Short-term Load Forecasting Based on Load Profiling

Load forecasting has gradually becoming a major field of research in electricity industry. Therefore, Load forecasting is extremely important for the electric sector under deregulated environment as it provides a useful support to the power system management. Accurate power load forecasting models are required to the operation and planning of a utility company, and they have received increasing attention from researches of this field study. Many mathematical methods have been developed for load forecasting. This work aims to develop and implement a load forecasting method for short-term load forecasting (STLF), based on Holt-Winters exponential smoothing and an artificial neural network (ANN). One of the main contributions of this paper is the application of Holt-Winters exponential smoothing approach to the forecasting problem and, as an evaluation of the past forecasting work, data mining techniques are also applied to short-term Load forecasting. Both ANN and Holt-Winters exponential smoothing approaches are compared and evaluated.

Short-term Wind Speed Forecasting using Support Vector Machines

Wind speed forecasting has been becoming an important field of research to support the electricity industry mainly due to the increasing use of distributed energy sources, largely based on renewable sources. This type of electricity generation is highly dependent on the weather conditions variability, particularly the variability of the wind speed. Therefore, accurate wind power forecasting models are required to the operation and planning of wind plants and power systems. A Support Vector Machines (SVM) model for short-term wind speed is proposed and its performance is evaluated and compared with several artificial neural network (ANN) based approaches. A case study based on a real database regarding 3 years for predicting wind speed at 5 minutes intervals is presented.

Use of a fluorescence-based approach to assess short-term responses of the alga Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata to metal stress

This work explores the use of fluorescent probes to evaluate the responses of the green alga Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata to the action of three nominal concentrations of Cd(II), Cr(VI), Cu(II) and Zn(II) for a short time (6 h). The toxic effect of the metals on algal cells was monitored using the fluorochromes SYTOX Green (SG, membrane integrity), fluorescein diacetate (FDA, esterase activity) and rhodamine 123 (Rh123, mitochondrial membrane potential). The impact of metals on chlorophyll a (Chl a) autofluorescence was also evaluated. Esterase activity was the most sensitive parameter. At the concentrations studied, all metals induced the loss of esterase activity. SG could be used to effectively detect the loss of membrane integrity in algal cells exposed to 0.32 or 1.3 μmol L−1 Cu(II). Rh123 revealed a decrease in the mitochondrial membrane potential of algal cells exposed to 0.32 and 1.3 μmol L−1 Cu(II), indicating that mitochondrial activity was compromised. Chl a autofluorescence was also affected by the presence of Cr(VI) and Cu(II), suggesting perturbation of photosynthesis. In conclusion, the fluorescence-based approach was useful for detecting the disturbance of specific cellular characteristics. Fluorescent probes are a useful diagnostic tool for the assessment of the impact of toxicants on specific targets of P. subcapitata algal cells.

Essays in health economics: Volume-Outcome Effect, upcoding behaviour and the evaluation of a short-term intervention program

Evidence in the literature suggests a negative relationship between volume of medical procedures and mortality rates in the health care sector. In general, high-volume hospitals appear to achieve lower mortality rates, although considerable variation exists. However, most studies focus on US hospitals, which face different incentives than hospitals in a National Health Service (NHS). In order to add to the literature, this study aims to understand what happens in a NHS. Results reveal a statistically significant correlation between volume of procedures and better outcomes for the following medical procedures: cerebral infarction, respiratory infections, circulatory disorders with AMI, bowel procedures, cirrhosis, and hip and femur procedures. The effect is explained with the practice-makes-perfect hypothesis through static effects of scale with little evidence of learning-by-doing. The centralization of those medical procedures is recommended given that this policy would save a considerable number of lives (reduction of 12% in deaths for cerebral infarction).

Associations of short-term particle and noise exposures with markers of cardiovascular and respiratory health among highway maintenance workers

BACKGROUND: Highway maintenance workers are constantly and simultaneously exposed to traffic-related particle and noise emissions, and both have been linked to increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in population-based epidemiology studies. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to investigate short-term health effects related to particle and noise exposure. METHODS: We monitored 18 maintenance workers, during as many as five 24-hour periods from a total of 50 observation days. We measured their exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5), ultrafine particles, noise, and the cardiopulmonary health endpoints: blood pressure, pro-inflammatory and pro-thrombotic markers in the blood, lung function and fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) measured approximately 15 hours post-work. Heart rate variability was assessed during a sleep period approximately 10 hours post-work. RESULTS: PM2.5 exposure was significantly associated with C-reactive protein and serum amyloid A, and negatively associated with tumor necrosis factor α. None of the particle metrics were significantly associated with von Willebrand factor or tissue factor expression. PM2.5 and work noise were associated with markers of increased heart rate variability, and with increased HF and LF power. Systolic and diastolic blood pressure on the following morning were significantly associated with noise exposure after work, and non-significantly associated with PM2.5. We observed no significant associations between any of the exposures and lung function or FeNO. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that exposure to particles and noise during highway maintenance work might pose a cardiovascular health risk. Actions to reduce these exposures could lead to better health for this population of workers.

