A Population-Based Model to Consider the Effect of Seasonal Variation on Serum 25(OH)D and Vitamin D Status.

Background. We elaborated a model that predicts the centiles of the 25(OH)D distribution taking into account seasonal variation. Methods. Data from two Swiss population-based studies were used to generate (CoLaus) and validate (Bus Santé) the model. Serum 25(OH)D was measured by ultra high pressure LC-MS/MS and immunoassay. Linear regression models on square-root transformed 25(OH)D values were used to predict centiles of the 25(OH)D distribution. Distribution functions of the observations from the replication set predicted with the model were inspected to assess replication. Results. Overall, 4,912 and 2,537 Caucasians were included in original and replication sets, respectively. Mean (SD) 25(OH)D, age, BMI, and % of men were 47.5 (22.1) nmol/L, 49.8 (8.5) years, 25.6 (4.1) kg/m(2), and 49.3% in the original study. The best model included gender, BMI, and sin-cos functions of measurement day. Sex- and BMI-specific 25(OH)D centile curves as a function of measurement date were generated. The model estimates any centile of the 25(OH)D distribution for given values of sex, BMI, and date and the quantile corresponding to a 25(OH)D measurement. Conclusions. We generated and validated centile curves of 25(OH)D in the general adult Caucasian population. These curves can help rank vitamin D centile independently of when 25(OH)D is measured.

Lidar measurement of surface melt for a temperate Alpine glacier at the seasonal and hourly scales

This study shows how a new generation of terrestrial laser scanners can be used to investigate glacier surface ablation and other elements of glacial hydrodynamics at exceptionally high spatial and temporal resolution. The study area is an Alpine valley glacier, Haut Glacier d'Arolla, Switzerland. Here we use an ultra-long-range lidar RIEGL VZ-6000 scanner, having a laser specifically designed for measurement of snow- and ice-cover surfaces. We focus on two timescales: seasonal and daily. Our results show that a near-infrared scanning laser system can provide high-precision elevation change and ablation data from long ranges, and over relatively large sections of the glacier surface. We use it to quantify spatial variations in the patterns of surface melt at the seasonal scale, as controlled by both aspect and differential debris cover. At the daily scale, we quantify the effects of ogive-related differences in ice surface debris content on spatial patterns of ablation. Daily scale measurements point to possible hydraulic jacking of the glacier associated with short-term water pressure rises. This latter demonstration shows that this type of lidar may be used to address subglacial hydrologic questions, in addition to motion and ablation measurements.

Differences in seasonal price patterns among second home rentals and hotels: Empirical evidence and practical implications

Hotels and second home rentals are two of the most important tourist accommodation options in Spain. In terms of seasonality, almost all previous studies have analysed tourism demand from the point of view either of total arrivals or the number of tourists lodged in a single accommodation type (hotels, rural accommodation, etc). However, there are no studies focusing on price seasonality orcomparing seasonality among different accommodation types. By using seasonality indicators and a price index constructed by means of hedonic methods, this paper aims to shed some light on seasonal pricing patterns among second home rentals and hotels. The paper relies on a 2004 database of 144 hotels and 1,002 apartments on the Costa Brava (northeast Spain). The results show that prices for second home rentals display a smoother seasonal pattern than hotels due to reduced price differences between shoulder (May and October) and peak periods (August)

Health care workers' influenza vaccination: motivations and mandatory mask policy

