Bridging the gap between different statistical approaches: An integrated framework for modelling

This paper proposes a template for modelling complex datasets that integrates traditional statistical modelling approaches with more recent advances in statistics and modelling through an exploratory framework. Our approach builds on the well-known and long standing traditional idea of 'good practice in statistics' by establishing a comprehensive framework for modelling that focuses on exploration, prediction, interpretation and reliability assessment, a relatively new idea that allows individual assessment of predictions. The integrated framework we present comprises two stages. The first involves the use of exploratory methods to help visually understand the data and identify a parsimonious set of explanatory variables. The second encompasses a two step modelling process, where the use of non-parametric methods such as decision trees and generalized additive models are promoted to identify important variables and their modelling relationship with the response before a final predictive model is considered. We focus on fitting the predictive model using parametric, non-parametric and Bayesian approaches. This paper is motivated by a medical problem where interest focuses on developing a risk stratification system for morbidity of 1,710 cardiac patients given a suite of demographic, clinical and preoperative variables. Although the methods we use are applied specifically to this case study, these methods can be applied across any field, irrespective of the type of response.

Insulin resistance does not play a major role in lipid and apolipoprotein profile in obese women

Background: Obesity is associated with increased atherogenesis through alterations in lipids, among other potential factors. Some of those abnormalities might be mediated by insulin resistance (IR). Aims: To compare lipid and apolipoprotein profile between lean and obese women; to evaluate the influence of IR on lipid and apolipoprotein profile, in obese women. Methods: We studied 112 obese and 100 normal-weight premenopausal women without known cardiovascular disease. Both groups were characterized for anthropometrics and a fasting blood sample was collected for assessment of glucose, insulin, triglycerides, cholesterol (total, LDL and HDL), and apolipoproteins A-I, A-II, B, C-II, C-III, and E; IR was assessed by the homeostatic model assessment (HOMA-IR). We compared lipids between obese and lean women; we looked for correlation of those levels with anthropometrics and IR (independently from anthropometrics) in obese women. Results: Obese women were characterized by mean age=34.6±8.3 years, BMI=43.6±7.9 kg/m2, waist circumference (Wc)=117.5±15.1 cm, and HOMA-IR=4.28±3.5. Lean women (age=34.2±8.3 years, BMI=21.4±1.7 kg/m2, Wc=71.7±5.8 cm, and HOMA-IR=1.21±0.76) presented with significantly lower levels of total cholesterol (P=0.001), LDL-cholesterol (P<0.001), and triglycerides (P<0.001); they presented higher levels of HDL-cholesterol (P<0.001), Apo A-I (P<0.001) and Apo A-II (P=0.037). HOMA-IR showed no significant association with apolipoproteins. HOMA-IR was inversely associated with HDL-cholesterol (P=0.048; r=−0.187) but that association disappeared when we adjusted for waist circumference. Only triglycerides were directly associated with HOMA-IR (P<0.001; r=0.343) independently from anthropometrics. Conclusion: We confirm that obese women present worst lipid and apolipoprotein profile. However, with the exception for triglycerides, insulin resistance per se does not play a major role in lipid and apolipoprotein abnormalities observed in obese women.

Evaluating the use of in-store measures in retail food stores and restaurants in Brazil

