Efectos de ciclos de precios de metales : estimación de un modelo de equilibrio general con time to build para la economía peruana, 2001-2015

En el presente documento se estudia el desempeño que ha tenido Perú durante la última fase expansiva del ciclo de precios de commodities, específicamente entre los años 2001 y 2015. Para esto, se desarrolla un modelo de equilibrio general estocástico y dinámico, basado en Medina y Soto (2007) y Fornero y Kichner (2014), que incorpora un sector productor de commodities con inversión del tipo time to build. El modelo es estimado de forma lineal y a partir de este se muestra la importancia que tienen los choques de precios commodities sobre el resto de la actividad económica. Asimismo, se analizan distintos tipos de políticas fiscales y monetarias, ante este tipo de choques. También se obtienen políticas monetarias óptimas a partir de la función de pérdida de la autoridad monetaria. Los resultados de la investigación apuntan a que, cuando hay un incremento en el precio de los commodities, se genera una dinámica procíclica en el valor de la producción de todos los sectores, en la inversión, el consumo y el gasto del Gobierno. Además, se encuentra que la incorporación del mecanismo de time to build permite explicar mejor la dinámica observada. Dicho mecanismo ayuda a comprender que el choque en cuestión demora en propagarse, ya que los proyectos mineros toman tiempo en construirse. Este aporte metodológico es de particular relevancia en los ejercicios de modelamiento y predicción que se quieran realizar sobre la economía peruana.

Personalised TV ads are the future – but is it time to panic?

TV Advertising is evolving quickly. This article examines how the popularity of viewing content on mobile platforms is changing the way we advertise. VOD and OTT media services have meant that advertisers can now automate and personalise their TV advertising. It's having a significant impact on the UK TV business model.

Neuroscience and education: prime time to build the bridge

As neuroscience gains social traction and entices media attention, the notion that education has much to benefit from brain research becomes increasingly popular. However, it has been argued that the fundamental bridge toward education is cognitive psychology, not neuroscience. We discuss four specific cases in which neuroscience synergizes with other disciplines to serve education, ranging from very general physiological aspects of human learning such as nutrition, exercise and sleep, to brain architectures that shape the way we acquire language and reading, and neuroscience tools that increasingly allow the early detection of cognitive deficits, especially in preverbal infants. Neuroscience methods, tools and theoretical frameworks have broadened our understanding of the mind in a way that is highly relevant to educational practice. Although the bridge’s cement is still fresh, we argue why it is prime time to march over it.

The Effects of Non-Nutritive Sucking and Pre-Feeding Oral Stimulation on Time to Achieve Independent Oral Feeding for Preterm Infants

Background: The survival rates of preterm infants has increased over the last years, but oral feeding difficulties are the most common problems encountered by them Objectives: This study aimed at comparing the effects of non-nutritive sucking (NNS) and pre-feeding oral stimulation on feeding skills, length of hospital stay and weight gain of 26-32 weeks gestational age preterm infants in NICU, to determine the more effective intervention. Patients and Methods: Thirty-two preterm infants were assigned randomly into three groups. One intervention group received pre-feeding oral stimulation program and the other received non-nutritive sucking stimulation, while the control group received a sham intervention. Gestational age of infants was calculated during 1, 4 and 8 oral feeding and discharge time from NICU. The infants’ weights were measured weekly from birth and at discharge time. Results: Mean gestational age on 8 time oral feeding per day, in 3 groups was not significant (P = 0.282). Although NNS and pre-feeding oral stimulation groups has fulfilled this criterion 7.55 and 6.07 days sooner than the control group, respectively (a result which is of great clinical and economic importance), but the difference did not reach statistical significance. Weight gaining at discharge time in NNS group was significantly higher than control and pre-feeding oral stimulation groups (P < 0.05). Conclusions: This study revealed that pre-feeding oral stimulation and NNS programs both were effective on oral feeding skills and weight gaining of the immature newborns. Yet, it seems that NNS program was more effective than pre-feeding oral stimulation on weight gaining.