Diagnostic yield of short-term video-EEG monitoring for epilepsy and PNESs: a European assessment.

INTRODUCTION: Although long-term video-EEG monitoring (LVEM) is routinely used to investigate paroxysmal events, short-term video-EEG monitoring (SVEM) lasting <24 h is increasingly recognized as a cost-effective tool. Since, however, relatively few studies addressed the yield of SVEM among different diagnostic groups, we undertook the present study to investigate this aspect. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 226 consecutive SVEM recordings over 6 years. All patients were referred because routine EEGs were inconclusive. Patients were classified into 3 suspected diagnostic groups: (1) group with epileptic seizures, (2) group with psychogenic nonepileptic seizures (PNESs), and (3) group with other or undetermined diagnoses. We assessed recording lengths, interictal epileptiform discharges, epileptic seizures, PNESs, and the definitive diagnoses obtained after SVEM. RESULTS: The mean age was 34 (±18.7) years, and the median recording length was 18.6 h. Among the 226 patients, 127 referred for suspected epilepsy - 73 had a diagnosis of epilepsy, none had a diagnosis of PNESs, and 54 had other or undetermined diagnoses post-SVEM. Of the 24 patients with pre-SVEM suspected PNESs, 1 had epilepsy, 12 had PNESs, and 11 had other or undetermined diagnoses. Of the 75 patients with other diagnoses pre-SVEM, 17 had epilepsy, 11 had PNESs, and 47 had other or undetermined diagnoses. After SVEM, 15 patients had definite diagnoses other than epilepsy or PNESs, while in 96 patients, diagnosis remained unclear. Overall, a definitive diagnosis could be reached in 129/226 (57%) patients. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that in nearly 3/5 patients without a definitive diagnosis after routine EEG, SVEM allowed us to reach a diagnosis. This procedure should be encouraged in this setting, given its time-effectiveness compared with LVEM.

Perturbing the impulse activity of a single identified neuron augments the formation of long-term memory in a molluscan semi-intact preparation /

The aim of this study was to investigate the neural correlates of operant conditioning in a semi-intact preparation of the pond snail, Lymnaea stagnalis. Lymnaea learns, via operant conditioning, to reduce its aerial respiratory behaviour in response to an aversive tactile stimulus to its open pneumostome. This thesis demonstrates the successful conditioning of na'ive semiintact preparations to show learning in the dish. Furthermore, these conditioned preparations show long-term memory that persists for at least 18 hours. As the neurons that generate this behaviour have been previously identified I can, for the first time, monitor neural activity during both learning and long-term memory consolidation in the same preparation. In particular, I record from the respiratory neuron Right Pedal Dorsal 1 (RPeD 1) which is part of the respiratory central pattern generator. In this study, I demonstrate that preventing RPeDl impulse activity between training sessions reduces the number of sessions needed to produce long-term memory in the present semi-intact preparation.

The role of retinoic acid in long-term memory formation and synaptic plasticity in the mollusc Lymnaea stagnalis

The active metabolite of vitamin A, retinoic acid (RA), is involved in memory formation and hippocampal plasticity in vertebrates. A similar role for retinoid signaling in learning and memory formation has not previously been examined in an invertebrate species. However, the conservation of retinoid signaling between vertebrates and invertebrates is supported by the presence of retinoid signaling machinery in invertebrates. For example, in the mollusc Lymnaea stagnalis the metabolic enzymes and retinoid receptors have been cloned from the CNS. In this study I demonstrated that impairing retinoid signaling in Lymnaea by either inhibiting RALDH activity or using retinoid receptor antagonists, prevented the formation of long-term memory (LTM). However, learning and intermediate-term memory were not affected. An additional finding was that exposure to constant darkness (due to the light-sensitive nature of RA) itself enhanced memory formation. This memory-promoting effect of darkness was sufficient to overcome the inhibitory effects of RALDH inhibition, but not that of a retinoid receptor antagonist, suggesting that environmental light conditions may influence retinoid signaling. Since RA also influences synaptic plasticity underlying hippocampal-dependent memory formation, I also examined whether RA would act in a trophic manner to influence synapse formation and/or synaptic transmission between invertebrate neurons. However, I found no evidence to support an effect of RA on post-tetanic potentiation of a chemical synapse. Retinoic acid did, however, reduce transmission at electrical synapses in a cell-specific manner. Overall, these studies provide the first evidence for a role of RA in the formation of implicit long-term memories in an invertebrate species and suggest that the role of retinoid signaling in memory formation has an ancient origin.