ABSTRACTOBJECTIVE To assess inter-rater reliability, test-retest reliability, and construct validity of retail food store, open-air food market, and restaurant observation tools adapted to the Brazilian urban context.METHODS This study is part of a cross-sectional observation survey conducted in 13 districts across the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil in 2010-2011. Food store and restaurant observational tools were developed based on previously available tools, and then tested it. They included measures on the availability, variety, quality, pricing, and promotion of fruits and vegetables and ultra-processed foods. We used Kappa statistics and intra-class correlation coefficients to assess inter-rater and test-retest reliabilities in samples of 142 restaurants, 97 retail food stores (including open-air food markets), and of 62 restaurants and 45 retail food stores (including open-air food markets), respectively. Construct validity as the tool’s abilities to discriminate based on store types and different income contexts were assessed in the entire sample: 305 retail food stores, 8 fruits and vegetable markets, and 472 restaurants.RESULTS Inter-rater and test-retest reliability were generally high, with most Kappa values greater than 0.70 (range 0.49-1.00). Both tools discriminated between store types and neighborhoods with different median income. Fruits and vegetables were more likely to be found in middle to higher-income neighborhoods, while soda, fruit-flavored drink mixes, cookies, and chips were cheaper and more likely to be found in lower-income neighborhoods.CONCLUSIONS The measures were reliable and able to reveal significant differences across store types and different contexts. Although some items may require revision, results suggest that the tools may be used to reliably measure the food stores and restaurant food environment in urban settings of middle-income countries. Such studies can help .inform health promotion interventions and policies in these contexts.

Simulation and dynamics of freeway traffic

This paper presents the new package entitled Simulator of Intelligent Transportation Systems (SITS) and a computational oriented analysis of traffic dynamics. The SITS adopts a microscopic simulation approach to reproduce real traffic conditions considering different types of vehicles, drivers and roads. A set of experiments with the SITS reveal the dynamic phenomena exhibited by this kind of system. For this purpose a modelling formalism is developed that embeds the statistics and the Laplace transform. The results make possible the adoption of classical system theory tools and point out that it is possible to study traffic systems taking advantage of the knowledge gathered with automatic control algorithms. A complementary perspective for the analysis of the traffic flow is also quantified through the entropy measure.

Education for health: alcohol and young aged school teenagers

Introduction: Alcohol consumption starts at an early age in Portuguese people. Health problems and risk behavior associated with excessive consumption can be prevented or highly reduced through effective school programs. Health professionals, such as biomedical scientists, (BSc), are important in promoting healthy lifestyles through the transmission of knowledge. Objective: Explore the role of the BSc in promoting health via intervention and clarification actions, (ICA), with 9th grade students from Agrupamento de Escolas da Portela e Moscavide (AEPM) and Visconde Juromenha (AEVJ); Verify the relationship between participating in the ICA and the level of knowledge acquired from it. Methods: Behaviors and beliefs concerning alcohol consumption and knowledge about the repercussions of it in the human body, mainly regarding the liver, were assessed by questionnaire. The questionnaire was completed before and after the ICA, by the control group (CG) and the study group (SG), respectively. The answers concerning knowledge were given points, later converted to a score from 0 to 100%. Data was analyzed applying descriptive statistics and the t-student test using SPSS 20.0. Results: After statistical analysis, it was found an average score of 48.8% for SG and 46.2% for CG. The difference between groups was statistically significant only in AEPM where ICA included a practical methodology (microscopic and macroscopic observation of pork livers), contrary to AEVJ. Conclusions: BSc intervention through ICA’s improves teenagers’ knowledge. Theoretical knowledge associated with practical approaches improves the retention of information and the development of a conscious behavior about the consumption of alcohol.

Health care marketing: the theory of planned behavior applied to patients' choise between private and public providers in the portuguese health care system.

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for degree of Master in Statistics and Information Management.

Modelling and Control of Freeway Traffic

This paper presents the most recent developments of the Simulator of Intelligent Transportation Systems (SITS). The SITS is based on a microscopic simulation approach to reproduce real traffic conditions in an urban or non-urban network. In order to analyse the quality of the microscopic traffic simulator SITS a benchmark test was performed. A dynamical analysis of several traffic phenomena, applying a new modelling formalism based on the embedding of statistics and Laplace transform, is then addressed. The paper presents also a new traffic control concept applied to a freeway traffic system.

