications for organizational change research along with practical implications are discussed. Originality/value This study provides insight into the positive contributions middle managers can make during change, along with suggesting what factors are facilitators or barriers to this positive role.

Job uncertainty and personal control during downsizing: A comparison of survivors and victims

This study developed and tested a model of job uncertainty for survivors and victims of downsizing. Data were collected from three samples of employees in a public hospital, each representing three phases of the downsizing process: immediately before the announcement of the redeployment of staff, during the implementation of the downsizing, and towards the end of the official change programme. As predicted, levels of job uncertainty and personal control had a direct relationship with emotional exhaustion and job satisfaction. In addition, there was evidence to suggest that personal control mediated the relationship between job uncertainty and employee adjustment, a pattern of results that varied across each of the three phases of the change event. From the perspective of the organization’s overall climate, it was found that levels of job uncertainty, personal control and job satisfaction improved and/or stabilized over the downsizing process. During the implementation phase, survivors experienced higher levels of personal control than victims, but both groups of employees reported similar levels of job uncertainty. We discuss the implications of our results for strategically managing uncertainty during and after organizational change.

Balancing exploration and exploitation in particle swarm optimization on search tasking

In this study we present a combinatorial optimization method based on particle swarm optimization and local search algorithm on the multi-robot search system. Under this method, in order to create a balance between exploration and exploitation and guarantee the global convergence, at each iteration step if the distance between target and the robot become less than specific measure then a local search algorithm is performed. The local search encourages the particle to explore the local region beyond to reach the target in lesser search time. Experimental results obtained in a simulated environment show that biological and sociological inspiration could be useful to meet the challenges of robotic applications that can be described as optimization problems.

The paradox of creative uncertainty in learning and teaching

In an ever-changing and globalised world there is a need for higher education to adapt and evolve its models of learning and teaching. The old industrial model has lost traction, and new patterns of creative engagement are required. These new models potentially increase relevancy and better equip students for the future. Although creativity is recognised as an attribute that can contribute much to the development of these pedagogies, and creativity is valued by universities as a graduate capability, some educators understandably struggle to translate this vision into practice. This paper reports on selected survey findings from a mixed methods research project which aimed to shed light on how creativity can be designed for in higher education learning and teaching settings. A social constructivist epistemology underpinned the research and data was gathered using survey and case study methods. Descriptive statistical methods and informed grounded theory were employed for the analysis reported here. The findings confirm that creativity is valued for its contribution to the development of students’ academic work, employment opportunities and life in general; however, tensions arise between individual educator’s creative pedagogical goals and the provision of institutional support for implementation of those objectives. Designing for creativity becomes, paradoxically, a matter of navigating and limiting complexity and uncertainty, while simultaneously designing for those same states or qualities.

Numerical optimization of soft-mold aided co-curing process of advanced grid-stiffened composite structures

The co-curing process for advanced grid-stiffened (AGS) composite structure is a promising manufacturing process, which could reduce the manufacturing cost, augment the advantages and improve the performance of AGS composite structure. An improved method named soft-mold aided co-curing process which replaces the expansion molds by a whole rubber mold is adopted in this paper. This co-curing process is capable to co-cure a typical AGS composite structure with the manufacturer’s recommended cure cycle (MRCC). Numerical models are developed to evaluate the variation of temperature and the degree of cure in AGS composite structure during the soft-mold aided co-curing process. The simulation results were validated by experimental results obtained from embedded temperature sensors. Based on the validated modeling framework, the cycle of cure can be optimized by reducing more than half the time of MRCC while obtaining a reliable degree of cure. The shape and size effects of AGS composite structure on the distribution of temperature and degree of cure are also investigated to provide insights for the optimization of soft-mold aided co-curing process.