Regression-based techniques for statistical decision making in single-case designs

The present study evaluates the performance of four methods for estimating regression coefficients used to make statistical decisions regarding intervention effectiveness in single-case designs. Ordinary least squares estimation is compared to two correction techniques dealing with general trend and one eliminating autocorrelation whenever it is present. Type I error rates and statistical power are studied for experimental conditions defined by the presence or absence of treatment effect (change in level or in slope), general trend, and serial dependence. The results show that empirical Type I error rates do not approximate the nominal ones in presence of autocorrelation or general trend when ordinary and generalized least squares are applied. The techniques controlling trend show lower false alarm rates, but prove to be insufficiently sensitive to existing treatment effects. Consequently, the use of the statistical significance of the regression coefficients for detecting treatment effects is not recommended for short data series.

Comparing N = 1 effect size indices in presence of autocorrelation

Generalization from single-case designs can be achieved by means of replicating individual studies across different experimental units and settings. When replications are available, their findings can be summarized using effect size measurements and integrated through meta-analyses. Several procedures are available for quantifying the magnitude of treatment"s effect in N = 1 designs and some of them are studied in the current paper. Monte Carlo simulations were employed to generate different data patterns (trend, level change, slope change). The experimental conditions simulated were defined by the degrees of serial dependence and phases" length. Out of all the effect size indices studied, the Percent of nonoverlapping data and standardized mean difference proved to be less affected by autocorrelation and perform better for shorter data series. The regression-based procedures proposed specifically for single-case designs did not differentiate between data patterns as well as simpler indices.

Randomization tests for ABAB designs: Comparing-data-division-specific and common distributions

Monte Carlo simulations were used to generate data for ABAB designs of different lengths. The points of change in phase are randomly determined before gathering behaviour measurements, which allows the use of a randomization test as an analytic technique. Data simulation and analysis can be based either on data-division-specific or on common distributions. Following one method or another affects the results obtained after the randomization test has been applied. Therefore, the goal of the study was to examine these effects in more detail. The discrepancies in these approaches are obvious when data with zero treatment effect are considered and such approaches have implications for statistical power studies. Data-division-specific distributions provide more detailed information about the performance of the statistical technique.

Assessing functional relations in single-case designs: Quantitative proposals in the context of the evidence-based movement

In the context of the evidence-based practices movement, the emphasis on computing effect sizes and combining them via meta-analysis does not preclude the demonstration of functional relations. For the latter aim, we propose to augment the visual analysis to add consistency to the decisions made on the existence of a functional relation without losing sight of the need for a methodological evaluation of what stimuli and reinforcement or punishment are used to control the behavior. Four options for quantification are reviewed, illustrated, and tested with simulated data. These quantifications include comparing the projected baseline with the actual treatment measurements, on the basis of either parametric or nonparametric statistics. The simulated data used to test the quantifications include nine data patterns in terms of the presence and type of effect and comprising ABAB and multiple baseline designs. Although none of the techniques is completely flawless in terms of detecting a functional relation only when it is present but not when it is absent, an option based on projecting split-middle trend and considering data variability as in exploratory data analysis proves to be the best performer for most data patterns. We suggest that the information on whether a functional relation has been demonstrated should be included in meta-analyses. It is also possible to use as a weight the inverse of the data variability measure used in the quantification for assessing the functional relation. We offer an easy to use code for open-source software for implementing some of the quantifications.

Assigning and combining probabilities in single-case designs: A second study

The present study builds on a previous proposal for assigning probabilities to the outcomes computed using different primary indicators in single-case studies. These probabilities are obtained comparing the outcome to previously tabulated reference values and reflect the likelihood of the results in case there was no intervention effect. The current study explores how well different metrics are translated into p values in the context of simulation data. Furthermore, two published multiple baseline data sets are used to illustrate how well the probabilities could reflect the intervention effectiveness as assessed by the original authors. Finally, the importance of which primary indicator is used in each data set to be integrated is explored; two ways of combining probabilities are used: a weighted average and a binomial test. The results indicate that the translation into p values works well for the two nonoverlap procedures, with the results for the regression-based procedure diverging due to some undesirable features of its performance. These p values, both when taken individually and when combined, were well-aligned with the effectiveness for the real-life data. The results suggest that assigning probabilities can be useful for translating the primary measure into the same metric, using these probabilities as additional evidence on the importance of behavioral change, complementing visual analysis and professional's judgments.

