Calculating the balance between water resources and water demands:an approach using risk analysis

Predicting future need for water resources has traditionally been, at best, a crude mixture of art and science. This has prevented the evaluation of water need from being carried out in either a consistent or comprehensive manner. This inconsistent and somewhat arbitrary approach to water resources planning led to well publicised premature developments in the 1970's and 1980's but privatisation of the Water Industry, including creation of the Office of Water Services and the National Rivers Authority in 1989, turned the tide of resource planning to the point where funding of schemes and their justification by the Regulators could no longer be assumed. Furthermore, considerable areas of uncertainty were beginning to enter the debate and complicate the assessment It was also no longer appropriate to consider that contingencies would continue to lie solely on the demand side of the equation. An inability to calculate the balance between supply and demand may mean an inability to meet standards of service or, arguably worse, an excessive provision of water resources and excessive costs to customers. United Kingdom Water Industry Research limited (UKWlR) Headroom project in 1998 provided a simple methodology for the calculation of planning margins. This methodology, although well received, was not, however, accepted by the Regulators as a tool sufficient to promote resource development. This thesis begins by considering the history of water resource planning in the UK, moving on to discuss events following privatisation of the water industry post·1985. The mid section of the research forms the bulk of original work and provides a scoping exercise which reveals a catalogue of uncertainties prevalent within the supply-demand balance. Each of these uncertainties is considered in terms of materiality, scope, and whether it can be quantified within a risk analysis package. Many of the areas of uncertainty identified would merit further research. A workable, yet robust, methodology for evaluating the balance between water resources and water demands by using a spreadsheet based risk analysis package is presented. The technique involves statistical sampling and simulation such that samples are taken from input distributions on both the supply and demand side of the equation and the imbalance between supply and demand is calculated in the form of an output distribution. The percentiles of the output distribution represent different standards of service to the customer. The model allows dependencies between distributions to be considered, for improved uncertainties to be assessed and for the impact of uncertain solutions to any imbalance to be calculated directly. The method is considered a Significant leap forward in the field of water resource planning.

Assessment of the impact of discharges from surface water sewers on receiving water quality

A broad based approach has been used to assess the impact of discharges to rivers from surface water sewers, with the primary objective of determining whether such discharges have a measurable impact on water quality. Three parameters, each reflecting the effects of intermittent pollution, were included in a field work programme of biological and chemical sampling and analysis which covered 47 sewer outfall sites. These parameters were the numbers and types of benthic macroinvertebrates upstream and downstream of the outfalls, the concentrations of metals in sediments, and the concentrations of metals in algae upstream and downstream of the outfalls. Information on the sewered catchments was collected from Local Authorities and by observation of the time of sampling, and includes catchment areas, land uses, evidence of connection to the foul system, and receiving water quality classification. The methods used for site selection, sampling, laboratory analysis and data analysis are fully described, and the survey results presented. Statistical and graphical analysis of the biological data, with the aid of BMWP scores, showed that there was a small but persistent fall in water quality downstream of the studied outfalls. Further analysis including the catchment information indicated that initial water quality, sewered catchment size, receiving stream size, and catchment land use were important factors in determining the impact. Finally, the survey results were used to produce guidelines for the estimation of surface water sewer discharge impacts from knowledge of the catchment characteristics, so that planning authorities can consider water quality when new drainage systems are designed.

Decision support for lifecycle planning and risk management of small-scale biomass combined heat and power (bCHP) projects in the UK

Biomass is projected to account for approximately half of the new energy production required to achieve the 2020 primary energy target in the UK. Combined heat and power (CHP) bioenergy systems are not only a highly efficient method of energy conversion, at smaller-scales a significant proportion of the heat produced can be effectively utilised for hot water, space heating or industrial heating purposes. However, there are many barriers to project development and this has greatly inhibited deployment in the UK. Project viability is highly subjective to changes in policy, regulation, the finance market and the low cost incumbent; a high carbon centralised energy system. Unidentified or unmitigated barriers occurring during the project lifecycle may not only negatively impact on the project but could ultimately lead to project failure. The research develops a decision support system (DSS) for small-scale (500 kWe to 10 MWe) biomass combustion CHP project development and risk management in the early stages of a potential project’s lifecycle. By supporting developers in the early stages of project development with financial, scheduling and risk management analysis, the research aims to reduce the barriers identified and streamline decision-making. A fuzzy methodology is also applied throughout the developed DSS to support developers in handling the uncertain or approximate information often held at the early stages of the project lifecycle. The DSS is applied to a case study of a recently failed (2011) small-scale biomass CHP project to demonstrate its applicability and benefits. The application highlights that the proposed development within the case study was not viable. Moreover, further analysis of the possible barriers with the DSS confirmed that some possible modifications to be project could have improved this, such as a possible change of feedstock to a waste or residue, addressing the unnecessary land lease cost or by increasing heat utilisation onsite. This analysis is further supported by a practitioner evaluation survey that confirms the research contribution and objectives are achieved.

