978 resultados para term trends
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Planktonic foraminiferal oxygen and carbon isotope analyses from Tyrrhenian Sea Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 653 provide a continuous record of the Pliocene-Pleistocene paleoceanographic history of the Mediterranean. Long-term trends in oxygen isotopes primarily reflect changes in global climatic conditions, with a more local or regional signal superimposed on this record. For example, significant enrichments in 18O due to decreases in surface water temperature and/or increases in continental ice volume occurred at 3.1, 2.7, 2.1, 1.6, and 0.4 Ma. In contrast to most open-ocean results, the early Pliocene 6lsO record of Site 653 exhibits high-amplitude fluctuations indicative of very unstable climatic conditions in this region. Another unique aspect of this Mediterranean d18Orecord is the pronounced cooling at the Pliocene/Pleistocene boundary. The carbon isotope record for Site 653 also exhibits high-amplitude variability throughout the Pliocene-Pleistocene. This variability most probably reflects changes in the carbon isotopic composition of the source of Mediterranean surface waters.
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Introduction: Illinois RiverWatch is a volunteer stream monitoring program coordinated by the Illinois Department of Natural Resources (DNR). Through RiverWatch Illinois citizens are trained as Citizen Scientists to conduct biological monitoring of the state's rivers and streams in order to identify long-term trends in stream health. RiverWatch provides citizen volunteers a hands-on opportunity to learn about stream ecology and the condition of Illinois streams, while helping scientists monitor stream conditions across the state.
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The Queensland Environmental Protection Agency monitored water quality at 133 sites in North Queensland waterways between Cooktown and Bundaburg from 1992 to 2001. Condition of the waterways was rated by comparing recent data with the Queensland Water Quality Guidelines. Long-term trends were analysed using a censored regression technique that incorporates the effects of flow, temperature, seasonality and allows for long-term non-linear trends. Many sites were in good condition; those in poor condition were usually impacted by point source discharges; those in moderate condition were usually impacted by agricultural land use. There were no consistent long-term trends across the whole region. Recommendations for future programs include incorporating pressure indicators, ensuring high standards of quality assurance, including covariates such as rainfall in trend assessment and continuing programs over more than 10 years to allow detection of trends due to changes in land-use. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Extensive coral bleaching Occurred intertidally in early August 2003 in the Capricorn Bunker group (Wistari Reef, Heron and One Tree Islands; Southern Great Barrier Reef). The affected intertidal coral had been exposed to unusually cold (minimum = 13.3degreesC; wet bulb temperature = 9degreesC) and dry winds (44% relative humidity) for 2 d during predawn low tides. Coral bleached in the upper 10 cm of their branches and had less than 0.2 x 10(6) cell cm(-2) as compared with over 2.5 x 10(6), Cell cm(-2) in nonbleached areas. Dark-adapted quantum yields did not differ between symbionts in bleached and nonbleached areas. Exposing symbionts to light, however, led to greater quenching of Photosystem 11 in symbionts in the bleached coral. Bleached areas of the affected colonies had died by September 2003, with areas that were essentially covered by more than 80% living coral decreasing to less than 10% visible living coral cover. By January 2004, coral began to recover, principally from areas of colonies that were not exposed during low tide (i.e., from below dead, upper regions). These data highlight the importance of understanding local weather patterns as well as the effects of longer term trends in global climate.
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We analyzed the dynamics of freshwater marsh vegetation of Taylor Slough in eastern Everglades National Park for the 1979 to 2003 period, focusing on cover of individual plant species and on cover and composition of marsh communities in areas potentially influenced by a canal pump station (‘‘S332’’) and its successor station (‘‘S332D’’). Vegetation change analysis incorporated the hydrologic record at these sites for three intervals: pre-S332 (1961–1980), S332 (1980–1999), post-S332 (1999–2002). During S332 and post-S332 intervals, water level in Taylor Slough was affected by operations of S332 and S332D. To relate vegetation change to plot-level hydrological conditions in Taylor Slough, we developed a weighted averaging regression and calibration model (WA) using data from the marl prairies of Everglades National Park and Big Cypress National Preserve. We examined vegetation pattern along five transects. Transects 1–3 were established in 1979 south of the water delivery structures, and were influenced by their operations. Transects 4 and 5 were established in 1997, the latter west of these structures and possibly under their influence. Transect 4 was established in the northern drainage basin of Taylor Slough, beyond the likely zones of influence of S332 and S332D. The composition of all three southern transects changed similarly after 1979. Where muhly grass (Muhlenbergia capillaris var. filipes) was once dominant, sawgrass (Cladium jamaicense), replaced it, while where sawgrass initially predominated, hydric species such as spikerush (Eleocharis cellulosa Torr.) overtook it. Most of the changes in species dominance in Transects 1–3 occurred after 1992, were mostly in place by 1995–1996, and continued through 1999, indicating how rapidly vegetation in seasonal Everglades marshes can respond to hydrological modifications. During the post-S332 period, these long-term trends began reversing. In the two northern transects, total cover and dominance of both muhly grass and sawgrass increased from 1997 to 2003. Thus, during the 1990’s, vegetation composition south of S332 became more like that of long hydroperiod marshes, but afterward it partially returned to its 1979 condition, i.e., a community characteristic of less prolonged flooding. In contrast, the vegetation change along the two northern transects since 1997 showed little relationship to hydrologic status.
