The prediction of seasonal and inter-annual climate variations and their impacts on the water resources in the eastern seaboard of Thailand

The research of this thesis dissertation covers developments and applications of short-and long-term climate predictions. The short-term prediction emphasizes monthly and seasonal climate, i.e. forecasting from up to the next month over a season to up to a year or so. The long-term predictions pertain to the analysis of inter-annual- and decadal climate variations over the whole 21st century. These two climate prediction methods are validated and applied in the study area, namely, Khlong Yai (KY) water basin located in the eastern seaboard of Thailand which is a major industrial zone of the country and which has been suffering from severe drought and water shortage in recent years. Since water resources are essential for the further industrial development in this region, a thorough analysis of the potential climate change with its subsequent impact on the water supply in the area is at the heart of this thesis research. The short-term forecast of the next-season climate, such as temperatures and rainfall, offers a potential general guideline for water management and reservoir operation. To that avail, statistical models based on autoregressive techniques, i.e., AR-, ARIMA- and ARIMAex-, which includes additional external regressors, and multiple linear regression- (MLR) models, are developed and applied in the study region. Teleconnections between ocean states and the local climate are investigated and used as extra external predictors in the ARIMAex- and the MLR-model and shown to enhance the accuracy of the short-term predictions significantly. However, as the ocean state – local climate teleconnective relationships provide only a one- to four-month ahead lead time, the ocean state indices can support only a one-season-ahead forecast. Hence, GCM- climate predictors are also suggested as an additional predictor-set for a more reliable and somewhat longer short-term forecast. For the preparation of “pre-warning” information for up-coming possible future climate change with potential adverse hydrological impacts in the study region, the long-term climate prediction methodology is applied. The latter is based on the downscaling of climate predictions from several single- and multi-domain GCMs, using the two well-known downscaling methods SDSM and LARS-WG and a newly developed MLR-downscaling technique that allows the incorporation of a multitude of monthly or daily climate predictors from one- or several (multi-domain) parent GCMs. The numerous downscaling experiments indicate that the MLR- method is more accurate than SDSM and LARS-WG in predicting the recent past 20th-century (1971-2000) long-term monthly climate in the region. The MLR-model is, consequently, then employed to downscale 21st-century GCM- climate predictions under SRES-scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. However, since the hydrological watershed model requires daily-scale climate input data, a new stochastic daily climate generator is developed to rescale monthly observed or predicted climate series to daily series, while adhering to the statistical and geospatial distributional attributes of observed (past) daily climate series in the calibration phase. Employing this daily climate generator, 30 realizations of future daily climate series from downscaled monthly GCM-climate predictor sets are produced and used as input in the SWAT- distributed watershed model, to simulate future streamflow and other hydrological water budget components in the study region in a multi-realization manner. In addition to a general examination of the future changes of the hydrological regime in the KY-basin, potential future changes of the water budgets of three main reservoirs in the basin are analysed, as these are a major source of water supply in the study region. The results of the long-term 21st-century downscaled climate predictions provide evidence that, compared with the past 20th-reference period, the future climate in the study area will be more extreme, particularly, for SRES A1B. Thus, the temperatures will be higher and exhibit larger fluctuations. Although the future intensity of the rainfall is nearly constant, its spatial distribution across the region is partially changing. There is further evidence that the sequential rainfall occurrence will be decreased, so that short periods of high intensities will be followed by longer dry spells. This change in the sequential rainfall pattern will also lead to seasonal reductions of the streamflow and seasonal changes (decreases) of the water storage in the reservoirs. In any case, these predicted future climate changes with their hydrological impacts should encourage water planner and policy makers to develop adaptation strategies to properly handle the future water supply in this area, following the guidelines suggested in this study.

