Predicting potential distribution of the jaguar (Panthera onca) in Mexico: identification of priority areas for conservation

Aim The jaguar, Panthera onca, is a species of global conservation concern. In Mexico, the northernmost part of its distribution range, its conservation status, is particularly critical, while its potential and actual distribution is poorly known. We propose an ensemble model (EM) of the potential distribution for the jaguar in Mexico and identify the priority areas for conservation.Location Mexico.Methods We generated our EM based on three presence-only methods (Ecological Niche Factor Analysis, Mahalanobis distance, Maxent) and considering environmental, biological and anthropogenic factors. We used this model to evaluate the efficacy of the existing Mexican protected areas (PAs), to evaluate the adequacy of the jaguar conservation units (JCUs) and to propose new areas that should be considered for conservation and management of the species in Mexico.Results Our results outline that 16% of Mexico (c. 312,000 km2) can be considered as suitable for the presence of the jaguar. Furthermore, 13% of the suitable areas are included in existing PAs and 14% are included in JCUs (Sanderson et al., 2002).Main conclusions Clearly much more should be carried out to establish a proactive conservation strategy. Based on our results, we propose here new jaguar conservation and management areas that are important for a nationwide conservation blueprint.

Distribution of free and liposomal doxorubicin after isolated lung perfusion in a sarcoma model.

BACKGROUND: Isolated lung perfusion (ILP) with free and a novel liposomal-encapsulated doxorubicin (Liporubicin, CT Sciences SA, Lausanne, Switzerland) was compared with respect to drug uptake and distribution in rat lungs bearing a sarcomatous tumor. METHODS: A single sarcomatous tumor was generated in the left lung of 39 Fischer rats, followed 10 days later by left-sided ILP (n = 36) with free and equimolar-dosed liposomal doxorubicin at doses of 100 microg (n = 9) and 400 microg (n = 9) for each doxorubicin formulation. In each perfused lung, the drug concentration and distribution were assessed in the tumor and in three areas of normal lung parenchyma by high-performance liquid chromatography (n = 6) and fluorescence microscopy (n = 3). Histologic assessment and immunostaining with von Willebrand factor was performed in 3 animals with untreated tumors. RESULTS: The sarcomatous tumors in controls were well vascularized with fine branching capillaries present throughout the tumors. Isolated lung perfusion resulted in a heterogeneous drug distribution within the perfused lung and a consistently lower drug uptake in tumors than in lung parenchyma for both doxorubicin formulations and both drug doses applied. Isolated lung perfusion with free doxorubicin resulted in a significantly higher drug uptake than Liporubicin in both the tumor and lung tissue for both drug doses applied (p < 0.01). However, the tumor/normal tissue drug ratio was lower for free than for liposomal doxorubicin at a drug dose of 100 microg (0.27 +/- 0.1 vs 0.53 +/- 0.5; p = 0.225) and similar for both doxorubicin formulations at a drug dose of 400 microg (0.67 +/- 0.2 vs 0.54 +/- 0.2; p = 0.335). Both doxorubicin formulations resulted in fluorescence signaling emerging from all tissue compartments of normal lung parenchyma but only in weak and sporadic signaling from the tumors confined to the tumor periphery and vessels situated within the tumor for both drug doses assessed. CONCLUSIONS: Isolated lung perfusion with free and liposomal doxorubicin resulted in a heterogeneous drug distribution within the perfused lung and in a lower drug uptake in tumors than in lung tissue for both doxorubicin formulations and drug doses applied.

Spatial Exploration of Age Distribution in Catalan Municipalities

This paper takes the shelf and digs into the complex population’s age structure of Catalan municipalities for the year 2009. Catalonia is a very heterogeneous territory, and age pyramids vary considerably across different areas of the territory, existing geographical factors shaping municipalities’ age distributions. By means of spatial statistics methodologies, this piece of research tries to assess which spatial factors determine the location, scale and shape of local distributions. The results show that there exist different distributional patterns across the geography according to specific local determinants. Keywords: Spatial Models. JEL Classification: C21.

An improved approach for predicting the distribution of rare and endangered species from occurrence and pseudo-absence data