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The abundance of calcareous green algae was recorded quarterly at 28 sites within the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS) for a period of 7 years as part of a sea grass monitoring program. To evaluate the validity of using the functional-form group approach, we designed a sampling method that included the functional-form group and the component genera. This strategy enabled us to analyze the spatiotemporal patterns in the abundance of calcareous green algae as a group and to describe synchronous behavior among its genera through the application of a nonlinear regression model to both categories of data. Spatial analyses revealed that, in general, all genera displayed long-term trends of increasing abundance at most sites; however, at some sites the long-term trends for genera opposed one another. Strong synchrony in the timing of seasonal changes was found among all genera, possibly reflecting similar reproductive and seasonal growth pattern, but the variability in the magnitude of seasonal changes was very high among genera and sites. No spatial patterns were found in long-term or seasonal changes; the only significant relation detected was for slope, with sites closer to land showing higher values, suggesting that some factors associated with land proximity are affecting this increase. We conclude that the abundances of genera behaved differently from the functional-form group, indicating that the use of the functionalform group approach may be unsuitable to detect changes in sea grass community structure in the FKNMS at the existing temporal and spatial scale of the monitoring program.
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Globally, small-scale fisheries (SSFs) are driven by climate, governance, and market factors of social-ecological change, presenting both challenges and opportunities. The ability of small-scale fishermen and buyers to adapt to changing conditions allows participants to survive economic or environmental disturbances and to benefit from optimal conditions. This study presented here identifies key large-scale factors that drive SSFs in California to shift focus among targets and that dictate long-term trends in landings. We use Elinor Ostrom’s Social-Ecological System (SES) framework to apply an interdisciplinary approach when identifying potential factors and when understanding the complex dynamics of these fisheries. We analyzed the interactions among Monterey Bay SSFs over the past four decades since the passage of the Magnuson Stevens Fisheries Conservation and Management Act of 1976. In this region, the Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax), northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax), and market squid (Loligo opalescens) fisheries comprise a tightly linked system where shifting focus among fisheries is a key element to adaptive capacity and reduced social and ecological vulnerability. Using a cluster analysis of landings, we identified four modes from 1974 to 2012 that were dominated by squid, sardine, anchovy, or lacked any dominance, enabling us to identify external drivers attributed to a change in fishery dominance during seven distinct transition points. Overall, we show that market and climate factors drive the transitions among dominance modes. Governance phases most dictated long-term trends in landings and are best viewed as a response to changes in perceived biomass and thus a proxy for biomass. Our findings suggest that globally, small-scale fishery managers should consider enabling shifts in effort among fisheries and retaining existing flexibility, as adaptive capacity is a critical determinant for social and ecological resilience.
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The exponential growth of studies on the biological response to ocean acidification over the last few decades has generated a large amount of data. To facilitate data comparison, a data compilation hosted at the data publisher PANGAEA was initiated in 2008 and is updated on a regular basis (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.149999). By January 2015, a total of 581 data sets (over 4 000 000 data points) from 539 papers had been archived. Here we present the developments of this data compilation five years since its first description by Nisumaa et al. (2010). Most of study sites from which data archived are still in the Northern Hemisphere and the number of archived data from studies from the Southern Hemisphere and polar oceans are still relatively low. Data from 60 studies that investigated the response of a mix of organisms or natural communities were all added after 2010, indicating a welcomed shift from the study of individual organisms to communities and ecosystems. The initial imbalance of considerably more data archived on calcification and primary production than on other processes has improved. There is also a clear tendency towards more data archived from multifactorial studies after 2010. For easier and more effective access to ocean acidification data, the ocean acidification community is strongly encouraged to contribute to the data archiving effort, and help develop standard vocabularies describing the variables and define best practices for archiving ocean acidification data.