Conservative management in very elderly patients with severe aortic stenosis: Time to change?

Despite current recommendations, a high percentage of patients with severe symptomatic aortic stenosis are managed conservatively. The aim of this study was to study symptomatic patients undergoing conservative management from the IDEAS registry, describing their baseline clinical characteristics, mortality, and the causes according to the reason for conservative management. Consecutive patients with severe aortic stenosis diagnosed at 48 centers during January 2014 were included. Baseline clinical characteristics, echocardiographic data, Charlson index, and EuroSCORE-II were registered, including vital status and performance of valve intervention during one-year follow-up. For the purpose of this substudy we assessed symptomatic patients undergoing conservative management, including them in 5 groups according to the reason for performing conservative management [I: comorbidity/frailty (128, 43.8%); II: dementia 18 (6.2%); III: advanced age 34 (11.6%); IV: patients’ refusal 62 (21.2%); and V: other reasons 50 (17.1%)]. We included 292 patients aged 81.5 ± 9 years. Patients from group I had higher Charlson index (4 ± 2.3), higher EuroSCORE-II (7.5 ± 6), and a higher overall (42.2%) and non-cardiac mortality (16.4%) than the other groups. In contrast, patients from group III had fewer comorbidities, lower EuroSCORE-II (4 ± 2.5), and low overall (20.6%) and non-cardiac mortality (5.9%). Patients with severe symptomatic aortic stenosis managed conservatively have different baseline characteristics and clinical course according to the reason for performing conservative management. A prospective assessment of comorbidity and other geriatric syndromes might contribute to improve therapeutic strategy in this clinical setting.

Remaining time to serve before expiration of sentence of SCDC total inmate population as of June 30, 2016

These statistics break down the incarceration time left for inmates of South Carolina prisons. It ranges from 3 months or less to Life/Death as of June 30, 2016.

Convergence time to equilibrium distributions of autonomous and periodic non-autonomous graphs

We present some estimates of the time of convergence to the equilibrium distribution in autonomous and periodic non-autonomous graphs, with ergodic stochastic adjacency matrices, using the eigenvalues of these matrices. On this way we generalize previous results from several authors, that only considered reversible matrices.

Strategie produttive e di marketing nell'industria cinematografica e televisiva: i casi di Mr. Robot e No Time to Die

La tesi si occupa di delineare una panoramica sul sistema dell'industria dei media e in particolare delle tendenze contemporanee produttive e di marketing volte ad attirare il maggior numero di consumatori. Si prende in esame il prodotto cinematografico dal punto di vista economico e di marketing delineandone i diversi processi: dal marketing mix alle tecniche di segmentazione, targeting e posizionamento fino alle diverse componenti del prodotto stesso che influenzano le scelte dei fruitori. Quest'ultimi esprimono esigenze diverse ed è per questo che è importante che si conosca la domanda a cui rivolgersi e saper comunicare nel modo più adeguato possibile. Nella contemporaneità lo spettatore è sempre più attivo e coinvolto poiché con la sovrabbondanza di offerta si cerca di produrre contenuti più complessi, serializzati e high concept proprio con l'obiettivo di attrarre. Nell'era della convergenza, come definita da Henry Jenkins, si parla di prosumer, ovvero di soggetti che partecipano attivamente al consumo dei prodotti producendo a loro volta contenuti. A queste dinamiche, il marketing contemporaneo risponde a sua volta con forme esperienziali e a forme virali che possano attirare l'attenzione. Analizzo a tal proposito la campagna marketing della serie tv Mr. Robot in quanto si inserisce all'interno della complessità produttiva e della transmedialità e il caso cinematografico della campagna di No Time to Die, l'ultimo film del franchise di 007, in era pandemica.

