Seasonal dynamics of the carbonate system in the Western English Channel

We present over 900 carbonate system observations collected over four years (2007–2010) in the Western English Channel (WEC). We determined CO2 partial pressure (pCO2), Total Alkalinity (TA) and Dissolved Inorganic Carbon (DIC) along a series of 40 km transects, including two oceanographic stations (L4 and E1) within a sustained coastal observatory. Our data follow a seasonal pattern of CO2 undersaturation from January to August, followed by supersaturation in September–October and a return to near-equilibrium thereafter. This pattern is explained by the interplay of thermal and biological sinks in winter and spring–summer, respectively, followed by the breakdown of stratification and mixing with deeper, high-CO2 water in autumn. The drawdown of DIC and inorganic N between March and June with a C:N ratio of 8.7–9.5 was consistent with carbon over-consumption during phytoplankton growth. Monthly mean surface pCO2 was strongly correlated with depth integrated chlorophyll a highlighting the importance of subsurface chlorophyll a maxima in controlling C-fluxes in shelf seas. Mixing of seawater with riverine freshwater in near-shore samples caused a reduction in TA and the saturation state of calcite minerals, particularly in winter. Our data show that the L4 and E1 oceanographic stations were small, net sinks for atmospheric CO2 over an annual cycle (−0.52±0.66 mol C m−2 y−1 and −0.62±0.49 mol C m−2 y−1, respectively).

Volcanic ash fuels anomalous plankton bloom in subarctic northeast Pacific

Using multiple lines of evidence, we demonstrate that volcanic ash deposition in August 2008 initiated one of the largest phytoplankton blooms observed in the subarctic North Pacific. Unusually widespread transport from a volcanic eruption in the Aleutian Islands, Alaska deposited ash over much of the subarctic NE Pacific, followed by large increases in satellite chlorophyll. Surface ocean pCO2, pH, and fluorescence reveal that the bloom started a few days after ashfall. Ship-based measurements showed increased dominance by diatoms. This evidence points toward fertilization of this normally iron-limited region by ash, a relatively new mechanism proposed for iron supply to the ocean. The observations do not support other possible mechanisms. Extrapolation of the pCO2 data to the area of the bloom suggests a modest ∼0.01 Pg carbon export from this event, implying that even large-scale iron fertilization at an optimum time of year is not very efficient at sequestering atmospheric CO2.

The impact of ocean acidification and warming on the skeletal mechanical properties of the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus from laboratory and field observations

Increased atmospheric CO2 concentration is leading to changes in the carbonate chemistry and the temperature of the ocean. The impact of these processes on marine organisms will depend on their ability to cope with those changes, particularly the maintenance of calcium carbonate structures. Both a laboratory experiment (long-term exposure to decreased pH and increased temperature) and collections of individuals from natural environments characterized by low pH levels (individuals from intertidal pools and around a CO2 seep) were here coupled to comprehensively study the impact of near-future conditions of pH and temperature on the mechanical properties of the skeleton of the euechinoid sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus. To assess skeletal mechanical properties, we characterized the fracture force, Young's modulus, second moment of area, material nanohardness, and specific Young's modulus of sea urchin test plates. None of these parameters were significantly affected by low pH and/or increased temperature in the laboratory experiment and by low pH only in the individuals chronically exposed to lowered pH from the CO2 seeps. In tidal pools, the fracture force was higher and the Young's modulus lower in ambital plates of individuals from the rock pool characterized by the largest pH variations but also a dominance of calcifying algae, which might explain some of the variation. Thus, decreases of pH to levels expected for 2100 did not directly alter the mechanical properties of the test of P. lividus. Since the maintenance of test integrity is a question of survival for sea urchins and since weakened tests would increase the sea urchins' risk of predation, our findings indicate that the decreasing seawater pH and increasing seawater temperature expected for the end of the century should not represent an immediate threat to sea urchins vulnerability.

Responses in Arctic marine carbon cycle processes: conceptual scenarios & implications for ecosystem.

The Arctic Ocean is one of the fastest changing oceans, plays an important role in global carbon cycling and yet is a particularly challenging ocean to study. Hence, observations tend to be relatively sparse in both space and time. How the Arctic functions, geophysically, but also ecologically, can have significant consequences for the internal cycling of carbon, and subsequently influence carbon export, atmospheric CO2 uptake and food chain productivity. Here we assess the major carbon pools and associated processes, specifically summarizing the current knowledge of each of these processes in terms of data availability and ranges of rates and values for four geophysical Arctic Ocean domains originally described by Carmack & Wassmann (2006): inflow shelves, which are Pacific-influenced and Atlantic-influenced; interior, river-influenced shelves; and central basins. We attempt to bring together knowledge of the carbon cycle with the ecosystem within each of these different geophysical settings, in order to provide specialist information in a holistic context. We assess the current state of models and how they can be improved and/or used to provide assessments of the current and future functioning when observational data are limited or sparse. In doing so, we highlight potential links in the physical oceanographic regime, primary production and the flow of carbon within the ecosystem that will change in the future. Finally, we are able to highlight priority areas for research, taking a holistic pan-Arctic approach.