Understanding safety and production risks in rail engineering planning and protection

Much of the published human factors work on risk is to do with safety and within this is concerned with prediction and analysis of human error and with human reliability assessment. Less has been published on human factors contributions to understanding and managing project, business, engineering and other forms of risk and still less jointly assessing risk to do with broad issues of ‘safety’ and broad issues of ‘production’ or ‘performance’. This paper contains a general commentary on human factors and assessment of risk of various kinds, in the context of the aims of ergonomics and concerns about being too risk averse. The paper then describes a specific project, in rail engineering, where the notion of a human factors case has been employed to analyse engineering functions and related human factors issues. A human factors issues register for potential system disturbances has been developed, prior to a human factors risk assessment, which jointly covers safety and production (engineering delivery) concerns. The paper concludes with a commentary on the potential relevance of a resilience engineering perspective to understanding rail engineering systems risk. Design, planning and management of complex systems will increasingly have to address the issue of making trade-offs between safety and production, and ergonomics should be central to this. The paper addresses the relevant issues and does so in an under-published domain – rail systems engineering work.

Comparative academic performance of lifelong learners in engineering and technology

The engineering-technologist degree is an important element of continuing engineering education for many members of the engineering workforce. This paper reports on the study of close to 9000 unit enrolments to gain an objective understanding of the withdrawal, persistence, and academic-performance characteristics of both engineering-technologist and professional-engineering students.

Aligning students and staff perspectives in an engineering design curriculum

This paper focuses on the alignment of students and staff perspectives in an engineering design curriculum. Deakin University recognised the importance of student learning with engagement in design-centred education. Staff across the university are committed to ensure that students are engaged at a fairly deep learning level. Engaging students is an important aspect of learning and teaching process because it enhances the student to be self directed active learners. To measure the student engagement and staff experiences in learning and teaching process, Deakin engineering has used design based learning as one of its engineering learning principle. This study examines students perceptions of DBL in their curriculum through a paper based survey given to a cohort of senior year undergraduate engineering students. The research also illustrates the staff perceptions of DBL in engineering curriculum by conducting face-to-face interviews with them. From the analysed results, this research shows that the students and staff have an adequate experience of learning and teaching engineering through design based learning approach in an engineering design curriculum.

Permeability mapping in porous media by magnetization prepared centric-scan SPRITE

The ability of porous media to transmit fluids is commonly referred to as permeability. The concept of permeability is central for hydrocarbon recovery from petroleum reservoirs and for studies of groundwater flow in aquifers. Spatially resolved measurements of permeability are of great significance for fluid dynamics studies. A convenient concept of local Darcy’s law is suggested for parallel flow systems. The product of porosity and mean velocity images in the plane across the average flow direction is directly proportional to permeability. Single Point Ramped Imaging with T 1 Enhancement (SPRITE) permits reliable quantification of local fluid content and flow in porous media. It is particularly advantageous for reservoir rocks characterized by fast magnetic relaxation of a saturating fluid. Velocity encoding using the Cotts pulsed field gradient scheme improves the accuracy of measured flow parameters. The method is illustrated through measurements of 2D permeability maps in a capillary bundle, glass bead packs and composite sandstone samples.

Evaluation Of Reservoir Model Integration With Deterministic And Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasts

Due to the increase in water demand and hydropower energy, it is getting more important to operate hydraulic structures in an efficient manner while sustaining multiple demands. Especially, companies, governmental agencies, consultant offices require effective, practical integrated tools and decision support frameworks to operate reservoirs, cascades of run-of-river plants and related elements such as canals by merging hydrological and reservoir simulation/optimization models with various numerical weather predictions, radar and satellite data. The model performance is highly related with the streamflow forecast, related uncertainty and its consideration in the decision making. While deterministic weather predictions and its corresponding streamflow forecasts directly restrict the manager to single deterministic trajectories, probabilistic forecasts can be a key solution by including uncertainty in flow forecast scenarios for dam operation. The objective of this study is to compare deterministic and probabilistic streamflow forecasts on an earlier developed basin/reservoir model for short term reservoir management. The study is applied to the Yuvacık Reservoir and its upstream basin which is the main water supply of Kocaeli City located in the northwestern part of Turkey. The reservoir represents a typical example by its limited capacity, downstream channel restrictions and high snowmelt potential. Mesoscale Model 5 and Ensemble Prediction System data are used as a main input and the flow forecasts are done for 2012 year using HEC-HMS. Hydrometeorological rule-based reservoir simulation model is accomplished with HEC-ResSim and integrated with forecasts. Since EPS based hydrological model produce a large number of equal probable scenarios, it will indicate how uncertainty spreads in the future. Thus, it will provide risk ranges in terms of spillway discharges and reservoir level for operator when it is compared with deterministic approach. The framework is fully data driven, applicable, useful to the profession and the knowledge can be transferred to other similar reservoir systems.

