A review of forecast error covariance statistics in atmospheric variational data assimilation. I: Characteristics and measurements of forecast error covariances

Variational data assimilation for parameter estimation: application to a simple morphodynamic model

Data assimilation is a sophisticated mathematical technique for combining observational data with model predictions to produce state and parameter estimates that most accurately approximate the current and future states of the true system. The technique is commonly used in atmospheric and oceanic modelling, combining empirical observations with model predictions to produce more accurate and well-calibrated forecasts. Here, we consider a novel application within a coastal environment and describe how the method can also be used to deliver improved estimates of uncertain morphodynamic model parameters. This is achieved using a technique known as state augmentation. Earlier applications of state augmentation have typically employed the 4D-Var, Kalman filter or ensemble Kalman filter assimilation schemes. Our new method is based on a computationally inexpensive 3D-Var scheme, where the specification of the error covariance matrices is crucial for success. A simple 1D model of bed-form propagation is used to demonstrate the method. The scheme is capable of recovering near-perfect parameter values and, therefore, improves the capability of our model to predict future bathymetry. Such positive results suggest the potential for application to more complex morphodynamic models.

Producing Inequalities: Regional Sequences in Later Prehistoric Southern Spain

This paper presents regional sequences of production, consumption and Social relations ill Southern Spain from the beginning of the Neolithic to the Early Bronze Age (c. 5600-1550 BC). The regions Studied are southeast Spain, Valencia, the southern Meseta and central/western Andalucia. The details presented for each region and period vary in quality but Show how Much our knowledge of the archaeological record of southern Spain has changed during the last four decades. Among the Surprises are the rapidity of agricultural adoption. the emergence of regional centres of aggregated population in enclosed/fortified settlements of up to 400 hectares in the fourth and third millennia BC. the use of copper objects as instruments of production, rather than as items With 11 purely symbolic of 'prestige' value, large-scale copper production in western Andalucia in the third millennium BC (as opposed to the usual domestic production model), and the inference of societies based oil relations of class.