BACKGROUND: Vaccination of health care workers (HCW) against seasonal influenza (SI) is recommended but vaccination rate rarely reach >30%. Vaccination coverage against 2009 pandemic influenza (PI) was 52% in our hospital, whilst a new policy requiring unvaccinated HCW to wear a mask during patient care duties was enforced. AIMS: To investigate the determinants of this higher vaccination acceptance for PI and to look for an association with the new mask-wearing policy. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study, involving HCW of three critical departments of a 1023-bed, tertiary-care university hospital in Switzerland. Self-reported 2009-10 SI and 2009 PI vaccination statuses, reasons and demographic data were collected through a literature-based questionnaire. Descriptive statistics, uni- and multivariate analyses were then performed. RESULTS: There were 472 respondents with a response rate of 54%. Self-reported vaccination acceptance was 64% for PI and 53% for SI. PI vaccination acceptance was associated with being vaccinated against SI (OR 9.5; 95% CI 5.5-16.4), being a physician (OR 7.7; 95% CI 3.1-19.1) and feeling uncomfortable wearing a mask (OR 1.7; 95% CI 1.0-2.8). Main motives for refusing vaccination were: preference for wearing a surgical mask (80% for PI, not applicable for SI) and concerns about vaccine safety (64%, 50%) and efficacy (44%, 35%). CONCLUSIONS: The new mask-wearing policy was a motivation for vaccination but also offered an alternative to non-compliant HCW. Concerns about vaccine safety and efficiency and self-interest of health care workers are still main determinants for influenza vaccination acceptance. Better incentives are needed to encourage vaccination amongst non-physician HCW.

Temporal Patterns of Alcohol Consumption and Alcohol-Related Road Accidents in Young Swiss Men: Seasonal, Weekday and Public Holiday Effects.

AIMS: To assess seasonal, weekday, and public holiday effects on alcohol-related road accidents and drinking diaries among young Swiss men. METHODS: Federal road accident data (35,485 accidents) from Switzerland and drinking diary data from a large cohort of young Swiss men (11,930 subjects) were analysed for temporal effects by calendar week, weekday and public holiday (Christmas, New Years, National Day). Alcohol-related accidents were analysed using rate ratios for observed versus expected numbers of accidents and proportions of alcohol-related accidents relative to the total number. Drinking diaries were analysed for the proportion of drinkers, median number of drinks consumed, and the 90th percentile's number of drinks consumed. RESULTS: Several parallel peaks were identified in alcohol-related accidents and drinking diaries. These included increases on Fridays and Saturdays, with Saturday drinking extending until early Sunday morning, an increase during the summer on workdays but not weekends, an increase at the end of the year, and increases on public holidays and the evening before. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest specific time-windows that are associated with increases in drinking and alcohol-related harm. Established prevention measures should be enforced during these time-windows to reduce associated peaks.

Evidence for daily and weekly rhythmicity but not lunar or seasonal rhythmicity of physical activity in a large cohort of individuals from five different countries.

Background Biological rhythmicity has been extensively studied in animals for many decades. Although temporal patterns of physical activity have been identified in humans, no large-scale, multi-national study has been published, and no comparison has been attempted of the ubiquity of activity rhythms at different time scales (such as daily, weekly, monthly, and annual). Methods Using individually worn actigraphy devices, physical activity of 2,328 individuals from five different countries (adults of African descent from Ghana, South Africa, Jamaica, Seychelles, and the United States) was measured for seven consecutive days at different times of the year. Results Analysis for rhythmic patterns identified daily rhythmicity of physical activity in all five of the represented nationalities. Weekly rhythmicity was found in some, but not all, of the nationalities. No significant evidence of lunar rhythmicity or seasonal rhythmicity was found in any of the groups. Conclusions These findings extend previous small-scale observations of daily rhythmicity to a large cohort of individuals from around the world. The findings also confirm the existence of modest weekly rhythmicity but not lunar or seasonal rhythmicity in human activity. These differences in rhythm strength have implications for the management of health hazards of rhythm misalignment. Key Messages Analysis of the pattern of physical activity of 2,328 individuals from five countries revealed strong daily rhythmicity in all five countries, moderate weekly rhythmicity in some countries, and no lunar rhythmicity or seasonal rhythmicity in any of the countries.