Recent Fish Introductions Into Everglades National Park: An Unforeseen Consequence of Water Management?

Non-native fishes present a management challenge to maintaining Everglades National Park (ENP) in a natural state. We summarized data from long-term fish monitoring studies in ENP and reviewed the timing of introductions relative to water-management changes. Beginning in the early 1950s, management actions have added canals, altered wetland habitats by flooding and drainage, and changed inflows into ENP, particularly in the Taylor Slough/C-111 basin and Rocky Glades. The first non-native fishes likely entered ENP by the late 1960s, but species numbers increased sharply in the early 1980s when new water-management actions were implemented. After 1999, eight non-native species and three native species, all previously recorded outside of Park boundaries, were found for the first time in ENP. Several of these incursions occurred following structural and operational changes that redirected water deliveries to wetlands open to the eastern boundary canals. Once established, control non-native fishes in Everglades wetlands is difficult; therefore, preventing introductions is key to their management. Integrating actions that minimize the spread of non-native species into protected natural areas into the adaptive management process for planning, development, and operation of water-management features may help to achieve the full suite of objectives for Everglades restoration.

Water Governance in Haiti: An Assessment of Laws and Institutional Capacities

The Republic of Haiti struggles to sustainably manage its water resources. Public health is compromised by low levels of water supply, sanitation, and hygiene, and water resources are often contaminated and unsustainably allocated. While poor governance is often blamed for these shortcomings, the laws and institutions regulating water resources in Haiti are poorly understood, especially by the international community. This study brings together and analyzes Haitian water laws, assesses institutional capacities, and provides a case study of water management in northern Haiti in order to provide a more complete picture of the sector. Funded by the Inter-American Development Bank as part of the Water Availability, Quality and Integrated Water Resources Management in Northern Haiti (HA-T1179) Project, this study took place from January-July 2015, with the help of local experts and participating stakeholders. The results indicate that Haiti’s water law framework is highly fragmented, with overlapping mandates and little coordination between ministries at the national level, and ambiguous but unrealistic roles for subnational governments. A capacity assessment of institutions in northern Haiti illustrates that while local stakeholders are engaged, human and financial resources are insufficient to carry out statutory responsibilities. The findings suggest that water resources management planning should engage local governments and community fixtures while supplementing capacities with national or international support.

Environmental Impacts of the Deep-Water Oil and Gas Industry : A Review to Guide Management Strategies

The authors would like to thank the leadership of the Deep Ocean Stewardship Initiative (DOSI), including Lisa Levin, Maria Baker, and Kristina Gjerde, for their support in developing this review. This work evolved from a meeting of the DOSI Oil and Gas working group supported by the J.M. Kaplan Fund, and associated with the Deep-Sea Biology Symposium in Aveiro, Portugal in September 2015. The members of the Oil and Gas working group that contributed to our discussions at that meeting or through the listserve are acknowledged for their contributions to this work. We would also like to thank the three reviewers and the editor who provided valuable comments and insight into the work presented here. DJ and AD were supported by funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the MERCES (Marine Ecosystem Restoration in Changing European Seas) project, grant agreement No 689518. AB was supported by CNPq grants 301412/2013-8 and 200504/2015-0. LH acknowledges funding provided by a Natural Environment Research Council grant (NE/L008181/1). This output reflects only the authors' views and the funders cannot be held responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein.

