Calendar effects and the pricing of risk:the UK evidence

For some time there has been a puzzle surrounding the seasonal behaviour of stock returns. This paper demonstrates that there is an asymmetric relationship between risk and return across the different months of the year. The paper finds that systematic risk is only priced during the months of January, April and July. Variance risk and firm size are priced during several months of the year including January. An analysis of the relative behaviour of size based securities reveals that firm capitalization makes a valuable contribution to the magnitude of risk premiums.

Does lending behaviour of banks in emerging economies vary by ownership? Evidence from the Indian banking sector

While much has been discussed about the relationship between ownership and financial performance of banks in emerging markets, literature about cross-ownership differences in credit market behaviour of banks in emerging economies is sparse. Using a portfolio choice model and bank-level data from India for 9 years (1995–96 to 2003–04), we examine banks’ behaviour in the context of credit markets of an emerging market economy. Our results indicate that, in India, the data for the domestic banks fit well the aforementioned portfolio-choice model, especially for private banks, but the model cannot explain the behaviour of foreign banks. In general, allocation of assets between risk-free government securities and risky credit is affected by past allocation patterns, stock exchange listing (for private banks), risk averseness of banks, regulations regarding treatment of NPA, and ability of banks to recover doubtful credit. It is also evident that banks deal with changing levels of systematic risk by altering the ratio of securitized to non-securitized credit.

Reducing the risk of sexually transmitted infections in genitourinary medicine clinic patients:A systematic review and meta-analysis of behavioural interventions

Objectives: Are behavioural interventions effective in reducing the rate of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) among genitourinary medicine (GUM) clinic patients? Design: Systematic review and meta-analysis of published articles. Data sources: Medline, CINAHL, Embase, PsychINFO, Applied Social Sciences Index and Abstracts, Cochrane Library Controlled Clinical Trials Register, National Research Register (1966 to January 2004). Review methods: Randomised controlled trials of behavioural interventions in sexual health clinic patients were included if they reported change to STI rates or self reported sexual behaviour. Trial quality was assessed using the Jadad score and results pooled using random effects meta-analyses where outcomes were consistent across studies. Results: 14 trials were included; 12 based in the United States. Experimental interventions were heterogeneous and most control interventions were more structured than typical UK care. Eight trials reported data on laboratory confirmed infections, of which four observed a greater reduction in their intervention groups (in two cases this result was statistically significant, p<0.05). Seven trials reported consistent condom use, of which six observed a greater increase among their intervention subjects. Results for other measures of sexual behaviour were inconsistent. Success in reducing STIs was related to trial quality, use of social cognition models, and formative research in the target population. However, effectiveness was not related to intervention format or length. Conclusions: While results were heterogeneous, several trials observed reductions in STI rates. The most effective interventions were developed through extensive formative research. These findings should encourage further research in the United Kingdom where new approaches to preventing STIs are urgently required.

Feelings of vulnerability and effects on driving behaviour:a qualitative study

Feelings of vulnerability in driving can be considered an emotional response to risk perception and the coping strategies adopted could have implications for continued mobility. In a series of focus groups with 48 licensed drivers aged 18-75 years, expressions of vulnerability in driver coping behaviours were examined. Despite feelings of vulnerability appearing low, qualitative thematic analysis revealed a complex array of coping strategies in everyday driving including planning, use of 'co-pilots', self-regulation, avoidance and confrontive coping, i.e. intentional aggression toward other road users. The findings inform future intervention studies to enable appropriate coping strategy selection and prolong independent mobility in older adults. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How well does the theory of planned behaviour predict alcohol consumption? A systematic review and meta-analysis

This study aimed to quantify correlations between theory of planned behaviour (TPB) variables and (i) intentions to consume alcohol and (ii) alcohol consumption. Systematic literature searches identified 40 eligible studies that were meta-analysed. Three moderator analyses were conducted: pattern of consumption, gender of participants and age of participants. Across studies, intentions had the strongest relationship with attitudes (r+ = .62), followed by subjective norms (r+ = .47) and perceived behavioural control (PBC; r+ = .31). Self-efficacy (SE) had a stronger relationship with intentions (r+ = .48) compared with perceived control (PC; r+ = −.10). Intention had the strongest relationship with alcohol consumption (r+ = .54), followed by SE (r+ = .41). In contrast, PBC and PC had negative relationships with alcohol consumption (r+ = −.05 and −.13, respectively). All moderators affected TPB relationships. Patterns of consumption with clear definitions had stronger TPB relations, females reported stronger attitude–intention relations than males, and adults reported stronger attitude–intention and SE–intention relations than adolescents. Recommendations for future research include targeting attitudes and intentions in interventions to reduce alcohol consumption, using clear definitions of alcohol consumption in TPB items to improve prediction and assessing SE when investigating risk behaviours.

Understanding data collection behaviour of mental health practitioners

Failure to detect patients at risk of attempting suicide can result in tragic consequences. Identifying risks earlier and more accurately helps prevent serious incidents occurring and is the objective of the GRiST clinical decision support system (CDSS). One of the problems it faces is high variability in the type and quantity of data submitted for patients, who are assessed in multiple contexts along the care pathway. Although GRiST identifies up to 138 patient cues to collect, only about half of them are relevant for any one patient and their roles may not be for risk evaluation but more for risk management. This paper explores the data collection behaviour of clinicians using GRiST to see whether it can elucidate which variables are important for risk evaluations and when. The GRiST CDSS is based on a cognitive model of human expertise manifested by a sophisticated hierarchical knowledge structure or tree. This structure is used by the GRiST interface to provide top-down controlled access to the patient data. Our research explores relationships between the answers given to these higher-level 'branch' questions to see whether they can help direct assessors to the most important data, depending on the patient profile and assessment context. The outcome is a model for dynamic data collection driven by the knowledge hierarchy. It has potential for improving other clinical decision support systems operating in domains with high dimensional data that are only partially collected and in a variety of combinations.

