922 resultados para volatility term structure
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Research detailing the normal vascular adaptions to high altitude is minimal and often confounded by pathology (e.g. chronic mountain sickness) and methodological issues. We examined vascular function and structure in: (1) healthy lowlanders during acute hypoxia and prolonged (∼2 weeks) exposure to high altitude, and (2) high-altitude natives at 5050 m (highlanders). In 12 healthy lowlanders (aged 32 ± 7 years) and 12 highlanders (Sherpa; 33 ± 14 years) we assessed brachial endothelium-dependent flow-mediated dilatation (FMD), endothelium-independent dilatation (via glyceryl trinitrate; GTN), common carotid intima–media thickness (CIMT) and diameter (ultrasound), and arterial stiffness via pulse wave velocity (PWV; applanation tonometry). Cephalic venous biomarkers of free radical-mediated lipid peroxidation (lipid hydroperoxides, LOOH), nitrite (NO2–) and lipid soluble antioxidants were also obtained at rest. In lowlanders, measurements were performed at sea level (334 m) and between days 3–4 (acute high altitude) and 12–14 (chronic high altitude) following arrival to 5050 m. Highlanders were assessed once at 5050 m. Compared with sea level, acute high altitude reduced lowlanders’ FMD (7.9 ± 0.4 vs. 6.8 ± 0.4%; P = 0.004) and GTN-induced dilatation (16.6 ± 0.9 vs. 14.5 ± 0.8%; P = 0.006), and raised central PWV (6.0 ± 0.2vs. 6.6 ± 0.3 m s−1; P = 0.001). These changes persisted at days 12–14, and after allometrically scaling FMD to adjust for altered baseline diameter. Compared to lowlanders at sea level and high altitude, highlanders had a lower carotid wall:lumen ratio (∼19%, P ≤ 0.04), attributable to a narrower CIMT and wider lumen. Although both LOOH and NO2– increased with high altitude in lowlanders, only LOOH correlated with the reduction in GTN-induced dilatation evident during acute (n = 11, r = −0.53) and chronic (n = 7, r = −0.69; P ≤ 0.01) exposure to 5050 m. In a follow-up, placebo-controlled experiment (n = 11 healthy lowlanders) conducted in a normobaric hypoxic chamber (inspired O2 fraction () = 0.11; 6 h), a sustained reduction in FMD was evident within 1 h of hypoxic exposure when compared to normoxic baseline (5.7 ± 1.6 vs. 8.0 ±1.3%; P < 0.01); this decline in FMD was largely reversed following α1-adrenoreceptor blockade. In conclusion, high-altitude exposure in lowlanders caused persistent impairment in vascular function, which was mediated partially via oxidative stress and sympathoexcitation. Although a lifetime of high-altitude exposure neither intensifies nor attenuates the impairments seen with short-term exposure, chronic high-altitude exposure appears to be associated with arterial remodelling.
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The microstructural evolution during short-term (up to 3000 hours) thermal exposure of three 9/12Cr heat-resistant steels was studied, as well as the mechanical properties after exposure. The tempered martensitic lath structure, as well as the precipitation of carbide and MX type carbonitrides in the steel matrix, was stable after 3000 hours of exposure at 873 K (600 °C). A microstructure observation showed that during the short-term thermal exposure process, the change of mechanical properties was caused mainly by the formation and growth of Laves-phase precipitates in the steels. On thermal exposure, with an increase of cobalt and tungsten contents, cobalt could promote the segregation of tungsten along the martensite lath to form Laves phase, and a large size and high density of Laves-phase precipitates along the grain boundaries could lead to the brittle intergranular fracture of the steels.
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At QUB we have constructed a system that allows students to self-assess their capability on the fine grained learning outcomes for a module and to update their record as the term progresses. In the system each of the learning outcomes are linked to the relevant teaching session (lectures and labs) and to [online] resources that students can access at any time. Students can structure their own learning experience to their needs to attain the learning outcomes. The system keeps a history of the student’s record, allowing the lecturer to observe how the students’ abilities progress over the term and to compare it to assessment results. The system also keeps of any of the resource links that student has clicked on.
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1. We analysed 41 years of data (1968–2008) from Blelham Tarn, U.K., to determine the consequences of eutrophication and climate warming on hypolimnetic dissolved oxygen (DO).
2. The establishment of thermal stratification was strongly related to the onset of DO depletion in the lower hypolimnion. As a result of a progressively earlier onset of stratification and later overturn, the duration of stratification increased by 38 ± 8 days over the 41 years.