1. Few examples of habitat-modelling studies of rare and endangered species exist in the literature, although from a conservation perspective predicting their distribution would prove particularly useful. Paucity of data and lack of valid absences are the probable reasons for this shortcoming. Analytic solutions to accommodate the lack of absence include the ecological niche factor analysis (ENFA) and the use of generalized linear models (GLM) with simulated pseudo-absences. 2. In this study we tested a new approach to generating pseudo-absences, based on a preliminary ENFA habitat suitability (HS) map, for the endangered species Eryngium alpinum. This method of generating pseudo-absences was compared with two others: (i) use of a GLM with pseudo-absences generated totally at random, and (ii) use of an ENFA only. 3. The influence of two different spatial resolutions (i.e. grain) was also assessed for tackling the dilemma of quality (grain) vs. quantity (number of occurrences). Each combination of the three above-mentioned methods with the two grains generated a distinct HS map. 4. Four evaluation measures were used for comparing these HS maps: total deviance explained, best kappa, Gini coefficient and minimal predicted area (MPA). The last is a new evaluation criterion proposed in this study. 5. Results showed that (i) GLM models using ENFA-weighted pseudo-absence provide better results, except for the MPA value, and that (ii) quality (spatial resolution and locational accuracy) of the data appears to be more important than quantity (number of occurrences). Furthermore, the proposed MPA value is suggested as a useful measure of model evaluation when used to complement classical statistical measures. 6. Synthesis and applications. We suggest that the use of ENFA-weighted pseudo-absence is a possible way to enhance the quality of GLM-based potential distribution maps and that data quality (i.e. spatial resolution) prevails over quantity (i.e. number of data). Increased accuracy of potential distribution maps could help to define better suitable areas for species protection and reintroduction.

Conservation of the Eurasian Lynx (Lynx lynx) in a fragmented landscape - habitat models, dispersal and potential distribution