La saturation de la mémoire auditive à court terme, une étude en électrophysiologie

La présente étude vise à approfondir les connaissances relatives aux mécanismes neuronaux qui sous-tendent la maintenance de sons variant en hauteur dans la mémoire auditive à court terme (MACT), plus précisément lors de sa saturation. À cet effet, la technique des potentiels reliés aux évènements (PRE) en électrophysiologie a été utilisée. La sélection des participants s’est déroulée par l’entremise de deux expériences comportementales : l’une était une tâche de discrimination et l’autre, une tâche qui évaluait l’habileté générale des participants à réussir une tâche similaire à celle de l’expérience principale en électroencéphalographie (EEG). Les résultats comportementaux de notre tâche en EEG ont montré que la performance diminuait de façon significative plus la charge en mémoire augmentait (séquences de 2, 4, 6 et 8 sons) et que l’estimation de la capacité de la MACT mesurée par K augmentait entre 2 et 4 sons pour atteindre un plafond à 4 sons (effet plafond). Le K maximum étant de 2.84 sons, l’empan mnésique (EM) auditif semble être près de 3 sons. Les résultats électrophysiologiques ont montré que la composante électrophysiologique reliée à la maintenance de sons en MACT, la Sustained Anterior Negativity (SAN), était modulée par le nombre de sons à maintenir : son amplitude augmentait de 2 à 4 sons et ce, jusqu’à l’atteinte d’un plafond à 4 sons. Ces résultats suggèrent que la maintenance de sons additionnels dans la MACT n’est plus possible après sa saturation. Nous soutenons donc que la SAN est un index électrophysiologique de l’activité neuronale associée à la maintenance d’items auditifs dans la MACT et que son amplitude est un bon indicateur de la capacité individuelle de la MACT, estimée par K. Des résultats post-hoc ont démontré que les musiciens et les non-musiciens tendent à avoir des différences au niveau de la SAN, sans pour autant modifier l’effet de charge en mémoire. Une analyse qualitative et quantitative de l’utilisation des stratégies mnésiques ont permis de clarifier leur implication et leur nature au sein d’une tâche cognitive de mémoire, plus précisément en audition. Pour conclure, l’ensemble de ces résultats suggère également que la SAN est reliée à la maintenance de sons dans la MACT et ainsi, un bon indicateur de sa capacité.

Influence of short term climatic fluctuations on the agricultural land use in Kerala

In the present study, the land use over Kerala State and its spatial and temporal variations, spatio-temporal variations of water budget elements, climatic shifts, incidence of droughts and the influence of inter-annual fluctuations of rainfall on area. production and yield of selected crops, have been studied in detail. The thesis consists of seven chapters including the introduction. The first section of the Second Chapter deals with the importance of agrocliinatological studies in general and its application in agricultural land use in particular. It also gives an overview of the short term climatic fluctuations, water balance studies, crop weather relationships, land use patterns and various agricultural indices. This includes a detailed review of available literature in this field. The basic concepts. data used and the methodology adopted in the study forms, the second section of this Chapter. The Third Chapter gives the details of the physical features of the State such as the relief, geology, geomorphologysoils, drainage, and vegetation. The agroclimatology of the State is discussed in detail in Chapter Four. The first Section presents annual and seasonal variations of temperature and rainfall of the State along with a discussion on the water balance of the State. The secondSection of this Chapter deals with the influence of rainfall and water balance elements on various crops. The district-wise general land use pattern of theState and its spatio-temporal variations are discussed in Chapter Five. The first Section of Chapter Six gives an overview of the agricultural land use pattern of the State, cropping patterns, cropping intensity, crop combination and their spatio-temporal variations. The inter-annual variability of water balances of various stations of the State computed using the method of Thornthwaite (1948) and Thornthwaite & Mather (1955) is presented in the second Section of Chapter Six. This also includes a discussion of how the climatic shifts have occurred over the State and the influence of variations of climatic and water balance elements on the crops. The Seventh Chapter gives the summary of the work carried out and the results obtained from the study. Interpretations of the results, conclusions and suggestions made,based on the observations of the study are incorporated in this Chapter.