3. The observed rate of volumetric hypolimnetic oxygen depletion (VHODobs) ranged from 0.131 to 0.252 g O2 m−3 per day and decreased significantly over the study period, despite the increase in the mean chlorophyll a (Chl a) concentration in the growing season. The vertical transport of DO represented from 0 to 30% of VHODobs, while adjustments for interannual differences in hypolimnetic temperature were less important, ranging from −11 to 9% of VHODobs.
4. The mean wind speed during May made the strongest significant contribution to the variation in VHODobs. VHODobs adjusted for the vertical transport of DO and hypolimnetic temperature differences, VHODadj, was significantly related to the upper mixed layer Chl a concentration during spring.
5. Hypolimnetic anoxia (HA) ranged from 27 to 168 days per year and increased significantly over time, which undoubtedly had negative ecological consequences for the lake.
6. In similar small temperate lakes, the negative effects of eutrophication on hypolimnetic DO are likely to be exacerbated by changes in lake thermal structure brought about by a warming climate, which may undermine management efforts to alleviate the effects of anthropogenic eutrophication.
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Thesis written for Oceanography 445
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Tese de doutoramento, Biologia (Biologia Celular), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2016
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This paper presents an artificial neural network approach for short-term wind power forecasting in Portugal. The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Hence, good forecasting tools play a key role in tackling these challenges. The accuracy of the wind power forecasting attained with the proposed approach is evaluated against persistence and ARIMA approaches, reporting the numerical results from a real-world case study.
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The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Hence, good forecasting tools play a key role in tackling these challenges. In this paper, an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference approach is proposed for short-term wind power forecasting. Results from a real-world case study are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results obtained with other approaches. Numerical results are presented and conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2011 Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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Short-term risk management is highly dependent on long-term contractual decisions previously established; risk aversion factor of the agent and short-term price forecast accuracy. Trying to give answers to that problem, this paper provides a different approach for short-term risk management on electricity markets. Based on long-term contractual decisions and making use of a price range forecast method developed by the authors, the short-term risk management tool presented here has as main concern to find the optimal spot market strategies that a producer should have for a specific day in function of his risk aversion factor, with the objective to maximize the profits and simultaneously to practice the hedge against price market volatility. Due to the complexity of the optimization problem, the authors make use of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to find the optimal solution. Results from realistic data, namely from OMEL electricity market, are presented and discussed in detail.
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This paper addresses the optimal involvement in derivatives electricity markets of a power producer to hedge against the pool price volatility. To achieve this aim, a swarm intelligence meta-heuristic optimization technique for long-term risk management tool is proposed. This tool investigates the long-term opportunities for risk hedging available for electric power producers through the use of contracts with physical (spot and forward contracts) and financial (options contracts) settlement. The producer risk preference is formulated as a utility function (U) expressing the trade-off between the expectation and the variance of the return. Variance of return and the expectation are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a long-term price range forecasting model. This model also makes use of particle swarm optimization (PSO) to find the best parameters allow to achieve better forecasting results. On the other hand, the price estimation depends on load forecasting. This work also presents a regressive long-term load forecast model that make use of PSO to find the best parameters as well as in price estimation. The PSO technique performance has been evaluated by comparison with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based approach. A case study is presented and the results are discussed taking into account the real price and load historical data from mainland Spanish electricity market demonstrating the effectiveness of the methodology handling this type of problems. Finally, conclusions are dully drawn.
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A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics
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BACKGROUND: Dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) is a leading cause of chronic morbidity and mortality in muscular dystrophy (MD) patients. Current pharmacological treatments are not yet able to counteract chronic myocardial wastage, thus novel therapies are being intensely explored. MicroRNAs have been implicated as fine regulators of cardiomyopathic progression. Previously, miR-669a downregulation has been linked to the severe DCM progression displayed by Sgcb-null dystrophic mice. However, the impact of long-term overexpression of miR-669a on muscle structure and functionality of the dystrophic heart is yet unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS: Here, we demonstrate that intraventricular delivery of adeno-associated viral (AAV) vectors induces long-term (18 months) miR-669a overexpression and improves survival of Sgcb-null mice. Treated hearts display significant decrease in hypertrophic remodeling, fibrosis, and cardiomyocyte apoptosis. Moreover, miR-669a treatment increases sarcomere organization, reduces ventricular atrial natriuretic peptide (ANP) levels, and ameliorates gene/miRNA profile of DCM markers. Furthermore, long-term miR-669a overexpression significantly reduces adverse remodeling and enhances systolic fractional shortening of the left ventricle in treated dystrophic mice, without significant detrimental consequences on skeletal muscle wastage. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provide the first evidence of long-term beneficial impact of AAV-mediated miRNA therapy in a transgenic model of severe, chronic MD-associated DCM.