Análisi d'un sistema informatitzat d'avaluació continuada en grups d'alta densitat de matrícula

Desenvolupar un sistema de seguimentindividualitzat i grupal de les activitatsdocents dels estudiants en assignatures d’alta densitat de matricula per tal de fer efectius els pressupostos d’una veritable avaluació continuada en aquestes condicions.

Aprenentatge de l'estadística en salut

Podeu consultar la Setena trobada de professorat de Ciències de la Salut completa a: http://hdl.handle.net/2445/43352

The process of basic training, applied training, maintaining the performance of an observer

In the field of observational methodology the observer is obviously a central figure, and close attention should be paid to the process through which he or she acquires, applies, and maintains the skills required. Basic training in how to apply the operational definitions of categories and the rules for coding, coupled with the opportunity to use the observation instrument in real-life situations, can have a positive effect in terms of the degree of agreement achieved when one evaluates intra- and inter-observer reliability. Several authors, including Arias, Argudo, & Alonso (2009) and Medina and Delgado (1999), have put forward proposals for the process of basic and applied training in this context. Reid y De Master (1982) focuses on the observer's performance and how to maintain the acquired skills, it being argued that periodic checks are needed after initial training because an observer may, over time, become less reliable due to the inherent complexity of category systems. The purpose of this subsequent training is to maintain acceptable levels of observer reliability. Various strategies can be used to this end, including providing feedback about those categories associated with a good reliability index, or offering re-training in how to apply those that yield lower indices. The aim of this study is to develop a performance-based index that is capable of assessing an observer's ability to produce reliable observations in conjunction with other observers.

Diagnose of the ingestion of Asclepias mellodora St. Hil. by sheep through microhistological analysis of their digestive contents

Asclepias mellodora St. Hil. is a native acute toxic species frequent in the grasslands of the Buenos Aires province, Argentina, whose toxicity had not been assessed until now. This study evaluates the minimal lethal dose of this species for sheep, and the possibility of microscopically recognizing its fragments in gastrointestinal contents as a complementary diagnostic tool in necropsies. Three Frisona sheep (average LW=55±4.5 kg) were dosed via an esophageal tube with each one of the following doses of asclepias: 8.0, 5.0, 2.0 and 0.8 g DM.kg LW-1. Sheep poisoned with the three higher doses died between 10 and 85 h after intoxication, but those receiving the lower dose did not. During necropsies we: 1) determined the dry weight of the contents of rumen+reticulum, omasum+abomasum, and large intestine, 2) estimated the percentages of asclepias fragments by microanalysis correcting for digestion effects on fragment recognition, and 3) calculated the total mass of asclepias in the digestive tract of each animal. For the three higher doses, the mass of asclepias identified in the total ingesta was 12.3±3.4% of the amount supplied, possibly because of the strong diarrhea its ingestion produced. The percentages of asclepias in rumen+reticulum did not differ from the average quantified for the entire tract. The results of this study indicate that the minimal lethal doses of asclepias for sheep is between 2.0 and 0.8g DM·kg LW-1, and that the microhistological analysis of the rumen+reticulum, the easiest region to sample, can be used to confirm the ingestion of this toxic species, although the estimated percentage will be not a good estimator of the ingested percentage.

