Subsampling the mean of heavy-tailed dependent observations

We establish the validity of subsampling confidence intervals for themean of a dependent series with heavy-tailed marginal distributions.Using point process theory, we study both linear and nonlinear GARCH-liketime series models. We propose a data-dependent method for the optimalblock size selection and investigate its performance by means of asimulation study.

Association of socioeconomic position with health behaviors and mortality

CONTEXT: Previous studies may have underestimated the contribution of health behaviors to social inequalities in mortality because health behaviors were assessed only at the baseline of the study. OBJECTIVE: To examine the role of health behaviors in the association between socioeconomic position and mortality and compare whether their contribution differs when assessed at only 1 point in time with that assessed longitudinally through the follow-up period. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Established in 1985, the British Whitehall II longitudinal cohort study includes 10 308 civil servants, aged 35 to 55 years, living in London, England. Analyses are based on 9590 men and women followed up for mortality until April 30, 2009. Socioeconomic position was derived from civil service employment grade (high, intermediate, and low) at baseline. Smoking, alcohol consumption, diet, and physical activity were assessed 4 times during the follow-up period. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: All-cause and cause-specific mortality. RESULTS: A total of 654 participants died during the follow-up period. In the analyses adjusted for sex and year of birth, those with the lowest socioeconomic position had 1.60 times higher risk of death from all causes than those with the highest socioeconomic position (a rate difference of 1.94/1000 person-years). This association was attenuated by 42% (95% confidence interval [CI], 21%-94%) when health behaviors assessed at baseline were entered into the model and by 72% (95% CI, 42%-154%) when they were entered as time-dependent covariates. The corresponding attenuations were 29% (95% CI, 11%-54%) and 45% (95% CI, 24%-79%) for cardiovascular mortality and 61% (95% CI, 16%-425%) and 94% (95% CI, 35%-595%) for noncancer and noncardiovascular mortality. The difference between the baseline only and repeated assessments of health behaviors was mostly due to an increased explanatory power of diet (from 7% to 17% for all-cause mortality, respectively), physical activity (from 5% to 21% for all-cause mortality), and alcohol consumption (from 3% to 12% for all-cause mortality). The role of smoking, the strongest mediator in these analyses, did not change when using baseline or repeat assessments (from 32% to 35% for all-cause mortality). CONCLUSION: In a civil service population in London, England, there was an association between socioeconomic position and mortality that was substantially accounted for by adjustment for health behaviors, particularly when the behaviors were assessed repeatedly.

cAMP-dependent chloride secretion mediates tubule enlargement and cyst formation by cultured mammalian collecting duct cells.

Polycystic kidney diseases result from disruption of the genetically defined program that controls the size and geometry of renal tubules. Cysts which frequently arise from the collecting duct (CD) result from cell proliferation and fluid secretion. From mCCD(cl1) cells, a differentiated mouse CD cell line, we isolated a clonal subpopulation (mCCD-N21) that retains morphogenetic capacity. When grown in three-dimensional gels, mCCD-N21 cells formed highly organized tubular structures consisting of a palisade of polarized epithelial cells surrounding a cylindrical lumen. Subsequent addition of cAMP-elevating agents (forskolin or cholera toxin) or of membrane-permeable cAMP analogs (CPT-cAMP) resulted in rapid and progressive dilatation of existing tubules, leading to the formation of cystlike structures. When grown on filters, mCCD-N21 cells exhibited a high transepithelial resistance as well as aldosterone- and/or vasopressin-induced amiloride-sensitive and -insensitive current. The latter was in part inhibited by Na(+)-K(+)-2Cl(-) cotransporter (bumetanide) and chloride channel (NPPB) inhibitors. Real-time PCR analysis confirmed the expression of NKCC1, the ubiquitous Na(+)-K(+)-2Cl(-) cotransporter and cystic fibrosis transmembrane regulator (CFTR) in mCCD-N21 cells. Tubule enlargement and cyst formation were prevented by inhibitors of Na(+)-K(+)-2Cl(-) cotransporters (bumetanide or ethacrynic acid) or CFTR (NPPB or CFTR inhibitor-172). These results further support the notion that cAMP signaling plays a key role in renal cyst formation, at least in part by promoting chloride-driven fluid secretion. This new in vitro model of tubule-to-cyst conversion affords a unique opportunity for investigating the molecular mechanisms that govern the architecture of epithelial tubes, as well as for dissecting the pathophysiological processes underlying cystic kidney diseases.

