An ultra-short-term wind power prediction method using “offline classification and optimization, online model matching” based on time series features

The applicability of ultra-short-term wind power prediction (USTWPP) models is reviewed. The USTWPP method proposed extracts featrues from historical data of wind power time series (WPTS), and classifies every short WPTS into one of several different subsets well defined by stationary patterns. All the WPTS that cannot match any one of the stationary patterns are sorted into the subset of nonstationary pattern. Every above WPTS subset needs a USTWPP model specially optimized for it offline. For on-line application, the pattern of the last short WPTS is recognized, then the corresponding prediction model is called for USTWPP. The validity of the proposed method is verified by simulations.

Short-Term Reversals: The Effects of Past Returns and Institutional Exits

Price declines over the previous quarter lead to stronger reversals across the subsequent two months. We explain this finding based on the dual notions that liquidity provision can influence reversals, and agents that act as de facto liquidity providers may be less active in past losers. Supporting these observations, we find that active institutions participate less in losing stocks, and that the magnitude of monthly return reversals fluctuates with changes in the number of active institutional investors. Thus, we argue that fluctuations in liquidity provision with past return performance accounts for the link between return reversals and past returns.

Microstructural evolution and mechanical properties of short-term thermally exposed 9/12Cr heat-resistant steels

The microstructural evolution during short-term (up to 3000 hours) thermal exposure of three 9/12Cr heat-resistant steels was studied, as well as the mechanical properties after exposure. The tempered martensitic lath structure, as well as the precipitation of carbide and MX type carbonitrides in the steel matrix, was stable after 3000 hours of exposure at 873 K (600 °C). A microstructure observation showed that during the short-term thermal exposure process, the change of mechanical properties was caused mainly by the formation and growth of Laves-phase precipitates in the steels. On thermal exposure, with an increase of cobalt and tungsten contents, cobalt could promote the segregation of tungsten along the martensite lath to form Laves phase, and a large size and high density of Laves-phase precipitates along the grain boundaries could lead to the brittle intergranular fracture of the steels.

Cyclosporin A and short-term methotrexate versus cyclosporin A as graft versus host disease prophylaxis in patients with severe aplastic anemia given allogeneic bone marrow transplantation from an HLA-identical sibling:results of a GITMO/EBMT randomized trial

A randomized trial was carried out comparing cyclosporin A (CsA) and short-term methotrexate (MTX) versus CsA alone for graft versus host disease (GVHD) prophylaxis in patients with severe aplastic anemia (SAA) undergoing allogeneic bone marrow transplantation (BMT) from a compatible sibling. Seventy-one patients (median age, 19 years; range, 4-46 years) were randomized to receive either CsA and MTX or CsA alone for the first 3 weeks after BMT. Subsequently, both groups received CsA orally, with gradual drug reduction until discontinuation 8 to 12 months after BMT. Patients randomized in both arms had comparable characteristics and received the same preparative regimen (ie, cyclophosphamide 200 mg/kg over 4 days). The median time for neutrophil engraftment was 17 days (range, 11-31 days) and 12 days (range, 4-45 days) for patients in the CsA/MTX group and the CsA alone group, respectively (P =.01). No significant difference was observed in the probability of either grade 2, grade 3, or grade 4 acute GVHD or chronic GVHD developing in the 2 groups. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of 1-year transplantation-related mortality rates for patients given either CsA/MTX or CsA alone were 3% and 15%, respectively (P =.07). With a median follow-up of 48 months from BMT, the 5-year survival probability is 94% for patients in the CsA/MTX group and 78% for those in the CsA alone group (P =. 05). These data indicate that the use of CsA with MTX is associated with improved survival in patients with SAA who receive transplants from compatible siblings. (Blood. 2000;96:1690-1697)

RAIN EVENTS INFLUENCE SHORT-TERM FEEDING PREFERENCES IN THE SNAIL CEPAEA NEMORALIS

Terrestrial gastropods are both herbivores and detritivores, but the ratio between these two modes of feeding can be highly variable over time. While previous studies have examined long-term seasonal patterns in the consumption of fresh material, mechanisms explaining short-term variation in dietary preferences have not been explored. We used faecal analysis to determine how short-term variation in weather affects the ratio of herbivory to detritivory in the land snail Cepaea nemoralis. Averaged across sampling dates, c. 9% of the faeces were composed of fresh plant material, with the remainder consisting of plant litter and soil. Temperature, relative humidity and soil moisture did not affect the proportional consumption of fresh material; however, snails consumed more soil with increasing temperature. If there had not been a recent precipitation event, the mean proportion of fresh material in the faeces more than doubled on average; however, this increase only occurred in areas of low herbaceous cover. Our results suggest that an increased proportion of snails consume fresh material during dry periods to compensate for water losses. Moreover, our study highlights that studies of dietary composition in the field need to account for short-term variation in feeding
preferences caused by weather.

