The impact of the withdrawal from Afghanistan on Russia’s security. Egmont Security Policy Brief No. 54, March 2014

ISAF’s withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2014 will directly impact the wider region. Not only is there a risk of instability spilling over to Central Asia, but the drawdown will also accelerate the ongoing shift in the balance of power in Central Asia towards China. Should a spillover occur, the burden will mainly fall on Russia and China. Russia will, however, only continue playing the dominant role in the security of the former Soviet Central Asia (FSCA) until China takes on responsibility for the security of its direct sphere of influence or “dingwei”. Russia’s Near Abroad, however, overlaps both with the EU’s Eastern Neighbourhood in Europe and China’s dingwei in Central Asia and the Far East. It is, therefore, necessary to approach Russian reactions to these encroachments on its historical spheres of influence in a single context, taking into account the interrelationship between these three.

Age determination of sediment cores of the southeastern Weddell Sea, Antarctica

On the continental margin of the southeastern Weddell Sea, Antarctica, several channel-ridge systems can be traced on the eastern side of the Crary Fan. Swath mapping of the bathymetry reveals three southwest-northeast trending ridges up to 300 m high with channels on their southeastern side. The structures occur on a terrace of the continental slope in water depths of 2000 - 3300 m. We carried out sedimentological studies on cores from three sites. Two of the studied cores are from ridges, one is from the northwestern part of the terrace. The stratigraphy of the recovered sediments is based on accelerator mass spectrometer 14C determinations, stable oxygen and carbon isotopes analyses and paleomagnetic measurements. The sediments represent a period from the last glacial maximum (LGM) to recent time. They are composed predominantly of terrigenous components. We distinguish four different sedimentary facies and assign them to processes controlling sedimentation. Microlaminated muds and cross-stratified coarse-silty sediments originated from contour currents. Bioturbated sediments reflect the increasing influence of hemipelagic sedimentation. Structureless sediments with high contents of ice-rafted debris characterize slumps. The inferred contour currents shaping the continental slope during the LGM were canalized within the channels and supplied microlaminated mud to the western sedimentary ridges due to deflection to the left induced by the Coriolis force. The lamination of the sediments is attributed to seasonal variations of current velocities. The thermohaline bottom currents were directed to the northeast and hence opposite to the Weddell Gyre. Cross-stratified coarse-silty contourites on the ridges are intercalated with the muds and indicate spillover of faster thermohaline flows. Average sedimentation rates on the terrace of the continental slope were unusually high (250 cm/ka) during the LGM, indicating active growth phases of the Crary Fan during glacial intervals. A substantial environmental change at 19.5 - 20 ka is documented in the sediments by a gradual change from lamination to bioturbation. During the recent interglacial, bioturbated sediments were deposited in all parts of the terrace. Because of a reduction of the contour current velocities (4-7 cm/s), the water masses of the Weddell Gyre, supplying fine-grained sediments from northeast, gain a greater influence on sedimentation on the continental slope. Higher percentages of microfossils indicate enhanced biogenic productivity. Increased iceberg activity is documented by greater amounts of ice-rafted debris. The interglacial sedimentation rates decrease to a few cm/ka and indicate that the Crary Fan became relatively sediment-starved during interglacial intervals.

Innovation and internationalization of Latin American services

Innovation and internationalization in services are key drivers of structural transformation, productivity growth and overall economic performance in Latin America. The services sector accounts for two thirds of the region’s GDP and provides over 60% of its employment. These shares are higher than in other developing regions, but still lower than in countries with higher levels of per capita income. The spread of information and communication technologies in Latin America over the past three decades has vastly enhanced both the tradability of services and the sector’s propensity to innovate. Long considered unrelated processes, both internationalization and innovation are today widely recognized as key and complementary sources of firm-level competitiveness and human capital enhancement. The advent of many novel types of business and consumer services is furthermore a key factor in the rising insertion of Latin American firms in regional and global value chains and transnational production networks, which are now the predominant form of organization of international production and trade. This volume explores three different levels of interaction between internationalization and innovation in the services sector in Latin America. Part I analyses the role of services in manufacturing and other sectors’ global value chains from a theoretical perspective, drawing on the experiences of Brazil and Mexico. Part II reviews innovation and internationalization policies and their effects on the performance of the services sector. Part III presents a series of case studies on innovation and internationalization linkages in Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica and Mexico. The book concludes that, in order for Latin American countries and firms to upgrade into services value chains, public and private initiatives must generate a host of regional public goods —enhanced investment climates, supply of skills, greater access to finance, improved protection of intellectual property, better value appropriation, enhanced efforts at standardization and quality certification— to strengthen the links between innovation and internationalization.