Systematic study of the static electrical properties of the CO molecule: influence of the basis set size and correlation energy

The influence of the basis set size and the correlation energy in the static electrical properties of the CO molecule is assessed. In particular, we have studied both the nuclear relaxation and the vibrational contributions to the static molecular electrical properties, the vibrational Stark effect (VSE) and the vibrational intensity effect (VIE). From a mathematical point of view, when a static and uniform electric field is applied to a molecule, the energy of this system can be expressed in terms of a double power series with respect to the bond length and to the field strength. From the power series expansion of the potential energy, field-dependent expressions for the equilibrium geometry, for the potential energy and for the force constant are obtained. The nuclear relaxation and vibrational contributions to the molecular electrical properties are analyzed in terms of the derivatives of the electronic molecular properties. In general, the results presented show that accurate inclusion of the correlation energy and large basis sets are needed to calculate the molecular electrical properties and their derivatives with respect to either nuclear displacements or/and field strength. With respect to experimental data, the calculated power series coefficients are overestimated by the SCF, CISD, and QCISD methods. On the contrary, perturbation methods (MP2 and MP4) tend to underestimate them. In average and using the 6-311 + G(3df) basis set and for the CO molecule, the nuclear relaxation and the vibrational contributions to the molecular electrical properties amount to 11.7%, 3.3%, and 69.7% of the purely electronic μ, α, and β values, respectively

Length of activity season drives geographic variation in body size of a widely distributed lizard

Understanding the factors that drive geographic variation in life history is an important challenge in evolutionary ecology. Here, we analyze what predicts geographic variation in life-history traits of the common lizard, Zootoca vivipara, which has the globally largest distribution range of all terrestrial reptile species. Variation in body size was predicted by differences in the length of activity season, while we found no effects of environmental temperature per se. Females experiencing relatively short activity season mature at a larger size and remain larger on average than females in populations with relatively long activity seasons. Interpopulation variation in fecundity was largely explained by mean body size of females and reproductive mode, with viviparous populations having larger clutch size than oviparous populations. Finally, body size-fecundity relationship differs between viviparous and oviparous populations, with relatively lower reproductive investment for a given body size in oviparous populations. While the phylogenetic signal was weak overall, the patterns of variation showed spatial effects, perhaps reflecting genetic divergence or geographic variation in additional biotic and abiotic factors. Our findings emphasize that time constraints imposed by the environment rather than ambient temperature play a major role in shaping life histories in the common lizard. This might be attributed to the fact that lizards can attain their preferred body temperature via behavioral thermoregulation across different thermal environments. Length of activity season, defining the maximum time available for lizards to maintain optimal performance, is thus the main environmental factor constraining growth rate and annual rates of mortality. Our results suggest that this factor may partly explain variation in the extent to which different taxa follow ecogeographic rules.

The application of trend surface models to the analysis of time factors in Swiss cancer mortality.

To study different temporal components on cancer mortality (age, period and cohort) methods of graphic representation were applied to Swiss mortality data from 1950 to 1984. Maps using continuous slopes ("contour maps") and based on eight tones of grey according to the absolute distribution of rates were used to represent the surfaces defined by the matrix of various age-specific rates. Further, progressively more complex regression surface equations were defined, on the basis of two independent variables (age/cohort) and a dependent one (each age-specific mortality rate). General patterns of trends in cancer mortality were thus identified, permitting definition of important cohort (e.g., upwards for lung and other tobacco-related neoplasms, or downwards for stomach) or period (e.g., downwards for intestines or thyroid cancers) effects, besides the major underlying age component. For most cancer sites, even the lower order (1st to 3rd) models utilised provided excellent fitting, allowing immediate identification of the residuals (e.g., high or low mortality points) as well as estimates of first-order interactions between the three factors, although the parameters of the main effects remained still undetermined. Thus, the method should be essentially used as summary guide to illustrate and understand the general patterns of age, period and cohort effects in (cancer) mortality, although they cannot conceptually solve the inherent problem of identifiability of the three components.

Population density and optimal body size.

The population density of an organism is one of the main aspects of its environment, and shoud therefore strongly influence its adaptive strategy. The r/K theory, based on the logistic model, was developed to formalize this influence. K-selectioon is classically thought to favour large body sizes. This prediction, however, cannot be directly derived from the logistic model: some auxiliary hypotheses are therefor implicit. These are to be made explicit if the theory is to be tested. An alternative approach, based on the Euler-Lotka equation, shows that density itself is irrelevant, but that the relative effect of density on adult and juvenile features is crucial. For instance, increasing population will select for a smaller body size if the density affects mainly juvenile growth and/or survival. In this case, density shoud indeed favour large body sizes. The theory appears nevertheless inconsistent, since a probable consequence of increasing body size will be a decrease in the carrying capacity

Extra-pair paternity, testes size and testosterone level in relation to colour polymorphism in the barn owl Tyto alba