Predictive factors of mortality in burn patients

Burn mortality statistics may be misleading unless they account properly for the many factors that can influence outcome. Such estimates are useful for patients and others making medical and financial decisions concerning their care. This study aimed to define the clinical, microbiological and laboratorial predictors of mortality with a view to focus on better burn care. Data were collected using independent variables, which were analyzed sequentially and cumulatively, employing univariate statistics and a pooled, cross-sectional, multivariate logistic regression to establish which variables better predict the probability of mortality. Survivors and non-survivors among burn patients were compared to define the predictive factors of mortality. Mortality rate was 5.0%. Higher age, larger burn area, presence of fungi in the wound, shorter length of stay and the presence of multi-resistant bacteria in the wound significantly predicted increased mortality. The authors conclude that those patients who are most apt to die are those with age > 50 years, with limited skin donor sites and those with multi-resistant bacteria and fungi in the wound.

Customer Lifetime Value: a framework for application in the insurance industry - Building a Business Process to Generate and Maintain an Automatic Estimation Agent

Research Project submited as partial fulfilment for the Master Degree in Statistics and Information Management

Modelling and Forecasting Mortality Patterns

Thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Statistics and Information Management

Evaluation of the determinism of the actuator sensor interface (ASI) on programmable logic controllers (PLC), personal computers (PC) and real-time operating systems (RTOS)

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the determinism of the AS-lnterface network and the 3 main families of control systems, which may use it, namely PLC, PC and RTOS. During the course of this study the PROFIBUS and Ethernet field level networks were also considered in order to ensure that they would not introduce unacceptable latencies into the overall control system. This research demonstrated that an incorrectly configured Ethernet network introduces unacceptable variable duration latencies into the control system, thus care must be exercised if the determinism of a control system is not to be compromised. This study introduces a new concept of using statistics and process capability metrics in the form of CPk values, to specify how suitable a control system is for a given control task. The PLC systems, which were tested, demonstrated extremely deterministic responses, but when a large number of iterations were introduced in the user program, the mean control system latency was much too great for an AS-I network. Thus the PLC was found to be unsuitable for an AS-I network if a large, complex user program Is required. The PC systems, which were tested were non-deterministic and had latencies of variable duration. These latencies became extremely exaggerated when a graphing ActiveX was included in the control application. These PC systems also exhibited a non-normal frequency distribution of control system latencies, and as such are unsuitable for implementation with an AS-I network. The RTOS system, which was tested, overcame the problems identified with the PLC systems and produced an extremely deterministic response, even when a large number of iterations were introduced in the user program. The RTOS system, which was tested, is capable of providing a suitable deterministic control system response, even when an extremely large, complex user program is required.

Morphometric variability in populations of Palaemonetes spp. (Crustacea, Decapoda, Palaemonidae) from the Peruvian and Brazilian Amazon Basin

Morphometric variability among shrimp populations of the genus Palaemonetes Heller, 1869 from seven lakes (Huanayo and Urcococha, in Peru; Amanã, Mamirauá, Camaleão, Cristalino e Iruçanga, in Brasil) in the Amazon Basin, presumably belonging to Palaemonetes carteri Gordon, 1935 and Palaemonetes ivonicus Holthuis, 1950, were studied. The morphometric studies were carried out from the ratios obtained from the morphometric characters. Multivariated analysis (Principal Components Analysis-PCA, Discriminant Function Analysis and Cluster Analysis) were applied over the ratios. Intra- and interpopulation variations of the rostrum teeth, and the number of spines in the male appendix, were analyzed through descriptive statistics and bivariate analysis (Spearman Rank Correlation test). Results indicated a wide plasticity and overlapping in the studied ratios between populations. The Principal Components Analysis was not able to separate different populations, revealing a large intrapopulation plasticity and strong interpopulation similarity in the studied ratios. Although the Discriminant Functions Analysis was not able to fully discriminate populations, they could be allocated in three subgroups: 1) Cristalino and Iruçanga; 2) Huanayo, Urcococha and Camaleão and 3) Mamirauá and Amanã. The first two groups were morphometrically separated from each other, whereas the third one presented a strong overlap with the former two. The Cluster Analysis confirmed the first two subgroups separation, and indicated that the first and third groups were closely related. Rostrum teeth and number of spines in the appendix masculina showed a large intrapopulation variation and a strong overlapping among the studied populations, regardless of the species.

