Energy efficiency, resilience to future climates and long-term sustainability: the role of the built environment.

Just under half of all energy consumption in the UK today takes place indoors, and over a quarter within our homes. The challenges associated with energy security, climate change and sustainable consumption will be overcome or lost in our existing buildings. A background analysis, and the scale of the engineering challenge for the next three to four decades, is described in this paper.

Compliant shell mechanisms.

This paper describes a class of lightweight structures known as compliant shell mechanisms. These are novel reconfigurable solutions for advanced structures, such as morphing shells and deployable membranes. They have local, discrete corrugations, which articulate and deform to achieve dramatic changes in the overall shape of the shell. The unique kinematics are considered by highlighting examples and by performing analysis using established and novel concepts, and favourable predictions of shape compared with laboratory models are demonstrated.

Wrapping the cube and other polyhedra

An infinite series of twofold, two-way weavings of the cube, corresponding to 'wrappings', or double covers of the cube, is described with the aid of the two-parameter Goldberg- Coxeter construction. The strands of all such wrappings correspond to the central circuits (CCs) of octahedrites (four-regular polyhedral graphs with square and triangular faces), which for the cube necessarily have octahedral symmetry. Removing the symmetry constraint leads to wrappings of other eight-vertex convex polyhedra. Moreover, wrappings of convex polyhedra with fewer vertices can be generated by generalizing from octahedrites to i-hedrites, which additionally include digonal faces. When the strands of a wrapping correspond to the CCs of a four-regular graph that includes faces of size greater than 4, non-convex 'crinkled' wrappings are generated. The various generalizations have implications for activities as diverse as the construction of woven-closed baskets and the manufacture of advanced composite components of complex geometry. © 2012 The Royal Society.

Bayesian non-parametrics and the probabilistic approach to modelling.

Modelling is fundamental to many fields of science and engineering. A model can be thought of as a representation of possible data one could predict from a system. The probabilistic approach to modelling uses probability theory to express all aspects of uncertainty in the model. The probabilistic approach is synonymous with Bayesian modelling, which simply uses the rules of probability theory in order to make predictions, compare alternative models, and learn model parameters and structure from data. This simple and elegant framework is most powerful when coupled with flexible probabilistic models. Flexibility is achieved through the use of Bayesian non-parametrics. This article provides an overview of probabilistic modelling and an accessible survey of some of the main tools in Bayesian non-parametrics. The survey covers the use of Bayesian non-parametrics for modelling unknown functions, density estimation, clustering, time-series modelling, and representing sparsity, hierarchies, and covariance structure. More specifically, it gives brief non-technical overviews of Gaussian processes, Dirichlet processes, infinite hidden Markov models, Indian buffet processes, Kingman's coalescent, Dirichlet diffusion trees and Wishart processes.

Material efficiency: providing material services with less material production.

Material efficiency, as discussed in this Meeting Issue, entails the pursuit of the technical strategies, business models, consumer preferences and policy instruments that would lead to a substantial reduction in the production of high-volume energy-intensive materials required to deliver human well-being. This paper, which introduces a Discussion Meeting Issue on the topic of material efficiency, aims to give an overview of current thinking on the topic, spanning environmental, engineering, economics, sociology and policy issues. The motivations for material efficiency include reducing energy demand, reducing the emissions and other environmental impacts of industry, and increasing national resource security. There are many technical strategies that might bring it about, and these could mainly be implemented today if preferred by customers or producers. However, current economic structures favour the substitution of material for labour, and consumer preferences for material consumption appear to continue even beyond the point at which increased consumption provides any increase in well-being. Therefore, policy will be required to stimulate material efficiency. A theoretically ideal policy measure, such as a carbon price, would internalize the externality of emissions associated with material production, and thus motivate change directly. However, implementation of such a measure has proved elusive, and instead the adjustment of existing government purchasing policies or existing regulations-- for instance to do with building design, planning or vehicle standards--is likely to have a more immediate effect.

Transitions to material efficiency in the UK steel economy.

Steel production is energy intensive so already has achieved impressive levels of energy efficiency. If the emissions associated with steel must be reduced in line with the requirements of the UK Climate Change Act, demand for new steel must be reduced. The strategies of 'material efficiency' aim to achieve such a reduction, while delivering the same final services. To meet the emissions targets set into UK law, UK consumption of steel must be reduced to 30 per cent of present levels by 2050. Previous work has revealed six strategies that could contribute to this target, and this paper presents an approximate analysis of the required transition. A macro-economic analysis of steel in the UK shows that while the steel industry is relatively small, the construction and manufacturing sectors are large, and it would be politically unacceptable to pursue options that lead to a major contraction in other sectors. Alternative business models are therefore required, and these are explored through four representative products--one for each final sector with particular emphasis given to options for reducing product weight, and extending product life. Preliminary evidence on the triggers that would lead to customers preferring these options is presented and organized in order to predict required policy measures. The estimated analysis of transitions explored in this paper is used to define target questions for future research in the area.

The energy required to produce materials: constraints on energy-intensity improvements, parameters of demand.

In this paper, we review the energy requirements to make materials on a global scale by focusing on the five construction materials that dominate energy used in material production: steel, cement, paper, plastics and aluminium. We then estimate the possibility of reducing absolute material production energy by half, while doubling production from the present to 2050. The goal therefore is a 75 per cent reduction in energy intensity. Four technology-based strategies are investigated, regardless of cost: (i) widespread application of best available technology (BAT), (ii) BAT to cutting-edge technologies, (iii) aggressive recycling and finally, and (iv) significant improvements in recycling technologies. Taken together, these aggressive strategies could produce impressive gains, of the order of a 50-56 per cent reduction in energy intensity, but this is still short of our goal of a 75 per cent reduction. Ultimately, we face fundamental thermodynamic as well as practical constraints on our ability to improve the energy intensity of material production. A strategy to reduce demand by providing material services with less material (called 'material efficiency') is outlined as an approach to solving this dilemma.