Are we too busy to volunteer? The relationship between time and volunteering using the 1997 ABS Time Use Data

Time availability is a key concept in relation to volunteering, leading to organisations and governments targeting those outside paid work as a potential source of volunteers. It may be that factors such as a growth in female participation in the labour market and an increase in work hours will lead to more people saying they are simply too busy to volunteer This paper discusses how social and economic change, such as changing work patterns, are impacting on time availability. Using the 1997 ABS Time Use data, it identifies a predictive model of spare time by looking at demographic, life stage and employment related variables. Results confirm that those outside paid work, particularly the young, males and those without partners or children, are the groups most likely to have time to spare. These groups do not currently report high rates of volunteering. The paper concludes by questioning the premise that people will volunteer simply because they have time to spare. This is just one component of a range of motivations and factors that influence the decision to volunteer.

Fast test for assessing the susceptibility of Mycobacterium tuberculosis to isoniazid and rifampin by real-time PCR

Mycobacterium tuberculosis is the bacterium that causes tuberculosis (TB), a leading cause of death from infectious disease worldwide. Rapid diagnosis of resistant strains is important for the control of TB. Real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assays may detect all of the mutations that occur in the M. tuberculosis 81-bp core region of the rpoB gene, which is responsible for resistance to rifampin (RIF) and codon 315 of the katG gene and the inhA ribosomal binding site, which are responsible for isoniazid (INH). The goal of this study was to assess the performance of RT-PCR compared to traditional culture-based methods for determining the drug susceptibility of M. tuberculosis. BACTEC TM MGIT TM 960 was used as the gold standard method for phenotypic drug susceptibility testing. Susceptibilities to INH and RIF were also determined by genotyping of katG, inhA and rpoB genes. RT-PCR based on molecular beacons probes was used to detect specific point mutations associated with resistance. The sensitivities of RT-PCR in detecting INH resistance using katG and inhA targets individually were 55% and 25%, respectively and 73% when combined. The sensitivity of the RT-PCR assay in detecting RIF resistance was 99%. The median time to complete the RT-PCR assay was three-four hours. The specificities for tests were both 100%. Our results confirm that RT-PCR can detect INH and RIF resistance in less than four hours with high sensitivity.

Time course of the hemodynamic responses to aortic depressor nerve stimulation in conscious spontaneously hypertensive rats

The time to reach the maximum response of arterial pressure, heart rate and vascular resistance (hindquarter and mesenteric) was measured in conscious male spontaneously hypertensive (SHR) and normotensive control rats (NCR; Wistar; 18-22 weeks) subjected to electrical stimulation of the aortic depressor nerve (ADN) under thiopental anesthesia. The parameters of stimulation were 1 mA intensity and 2 ms pulse length applied for 5 s, using frequencies of 10, 30, and 90 Hz. The time to reach the hemodynamic responses at different frequencies of ADN stimulation was similar for SHR (N = 15) and NCR (N = 14); hypotension = NCR (4194 ± 336 to 3695 ± 463 ms) vs SHR (3475 ± 354 to 4494 ± 300 ms); bradycardia = NCR (1618 ± 152 to 1358 ± 185 ms) vs SHR (1911 ± 323 to 1852 ± 431 ms), and the fall in hindquarter vascular resistance = NCR (6054 ± 486 to 6550 ± 847 ms) vs SHR (4849 ± 918 to 4926 ± 646 ms); mesenteric = NCR (5574 ± 790 to 5752 ± 539 ms) vs SHR (5638 ± 648 to 6777 ± 624 ms). In addition, ADN stimulation produced baroreflex responses characterized by a faster cardiac effect followed by a vascular effect, which together contributed to the decrease in arterial pressure. Therefore, the results indicate that there is no alteration in the conduction of the electrical impulse after the site of baroreceptor mechanical transduction in the baroreflex pathway (central and/or efferent) in conscious SHR compared to NCR.

Hip fracture in the elderly: does counting time from fracture to surgery or from hospital admission to surgery matter when studying in-hospital mortality?

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

LH and FSH concentration and follicular development in Nellore heifers submitted to fixed-time artificial insemination protocols with different progesterone concentrations

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)