A novel TRNSYS type for short-term borehole heat exchanger simulation: B2G model

Models of ground source heat pump (GSHP) systems are used as an aid for the correct design and optimization of the system. For this purpose, it is necessary to develop models which correctly reproduce the dynamic thermal behavior of each component in a short-term basis. Since the borehole heat exchanger (BHE) is one of the main components, special attention should be paid to ensuring a good accuracy on the prediction of the short-term response of the boreholes. The BHE models found in literature which are suitable for short-term simulations usually present high computational costs. In this work, a novel TRNSYS type implementing a borehole-to-ground (B2G) model, developed for modeling the short-term dynamic performance of a BHE with low computational cost, is presented. The model has been validated against experimental data from a GSHP system located at Universitat Politècnica de València, Spain. Validation results show the ability of the model to reproduce the short-term behavior of the borehole, both for a step-test and under normal operating conditions.

SHORT-TERM EFFECTS OF SALINITY ON SOME PHYSIOLOGICAL PARAMETERS OF YOUNG OLIVE TREES OF ARBEQUINA, COBRANÇOSA AND GALEGA VARIETIES

SHORT-TERM EFFECTS OF SALINITY ON SOME PHYSIOLOGICAL PARAMETERS OF YOUNG OLIVE TREES OF ARBEQUINA, COBRANÇOSA AND GALEGA VARIETIES Ana Elisa Rato1,4, Renato Coelho1, Margarida Vaz1, Teresa Carola2, Dália Barbosa2, Nádia Silva1, José dos Santos2, Lourenço Machado2, João Godinho2, Luzia Ruas2, Margarida Barradas2, Hernani Pereira2, Sara Porfírio4 1 ICAAM, Universidade de Évora, Apartado 94, 7002-554 Évora, Portugal 2 Master students, Universidade de Évora, Apartado 94, 7002-554 Évora, Portugal 3 Ph.D. student, Universidade de Évora, Apartado 94, 7002-554 Évora, Portugal 4 aerato@uevora.pt Due to the desertification in some regions, the interest in plant’s tolerance to salinity has been increasing, as this response is determining for plant survival in stress conditions. This work reports the investigation of tolerance to salt in two year-old olive trees (Olea europaea L.) of three varieties, Arbequina, Cobrançosa and Galega vulgar. Plants were grown in 10 L plastic pots containing approximately 9 Kg of a sandy granitic soil, on a greenhouse. For 3 months (from the beginning of February to the end of April 2012), they were subjected to three levels of salinity in the irrigation water, 0 mM, 80 mM and 200 mM NaCl (6 plants per salinity level in a total of 18 plants of each variety),. Stomatal conductance (gs) and relative leaf chlorophyll content were assessed on each plant in February, March and April. Mid-day leaf water potential () and soil salinity were measured at the end of the experiment (April). On average, concerning all treatments and dates of determination, stomatal conductance of Arbequina and Galega vulgar was quite similar, around 40 mmol m-2 s-1, but Cobrançosa had a value of gs 36% higher, almost 50% higher (61 mmol m-2 s-1) when compared with the controls (0 mM salt) of the other two varieties. In percentage of controls, there was little difference in gs between varieties and between salinities during February and March. In contrast, in April, after about 90 days of exposure to salt, there was a clear decrease in gs with salt irrigation, proportional to salt concentration. Compared with controls, plants irrigated with 200 mM salt showed around 80% (Arbequina) or 85% (Cobrançosa and Galega vulgar) decrease in gs. Chlorophyll content of leaves showed less than 5% difference between varieties on the average of all treatments and dates of determination. During the course of this experiment, the salinity levels used did not show any relevant effect on chlorophyll content. Overall, at the end of the experimental period (April), leaf water potential () at midday was significantly higher in Cobrançosa (-1,4 MPa) than in Galega vulgar (-1,7 MPa) or Arbequina (-1,8 MPa), and salt decreased  of control plants (-1,25 MPa) by an average 30% (with 80 mM) and 65% (with 200 mM). At the end of the experiment, salinity in the soil irrigated with 0 mM, 80 mM or 200 mM NaCl was, on average of all varieties, 0,2 mS, 1,0 mS or 2,0 mS, respectively. Soil salinity was quite similar in Arbequina and Galega vulgar but about 35% lower in the pots of Cobrançosa, on average of all salt-irrigation levels. Plants of Cobrançosa had higher stomatal conductance, however they showed higher water potential and lower salinity in the soil. These apparently contradictory results seem to suggest that Cobrançosa responds to salt differently from the other two varieties. This issue needs further investigation.