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Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses reported in the French technical manual of the WISC-IV provides evidence supporting a structure with four indices: Verbal Comprehension (VCI), Perceptual Reasoning (PRI), Working Memory (WMI), and Processing Speed (PSI). Although the WISC-IV is more attuned to contemporary theory, it is still not in total accordance with the dominant theory: the Cattell-Horn-Carroll (CHC) theory of cognitive ability. This study was designed to determine whether the French WISC-IV is better described with the four-factor solution or whether an alternative model based on the CHC theory is more appropriate. The intercorrelations matrix reported in the French technical manual was submitted to confirmatory factor analysis. A comparison of competing models suggests that a model based on the CHC theory fits the data better than the current WISC-IV structure. It appears that the French WISC-IV in fact measures six factors: crystallized intelligence (Gc), fluid intelligence (Gf), short-term memory (Gsm), processing speed (Gs), quantitative knowledge (Gq), and visual processing (Gv). We recommend that clinicians interpret the subtests of the French WISC-IV in relation to this CHC model in addition to the four indices.
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Introduction : Décrire les patients d'une structure gériatrique offrant des hospitalisations de courte durée, dans un contexte ambulatoire, pour des situations gériatriques courantes dans le canton de Genève (Suisse). Mesurer les performances de cette structure en termes de qualité des soins et de coûts. Méthodes : Des données relatives au profil des 100 premiers patients ont été collectées (huit mois), ainsi qu'aux prestations, aux ressources et aux effets (réadmissions, décès, satisfaction, complications) de manière à mesurer différents indicateurs de qualité et de coûts. Les valeurs observées ont été systématiquement comparées aux valeurs attendues, calculées à partir du profil des patients. Résultats : Des critères d'admission ont été fixés pour exclure les situations dans lesquelles d'autres structures offrent des soins mieux adaptés. La spécificité de cette structure intermédiaire a été d'assurer une continuité des soins et d'organiser d'emblée le retour à domicile par des prestations de liaison ambulatoire. La faible occurrence des réadmissions potentiellement évitables, une bonne satisfaction des patients, l'absence de décès prématurés et le faible nombre de complications suggèrent que les soins médicaux et infirmiers ont été délivrés avec une bonne qualité. Le coût s'est révélé nettement plus économique que des séjours hospitaliers après ajustement pour la lourdeur des cas. Conclusion : L'expérience-pilote a démontré la faisabilité et l'utilité d'une unité d'hébergement et d'hospitalisation de court séjour en toute sécurité. Le suivi du patient par le médecin traitant assure une continuité des soins et évite la perte d'information lors des transitions ainsi que les examens non pertinents. INTRODUCTION: To describe patients admitted to a geriatric institution, providing short-term hospitalizations in the context of ambulatory care in the canton of Geneva. To measure the performances of this structure in terms of quality ofcare and costs. METHOD: Data related to the clinical,functioning and participation profiles of the first 100 patients were collected. Data related to effects (readmission, deaths, satisfaction, complications), services and resources were also documented over an 8-month period to measure various quality and costindicators. Observed values were systematically compared to expected values, adjusted for case mix. RESULTS: Explicit criteria were proposed to focus on the suitable patients, excluding situations in which other structures were considered to be more appropriate. The specificity of this intermediate structure was to immediately organize, upon discharge, outpatient services at home. The low rate of potentially avoidable readmissions, the high patient satisfaction scores, the absence of premature death and the low number of iatrogenic complications suggest that medical and nursing care delivered reflect a good quality of services. The cost was significantly lower than expected, after adjusting for case mix. CONCLUSION: The pilot experience showed that a short-stay hospitalization unit was feasible with acceptable security conditions. The attending physician's knowledge of the patients allowed this system tofocus on essential issues without proposing inappropriate services.
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The growing complexity of healthcare needs of residents living in long-term care necessitates a high level of professional interdependence to deliver quality, individualized care. Personal support workers (PSWs) are the most likely to observe, interpret and respond to resident care plans, yet little is known about how they experience collaboration. This study aimed to describe PSWs’ current experiences with collaboration in long-term care and to understand the factors that influenced their involvement in collaboration. A qualitative approach was used to interview eight PSWs from one long-term care facility in rural Ontario. Thematic analysis revealed three themes: valuing PSWs’ contributions, organizational structure, and individual characteristics and relationships. Collaboration was a difficult process for PSWs who felt largely undervalued and excluded. To improve collaboration, management needs to provide opportunities for PSWs to contribute and support the development of relationships required to collaborate.