Abstract: The expansion of a recovering population - whether re-introduced or spontaneously returning - is shaped by (i) biological (intrinsic) factors such as the land tenure system or dispersal, (ii) the distribution and availability of resources (e.g. prey), (iii) habitat and landscape features, and (iv) human attitudes and activities. In order to develop efficient conservation and recovery strategies, we need to understand all these factors and to predict the potential distribution and explore ways to reach it. An increased number of lynx in the north-western Swiss Alps in the nineties lead to a new controversy about the return of this cat. When the large carnivores were given legal protection in many European countries, most organizations and individuals promoting their protection did not foresee the consequences. Management plans describing how to handle conflicts with large predators are needed to find a balance between "overabundance" and extinction. Wildlife and conservation biologists need to evaluate the various threats confronting populations so that adequate management decisions can be taken. I developed a GIS probability model for the lynx, based on habitat information and radio-telemetry data from the Swiss Jura Mountains, in order to predict the potential distribution of the lynx in this mountain range, which is presently only partly occupied by lynx. Three of the 18 variables tested for each square kilometre describing land use, vegetation, and topography, qualified to predict the probability of lynx presence. The resulting map was evaluated with data from dispersing subadult lynx. Young lynx that were not able to establish home ranges in what was identified as good lynx habitat did not survive their first year of independence, whereas the only one that died in good lynx habitat was illegally killed. Radio-telemetry fixes are often used as input data to calibrate habitat models. Radio-telemetry is the only way to gather accurate and unbiased data on habitat use of elusive larger terrestrial mammals. However, it is time consuming and expensive, and can therefore only be applied in limited areas. Habitat models extrapolated over large areas can in turn be problematic, as habitat characteristics and availability may change from one area to the other. I analysed the predictive power of Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) in Switzerland with the lynx as focal species. According to my results, the optimal sampling strategy to predict species distribution in an Alpine area lacking available data would be to pool presence cells from contrasted regions (Jura Mountains, Alps), whereas in regions with a low ecological variance (Jura Mountains), only local presence cells should be used for the calibration of the model. Dispersal influences the dynamics and persistence of populations, the distribution and abundance of species, and gives the communities and ecosystems their characteristic texture in space and time. Between 1988 and 2001, the spatio-temporal behaviour of subadult Eurasian lynx in two re-introduced populations in Switzerland was studied, based on 39 juvenile lynx of which 24 were radio-tagged to understand the factors influencing dispersal. Subadults become independent from their mothers at the age of 8-11 months. No sex bias neither in the dispersal rate nor in the distance moved was detected. Lynx are conservative dispersers, compared to bear and wolf, and settled within or close to known lynx occurrences. Dispersal distances reached in the high lynx density population - shorter than those reported in other Eurasian lynx studies - are limited by habitat restriction hindering connections with neighbouring metapopulations. I postulated that high lynx density would lead to an expansion of the population and validated my predictions with data from the north-western Swiss Alps where about 1995 a strong increase in lynx abundance took place. The general hypothesis that high population density will foster the expansion of the population was not confirmed. This has consequences for the re-introduction and recovery of carnivores in a fragmented landscape. To establish a strong source population in one place might not be an optimal strategy. Rather, population nuclei should be founded in several neighbouring patches. Exchange between established neighbouring subpopulations will later on take place, as adult lynx show a higher propensity to cross barriers than subadults. To estimate the potential population size of the lynx in the Jura Mountains and to assess possible corridors between this population and adjacent areas, I adapted a habitat probability model for lynx distribution in the Jura Mountains with new environmental data and extrapolated it over the entire mountain range. The model predicts a breeding population ranging from 74-101 individuals and from 51-79 individuals when continuous habitat patches < 50 km2 are disregarded. The Jura Mountains could once be part of a metapopulation, as potential corridors exist to the adjoining areas (Alps, Vosges Mountains, and Black Forest). Monitoring of the population size, spatial expansion, and the genetic surveillance in the Jura Mountains must be continued, as the status of the population is still critical. ENFA was used to predict the potential distribution of lynx in the Alps. The resulting model divided the Alps into 37 suitable habitat patches ranging from 50 to 18,711 km2, covering a total area of about 93,600 km2. When using the range of lynx densities found in field studies in Switzerland, the Alps could host a population of 961 to 1,827 residents. The results of the cost-distance analysis revealed that all patches were within the reach of dispersing lynx, as the connection costs were in the range of dispersal cost of radio-tagged subadult lynx moving through unfavorable habitat. Thus, the whole Alps could once be considered as a metapopulation. But experience suggests that only few disperser will cross unsuitable areas and barriers. This low migration rate may seldom allow the spontaneous foundation of new populations in unsettled areas. As an alternative to natural dispersal, artificial transfer of individuals across the barriers should be considered. Wildlife biologists can play a crucial role in developing adaptive management experiments to help managers learning by trial. The case of the lynx in Switzerland is a good example of a fruitful cooperation between wildlife biologists, managers, decision makers and politician in an adaptive management process. This cooperation resulted in a Lynx Management Plan which was implemented in 2000 and updated in 2004 to give the cantons directives on how to handle lynx-related problems. This plan was put into practice e.g. in regard to translocation of lynx into unsettled areas. Résumé: L'expansion d'une population en phase de recolonisation, qu'elle soit issue de réintroductions ou d'un retour naturel dépend 1) de facteurs biologiques tels que le système social et le mode de dispersion, 2) de la distribution et la disponibilité des ressources (proies), 3) de l'habitat et des éléments du paysage, 4) de l'acceptation de l'espèce par la population locale et des activités humaines. Afin de pouvoir développer des stratégies efficaces de conservation et de favoriser la recolonisation, chacun de ces facteurs doit être pris en compte. En plus, la distribution potentielle de l'espèce doit pouvoir être déterminée et enfin, toutes les possibilités pour atteindre les objectifs, examinées. La phase