An ecological and comparative analysis of parasites in juvenile Mugil liza (Pisces, Mugilidae) from two sites in Samborombón bay, Argentina

ABSTRACT Mugil liza Valenciennes, 1836 is an economically important food fish and has been recommended for aquaculture in South America. A total of 278 fishes were collected in the spring and summer of 2009 and 2010. These fish were sorted into sample groups according to their size class. We used Bayesian statistics and 95% credible intervals for each parameter tested were calculated. Fish studied harbored a total of 15 different species of parasites. Diversity of parasite species found on Mugil liza was greatest at the S.R.C. collection site, but evidenced a lower species richness than at A.R. site. The 1st size fishes of both sites evidenced greater parasite diversity than either 2nd or 3rd size fish. Differences observed could be explained by the different use of habitat types at the two sites or differential susceptibility to infection by parasites. The dominance of D. fastigatainfluenced observed results of lower community diversity indexes. New works elucidating different parasite life cycles within juvenile and adults ofM. liza in Argentina, promise to be important for determining the risk of the parasitism by zoonotic metacercariae A. (P.) longa and use of this fish as food and an economic resource, and the possible use of mullet parasites in other promising fields as indicators of biodiversity, and/ or water contamination.

A cross-sectional survey of attitudes to HIV risk and rapid HIV testing among clients of sex workers in Switzerland.

OBJECTIVES: To assess attitudes to HIV risk and acceptability of rapid HIV testing among clients of street-based female sex workers (FSW) in Lausanne, Switzerland, where HIV prevalence in the general population is 0.4%. METHODS: The authors conducted a cross-sectional study in the red light district of Lausanne for five nights in September of 2008, 2009 and 2010. Clients of FSW were invited to complete a questionnaire in the street assessing demographic characteristics, attitudes to HIV risk and HIV testing history. All clients interviewed were then offered anonymous finger stick rapid HIV testing in a van parked on-site. RESULTS: The authors interviewed 112, 127 and 79 clients in 2008, 2009 and 2010, respectively. All were men, average age 32-37 years old; 40-60% were in a stable relationship. History of unprotected sex was higher with non-commercial partners (33-50%) than with FSW (6-11%); 29-46% of clients had never undergone an HIV test. Anonymous rapid HIV testing was accepted by 45-50% of clients. Out of 109 HIV tests conducted during the three study periods, none was reactive. CONCLUSIONS: On-site HIV counselling and testing is acceptable among clients of FSW in this urban setting. These individuals represent an unquantified population, a proportion of which has an incomplete understanding of HIV risk in the face of high-risk behaviour, with implications for potential onward transmission to non-commercial sexual partners.

Microsatellites can be misleading: an empirical and simulation study.

It has been long recognized that highly polymorphic genetic markers can lead to underestimation of divergence between populations when migration is low. Microsatellite loci, which are characterized by extremely high mutation rates, are particularly likely to be affected. Here, we report genetic differentiation estimates in a contact zone between two chromosome races of the common shrew (Sorex araneus), based on 10 autosomal microsatellites, a newly developed Y-chromosome microsatellite, and mitochondrial DNA. These results are compared to previous data on proteins and karyotypes. Estimates of genetic differentiation based on F- and R-statistics are much lower for autosomal microsatellites than for all other genetic markers. We show by simulations that this discrepancy stems mainly from the high mutation rate of microsatellite markers for F-statistics and from deviations from a single-step mutation model for R-statistics. The sex-linked genetic markers show that all gene exchange between races is mediated by females. The absence of male-mediated gene flow most likely results from male hybrid sterility.