Ethological activities, ruminal parameters and weight gain of calves supplemented with different amounts of sodium chloride

The daily weight gain, behavioral activities (grazing, ruminating and water consumption) and the number of rumen protozoa, pH, NH3, and the osmolarity of rumen fluid was evaluated for four groups of six calves HPB/Zebu submitted to daily intake of 15, 30, 60 and 90g of NaCl during 135 days (9th Jan. to 24th May 2008).Throughout the experimental period the calves were in perfect health condition and did not show any signs suggestive of chronic sodium poisoning. There was no significant difference in average daily gain of the calves as the intake of NaCl increased. No significant behavioral changes were observed in the activities of grazing and rumination. However, there was a noticeable change in the frequency of water consumption in the calves that ingested 90g/d of NaCl; they went more often to the trough and drank more water than the group that ingested only 15g sodium chloride/d. The osmolarity of ruminal liquid was higher in the group of calves fed 90g of NaCl/d. The pH, NH3 concentration and number of rumen protozoa was within the normal range.

Sodium bicarbonate as prevention of metabolic acidosis in sheep submitted to experimental ruminal acidosis

The aim of this study was to evaluate the preventive effect of sodium bicarbonate on systemic acidosis due to ruminal acidosis, which was induced by ingestion of concentrate after prolonged fasting. Fourteen sheep were divided into three experimental groups: control group (Cg), with four sheep, submitted to fasting without development of ruminal acidosis; no-treated group (NTg), with five sheep with rumen acidosis without preventive treatment; and treated group (Tg), with five sheep with rumen acidosis and preventively treated with sodium bicarbonate. Assessments of ruminal pH and arterial hemogasometry were performed for 48 hours after ingestion of the concentrate. There was a reduction in the ruminal pH in all groups, whereas the Cg showed a reduction only after 24 hours. A reduction in the arterial pH, bicarbonate and base excess in all groups was also noted, indicating systemic metabolic acidosis, but the NTg presented the greatest alteration. It is concluded that sodium bicarbonate prevents systemic metabolic acidosis, reducing its severity in sheep subjected to ruminal acidosis.

Spontaneous poisoning by Ricinus communis (Euphorbiaceae) in cattle

The aim of this study is to report cases of spontaneous poisoning of cattle by Ricinus communis (castor beans) in Paraíba, a semiarid region of northeastern Brazil. The cases were observed in 2 herds on neighboring properties in 2013. Clinical signs developed within 6-24 h and consisted of weakness, tachycardia, dyspnea, profuse watery diarrhea, dehydration, depression, instability, cramps, permanent lateral recumbency and death within 48-72 h. Of the 60 cattle at risk, 19 were affected and 14 died. Five fully recovered after the course of 12 days. Three animals were necropsied. The main gross lesions were hemopericardium, hemothorax, pulmonary edema, petechial hemorrhages in the epicardium and endocardium, ecchymoses at the papillary muscles and suffusions on the intercostal muscles. Hemorrhages were also observed in the abdominal cavity, spleen and mucosa of the abomasum and small intestine. The rumen content was liquid with a large amount of castor bean seeds. There were circular, whitish and focally diffuse areas in the liver parenchyma. The main microscopic lesions consisted of multifocal coagulative myocardial necrosis with the presence of mononuclear cell infiltration and varying degrees of bleeding between cardiac muscle fibers. The abomasum and small intestine mucosae and submucosa had mild edema and mononuclear and polymorphonuclear inflammatory cell infiltration. The diagnosis of R. communis was based on the history of plant consumption, clinical signs, pathology of the disease and the presence of large amounts of castor bean seeds in the forestomachs.

Acute blood volume expansion delays the gastrointestinal transit of a charcoal meal in awake rats