de haute densité que la population de lynx a connue dans les années nonante dans le nord-ouest des Alpes suisses a donné lieu à une controverse assez vive. La protection du lynx dans de nombreux pays européens, promue par différentes organisations, a entraîné des conséquences inattendues; ces dernières montrent que tout plan de gestion doit impérativement indiquer des pistes quant à la manière de gérer les conflits, tout en trouvant un équilibre entre l'extinction et la surabondance de l'espèce. Les biologistes de la conservation et de la faune sauvage doivent pour cela évaluer les différents risques encourus par les populations de lynx, afin de pouvoir rapidement prendre les meilleuresmdécisions de gestion. Un modèle d'habitat pour le lynx, basé sur des caractéristiques de l'habitat et des données radio télémétriques collectées dans la chaîne du Jura, a été élaboré afin de prédire la distribution potentielle dans cette région, qui n'est que partiellement occupée par l'espèce. Trois des 18 variables testées, décrivant pour chaque kilomètre carré l'utilisation du sol, la végétation ainsi que la topographie, ont été retenues pour déterminer la probabilité de présence du lynx. La carte qui en résulte a été comparée aux données télémétriques de lynx subadultes en phase de dispersion. Les jeunes qui n'ont pas pu établir leur domaine vital dans l'habitat favorable prédit par le modèle n'ont pas survécu leur première année d'indépendance alors que le seul individu qui est mort dans l'habitat favorable a été braconné. Les données radio-télémétriques sont souvent utilisées pour l'étalonnage de modèles d'habitat. C'est un des seuls moyens à disposition qui permette de récolter des données non biaisées et précises sur l'occupation de l'habitat par des mammifères terrestres aux moeurs discrètes. Mais ces méthodes de- mandent un important investissement en moyens financiers et en temps et peuvent, de ce fait, n'être appliquées qu'à des zones limitées. Les modèles d'habitat sont ainsi souvent extrapolés à de grandes surfaces malgré le risque d'imprécision, qui résulte des variations des caractéristiques et de la disponibilité de l'habitat d'une zone à l'autre. Le pouvoir de prédiction de l'Analyse Ecologique de la Niche (AEN) dans les zones où les données de présence n'ont pas été prises en compte dans le calibrage du modèle a été analysée dans le cas du lynx en Suisse. D'après les résultats obtenus, la meilleure mé- thode pour prédire la distribution du lynx dans une zone alpine dépourvue d'indices de présence est de combiner des données provenant de régions contrastées (Alpes, Jura). Par contre, seules les données sur la présence locale de l'espèce doivent être utilisées pour les zones présentant une faible variance écologique tel que le Jura. La dispersion influence la dynamique et la stabilité des populations, la distribution et l'abondance des espèces et détermine les caractéristiques spatiales et temporelles des communautés vivantes et des écosystèmes. Entre 1988 et 2001, le comportement spatio-temporel de lynx eurasiens subadultes de deux populations réintroduites en Suisse a été étudié, basé sur le suivi de 39 individus juvéniles dont 24 étaient munis d'un collier émetteur, afin de déterminer les facteurs qui influencent la dispersion. Les subadultes se sont séparés de leur mère à l'âge de 8 à 11 mois. Le sexe n'a pas eu d'influence sur le nombre d'individus ayant dispersés et la distance parcourue au cours de la dispersion. Comparé à l'ours et au loup, le lynx reste très modéré dans ses mouvements de dispersion. Tous les individus ayant dispersés se sont établis à proximité ou dans des zones déjà occupées par des lynx. Les distances parcourues lors de la dispersion ont été plus courtes pour la population en phase de haute densité que celles relevées par les autres études de dispersion du lynx eurasien. Les zones d'habitat peu favorables et les barrières qui interrompent la connectivité entre les populations sont les principales entraves aux déplacements, lors de la dispersion. Dans un premier temps, nous avons fait l'hypothèse que les phases de haute densité favorisaient l'expansion des populations. Mais cette hypothèse a été infirmée par les résultats issus du suivi des lynx réalisé dans le nord-ouest des Alpes, où la population connaissait une phase de haute densité depuis 1995. Ce constat est important pour la conservation d'une population de carnivores dans un habitat fragmenté. Ainsi, instaurer une forte population source à un seul endroit n'est pas forcément la stratégie la plus judicieuse. Il est préférable d'établir des noyaux de populations dans des régions voisines où l'habitat est favorable. Des échanges entre des populations avoisinantes pourront avoir lieu par la suite car les lynx adultes sont plus enclins à franchir les barrières qui entravent leurs déplacements que les individus subadultes. Afin d'estimer la taille de la population de lynx dans le Jura et de déterminer les corridors potentiels entre cette région et les zones avoisinantes, un modèle d'habitat a été utilisé, basé sur un nouveau jeu de variables environnementales et extrapolé à l'ensemble du Jura. Le modèle prédit une population reproductrice de 74 à 101 individus et de 51 à 79 individus lorsque les surfaces d'habitat d'un seul tenant de moins de 50 km2 sont soustraites. Comme des corridors potentiels existent effectivement entre le Jura et les régions avoisinantes (Alpes, Vosges, et Forêt Noire), le Jura pourrait faire partie à l'avenir d'une métapopulation, lorsque les zones avoisinantes seront colonisées par l'espèce. La surveillance de la taille de la population, de son expansion spatiale et de sa structure génétique doit être maintenue car le statut de cette population est encore critique. L'AEN a également été utilisée pour prédire l'habitat favorable du lynx dans les Alpes. Le modèle qui en résulte divise les Alpes en 37 sous-unités d'habitat favorable dont la surface varie de 50 à 18'711 km2, pour une superficie totale de 93'600 km2. En utilisant le spectre des densités observées dans les études radio-télémétriques effectuées en Suisse, les Alpes pourraient accueillir une population de lynx résidents variant de 961 à 1'827 individus. Les résultats des analyses de connectivité montrent que les sous-unités d'habitat favorable se situent à des distances telles que le coût de la dispersion pour l'espèce est admissible. L'ensemble des Alpes pourrait donc un jour former une métapopulation. Mais l'expérience montre que très peu d'individus traverseront des habitats peu favorables et des barrières au cours de leur dispersion. Ce faible taux de migration rendra difficile toute nouvelle implantation de populations dans des zones inoccupées. Une solution alternative existe cependant : transférer artificiellement des individus d'une zone à l'autre. Les biologistes spécialistes de la faune sauvage peuvent jouer un rôle important et complémentaire pour les gestionnaires de la faune, en les aidant à mener des expériences de gestion par essai. Le cas du lynx en Suisse est un bel exemple d'une collaboration fructueuse entre biologistes de la faune sauvage, gestionnaires, organes décisionnaires et politiciens. Cette coopération a permis l'élaboration du Concept Lynx Suisse qui est entré en vigueur en 2000 et remis à jour en 2004. Ce plan donne des directives aux cantons pour appréhender la problématique du lynx. Il y a déjà eu des applications concrètes sur le terrain, notamment par des translocations d'individus dans des zones encore inoccupées.