Simulador de dano à formação, aplicado ao Projeto e à execução da perfuração de poços de petróleo

With the high oil price variability, the petroleum and the reservoir engineers are usually face to face on how they can evaluate the well performance and productivity. They can improve high productivity from the well construction to the secondary recoveries, but they have never tried a measurement in the drilling operations about the lower productivity index. As a rule, frequently the drilling operations hear from the reservoir engineering and geology that, if there is a formation damage, probably some drilling operations practices were not done properly or the good practice in petroleum engineering or mud engineering were not observed. The study in this working search is an attempt of how to measure a formation damage just from the project drilling to the drilling operations, with datum from the fields in Brazilian northeast and putting into practice a Simulator developed from the modeling on the theory offered by different experts and sources in formation damage

Biodegradation and Phytotoxicity of Biodiesel, Diesel, and Petroleum in Soil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Preparation and evaluation of the electrospun chitosan/PEO fibers for potential applications in cartilage tissue engineering

Fibrous materials have morphological similarities to natural cartilage extracellular matrix and have been considered as candidate for bone tissue engineering scaffolds. In this study, we have evaluated a novel electrospun chitosan mat composed of oriented sub-micron fibers for its tensile property and biocompatibility with chondrocytes (cell attachment, proliferation and viability). Scanning electronic microscope images showed the fibers in the electrospun chitosan mats were indeed aligned and there was a slight cross-linking between the parent fibers. The electrospun mats have significantly higher elastic modulus (2.25 MPa) than the cast films (1.19 MPa). Viability of cells on the electrospun mat was 69% of the cells on tissue-culture polystyrene (TCP control) after three days in culture, which was slightly higher than that on the cast films (63% of the TCP control). Cells on the electrospun mat grew slowly the first week but the growth rate increased after that. By day 10, cell number on the electrospun mat was almost 82% that of TCP control, which was higher than that of cast films (56% of TCP). The electrospun chitosan mats have a higher Young’s modulus (P <0.01) than cast films and provide good chondrocyte biocompatibility. The electrospun chitosan mats, thus, have the potential to be further processed into three-dimensional scaffolds for cartilage tissue repair.

Engineering knowledge-based variance-reduction simulation and G-dominance for structural frame robust optimization

[EN] This paper proposes the incorporation of engineering knowledge through both (a) advanced state-of-the-art preference handling decision-making tools integrated in multiobjective evolutionary algorithms and (b) engineering knowledge-based variance reduction simulation as enhancing tools for the robust optimum design of structural frames taking uncertainties into consideration in the design variables.The simultaneous minimization of the constrained weight (adding structuralweight and average distribution of constraint violations) on the one hand and the standard deviation of the distribution of constraint violation on the other are handled with multiobjective optimization-based evolutionary computation in two different multiobjective algorithms. The optimum design values of the deterministic structural problem in question are proposed as a reference point (the aspiration level) in reference-point-based evolutionary multiobjective algorithms (here g-dominance is used). Results including

Reservoir characterization of the Cardium Formation in the Ferrier Oilfield, west-central Alberta, Canada.