The present study evaluates the effect of blood volume expansion on the gastrointestinal transit of a charchoal meal (2.5 ml of an aqueous suspension consisting of 5% charcoal and 5% gum arabic) in awake male Wistar rats (200-270 g). On the day before the experiments, the rats were anesthetized with ether, submitted to left jugular vein cannulation and fasted with water ad libitum until 2 h before the gastrointestinal transit measurement. Blood volume expansion by iv infusion of 1 ml/min Ringer bicarbonate in volumes of 3, 4 or 5% body weight delayed gastrointestinal transit at 10 min after test meal administration by 21.3-26.7% (P<0.05), but no effect was observed after 1 or 2% body weight expansion. The effect of blood volume expansion (up to 5% body weight) on gastrointestinal transit lasted for at least 60 min (P<0.05). Mean arterial pressure increased transiently and central venous pressure increased and hematocrit decreased (P<0.05). Subdiaphragmatic vagotomy and yohimbine (3 mg/kg) prevented the delay caused by expansion on gastrointestinal transit, while atropine (0.5 mg/kg), L-NAME (2 mg/kg), hexamethonium (10 mg/kg), prazosin (1 mg/kg) or propranolol (2 mg/kg) were ineffective. These data show that blood volume expansion delays the gastrointestinal transit of a charcoal meal and that vagal and yohimbine-sensitive pathways appear to be involved in this phenomenon. The delay in gastrointestinal transit observed here, taken together with the modifications of gastrointestinal permeability to salt and water reported by others, may be part of the mechanisms involved in liquid excess management.

Inhibition of gastric emptying and intestinal transit in anesthetized rats by a Tityus serrulatus scorpion toxin

The effects of a fraction (T1) of Tityus serrulatus scorpion venom prepared by gel filtration on gastric emptying and small intestinal transit were investigated in male Wistar rats. Fasted animals were anesthetized with urethane, submitted to tracheal intubation and right jugular vein cannulation. Scorpion toxin (250 µg/kg) or saline was injected iv and 1 h later a bolus of saline (1.0 ml/100 g) labeled with 99m technetium-phytate (10 MBq) was administered by gavage. After 15 min, animals were sacrificed and the radioactivity remaining in the stomach was determined. Intestinal transit was evaluated by instillation of a technetium-labeled saline bolus (1.0 ml) through a cannula previously implanted in the duodenum. After 60 min, the progression of the marker throughout 7 consecutive gut segments was estimated by the geometric center method. Gastric retention of the liquid test meal in rats injected with scorpion toxin (median: 88%; range: 52-95%) was significantly higher (P<0.02) than in controls (54%; 21-76%), an effect which was not modified by gastric secretion blockade with ranitidine. The progression of the isotope marker throughout the small intestine was significantly slower (P<0.05) in rats treated with toxin (1.2; 1.0-2.5) than in control animals (2.3; 1.0-3.2). Inhibition of both gastric emptying and intestinal transit in rats injected with scorpion toxin suggests an increased resistance to aboral flow, which might be caused by abnormal neurotransmitter release or by the local effects of venom on smooth muscle cells.

Variations in gastric compliance induced by acute blood volume changes in anesthetized rats

The impact of acute volume imbalances on gastric volume (GV) was studied in anesthetized rats (250-300 g). After cervical and femoral vessel cannulation, a balloon catheter was positioned in the proximal stomach. The opposite end of the catheter was connected to a barostat with an electronic sensor coupled to a plethysmometer. A standard ionic solution was used to fill the balloon (about 3.0 ml) and the communicating vessel system, and to raise the reservoir liquid level 4 cm above the animals' xiphoid appendix. Due to constant barostat pressure, GV values were considered to represent the gastric compliance index. All animals were monitored for 90 min. After a basal interval, they were randomly assigned to normovolemic, hypervolemic, hypovolemic or restored protocols. Data were compared by ANOVA followed by Bonferroni's test. Mean arterial pressure (MAP), central venous pressure (CVP) and GV values did not change in normovolemic animals (N = 5). Hypervolemic animals (N = 12) were transfused at 0.5 ml/min with a suspension of red blood cells in Ringer-lactate solution with albumin (12.5 ml/kg), which reduced GV values by 11.3% (P<0.05). Hypovolemic rats (N = 12) were bled up to 10 ml/kg, a procedure that increased GV values by 15.8% (P<0.05). In the restored group (N = 12), shed blood replacement brought GV values back to basal levels in bled animals (P>0.05). MAP and CVP values increased (P<0.05) after hypervolemia but decreased (P<0.05) with hypovolemia. In conclusion, blood volume level modulates gastric compliance, turning the stomach into an adjustable reservoir, which could be part of the homeostatic process to balance blood volume.