Distribution systems of the food sector in Russia: the perspective of Finnish food industry

Finnish food producers' trade with Russia has experienced profound changes since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Simultaneously, the distribution systems of foodstuffs have changed remarkably. This study sheds some light into these changes and analyses the current situation in distribution systems of foodstuffs in Russia. In addition, the study discusses the possibilities of Finnish food producers to get more of their products to the shelves of Russian food retail stores. Before the 1998 financial crisis, the import of foreign foodstuffs was booming in Russia due to the overvalued rouble. As a result of the financial crisis, food import collapsed. The export of Finnish foodstuffs to Russia has been slowly recovering during the past few years, but in the most important product categories the pre-crisis levels have so far not been reached and maybe will not be reached. In certain product categories the growth has been only marginal. It seems that starting localproduction will become increasingly important in the future. This is further encouraged by the fact that Russian consumers favour domestic food products. Russian consumers are very price conscious and demand quality in food products. The perceived price-quality ratio is an important criterion in the purchase decision.The majority of foodstuff retail is still conducted via unorganised forms of trade (e.g. kiosks and marketplaces) but modern retail chains are developing at a fast pace in Russia. They are also expected to dominate the retail trade in foodstuffs over the unorganised forms of trade in the future. This will change the distribution systems as well. The retail chains are trying to shorten the distribution chain, similarly to what has been seen in the Western countries. This together with the strengthening of retail chains is likely to shrink the role of wholesalers, as the chains increasingly want to work directly with the producers. Many large retail chains are acquiring or have already acquired a distribution centre or centres in order to boost efficiency and control the flow of products. The strengthening of the retail chains also gives them power in negotiations, which the producers and distributors have to adjust to. For example store entry fees and retail chains' own private label products pose challenges to the food producers. In the food production sector the competition is fierce, as large Russianand foreign producers want to ensure their piece of the market. The largest producers utilise their size: they invest in big marketing campaigns and are willing to pay high entry fees to retail chains in order to secure a place on the store shelves and to build a strong brand in Russia. This complicates the situation from the viewpoint of small producers. Currently, the most popular type of distribution system among the interviewed Finnish food producers is based on a network of local distributors. There is, however, a strong consensus on the importanceof starting local production in order to be a serious actor in Russia in the future. Factors that hinder the starting of local production include the lack of local infrastructure and qualified staff, and the low risk tolerance of Finnish firms. Major barriers for entry in Russia are the actions of authorities, fierce competition, fragmented market and Finnish producers' heavy production costs. The suggested strategies for increasing the market share include focusing geographically or segment-wise, introducing new products, starting local production, andcooperation between Finnish producers. Smallness was one reason why Finnish producers had to cut down their operations in Russia due to the 1998 crisis. Smaller producers had fewer resources to tolerate losses during the period of crisis. Smallness is reflected also on trade negotiations with retail chains and distributors. It makes it harder to cope with the store entry fees and to differentiatefrom the mass of products propped up by expensive advertising. Finally, it makes it harder for Finnish producers to start or expand local production, as it is more difficult for a small producer to get financing and to tolerate the increased risks. Compensating for the smallness might become the crucial factor determining the future success of Finnish food producers in the Russian market.

The avocado fruit borer, Stenoma catenifer (wals.) (Lepidoptera: elachistidae): egg and damage distribution and parasitism

The avocado fruit borer, Stenoma catenifer (Wals.) has been a limiting factor in growing avocados over the last years in many Brazilian states. This is a result of the lack of safe and feasible management practices to minimize the fruit borer damage. The aim of this study was to obtain information on the pest biology and ecology as well as on the role of natural enemies to define strategies to control the pest. Samples were taken biweekly and consisted of 20 fruits collected randomly (10 from the upper half and 10 from the lower half of the plant) in ten plants, cv. Margarida, in a commercial avocado grove in Arapongas and Cambé regions, PR, from October/2001 to September/2002. Laboratory determinations of the percentage of damaged fruit per plant region, location and number of bored fruit sites, and the number and location of the fruit borer eggs, including parasitized ones, were performed. The results showed that S. catenifer preferred to oviposit and attack fruits located on the upper half of the trees. The majority of the eggs were laid on the fruit pedicel whereas the damage was mainly located on the lower half of the fruits. Trichogrammatids were the most constant and abundant parasitoids found in both localities throughout the study period.

A Sequential Allocation Problem: The Asymptotic Distribution of Resources

In this paper we consider a sequential allocation problem with n individuals. The first individual can consume any amount of some endowment leaving the remaining for the second individual, and so on. Motivated by the limitations associated with the cooperative or non-cooperative solutions we propose a new approach. We establish some axioms that should be satisfied, representativeness, impartiality, etc. The result is a unique asymptotic allocation rule. It is shown for n = 2; 3; 4; and a claim is made for general n. We show that it satisfies a set of desirable properties. Key words: Sequential allocation rule, River sharing problem, Cooperative and non-cooperative games, Dictator and ultimatum games. JEL classification: C79, D63, D74.