In many bird populations, individuals display one of several genetically inherited colour morphs. Colour polymorphism can be maintained by several mechanisms one of which being frequency-dependent selection with colour morphs signalling alternative mating strategies. One morph may be dominant and territorial, and another one adopt a sneaky behaviour to gain access to fertile females. We tested this hypothesis in the barn owl Tyto alba in which coloration varies from reddish-brown to white. This trait is heritable and neither sensitive to the environment in which individuals live nor to body condition. In Switzerland, reddish-brown males were observed to feed their brood at a higher rate and to produce more offspring than white males. This observation lead us to hypothesize that white males may equalise fitness by investing more effort in extra-pair copulations. This hypothesis predicts that lighter Coloured males produce more extra-pair young, have larger testes and higher levels of circulating testosterone. However, our results are not consistent with these three predictions. First, paternity analyses of 54 broods with a total of 211 offspring revealed that only one young was not sired by the male that was feeding it. Second, testes size was not correlated with male plumage coloration suggesting that white males are not sexually more active. Finally, in nestlings at the time of feather growth testosterone level was not related to plumage coloration suggesting that this androgen is not required for the expression of this plumage trait. Our study therefore indicates that in the barn owl colour polymorphism plays no role in the probability of producing extra-pair young.

Double folding with a density-dependent effective interaction and it s analytical approximation

The real part of the optical potential for heavy ion elastic scattering is obtained by double folding of the nuclear densities with a density-dependent nucleon-nucleon effective interaction which was successful in describing the binding, size, and nucleon separation energies in spherical nuclei. A simple analytical form is found to differ from the resulting potential considerably less than 1% all through the important region. This analytical potential is used so that only few points of the folding need to be computed. With an imaginary part of the Woods-Saxon type, this potential predicts the elastic scattering angular distribution in very good agreement with experimental data, and little renormalization (unity in most cases) is needed.

Condition-dependent expression of melanin-based coloration in the Eurasian kestrel.

Melanin is the most common pigment in animal integuments and is responsible for some of the most striking ornaments. A central tenet of sexual selection theory states that melanin-based traits can signal absolute individual quality in any environment only if their expression is condition-dependent. Significant costs imposed by an ornament would ensure that only the highest quality individuals display the most exaggerated forms of the signal. Firm evidence that melanin-based traits can be condition-dependent is still rare in birds. In an experimental test of this central assumption, we report condition-dependent expression of a melanin-based trait in the Eurasian kestrel (Falco tinnunculus). We manipulated nestling body condition by reducing or increasing the number of nestlings soon after hatching. A few days before fledging, we measured the width of sub-terminal black bands on the tail feathers. Compared to nestlings from enlarged broods, individuals raised in reduced broods were in better condition and thereby developed larger sub-terminal bands. Furthermore, in 2 years, first-born nestlings also developed larger sub-terminal bands than their younger siblings that are in poorer condition. This demonstrates that expression of melanin-based traits can be condition-dependent.

Mineralization of organic phosphorus in soil size fractions under different vegetation covers in the north of Rio de Janeiro

In unfertilized, highly weathered tropical soils, phosphorus (P) availability to plants is dependent on the mineralization of organic P (Po) compounds. The objective of this study was to estimate the mineralization of total and labile Po in soil size fractions of > 2.0, 2.0-0.25 and < 0.25 mm under leguminous forest tree species, pasture and "capoeira" (secondary forest) in the 0-10 cm layer of a Red-Yellow Latosol after 90 d of incubation. The type of vegetation cover, soil incubation time and soil size fractions had a significant effect on total P and labile P (Pi and Po) fraction contents. The total average Po content decreased in soil macroaggregates by 25 and 15 % in the > 2.0 and 2.0-0.25 mm fractions, respectively. In contrast, there was an average increase of 90 % of total Po in microaggregates of < 0.25 mm. Labile Po was significantly reduced by incubation in the > 2.0 (-50 %) and < 0.25 mm (-76 %) fractions, but labile Po increased by 35 % in the 2.0-0.25 mm fraction. The Po fraction relative to total extracted P and total labile P within the soil size fractions varied with the vegetation cover and incubation time. Therefore, the distribution of P fractions (Pi and Po) in the soil size fraction revealed the distinctive ability of the cover species to recycle soil P. Consequently, the potential of Po mineralization varied with the size fraction and vegetation cover. Because Po accounted for most of the total labile P, the P availability to plants was closely related to the mineralization of this P fraction.

Circadian and wake-dependent effects on the pupil light reflex in response to narrow-bandwidth light pulses.