Global carbon budget 2014

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (E-FF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (E-LUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (G(ATM)) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (S-OCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in S-OCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (S-LAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover-change (some including nitrogen-carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as +/- 1 sigma, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2004-2013), E-FF was 8.9 +/- 0.4 GtC yr(-1), E-LUC 0.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), G(ATM) 4.3 +/- 0.1 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN 2.6 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and S-LAND 2.9 +/- 0.8 GtC yr(-1). For year 2013 alone, E-FF grew to 9.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), 2.3% above 2012, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, E-LUC was 0.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), G(ATM) was 5.4 +/- 0.2 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN was 2.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and S-LAND was 2.5 +/- 0.9 GtC yr(-1). G(ATM) was high in 2013, reflecting a steady increase in E-FF and smaller and opposite changes between S-OCEAN and S-LAND compared to the past decade (2004-2013). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 395.31 +/- 0.10 ppm averaged over 2013. We estimate that E-FF will increase by 2.5% (1.3-3.5 %) to 10.1 +/- 0.6 GtC in 2014 (37.0 +/- 2.2 GtCO(2) yr(-1)), 65% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy. From this projection of E-FF and assumed constant E-LUC for 2014, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 545 +/- 55 GtC (2000 +/- 200 GtCO(2)) for 1870-2014, about 75% from E-FF and 25% from E-LUC. This paper documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this living data set (Le Quere et al., 2013, 2014). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2014).

Impacts of climate change on non-native species

Anthropogenic changes to climate and extreme weather events have already led to the introduction of non-native species (NNS) to the North Atlantic. Regional climate models predict that there will be a continuation of the current trend of warming throughout the 21st century providing enhanced opportunities for NNS at each stage of the invasion process. Increasing evidence is now available to show that climate change has led to the northwards range expansion of a number of NNS in the UK and Ireland, such as the Asian club tunicate Styela clava and the Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas. Providing definitive evidence though of the direct linkage between climate change and the spread of the majority of NNS is extremely challenging, due to other confounding factors, such as anthropogenic activity. Localised patterns of water movement and food supply may also be complicating the overall pattern of northwards range expansion, by preventing the expansion of some NNS, such as the slipper limpet Crepidula fornicata and the Chilean oyster Ostrea chilensis, from a particular region. A greater understanding of the other aspects of climate change and increased atmospheric CO2, such as increased rainfall, heat waves, frequency of storm events, and ocean acidification may aid in increasing the confidence that scientists have in predicting the long term influence of climate change on the introduction, spread and establishment of NNS.

Global Carbon Budget 2015

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2005–2014), EFF was 9.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 4.4 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For the year 2014 alone, EFF grew to 9.8 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 0.6 % above 2013, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, albeit at a slower rate compared to the average growth of 2.2 % yr−1 that took place during 2005–2014. Also, for 2014, ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 3.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was lower in 2014 compared to the past decade (2005–2014), reflecting a larger SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 397.15 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2014. For 2015, preliminary data indicate that the growth in EFF will be near or slightly below zero, with a projection of −0.6 [range of −1.6 to +0.5] %, based on national emissions projections for China and the USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy for the rest of the world. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2015, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 555 ± 55 GtC (2035 ± 205 GtCO2) for 1870–2015, about 75 % from EFF and 25 % from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2015).

Gross and net nitrogen transformation rates and availability in late summer in tall shrub and birch hummock ecosystems of the Canadian low Arctic

Climate change is occurring most rapidly in the Arctic where warming has been twice as fast as the rest of the globe over the last few decades. Arctic soils contain a vast store of carbon and warmer arctic soils may mediate current atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global warming trends. Warmer soils could increase nutrient availability to plants, leading to increased primary production and sequestration of CO2. Presumably because of these effects of warming on shrub ecosystems, shrubs have been expanding across the arctic over the last 50 years, Arctic shrub expansion may track or cause changes in nutrient cycling and availability that favour growth of larger, denser shrubs. This study aimed at measuring gross and net nitrogen cycling rates, major soil nitrogen and carbon pool sizes, and elucidating controls on nutrient cycling and availability between a mesic birch (Betula nana) hummock tundra ecosystem and an ecosystem of dense, tall, birch (B. nana) shrubs. Nitrogen cycling and availability was enhanced at the tall shrub ecosystem compared to the birch hummock ecosystem. Net nitrogen immobilization by microbes was approximately threefold greater at the tall shrub ecosystem. This was in part because of larger microbial biomass nitrogen and carbon (interpreted as a larger microbial community) at the tall shrub ecosystem. Nitrogen inputs via litter were significantly larger at the tall shrub ecosystem and were hypothesized to be the major contributor to the higher dissolved organic and inorganic nitrogen pools in the soil at the tall shrub ecosystem. The results from this study suggest a positive feedback mechanism between litter nitrogen inputs and the enhancement of nitrogen cycling and availability as a driver of shrub expansion across the Arctic.