Aquaculture production in areas with high seasonal temperature variations: Development of planning tools

Postprint (published version)

The seasonal evolution of high vertical–mode internal waves in a deep reservoir

The causal mechanism and seasonal evolution of the internal wave field in a deep, warm, monomictic reservoirare examined through the analysis of field observations and numerical techniques. The study period extends fromthe onset of thermal stratification in the spring until midsummer in 2005. During this time, wind forcing wasperiodic, with a period of 24 h (typical of land–sea breezes), and the thermal structure in the lake wascharacterized by the presence of a shallow surface layer overlying a thick metalimnion, typical of small to mediumsized reservoirs with deep outtakes. Basin-scale internal seiches of high vertical mode (ranging from mode V3 toV5) were observed in the metalimnion. The structure of the dominant modes of oscillation changed asstratification evolved on seasonal timescales, but in all cases, their periods were close to that of the local windforcing (i.e., 24 h), suggesting a resonant response. Nonresonant oscillatory modes of type V1 and V2 becamedominant after large frontal events, which disrupted the diurnal periodicity of the wind forcing

Merchandising Strategies and Retail Performance for Seasonal Fashion Products

This study presents mathematical methods for evaluation of retail performance with special regard to product sourcing strategies. Forecast accuracy, process lead time, offshore / local sourcing mix and up front / replenishment buying mix are defined as critical success factors in connection with sourcing seasonal products with a fashion content. As success measures, this research focuses on service level, lost sales, product substitute percentage, gross margin, gross margin return on inventory and mark down rate. The accuracy of demand forecast is found to be a fundamental success factor. Forecast accuracy depends on lead time. Lead times are traditionally long and buying decisions are made seven to eight months prior to the start of the selling season. Forecast errors cause stockouts and lost sales. Some of the products bought for the selling season will not be sold and have to be marked down and sold at clearance, causing loss of gross margin. Gross margin percentage is not the best tool for evaluating sourcing decisions and in the context of this study gross margin return on inventory, which combines profitability and assets management, is used. The findings of this research suggest that there are more profitable ways of sourcing products than buying them from low cost offshore sources. Mixing up front and inseason replenishment deliveries, especially when point of sale information is used for improving forecast accuracy, results in better retail performance. Quick Response and Vendor Managed Inventory strategies yield better results than traditional up front buying from offshore even if local purchase prices are higher. Increasing the number of selling seasons, slight over buying for the season in order to

Group preference structures in AHP–group decision making

This paper presents a procedure that allows us to determine the preference structures(PS) associated to each of the different groups of actors that can be identified in a groupdecision making problem with a large number of individuals. To that end, it makesuse of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) (Saaty, 1980) as the technique to solvediscrete multicriteria decision making problems. This technique permits the resolutionof multicriteria, multienvironment and multiactor problems in which subjective aspectsand uncertainty have been incorporated into the model, constructing ratio scales correspondingto the priorities relative to the elements being compared, normalised in adistributive manner (wi = 1). On the basis of the individuals’ priorities we identifydifferent clusters for the decision makers and, for each of these, the associated preferencestructure using, to that end, tools analogous to those of Multidimensional Scaling.The resulting PS will be employed to extract knowledge for the subsequent negotiationprocesses and, should it be necessary, to determine the relative importance of thealternatives being compared using anyone of the existing procedures

Effect of Seasonal Dynamics on Queen Densities of the Argentine Ant (Linepithema Humile) in an Invaded Natural Area of the NE Iberian Peninsula

The annual elimination of large numbers of Argentine ant queens near the advance front of an invasion could be a useful tool for weakening the species’ dispersion and, therefore, limiting its establishment in non-invaded areas. However, before carrying out trials to test the effectiveness of this method it would be essential to have sufficient knowledge of the effect of seasonal dynamics acting on the queens’ densities of the species in order to determine the most favourable period of the year to act. We analyzed the seasonal densities and nest dynamics of Argentine ant queens in an invaded Mediterranean natural ecosystem. We observed that the queens’ density varied depending on the season of the year and that this variation was mainly due to the seasonal dynamics of nest aggregations in winter and ant dispersions in summer. The greatest densities per litre of nest soil were observed in winter (December to March, approximately) and the lowest densities were observed in summer ( June to July). This information is essential for improving current knowledge of the Argentine ant’s biology and developing control methods based on the elimination of queens in invaded natural areas