Essays on Environmental and Health Economics

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Macroeconomic Dynamics of Market Risk Capital Requirements and Credit Supply Interdependence

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

A Review of the Residential Parking Management Program in Bellevue, WA

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Effects of marine reserve protection on the mud crap Scylla serrata in a sex-biased fishery in subtropical Australia

The impact of sex-biased fishing and marine reserve protection on the mud crab Scylla serrata was examined by comparing the catch rates (catch-per-unit-effort, CPUE), mean size, sex ratios and movement of crabs in 2 coastal marine reserves (1.9 and 5.7 km(2)) and 4 fished non-reserve sites in subtropical Australia. Five years after closure, both marine reserves supported higher catch rates and a larger mean size of S. serrata than non-reserve sites. Males dominated catches of S. serrata in both marine reserves, where CPUE was at least twice as high within the reserves compared to non-reserve sites. Male crabs were also 10% larger in the reserves compared to adjacent fished areas, and of the total male catch, over 70% were equal to or greater than legal size compared to less than 50% outside the reserves. The sex ratio of S. serrata was skewed towards females in all nonreserve sites, which was most likely a result of the ban on taking female S. serrata in Moreton Bay. As only male crabs of >= 15 cm CW made up the S. serrata fishery in Moreton Bay, sex ratios of mature male and female crabs were examined, revealing a strong skew (2:1) towards mature males in both marine reserves. Of the 472 S. serrata captured in this study, 338 were tagged in the reserves in order to document movement of the crabs between the reserve and non-reserve sites. Of the 37 recaptured crabs, 73% were recorded inside the reserves, with some spillover (i.e. cross-boundary movement) of crabs recorded in fished areas. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of small (< 6 km(2)) marine reserves for sex-biased exploited fisheries species.

Putting people first? Chinese state-owned enterprises' adjustment to globalisation

This paper analyses the impact of FDI on the employment, productivity, profitability and survival performance of urban SOEs in China, with the aid of a rich panel data set over the period 1999–2005. Our estimation strategy controls for the endogeneity of a number of regressors and accounts for firm-level unobserved heterogeneity. Four key results emerge from the analysis: (i) Firmlevel foreign finance enhances the employment and productivity growth of SOEs, as well as their survival prospects; (ii) Competition from sectoral FDI has a deleterious impact on the growth and survival probability of SOEs without access to any foreign capital; (iii) Export-oriented FDI in downstream sectors has negative performance ramifications; and (iv) There are no discernible spillover effects that can be attributed to FDI in upstream sectors, suggesting limited linkages between multinational firms and SOEs.

Technology sourcing versus technology exploitation:An analysis of US foreign direct investment flows

The traditional paradigm of foreign direct investment (FDI) suggests that FDI is undertaken principally to exploit some firm-specific advantage in a foreign country which provides a locational advantage to the investor. However, recent theoretical work suggests a model of FDI in which the motivation is not to exploit existing technological advantages in a foreign country, but to access such technology and transfer it from the host economy to the investing multinational corporation via spillover effects. This paper tests the technology sourcing versus technology exploiting hypotheses for a panel of sectoral FDI flows between the United States and major OECD nations over a 15 year period. The research makes use of Patel and Vega's (Research Policy, 28, 145-55, 1999) taxonomy of sectors which are likely a priori to exhibit technology sourcing and exploiting behaviour respectively. While there is evidence that FDI flows into the United States are attracted to R and D intensive sectors, very little support is found for the technology sourcing hypothesis either for inward or outward FDI flows. The results suggest that, in aggregate, firm-specific 'ownership' effects remain powerful determinants of FDI flows.

Linking FDI motivation and host economy productivity effects:conceptual and empirical analysis

We develop a taxonomy that relates foreign direct investment (FDI) motivation (technology- and cost-based) to its anticipated effects on host countries domestic productivity. We then empirically examine the effects of FDI into the United Kingdom on domestic productivity, and find that different types of FDI have markedly different productivity spillover effects, which are consistent with the conceptual analysis. The UK gains substantially only from inward FDI motivated by a strong technology-based ownership advantage. As theory predicts, inward FDI motivated by technology-sourcing considerations leads to no productivity spillovers.