Macrofauna spatial differences within clam dredge-tracks and their implications for short-term fishing effect studies

In situ observations of clam dredging showed that the effects of the dredge on the benthic macrofauna may not be constant during a tow. A sand buffer forms in front of the gear approximately 10m after the beginning of a tow, and this pushes the sediment partially aside.In this study, we analyse differences in abundance, the number of taxa present, diversity, and evenness within sections of dredge-tracks in a disturbed, fished area and a non-fished area along the southern coast of Portugal. These areas were sampled by divers before and after dredge-fishing activity. At each site, three dredge-tracks were produced. These tracks were divided in three longitudinal sections 1start, middle and end) and two transverse sections 1track and edge). Six quadrats were used to sample macrofauna in each section of every track and edge. Our results show differences exist in macro- faunal distribution and abundance across sections of a dredge-track. These differences should be considered in any assessment of the short-term ecological impact of dredges on benthic macrofauna

The immediate and short-term chemosensory impacts of coffee and caffeine on cardiovascular activity

The immediate and short-term chemosensory impacts of coffee and caffeine on cardiovascular activity. Introduction: Caffeine is detected by 5 of the 25 gustatory bitter taste receptors (hTAS2Rs) as well as by intestinal STC-1 cell lines. Thus there is a possibility that caffeine may elicit reflex autonomic responses via chemosensory stimulation. Methods: The cardiovascular impacts of double-espresso coffee, regular (130 mg caffeine) and decaffeinated, and encapsulated caffeine (134 mg) were compared with a placebocontrol capsule. Measures of four post-ingestion phases were extracted from a continuous recording of cardiovascular parameters and contrasted with pre-ingestion measures. Participants (12 women) were seated in all but the last phase when they were standing. Results: Both coffees increased heart rate immediately after ingestion by decreasing both the diastolic interval and ejection time. The increases in heart rate following the ingestion of regular coffee extended for 30 min. Encapsulated caffeine decreased arterial compliance and increased diastolic pressure when present in the gut and later in the standing posture. Discussion: These divergent findings indicate that during ingestion the caffeine in coffee can elicit autonomic arousal via the chemosensory stimulation of the gustatory receptors which extends for at least 30 min. In contrast, encapsulated caffeine can stimulate gastrointestinal receptors and elicit vascular responses involving digestion. Conclusion: Research findings on caffeine are not directly applicable to coffee and vice versa. The increase of heart rate resulting from coffee drinking is a plausible pharmacological explanation for the observation that coffee increases risk for coronary heart disease in the hour after ingestion.

Short-term scheduling considering five-minute and hour-ahead energy resource management

The introduction of new distributed energy resources, based on natural intermittent power sources, in power systems imposes the development of new adequate operation management and control methods. This paper proposes a short-term Energy Resource Management (ERM) methodology performed in two phases. The first one addresses the hour-ahead ERM scheduling and the second one deals with the five-minute ahead ERM scheduling. Both phases consider the day-ahead resource scheduling solution. The ERM scheduling is formulated as an optimization problem that aims to minimize the operation costs from the point of view of a virtual power player that manages the network and the existing resources. The optimization problem is solved by a deterministic mixed-integer non-linear programming approach and by a heuristic approach based on genetic algorithms. A case study considering a distribution network with 33 bus, 66 distributed generation, 32 loads with demand response contracts and 7 storage units has been implemented in a PSCADbased simulator developed in the field of the presented work, in order to validate the proposed short-term ERM methodology considering the dynamic power system behavior.