Logistics in Pump Manufacturer's Spare Part Distribution Network

Tässä diplomityössä käsitellään pumppujen maailmanlaajuista varaosa-jakelua. Työn pääpaino on varaosien moniportaisen jakeluverkon toimitusketjun logistiikassa. Asiakaspalvelussa varaosien nopea saatavuus on ratkaisevassa asemassa, jotta asiakkaiden tehtaiden käynnissäpito voidaan turvata. Työn tavoitteena oli kehittää Ahlström Pumpuille uusi globaali toimintamalli varaosien jakeluun. Tämä uusi varaosien jakelumalli on kehitetty pääasiassa sopimusasiakkaille, jotka ovat halukkaita ulkoistamaan varaosatoimintonsa. Mallia sovelletaan käytäntöön varaosien jakelussa ensiksi Suomessa ja Ruotsissa. Myöhemmin on tarkoitus kopioida mallia myös muualle. Malli on pyritty rakentamaan siten, että siihen voidaan helposti liittää muita Ahlström Pumppujen tarjoamia palveluita. Työssä koottu materiaali perustuu pääasiassa haastatteluihin, palavereihin, erilaisiin sisäisiin raportteihin, kirjallisuuteen ja itsenäiseen selvitystyöhön. Työssä on myös tutustuttu kolmen eri yrityksen after-sales- ja varaosatoimintaan.

Particle shape and orientation in laser diffraction and static image analysis size distribution analysis of micrometer sized rectangular particles

Laser diffraction (LD) and static image analysis (SIA) of rectangular particles [United States Pharmacopeia, USP30-NF25, General Chapter <776>, Optical Miroscopy.] have been systematically studied. To rule out sample dispersion and particle orientation as the root cause of differences in size distribution profiles, we immobilize powder samples on a glass plate by means of a dry disperser. For a defined region of the glass plate, we measure the diffraction pattern as induced by the dispersed particles, and the 2D dimensions of the individual particles using LD and optical microscopy, respectively. We demonstrate a correlation between LD and SIA, with the scattering intensity of the individual particles as the dominant factor. In theory, the scattering intensity is related to the square of the projected area of both spherical and rectangular particles. In traditional LD the size distribution profile is dominated by the maximum projected area of the particles (A). The diffraction diameters of a rectangular particle with length L and breadth B as measured by the LD instrument approximately correspond to spheres of diameter ØL and ØB respectively. Differences in the scattering intensity between spherical and rectangular particles suggest that the contribution made to the overall LD volume probability distribution by each rectangular particle is proportional to A2/L and A2/B. Accordingly, for rectangular particles the scattering intensity weighted diffraction diameter (SIWDD) explains an overestimation of their shortest dimension and an underestimation of their longest dimension. This study analyzes various samples of particles whose length ranges from approximately 10 to 1000 μm. The correlation we demonstrate between LD and SIA can be used to improve validation of LD methods based on SIA data for a variety of pharmaceutical powders all with a different rectangular particle size and shape.

Assessing the use of very high resolution data to predict species distribution in a mountain environment