This thesis has the main aim of defining the lithostratigraphy, depositional architecture, post-depositional modifications and reservoir characteristics of the Cardium Formation in the Ferrier Oilfield, and how these characteristics can have great impact over production rates, GOR and produced fluid discrimination. In the Ferrier area, the Cardium Formation is composed by a NE prograding clastic sequence made up of offshore to shoreface deposits sealed by marine shales. The main reservoir is composed by sandstones and conglomerates interpreted to have deposited in a shoreface depositional environment. Lithofacies and net reservoir thickness mapping led to more detailed understanding of the 3D reservoir architecture, and cross-sections shed light on the Cardium depositional architecture and post-deposition sediment erosion in the Ferrier area. Detailed core logging, thin section, SEM and CL analyses were used to study the mineralogy, texture and pore characterization of the Cardium reservoir, and three main compartments have been identified based on production data and reservoir characteristics. Finally, two situations showing odd production behaviour of the Cardium were resolved. This shed light on the effect of structural features and reservoir quality and thickness over hydrocarbon migration pathways. The Ferrier example offers a unique case of fluid discrimination in clastic reservoirs due both to depositional and post-depositional factors, and could be used as analogue for similar situations in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin.

Development of the Heat and Energy Concept Inventory: Preliminary Results on the Prevalence and Persistence of Engineering Students' Misconceptions

BACKGROUND Students frequently hold a number of misconceptions related to temperature, heat and energy. There is not currently a concept inventory with sufficiently high internal reliability to assess these concept areas for research purposes. Consequently, there is little data on the prevalence of these misconceptions amongst undergraduate engineering students. PURPOSE (HYPOTHESIS) This work presents the Heat and Energy Concept Inventory (HECI) to assess prevalent misconceptions related to: (1) Temperature vs. Energy, (2) Temperature vs. Perceptions of Hot and Cold, (3) Factors that affect the Rate vs. Amount of Heat Transfer and (4) Thermal Radiation. The HECI is also used to document the prevalence of misconceptions amongst undergraduate engineering students. DESIGN/METHOD Item analysis, guided by classical test theory, was used to refine individual questions on the HECI. The HECI was used in a one group, pre-test-post-test design to assess the prevalence and persistence of targeted misconceptions amongst a population of undergraduate engineering students at diverse institutions. RESULTS Internal consistency reliability was assessed using Kuder-Richardson Formula 20; values were 0.85 for the entire instrument and ranged from 0.59 to 0.76 for the four subcategories of the HECI. Student performance on the HECI went from 49.2% to 54.5% after instruction. Gains on each of the individual subscales of the HECI, while generally statistically significant, were similarly modest. CONCLUSIONS The HECI provides sufficiently high estimates of internal consistency reliability to be used as a research tool to assess students' understanding of the targeted concepts. Use of the instrument demonstrates that student misconceptions are both prevalent and resistant to change through standard instruction.

Engineering design motivations : a qualitative and quantitative analysis of university students

What motivates students to perform and pursue engineering design tasks? This study examines this question by way of three Learning Through Service (LTS) programs: 1) an on-going longitudinal study examining the impacts of service on engineering students, 2) an on-going analysis of an international senior design capstone program, and 3) an on-going evaluation of an international graduate-level research program. The evaluation of these programs incorporates both qualitative and quantitative methods, utilizing surveys, questionnaires, and interviews, which help to provide insight on what motivates students to do engineering design work. The quantitative methods were utilized in analyzing various instruments including: a Readiness assessment inventory, Intercultural Development Inventory, Sustainable Engineering through Service Learning survey, the Impacts of Service on Engineering Students’ survey, Motivational narratives, as well as some analysis for interview text. The results of these instruments help to provide some much needed insight on how prepared students are to participate in engineering programs. Additional qualitative methods include: Word clouds, Motivational narratives, as well as interview analysis. This thesis focused on how these instruments help to determine what motivates engineering students to pursue engineering design tasks. These instruments aim to collect some more in-depth information than the quantitative instruments will allow. Preliminary results suggest that of the 120 interviews analyzed Interest/Enjoyment, Application of knowledge and skills, as well as gaining knowledge are key motivating factors regardless of gender or academic level. Together these findings begin to shed light on what motivates students to perform engineering design tasks, which can be applied for better recruitment and retention in university programs.