Troubled Waters Ahead: An Evaluation of Shoreline Land Use Policies for Water Quality Protection in Renfrew County, Ontario

Increases in the rate and extent of lakeshore development along inland lakes in Ontario are adversely impacting water quality. Despite growing awareness, there is a lack of knowledge about the land use policies and tools in place to protect inland lakes in rural Ontario. This research evaluated official plans for water quality protection policies for inland lakes in the County of Renfrew, Ontario to address this gap. The findings suggest that municipalities implicitly link water quality to land use planning policy and fail to incorporate innovative methods to protect water quality.

CT Image Electron Density Quantification in Regions with Metal Implants: Implications for Radiotherapy Treatment Planning

In radiotherapy planning, computed tomography (CT) images are used to quantify the electron density of tissues and provide spatial anatomical information. Treatment planning systems use these data to calculate the expected spatial distribution of absorbed dose in a patient. CT imaging is complicated by the presence of metal implants which cause increased image noise, produce artifacts throughout the image and can exceed the available range of CT number values within the implant, perturbing electron density estimates in the image. Furthermore, current dose calculation algorithms do not accurately model radiation transport at metal-tissue interfaces. Combined, these issues adversely affect the accuracy of dose calculations in the vicinity of metal implants. As the number of patients with orthopedic and dental implants grows, so does the need to deliver safe and effective radiotherapy treatments in the presence of implants. The Medical Physics group at the Cancer Centre of Southeastern Ontario and Queen's University has developed a Cobalt-60 CT system that is relatively insensitive to metal artifacts due to the high energy, nearly monoenergetic Cobalt-60 photon beam. Kilovoltage CT (kVCT) images, including images corrected using a commercial metal artifact reduction tool, were compared to Cobalt-60 CT images throughout the treatment planning process, from initial imaging through to dose calculation. An effective metal artifact reduction algorithm was also implemented for the Cobalt-60 CT system. Electron density maps derived from the same kVCT and Cobalt-60 CT images indicated the impact of image artifacts on estimates of photon attenuation for treatment planning applications. Measurements showed that truncation of CT number data in kVCT images produced significant mischaracterization of the electron density of metals. Dose measurements downstream of metal inserts in a water phantom were compared to dose data calculated using CT images from kVCT and Cobalt-60 systems with and without artifact correction. The superior accuracy of electron density data derived from Cobalt-60 images compared to kVCT images produced calculated dose with far better agreement with measured results. These results indicated that dose calculation errors from metal image artifacts are primarily due to misrepresentation of electron density within metals rather than artifacts surrounding the implants.

New Principles in Planning Evaluation

Maintaining and enhancing living conditions in cities through a combination of physical planning and environmental management is a newly emerging focus of governments around the world. For example, local governments seek to insulate sensitive land uses such as residential areas from environmentally intrusive activities such as major transport facilities and manufacturing. Regional governments protect water quality and natural habitat by enforcing pollution controls and regulating the location of growth. Some national governments fund acquisition of strategically important sites, facilitate the renewal of brown fields, and even develop integrated environmental quality plans. This book provides recently developed and tested methods for assessing the strengths and weaknesses of planning and policy options. Several contributions focus on new substantive areas of concern in planning evaluation, including environmental justice and sustainable urban development. Applications of evaluation in several planning contexts are demonstrated, and special problems that these pose are assessed. Several chapters address how to communicate the process and results to several stakeholder groups, and how to engage these groups in the evaluation process. Each chapter employs a realworld case in practice, thus dealing with the complexity of applying planning evaluation, and providing practical advice useful in similar situations.

Between adaptability and the urge to control: making long-term water policies in the Netherlands

Triggered by recent flood catastrophes and increasing concerns about climate change, scientists as well as policy makers increasingly call for making long-term water policies to enable a transformation towards flood resilience. A key question is how to make these long-term policies adaptive so that they are able to deal with uncertainties and changing circumstances. The paper proposes three conditions for making long-term water policies adaptive, which are then used to evaluate a new Dutch water policy approach called ‘Adaptive Delta Management’. Analysing this national policy approach and its translation to the Rotterdam region reveals that Dutch policymakers are torn between adaptability and the urge to control. Reflecting on this dilemma, the paper suggests a stronger focus on monitoring and learning to strengthen the adaptability of long-term water policies. Moreover, increasing the adaptive capacity of society also requires a stronger engagement with local stakeholders including citizens and businesses.