Nowadays, Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are a widely used tool. Using different statistical approaches these models reconstruct the realized niche of a species using presence data and a set of variables, often topoclimatic. There utilization range is quite large from understanding single species requirements, to the creation of nature reserve based on species hotspots, or modeling of climate change impact, etc... Most of the time these models are using variables at a resolution of 50km x 50km or 1 km x 1 km. However in some cases these models are used with resolutions below the kilometer scale and thus called high resolution models (100 m x 100 m or 25 m x 25 m). Quite recently a new kind of data has emerged enabling precision up to lm x lm and thus allowing very high resolution modeling. However these new variables are very costly and need an important amount of time to be processed. This is especially the case when these variables are used in complex calculation like models projections over large areas. Moreover the importance of very high resolution data in SDMs has not been assessed yet and is not well understood. Some basic knowledge on what drive species presence-absences is still missing. Indeed, it is not clear whether in mountain areas like the Alps coarse topoclimatic gradients are driving species distributions or if fine scale temperature or topography are more important or if their importance can be neglected when balance to competition or stochasticity. In this thesis I investigated the importance of very high resolution data (2-5m) in species distribution models using either very high resolution topographic, climatic or edaphic variables over a 2000m elevation gradient in the Western Swiss Alps. I also investigated more local responses of these variables for a subset of species living in this area at two precise elvation belts. During this thesis I showed that high resolution data necessitates very good datasets (species and variables for the models) to produce satisfactory results. Indeed, in mountain areas, temperature is the most important factor driving species distribution and needs to be modeled at very fine resolution instead of being interpolated over large surface to produce satisfactory results. Despite the instinctive idea that topographic should be very important at high resolution, results are mitigated. However looking at the importance of variables over a large gradient buffers the importance of the variables. Indeed topographic factors have been shown to be highly important at the subalpine level but their importance decrease at lower elevations. Wether at the mountane level edaphic and land use factors are more important high resolution topographic data is more imporatant at the subalpine level. Finally the biggest improvement in the models happens when edaphic variables are added. Indeed, adding soil variables is of high importance and variables like pH are overpassing the usual topographic variables in SDMs in term of importance in the models. To conclude high resolution is very important in modeling but necessitate very good datasets. Only increasing the resolution of the usual topoclimatic predictors is not sufficient and the use of edaphic predictors has been highlighted as fundamental to produce significantly better models. This is of primary importance, especially if these models are used to reconstruct communities or as basis for biodiversity assessments. -- Ces dernières années, l'utilisation des modèles de distribution d'espèces (SDMs) a continuellement augmenté. Ces modèles utilisent différents outils statistiques afin de reconstruire la niche réalisée d'une espèce à l'aide de variables, notamment climatiques ou topographiques, et de données de présence récoltées sur le terrain. Leur utilisation couvre de nombreux domaines allant de l'étude de l'écologie d'une espèce à la reconstruction de communautés ou à l'impact du réchauffement climatique. La plupart du temps, ces modèles utilisent des occur-rences issues des bases de données mondiales à une résolution plutôt large (1 km ou même 50 km). Certaines bases de données permettent cependant de travailler à haute résolution, par conséquent de descendre en dessous de l'échelle du kilomètre et de travailler avec des résolutions de 100 m x 100 m ou de 25 m x 25 m. Récemment, une nouvelle génération de données à très haute résolution est apparue et permet de travailler à l'échelle du mètre. Les variables qui peuvent être générées sur la base de ces nouvelles données sont cependant très coûteuses et nécessitent un temps conséquent quant à leur traitement. En effet, tout calcul statistique complexe, comme des projections de distribution d'espèces sur de larges surfaces, demande des calculateurs puissants et beaucoup de temps. De plus, les facteurs régissant la distribution des espèces à fine échelle sont encore mal connus et l'importance de variables à haute résolution comme la microtopographie ou la température dans les modèles n'est pas certaine. D'autres facteurs comme la compétition ou la stochasticité naturelle pourraient avoir une influence toute aussi forte. C'est dans ce contexte que se situe mon travail de thèse. J'ai cherché à comprendre l'importance de la haute résolution dans les modèles de distribution d'espèces, que ce soit pour la température, la microtopographie ou les variables édaphiques le long d'un important gradient d'altitude dans les Préalpes vaudoises. J'ai également cherché à comprendre l'impact local de certaines variables potentiellement négligées en raison d'effets confondants le long du gradient altitudinal. Durant cette thèse, j'ai pu monter que les variables à haute résolution, qu'elles soient liées à la température ou à la microtopographie, ne permettent qu'une amélioration substantielle des modèles. Afin de distinguer une amélioration conséquente, il est nécessaire de travailler avec des jeux de données plus importants, tant au niveau des espèces que des variables utilisées. Par exemple, les couches climatiques habituellement interpolées doivent être remplacées par des couches de température modélisées à haute résolution sur la base de données de terrain. Le fait de travailler le long d'un gradient de température de 2000m rend naturellement la température très importante au niveau des modèles. L'importance de la microtopographie est négligeable par rapport à la topographie à une résolution de 25m. Cependant, lorsque l'on regarde à une échelle plus locale, la haute résolution est une variable extrêmement importante dans le milieu subalpin. À l'étage montagnard par contre, les variables liées aux sols et à l'utilisation du sol sont très importantes. Finalement, les modèles de distribution d'espèces ont été particulièrement améliorés par l'addition de variables édaphiques, principalement le pH, dont l'importance supplante ou égale les variables topographique lors de leur ajout aux modèles de distribution d'espèces habituels.

Distribution Patterns of Soil Properties in a Rural Mediterranean Area in Northeastern Spain

Soil properties on the Cap de Creus Peninsula, NE Spain depend primarily on scarce agricultural practices and early abandonment. In the study area, 90% of which is mainly covered by Cistus shrubs, 8 environments representing variations in land use/land cover and soil properties at different depths were identified. In each environment variously vegetated areas were selected and sampled. The soils, collected at different depths, were classified as Lithic Xerorthents according to the United States Department of Agriculture system of soil classification (USDA-NRCS 1975). Differences in soil properties were largely found according to the evolution of the plant canopy and the land use history. To identify underlying patterns in soil properties related to environmental evolution, factor analysis was performed and factor scores were used to determine how the factor patterns varied between soil variables, soil depths and selected environments. The three-factor model always accounted for 80% of the total variation in the data at the different soil depths. Organic matter was the more relevant soil property at 0–2 cm depth, whereas active minerals (silt and clay) were found to be the most relevant soil parameters controlling soil dynamics at the other depths investigated. Results showed that vineyards and olive tree soils are poorly developed and present worse conditions for mineral and organic compounds. Analysis of factor scores allowed independent assessment of soils, depth and plant cover and demonstrated that soils present the best physico-chemical characteristics under Erica arborea and meadows. In contrast, soils under Cistus monspeliensis were less nutrient rich and less well structured