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We present new d13C measurements of atmospheric CO2 covering the last glacial/interglacial cycle, complementing previous records covering Terminations I and II. Most prominent in the new record is a significant depletion in d13C(atm) of 0.5 permil occurring during marine isotope stage (MIS) 4, followed by an enrichment of the same magnitude at the beginning of MIS 3. Such a significant excursion in the record is otherwise only observed at glacial terminations, suggesting that similar processes were at play, such as changing sea surface temperatures, changes in marine biological export in the Southern Ocean (SO) due to variations in aeolian iron fluxes, changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, upwelling of deep water in the SO, and long-term trends in terrestrial carbon storage. Based on previous modeling studies, we propose constraints on some of these processes during specific time intervals. The decrease in d13C(atm) at the end of MIS 4 starting approximately 64 kyr B.P. was accompanied by increasing [CO2]. This period is also marked by a decrease in aeolian iron flux to the SO, followed by an increase in SO upwelling during Heinrich event 6, indicating that it is likely that a large amount of d13C-depleted carbon was transferred to the deep oceans previously, i.e., at the onset of MIS 4. Apart from the upwelling event at the end of MIS 4 (and potentially smaller events during Heinrich events in MIS 3), upwelling of deep water in the SO remained reduced until the last glacial termination, whereupon a second pulse of isotopically light carbon was released into the atmosphere.
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The Sahara Desert is the largest source of mineral dust in the world. Emissions of African dust increased sharply in the early 1970s, a change that has been attributed mainly to drought in the Sahara/Sahel region caused by changes in the global distribution of sea surface temperature. The human contribution to land degradation and dust mobilization in this region remains poorly understood, owing to the paucity of data that would allow the identification of long-term trends in desertification. Direct measurements of airborne African dust concentrations only became available in the mid-1960s from a station on Barbados and subsequently from satellite imagery since the late 1970s: they do not cover the onset of commercial agriculture in the Sahel region ~170 years ago. Here we construct a 3,200-year record of dust deposition off northwest Africa by investigating the chemistry and grain-size distribution of terrigenous sediments deposited at a marine site located directly under the West African dust plume. With the help of our dust record and a proxy record for West African precipitation we find that, on the century scale, dust deposition is related to precipitation in tropical West Africa until the seventeenth century. At the beginning of the nineteenth century, a sharp increase in dust deposition parallels the advent of commercial agriculture in the Sahel region. Our findings suggest that human-induced dust emissions from the Sahel region have contributed to the atmospheric dust load for about 200 years.
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A continuous time series of annual soil thaw records, extending from 1994 to 2009, is available for comparison with the records of thaw obtained from the Biocomplexity Experiment (BE) for the period 2006-2009. Discontinuous records of thaw at Barrow from wet tundra sites date back to the 1960s. Comparisons between the longer records with the BE observations reveal strong similarities. Records of permafrost temperature, reflecting changes in the annual surface energy exchange, are available from the 1950s for comparison with results from measurement programs begun in 2002. The long-term systematic geocryological investigations at Barrow indicate an increase in permafrost temperature, especially during the last several years. The increase in near-surface permafrost temperature is most pronounced in winter. Marked trends are not apparent in the active-layer record, although subsidence measurements on the North Slope indicate that penetration into the ice-rich layer at the top of permafrost has occurred over the past decade. Active-layer thickness values from the 1960s are generally higher than those from the 1990s, and are very similar to those of the 2000s. Analysis of spatial active-layer observations at representative locations demonstrates significant variations in active-layer thickness between different landscape types, reflecting the influence of vegetation, substrate, microtopography, and, especially, soil moisture. Landscape-specific differences exist in the response of active-layer thickness to climatic forcing. These differences are attributable to the existence of localized controls related to combinations of surface and subsurface characteristics. The geocryological records at Barrow illustrate the importance and effectiveness of sustained, well organized monitoring efforts to document long-term trends.