Improved understanding of drought controls on seasonal variation in Mediterranean forest canopy CO2 and water fluxes through combined in situ measurements and ecosystem modelling

Water stress is a defining characteristic of Mediterranean ecosystems, and is likely to become more severe in the coming decades. Simulation models are key tools for making predictions, but our current understanding of how soil moisture controls ecosystem functioning is not sufficient to adequately constrain parameterisations. Canopy-scale flux data from four forest ecosystems with Mediterranean-type climates were used in order to analyse the physiological controls on carbon and water flues through the year. Significant non-stomatal limitations on photosynthesis were detected, along with lesser changes in the conductance-assimilation relationship. New model parameterisations were derived and implemented in two contrasting modelling approaches. The effectiveness of two models, one a dynamic global vegetation model ('ORCHIDEE'), and the other a forest growth model particularly developed for Mediterranean simulations ('GOTILWA+'), was assessed and modelled canopy responses to seasonal changes in soil moisture were analysed in comparison with in situ flux measurements. In contrast to commonly held assumptions, we find that changing the ratio of conductance to assimilation under natural, seasonally-developing, soil moisture stress is not sufficient to reproduce forest canopy CO2 and water fluxes. However, accurate predictions of both CO2 and water fluxes under all soil moisture levels encountered in the field are obtained if photosynthetic capacity is assumed to vary with soil moisture. This new parameterisation has important consequences for simulated responses of carbon and water fluxes to seasonal soil moisture stress, and should greatly improve our ability to anticipate future impacts of climate changes on the functioning of ecosystems in Mediterranean-type climates.

Evaluation of seasonal changes in chemical composition and antibacterial activity of Elyonurus muticus (sprengel) O. Kuntze (Gramineae)

Aerial parts of Elyonurus muticus were collected in the four seasons of the year in the Brazilian Pantanal and subjected to extractrion with cold ethanol and to hydrodistillation. Sesquiterpenoids (E)-caryophyllene, bicyclogermacrene, spathulenol and caryophyllene oxide were the main components identified in the essential oils and their concentrations varied according to the plant collection period. The essential oils and the ethanolic crude extracts were active against Bacillus cereus MIP 96016, Pseudomonas aeruginosa ATCC 27853 and Staphylococcus aureus ATCC 25923 and were not active against Escherichia coli ATCC 25922. The antibacterial activities varied according to the plant collection period.

Seasonal variation in the composition of volatile oils from Schinus terebinthifolius raddi

Essential oils from leaves, ripe and unripe fruits of Schinus terebinthifolius growing in Brazil were investigated. Oil content from either ripe or unripe fruits was similar (4.65% and 3.98%, respectively). Sesquiterpenes (from 78.0% to 90.4%) dominated the oil content of both leaves and unripe fruit. The essential oils were tested in vitro for their allelopathic activity on germination and radicle growth of Lactuca sativa and Cucumis sativus at 1,000 and 10,000 µg mL-1concentrations. The three samples tested were more active in inhibiting the radicle growth for L. sativa (88.6-92.4%) than for C. sativus (50.5-84.5%) at 10,000 µg mL-1 concentration.

Seasonal variation of the major secondary metabolites present in the extract of Eremanthus mattogrossensis Less (Asteraceae: Vernonieae) leaves

The species Eremanthus mattogrossensis, known as "veludo do cerrado" (cerrado velvet), is native to the Brazilian Cerrado. Because the amount of metabolites present in plants may be influenced by biological and environmental factors, here we conducted an HPLC-DAD-MS/MS investigation of the metabolite concentrations found in the MeOH/H2O extract of the leaves of this species. The main compounds were identified and quantified, and the metabolites were grouped by chemical class (caffeoylquinic acids, flavonoids, and sesquiterpene lactone). Statistical analysis indicated a straight correlation between the quantity of metabolites and seasonality, suggesting that environmental properties elicit important metabolic responses.