Managing regulatory risks when outsourcing network-related services in the electricity distribution sector

Deregulation of the electricity sector liberated the electricity sale and production for competitive forces while in the network business, electricity transmission and distribution, natural monopoly positions were recognised. Deregulation was accompanied by efficiencyoriented thinking on the whole electricity supply industry. For electricity distribution this meant a transition from a public service towards profit-driven business guided by economic regulation. Regulation is the primary means to enforce societal and other goals in the regulated monopoly sector. The design of economic regulation is concerned with two main attributes; end-customer price and quality of electricity distribution services. Regulation limits the costs of the regulated company but also defines the desired quality of monopoly services. The characteristics of the regulatory framework and the incentives it provides are therefore decisive for the electricity distribution sector. Regulation is not a static factor; changes in the regulatory practices cause discontinuity points, which in turn generate risks. A variety of social and environmental concerns together with technological advancements have emphasised the relevance of quality regulation, which is expected to lead to the large-scale replacement of overhead lines with underground cables. The electricity network construction activity is therefore currently witnessing revolutionary changes in its competitive landscape. In a business characterised by high statutory involvement and a high level of sunk costs, recognising and understanding the regulatory risks becomes a key success factor. As a response, electricity distribution companies have turned into outsourcing to attain efficiency and quality goals. This doctoral thesis addresses the impacts of regulatory risks on electricity network construction, which is a commonly outsourced activity in the electricity distribution network sector. The chosen research approach is characterised as an action analytical research on account of the fact that regulatory risks are greatly dependent on the individual nature of the regulatory regime applied in the electricity distribution sector. The main contribution of this doctoral thesis is to develop a concept for recognising and managing the business risks stemming from economic regulation. The degree of outsourcing in the sector is expected to increase in years to come. The results of the research provide new knowledge to manage the regulatory risks when outsourcing services.

Salivary gland cancer in Finland: Incidence, histological distribution, outcome and prognostic factors

Salivary gland cancer (SGC) is a rare cancer. The histological classification of SGC is complex and its biological behavior highly variable: it may vary from a low-grade tumor to a high-grade and often fatal malignancy. These circumstances make this cancer a diagnostic and therapeutic challenge. Older age and exposure to ionizing radiation are known risk factors. The mainstay of treatment is surgery combined with adjuvant radiation therapy, when appropriate. In addition to the histological type, the only well known prognostic factor is the TNM classification, which describes the tumor size and the amount of metastases. This study was performed using a full population-based nationwide cohort of SGC patients and tumors diagnosed in Finland in 1991-1996. The annual incidence of SGC in the entire population was, on average, 47.7 per year. By histological re-evaluation of 237 specimens the most frequent histological types were the adenoid cystic carcinoma (n=65; 27%), the mucoepidermoid carcinoma (n=45; 19%) and the acinic cell carcinoma (n=41; 17%). The highest 10-year disease-specific survival rate occurred among patients with acinic cell carcinoma (90%), followed by mucoepidermoid carcinoma (81%) and adenoid cystic carcinoma (60%). A high volume-corrected index (VCI) of Ki-67 correlated with worse survival of patients with SGC. Computer-assisted morphometric analyses of CD34-positive vessels indicated an unfavorable prognosis for patients with mucoepidermoid carcinoma and an association with poor survival among patients with acinic cell carcinoma. A high level of expression of matrix metalloproteinase-9 (MMP-9) showed a trend for a poorer prognosis in salivary duct carcinoma, and a high level of MMP-13 and a low level of MMP-1 had a trend for a poorer prognosis of patients with SGC. A low level of MMP-7 was associated with a poor prognosis of patients with acinic cell and mucoepidermoid carcinoma.

Soil sampling intensity and spatial distribution pattern of soils attributes and corn yield in no-tillage system

Taking into account that the sampling intensity of soil attributes is a determining factor for applying of concepts of precision agriculture, this study aims to determine the spatial distribution pattern of soil attributes and corn yield at four soil sampling intensities and verify how sampling intensity affects cause-effect relationship between soil attributes and corn yield. A 100-referenced point sample grid was imposed on the experimental site. Thus, each sampling cell encompassed an area of 45 m² and was composed of five 10-m long crop rows, where referenced points were considered the center of the cell. Samples were taken from at 0 to 0.1 m and 0.1 to 0.2 m depths. Soil chemical attributes and clay content were evaluated. Sampling intensities were established by initial 100-point sampling, resulting data sets of 100; 75; 50 and 25 points. The data were submitted to descriptive statistical and geostatistics analyses. The best sampling intensity to know the spatial distribution pattern was dependent on the soil attribute being studied. The attributes P and K+ content showed higher spatial variability; while the clay content, Ca2+, Mg2+ and base saturation values (V) showed lesser spatial variability. The spatial distribution pattern of clay content and V at the 100-point sampling were the ones which best explained the spatial distribution pattern of corn yield.