Real-time energy resources scheduling considering short-term and very short-term wind forecast

This paper proposes an energy resources management methodology based on three distinct time horizons: day-ahead scheduling, hour-ahead scheduling, and real-time scheduling. In each scheduling process it is necessary the update of generation and consumption operation and of the storage and electric vehicles storage status. Besides the new operation condition, it is important more accurate forecast values of wind generation and of consumption using results of in short-term and very short-term methods. A case study considering a distribution network with intensive use of distributed generation and electric vehicles is presented.

Distributed energy resource short-term scheduling using signaled particle swarm optimization

Distributed Energy Resources (DER) scheduling in smart grids presents a new challenge to system operators. The increase of new resources, such as storage systems and demand response programs, results in additional computational efforts for optimization problems. On the other hand, since natural resources, such as wind and sun, can only be precisely forecasted with small anticipation, short-term scheduling is especially relevant requiring a very good performance on large dimension problems. Traditional techniques such as Mixed-Integer Non-Linear Programming (MINLP) do not cope well with large scale problems. This type of problems can be appropriately addressed by metaheuristics approaches. This paper proposes a new methodology called Signaled Particle Swarm Optimization (SiPSO) to address the energy resources management problem in the scope of smart grids, with intensive use of DER. The proposed methodology’s performance is illustrated by a case study with 99 distributed generators, 208 loads, and 27 storage units. The results are compared with those obtained in other methodologies, namely MINLP, Genetic Algorithm, original Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Evolutionary PSO, and New PSO. SiPSO performance is superior to the other tested PSO variants, demonstrating its adequacy to solve large dimension problems which require a decision in a short period of time.

Coordination between mid-term maintenance outage decisions and short-term security-constrained scheduling in smart distribution systems

Distribution systems are the first volunteers experiencing the benefits of smart grids. The smart grid concept impacts the internal legislation and standards in grid-connected and isolated distribution systems. Demand side management, the main feature of smart grids, acquires clear meaning in low voltage distribution systems. In these networks, various coordination procedures are required between domestic, commercial and industrial consumers, producers and the system operator. Obviously, the technical basis for bidirectional communication is the prerequisite of developing such a coordination procedure. The main coordination is required when the operator tries to dispatch the producers according to their own preferences without neglecting its inherent responsibility. Maintenance decisions are first determined by generating companies, and then the operator has to check and probably modify them for final approval. In this paper the generation scheduling from the viewpoint of a distribution system operator (DSO) is formulated. The traditional task of the DSO is securing network reliability and quality. The effectiveness of the proposed method is assessed by applying it to a 6-bus and 9-bus distribution system.

A short-term risk management tool applied to OMEL electricity market using particle swarm optimization

Short-term risk management is highly dependent on long-term contractual decisions previously established; risk aversion factor of the agent and short-term price forecast accuracy. Trying to give answers to that problem, this paper provides a different approach for short-term risk management on electricity markets. Based on long-term contractual decisions and making use of a price range forecast method developed by the authors, the short-term risk management tool presented here has as main concern to find the optimal spot market strategies that a producer should have for a specific day in function of his risk aversion factor, with the objective to maximize the profits and simultaneously to practice the hedge against price market volatility. Due to the complexity of the optimization problem, the authors make use of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to find the optimal solution. Results from realistic data, namely from OMEL electricity market, are presented and discussed in detail.

A data-mining based methodology for wind forecasting

In many countries the use of renewable energy is increasing due to the introduction of new energy and environmental policies. Thus, the focus on the efficient integration of renewable energy into electric power systems is becoming extremely important. Several European countries have already achieved high penetration of wind based electricity generation and are gradually evolving towards intensive use of this generation technology. The introduction of wind based generation in power systems poses new challenges for the power system operators. This is mainly due to the variability and uncertainty in weather conditions and, consequently, in the wind based generation. In order to deal with this uncertainty and to improve the power system efficiency, adequate wind forecasting tools must be used. This paper proposes a data-mining-based methodology for very short-term wind forecasting, which is suitable to deal with large real databases. The paper includes a case study based on a real database regarding the last three years of wind speed, and results for wind speed forecasting at 5 minutes intervals.