Short-Term Load Forecast Of A Low Loadfactor Power System For Optimization Of Merit Order Dispatch Using Adaptive Learning Algorithm

Short term load forecasting is one of the key inputs to optimize the management of power system. Almost 60-65% of revenue expenditure of a distribution company is against power purchase. Cost of power depends on source of power. Hence any optimization strategy involves optimization in scheduling power from various sources. As the scheduling involves many technical and commercial considerations and constraints, the efficiency in scheduling depends on the accuracy of load forecast. Load forecasting is a topic much visited in research world and a number of papers using different techniques are already presented. The accuracy of forecast for the purpose of merit order dispatch decisions depends on the extent of the permissible variation in generation limits. For a system with low load factor, the peak and the off peak trough are prominent and the forecast should be able to identify these points to more accuracy rather than minimizing the error in the energy content. In this paper an attempt is made to apply Artificial Neural Network (ANN) with supervised learning based approach to make short term load forecasting for a power system with comparatively low load factor. Such power systems are usual in tropical areas with concentrated rainy season for a considerable period of the year

Methods for short-term control of Imperata grass in Peruvian Amazon

The traditional control of Imperata brasiliensis grasslands used by farmers in the Peruvian Amazon is to burn the grass. The objective of this study was to compare different methods of short-term control. Biological, mechanical, chemical and traditional methods of control were compared. Herbicide spraying and manual weeding have shown to be very effective in reducing above- and below-ground biomass growth in the first 45 days after slashing the grass, with effects persisting in the longer term, but both are expensive methods. Shading seems to be less effective in the short-term, whereas it influences the Imperata growth in the longer term. After one year shading, glyphosate application and weeding significantly reduced aboveground biomass by 94, 67 and 53%; and belowground biomass by 76, 65 and 58%, respectively, compared to control. We also found a significant decrease of Imperata rhizomes in soil during time under shading. Burning has proved to have no significant effect on Imperata growth. The use of shade trees in a kind of agroforestry system could be a suitable method for small farmers to control Imperata grasslands.

Short-term poverty dynamics of rural households: Evidence from Central Sulawesi, Indonesia

The understanding of poverty dynamics is crucial for the design of appropriate poverty reduction strategies. Taking the case of Central Sulawesi, we investigate the determinants of both chronic and transitory poverty using data from 264 randomly selected households interviewed in 2005 and 2007. Regarding the US 1$/day poverty line, the headcount index declined from 19.3% in 2005 to 18.2% in 2007. However, we observed an increasing number of people living on less than US 2$/day expressed in purchasing power parity (PPP). The results of the estimated multinomial logit model applied in this study indicate that a lack of non-agricultural employment opportunities and low endowment of social capital are major determinants of chronic as well as transitory poverty in this province of Indonesia. These results are used to draw policy conclusions with respect to the alleviation of transitory and chronic poverty in Central Sulawesi.

Short-term effects of human urine fertiliser and wood ash on soil pH and electrical conductivity

The fertiliser value of human urine has been examined on several crops, yet little is known about its effects on key soil properties of agronomic significance. This study investigated temporal soil salinization potential of human urine fertiliser (HUF). It further looked at combined effects of human urine and wood ash (WA) on soil pH, urine-NH_3 volatilisation, soil electrical conductivity (EC), and basic cation contents of two Acrisols (Adenta and Toje series) from the coastal savannah zone of Ghana. The experiment was a factorial design conducted in the laboratory for 12 weeks. The results indicated an increase in soil pH by 1.2 units for Adenta series and 1 unit for Toje series after one week of HUF application followed by a decline by about 2 pH units for both soil types after twelve weeks. This was attributed to nitrification of ammonium to nitrate leading to acidification. The EC otherwise increased with HUF application creating slightly saline conditions in Toje series and non-saline conditions in Adenta series. When WA was applied with HUF, both soil pH and EC increased. In contrast, the HUF alone slightly salinized Toje series, but both soils remained non-saline whenWA and HUF were applied together. The application ofWA resulted in two-fold increase in Ca, Mg, K, and Na content compared to HUF alone. Hence, WA is a promising amendment of acid soils and could reduce the effect of soluble salts in human urine fertilizer, which is likely to cause soil salinity.

Biochar improves fertility of a clay soil in the Brazilian Savannah: short term effects and impact on rice yield

The objective of this study was to report single season effects of wood biochar (char) application coupled with N fertilization on soil chemical properties, aerobic rice growth and grain yield in a clayey Rhodic Ferralsol in the Brazilian Savannah. Char application effected an increase in soil pH, K, Ca, Mg, CEC, Mn and nitrate while decreasing Al content and potential acidity of soils. No distinct effect of char application on grain yield of aerobic rice was observed. We believe that soil properties impacted by char application were inconsequential for rice yields because neither water, low pH, nor the availability of K or P were limiting factors for rice production. Rate of char above 16 Mg ha^(−1) reduced leaf area index and total shoot dry matter by 72 days after sowing. The number of panicles infected by rice blast decreased with increasing char rate. Increased dry matter beyond the remobilization capacity of the crop, and high number of panicles infected by rice blast were the likely cause of the lower grain yield observed when more than 60 kg N ha^(−1) was applied. The optimal rate of N was 46 kg ha^(−1) and resulted in a rice grain yield above 3 Mg ha^(−1).