PURPOSE: Nonvisual light-dependent functions in humans are conveyed mainly by intrinsically photosensitive retinal ganglion cells, which express melanopsin as photopigment. We aimed to identify the effects of circadian phase and sleepiness across 24 hours on various aspects of the pupil response to light stimulation. METHODS: We tested 10 healthy adults hourly in two 12-hour sessions covering a 24-hour period. Pupil responses to narrow bandwidth red (635 ± 18 nm) and blue (463 ± 24 nm) light (duration of 1 and 30 seconds) at equal photon fluxes were recorded, and correlated with salivary melatonin concentrations at the same circadian phases and to subjective sleepiness ratings. The magnitude of pupil constriction was determined from minimal pupil size. The post-stimulus pupil response was assessed from the pupil size at 6 seconds following light offset, the area within the redilation curve, and the exponential rate of redilation. RESULTS: Among the measured parameters, the pupil size 6 seconds after light offset correlated with melatonin concentrations (P < 0.05) and showed a significant modulation over 24 hours with maximal values after the nocturnal peak of melatonin secretion. In contrast, the post-stimulus pupil response following red light stimulation correlated with subjective sleepiness (P < 0.05) without significant changes over 24 hours. CONCLUSIONS: The post-stimulus pupil response to blue light as a marker of intrinsic melanopsin activity demonstrated a circadian modulation. In contrast, the effect of sleepiness was more apparent in the cone contribution to the pupil response. Thus, pupillary responsiveness to light is under influence of the endogenous circadian clock and subjective sleepiness.

Subclass problem-dependent design for error-correcting output codes

A common way to model multiclass classification problems is by means of Error-Correcting Output Codes (ECOCs). Given a multiclass problem, the ECOC technique designs a code word for each class, where each position of the code identifies the membership of the class for a given binary problem. A classification decision is obtained by assigning the label of the class with the closest code. One of the main requirements of the ECOC design is that the base classifier is capable of splitting each subgroup of classes from each binary problem. However, we cannot guarantee that a linear classifier model convex regions. Furthermore, nonlinear classifiers also fail to manage some type of surfaces. In this paper, we present a novel strategy to model multiclass classification problems using subclass information in the ECOC framework. Complex problems are solved by splitting the original set of classes into subclasses and embedding the binary problems in a problem-dependent ECOC design. Experimental results show that the proposed splitting procedure yields a better performance when the class overlap or the distribution of the training objects conceal the decision boundaries for the base classifier. The results are even more significant when one has a sufficiently large training size.

Lack of seasonal variation in cardiovascular mortality in a country near the equator

Introduction: Mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD) varies according to seasons in countries that are located far away from the equator, likely linked to concomitant seasonal variation in underlying CVD risk factors. We assessed temporal variation in CVD mortality in the Seychelles, a small island state situated near the equator and where the climate is virtually constant throughout the year. Seychelles is one of the few countries located near the equator where all deaths are registered. Methods: We recoded all deaths along broad causes, including CVD (n=5643), stroke (2112) and myocardial infarction (MI, 804). Stroke and MI were considered as the cause of death if the diagnosis appeared in any of the four fields for underlying causes of death in the death certificates. In view of the small size of the population, we pooled all deaths (n=13'163) between 1989 and 2010. Results: Mortality for all CVD, stroke and MI did not systematically vary according to month or season (chi square >0.05). A lack of variation was also observed within sex and age categories. Conclusion: The lack of seasonal variation in CVD mortality in a country located near the equator is consistent with the hypothesis that seasonal variation in CVD decreases along decreasing a country's latitude.

Role of ATP-dependent potassium channels in pulmonary vascular tone of fetal lambs with congenital diaphragmatic hernia.

High mortality in newborn babies with congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH) is principally due to persistent pulmonary hypertension. ATP-dependent potassium (K(ATP)) channels might modulate pulmonary vascular tone. We have assessed the effects of Pinacidil, a K(ATP) channel opener, and glibenclamide (GLI), a K(ATP) channel blocker, in near full-term lambs with and without CDH. In vivo, pulmonary hemodynamics were assessed by means of pressure and blood flow catheters. In vitro, we used isolated pulmonary vessels and immunohistochemistry to detect the presence of K(ATP) channels in pulmonary tissue. In vivo, pinacidil (2 mg) significantly reduced pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR) in both controls and CDH animals. GLI (30 mg) significantly increased pulmonary arterial pressure (PAP) and PVR in control animals only. In vitro, pinacidil (10 microM) relaxed, precontracted arteries from lambs with and without CDH. GLI (10(-5) microM) did not raise the basal tone of vessels. We conclude that activation of K(ATP) channels could be of interest to reduce pulmonary vascular tone in fetal lambs with CDH, a condition often associated with persistent pulmonary hypertension of the newborn.