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Chloropigments and their derivative pheopigments preserved in sediments can directly be linked to photosynthesis. Their carbon and nitrogen stable isotopic compositions have been shown to be a good recorder of recent and past surface ocean environmental conditions tracing the carbon and nitrogen sources and dominant assimilation processes of the phytoplanktonic community. In this study we report results from combined compound-specific radiocarbon and stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analysis to examine the time-scales of synthesis and fate of chlorophyll-a and its degradation products pheophytin-a, pyropheophytin-a, and 132,173-cyclopheophorbide-a-enol until burial in Black Sea core-top sediments. The pigments are mainly of marine phytoplanktonic origin as implied by their stable isotopic compositions. Pigment ?15N values indicate nitrate as the major uptake substrate but 15N-depletion towards the open marine setting indicates either contribution from N2-fixation or direct uptake of ammonium from deeper waters. Radiocarbon concentrations translate into minimum and maximum pigment ages of approximately 40 to 1200 years. This implies that protective mechanisms against decomposition such as association with minerals, storage in deltaic anoxic environments, or eutrophication-induced hypoxia and light limitation are much more efficient than previously thought. Moreover, seasonal variations of nutrient source, growth period, and habitat and their associated isotopic variability are likely at least as strong as long-term trends. Combined triple isotope analysis of sedimentary chlorophyll and its primary derivatives is a powerful tool to delineate biogeochemical and diagenetic processes in the surface water and sediments, and to assess their precise time-scales.
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Twelve year datasets of weekly atmospheric concentrations of alpha- and gamma-HCH were compared between the two Arctic monitoring stations of Alert, Nunavut, Canada, and Zeppelin Mountain, Svalbard, Norway. Time-series analysis was conducted with the use of dynamic harmonic regression (DHR), which provided a very good model fit, to examine both the seasonal behaviour in these isomers and the longer-term, underlying trends. Strong spatial differences were not apparent between the two sites, although subtle differences in seasonal behaviour and composition were identified. For example, the composition of gamma-HCH to total HCH (alpha + gamma) was greater at Zeppelin compared to Alert, probably reflecting this site's proximity to major use regions of lindane. Pronounced seasonality in air concentrations for gamma-HCH was marked by a 'spring maximum event' (SME), confirming earlier studies. For alpha-HCH, the SME was much weaker and only evident at Alert, whereas at Zeppelin, seasonal fluctuations for alpha-HCH were marked by elevated concentrations in summer and lower concentrations during winter, with this pattern most apparent for the years after 2000. We attribute this difference in spatial and temporal patterns to the Arctic oscillation. A similar climatic pattern was not evident at either site in the gamma-HCH data. Seasonally adjusted, long-term trends revealed declining concentrations at both sites for alpha- and gamma-HCH over the entire time-series. Recent legislation affecting lindane use appear to account for this decline in gamma-HCH, with little evidence of a delay or 'lag' between the banning of lindane in Europe (a main source region) or Canada, and a decline in air concentrations observed at both Arctic sites.
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Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reduce pH of marine waters due to the absorption of atmospheric CO2 and formation of carbonic acid. Estuarine waters are more susceptible to acidification because they are subject to multiple acid sources and are less buffered than marine waters. Consequently, estuarine shell forming species may experience acidification sooner than marine species although the tolerance of estuarine calcifiers to pH changes is poorly understood. We analyzed 23 years of Chesapeake Bay water quality monitoring data and found that daytime average pH significantly decreased across polyhaline waters although pH has not significantly changed across mesohaline waters. In some tributaries that once supported large oyster populations, pH is increasing. Current average conditions within some tributaries however correspond to values that we found in laboratory studies to reduce oyster biocalcification rates or resulted in net shell dissolution. Calcification rates of juvenile eastern oysters, Crassostrea virginica, were measured in laboratory studies in a three-way factorial design with 3 pH levels, two salinities, and two temperatures. Biocalcification declined significantly with a reduction of ~0.5 pH units and higher temperature and salinity mitigated the decrease in biocalcification.
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Phytoplankton is a sentinel of marine ecosystem change. Composed by many species with different life-history strategies, it rapidly responds to environment changes. An analysis of the abundance of 54 phytoplankton species in Galicia (NW Spain) between 1989 and 2008 to determine the main components of temporal variability in relation to climate and upwelling showed that most of this variability was stochastic, as seasonality and long term trends contributed to relatively small fractions of the series. In general, trends appeared as non linear, and species clustered in 4 groups according to the trend pattern but there was no defined pattern for diatoms, dinoflagellates or other groups. While, in general, total abundance increased, no clear trend was found for 23 species, 14 species decreased, 4 species increased during the early 1990s, and only 13 species showed a general increase through the series. In contrast, series of local environmental conditions (temperature, stratification, nutrients) and climate-related variables (atmospheric pressure indices, upwelling winds) showed a high fraction of their variability in deterministic seasonality and trends. As a result, each species responded independently to environmental and climate variability, measured by generalized additive models. Most species showed a positive relationship with nutrient concentrations but only a few showed a direct relationship with stratification and upwelling. Climate variables had only measurable effects on some species but no common response emerged. Because its adaptation to frequent disturbances, phytoplankton communities in upwelling ecosystems appear less sensitive to changes in regional climate than other communities characterized by short and well defined productive periods.