Foreign direct investment, technology sourcing and reverse spillovers

Recent theoretical work points to the possibility of foreign direct investment motivated not by 'ownership' advantages which may be exploited by a multinational enterprise but by the desire to access the superior technology of a host nation through direct investment. To be successful, technology sourcing foreign direct investment hinges crucially on the existence of domestic-to-foreign technological externalities within the host country. We test empirically for the existence of such 'reverse spillover' effects for a panel of UK manufacturing industries. The results demonstrate that technology generated by the domestic sector spills over to foreign multinational enterprises, but that this effect is restricted to relatively research and development intensive sectors. There is also evidence that these spillover effects are affected by the spatial concentration of industry, and that learning-by-doing effects are restricted to sectors in which technology sourcing is unlikely to be a motivating influence.

The impact of foreign direct investment on labour productivity in the Chinese electronics industry

Foreign direct investment (FDI) may have a positive impact on labour productivity in recipient industries through direct introduction of capital, technology and management skills and indirectly through spillover effects on domestic firms. This study uses a model intended to examine the overall effects of inward FDI in the Chinese electronics industry. Official data are used for 41 sub-sectors of the industry in 1996 and 1997 having differing levels of FDI. Labour productivity is modelled as dependent on the degree of foreign presence in the industry and other variables, namely capital intensity, human capital and firm size for scale factors. The econometric results suggest that foreign presence in the industry is associated with higher labour productivity. © 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Technology flows, outsourcing and productivity:an analysis of UK trade and FDI

By engaging in trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) with foreign partners, a country can access the R&D and related knowledge stocks of other countries (by accident or by design) and so benefit from those stocks of knowledge at a cost lower than that which would be incurred by developing the knowledge internally. This should lead to beneficial ‘spillover’ effects on the productivity of domestic firms. However, the literature on technology spillovers from trade and FDI is ambiguous in its findings. This may in part be because of the assumption in much of the work that trade and FDI flows are homogeneous in their determinants and thus in their effects. We develop a taxonomy of trade and FDI determinants based on R&D intensity and unit labour cost differentials, and test for the presence of spillovers from inward investment and imports on an extensive sample of UK manufacturing plants. We find that both trade and FDI have measurable spillover effects, but the size of these effects varies depending on the technological and labour cost differentials between the UK and its trading partners. There is therefore an identifiable link between the determinants and effects of trade and FDI which the previous literature has not explored. We also find that absorptive capacity matters for spillovers from FDI, but not from trade. Overall, these findings suggest that the productivity effects of FDI are largely restricted to plants with high absorptive capacity, while the productivity effects of imports occur largely among higher-technology plants regardless of their absorptive capacity.

Exchange controls and the transmission of equity market volatility:the case of the UK

The paper investigates the impact that the relaxation of UK exchange controls in October 1979, had on the transmission of equity market volatility from the UK to other major equity markets. It is suggested that the existence of exchange controls in the UK was an important source of market segmentation which disturbed the transmission of shocks from one country to another, even when shocks contained global information. It is found that when a spillover GARCH(1,1) model is estimated for the five years before and after the removal of exchange controls, volatility shocks spill over from the UK to other markets much more strongly after the removal of exchange controls. This appears to suggest that volatility as well as returns have become more closely related since the UK removed exchange controls.

Determinants and impacts of inward FDI in Japan

The research consists of three empirical studies. The first examines how source country characteristics affect the aggregate FDI inflows in the Japanese economy during the period of 1989-2002. Our results demonstrate that the stable investment climate of the home country is an essential factor indicating FDI inflows to Japan. By contrast, the export performance of the source country is negatively correlated with FDI inflows, indicating that international trade and FDI are substitutes. The second study identifies the determinants of foreign penetration across Japanese manufacturing sectors at the three-digit level during the period of 1997-2003. More importantly, this study examines the moderating effects of keiretsu affiliations on the relationship between various sectoral characteristics and foreign participation. The evidence of both horizontal and vertical keiretsu impacts on foreign penetration depends on not only different proxy measures used for inward FDI, but also on the level of technological sophistication in given sectors. In general, our results demonstrate that horizontally linked keiretsu are positively associated with foreign productions in knowledge-intensive sectors. By contrast, this effect becomes a significant entry barrier to foreign employment in low-tech sectors. The final study evaluates the impacts of a foreign presence on the productivity of Japanese manufacturing firms over the period of 1997-2003. Our results suggest that spillover effects largely differ according to the level of absorptive capacity of indigenous firms.