The Preboreal climate reversal and a subsequent solar-forced climate shift

Accurate chronologies are essential for linking palaeoclimate archives. Carbon-14 wiggle-match dating was used to produce an accurate chronology for part of an early Holocene peat sequence from the Borchert (The Netherlands). Following the Younger Dryas-Preboreal transition, two climatic shifts could be inferred. Around 11 400 cal. yr BP the expansion of birch (Betula) forest was interrupted by a dry continental phase with dominantly open grassland vegetation, coeval with the PBO (Preboreal Oscillation), as observed in the GRIP ice core. At 11 250 cal. yr BP a sudden shift to a humid climate occurred. This second change appears to be contemporaneous with: (i) a sharp increase of atmospheric C-14; (ii) a temporary decline of atmospheric CO2; and (iii) an increase in the GRIP Be-10 flux. The close correspondence with excursions of cosmogenic nuclides points to a decline in solar activity, which may have forced the changes in climate and vegetation at around 11 250 cal. yr BP. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

4 ◦C and beyond: what did this mean for biodiversity in the past?

How do the predicted climatic changes (IPCC, 2007) for the next century compare in magnitude and rate to those that Earth has previously encountered? Are there comparable intervals of rapid rates of temperature change, sea-level rise and levels of atmospheric CO2 that can be used as analogues to assess possible biotic responses to future change? Or are we stepping into the great unknown? This perspective article focuses on intervals in time in the fossil record when atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased up to 1200 ppmv, temperatures in mid- to high-latitudes increased by greater than 4 ?C within 60 years, and sea levels rose by up to 3 m higher than present. For these intervals in time, case studies of past biotic responses are presented to demonstrate the scale and impact of the magnitude and rate of such climate changes on biodiversity. We argue that although the underlying mechanisms responsible for these past changes in climate were very different (i.e. natural processes rather than anthropogenic), the rates and magnitude of climate change are similar to those predicted for the future and therefore potentially relevant to understanding future biotic response. What emerges from these past records is evidence for rapid community turnover, migrations, development of novel ecosystems and thresholds from one stable ecosystem state to another, but there is very little evidence for broad-scale extinctions due to a warming world. Based on this evidence from the fossil record, we make four recommendations for future climate-change integrated conservation strategies.

Synchronous records of pCO2 and Δ14C suggest rapid, ocean-derived pCO2 fluctuations at the onset of Younger Dryas

Just before the onset of the Younger Dryas (YD) cold event, several stomatal proxy-based pCO2 records have shown a sharp increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration (pCO2) of between ca 50 and 100 ppm, followed by a rapid decrease of similar or even larger magnitude. Here we compare one of these records, a high-resolution pCO2 record from southern Sweden, with the IntCal13 record of radiocarbon (Δ14C). The two records show broadly synchronous fluctuations at the YD onset. Specifically, the IntCal13 record documents decreasing Δ14C just before the YD onset when pCO2 peaks, consistent with a source of “old” CO2 from the deep ocean. We propose that this fluctuation occurred due to a major ocean flushing event. The cause of the flushing event remains speculative but could be related to the hypothesis of the glacial ocean as a thermobaric capacitor. We confirm that the earth system can produce such large multi-decadal timescale fluctuations in pCO2 through simulating an artificial ocean flushing event with the GENIE Earth System Model. We suggest that sharp transitions of pCO2 may have remained undetected so far in ice cores due to inter-firn gas exchange and time-averaging. The stomatal proxy record is a powerful complement to the ice core records for the study of rapid climate change.

Impacts of climate variability and extremes on carbon uptake by land ecosystems

Tese de doutoramento, Ciências Geofísicas e da Geoinformação (Deteção Remota), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2015

Satellite based productivity models across the Kuroshio extension

Senior thesis written for Oceanography 445

Characterizing the controls on surface alkalinity in Nootka Sound, British Columbia

Senior thesis written for Oceanography 445

Fungi, bacteria and soil pH: the oxalate-carbonate pathway as a model for metabolic interaction

The oxalatecarbonate pathway involves the oxidation of calcium oxalate to low-magnesium calcite and represents a potential long-term terrestrial sink for atmospheric CO2. In this pathway, bacterial oxalate degradation is associated with a strong local alkalinization and subsequent carbonate precipitation. In order to test whether this process occurs in soil, the role of bacteria, fungi and calcium oxalate amendments was studied using microcosms. In a model system with sterile soil amended with laboratory cultures of oxalotrophic bacteria and fungi, the addition of calcium oxalate induced a distinct pH shift and led to the final precipitation of calcite. However, the simultaneous presence of bacteria and fungi was essential to drive this pH shift. Growth of both oxalotrophic bacteria and fungi was confirmed by qPCR on the frc (oxalotrophic bacteria) and 16S rRNA genes, and the quantification of ergosterol (active fungal biomass) respectively. The experiment was replicated in microcosms with non-sterilized soil. In this case, the bacterial and fungal contribution to oxalate degradation was evaluated by treatments with specific biocides (cycloheximide and bronopol). Results showed that the autochthonous microflora oxidized calcium oxalate and induced a significant soil alkalinization. Moreover, data confirmed the results from the model soil showing that bacteria are essentially responsible for the pH shift, but require the presence of fungi for their oxalotrophic activity. The combined results highlight that the interaction between bacteria and fungi is essential to drive metabolic processes in complex environments such as soil.