Dietary analysis and nutritional behaviour in people with and without age-related macular disease

Background and Aims: Consumption of antioxidant nutrients can reduce the risk of progression of age-related macular degeneration (AMD) - the leading cause of visual impairment in adults over the age of 50 years in the UK. Lutein and zeaxanthin (L&Z) are of particular interest because they are selectively absorbed by the central retina. The objectives of this study were to analyse the dietary intake of a group of AMD patients, assess their ability to prepare and cook healthy food, and to make comparisons with people not affected by AMD. Methods: 158 participants with AMD were recruited via the UK charity The Macular Society, and fifty participants without AMD were recruited from optometric practice. A telephone interview was conducted by trained workers where participants completed a 24 hour food diary, and answered questions about cooking and shopping capabilities. Results: In the AMD group, the average L&Z intake was low in for both males and females. Those able to cook a hot meal consumed significantly more L&Z than those who were not able. Most participants were not consuming the recommended dietary allowance of fibre, calcium, vitamin D and E, and calorific intake was also lower than recommendations for their age-group. The non-AMD group consumed more kilocalories and more nutrients than the AMD group, but the L&Z intake was similar to those with AMD. The main factor that influenced participant’s food choices was personal preference. Conclusion: For an ‘informed’ population, many AMD participants were under-consuming nutrients considered to be useful for their condition. Participants without AMD were more likely to reach recommended daily allowance values for energy and a range of nutrients. It is therefore essential to design more effective dietary education and dissemination methods for people with, and at risk of, AMD.

An intervention encouraging planned self-regulation and goal setting in drivers across the lifespan:testing an extended theory of planned behaviour

Previous work has demonstrated that planning behaviours may be more adaptive than avoidance strategies in driving self-regulation, but ways of encouraging planning have not been investigated. The efficacy of an extended theory of planned behaviour (TPB) plus implementation intention based intervention to promote planning self-regulation in drivers across the lifespan was tested. An age stratified group of participants (N=81, aged 18-83 years) was randomly assigned to an experimental or control condition. The intervention prompted specific goal setting with action planning and barrier identification. Goal setting was carried out using an agreed behavioural contract. Baseline and follow-up measures of TPB variables, self-reported, driving self-regulation behaviours (avoidance and planning) and mobility goal achievements were collected using postal questionnaires. Like many previous efforts to change planned behaviour by changing its predictors using models of planned behaviour such as the TPB, results showed that the intervention did not significantly change any of the model components. However, more than 90% of participants achieved their primary driving goal, and self-regulation planning as measured on a self-regulation inventory was marginally improved. The study demonstrates the role of pre-decisional, or motivational components as contrasted with post-decisional goal enactment, and offers promise for the role of self-regulation planning and implementation intentions in assisting drivers in achieving their mobility goals and promoting safer driving across the lifespan, even in the context of unchanging beliefs such as perceived risk or driver anxiety.

Is pregnancy a teachable moment for diet and physical activity behaviour change? An interpretative phenomenological analysis of the experiences of women during their first pregnancy

OBJECTIVES: Pregnancy may provide a 'teachable moment' for positive health behaviour change, as a time when women are both motivated towards health and in regular contact with health care professionals. This study aimed to investigate whether women's experiences of pregnancy indicate that they would be receptive to behaviour change during this period. DESIGN: Qualitative interview study. METHODS: Using interpretative phenomenological analysis, this study details how seven women made decisions about their physical activity and dietary behaviour during their first pregnancy. RESULTS: Two women had required fertility treatment to conceive. Their behaviour was driven by anxiety and a drive to minimize potential risks to the pregnancy. This included detailed information seeking and strict adherence to diet and physical activity recommendations. However, the majority of women described behaviour change as 'automatic', adopting a new lifestyle immediately upon discovering their pregnancy. Diet and physical activity were influenced by what these women perceived to be normal or acceptable during pregnancy (largely based on observations of others) and internal drivers, including bodily signals and a desire to retain some of their pre-pregnancy self-identity. More reasoned assessments regarding benefits for them and their baby were less prevalent and influential. CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest that for women who conceived relatively easily, diet and physical activity behaviour during pregnancy is primarily based upon a combination of automatic judgements, physical sensations, and perceptions of what pregnant women are supposed to do. Health professionals and other credible sources appear to exert less influence. As such, pregnancy alone may not create a 'teachable moment'. Statement of contribution What is already known on this subject? Significant life events can be cues to action with relation to health behaviour change. However, much of the empirical research in this area has focused on negative health experiences such as receiving a false-positive screening result and hospitalization, and in relation to unequivocally negative behaviours such as smoking. It is often suggested that pregnancy, as a major life event, is a 'teachable moment' (TM) for lifestyle behaviour change due to an increase in motivation towards health and regular contact with health professionals. However, there is limited evidence for the utility of the TM model in predicting or promoting behaviour change. What does this study add? Two groups of women emerged from our study: the women who had experienced difficulties in conceiving and had received fertility treatment, and those who had conceived without intervention. The former group's experience of pregnancy was characterized by a sense of vulnerability and anxiety over sustaining the pregnancy which influenced every choice they made about their diet and physical activity. For the latter group, decisions about diet and physical activity were made immediately upon discovering their pregnancy, based upon a combination of automatic judgements, physical sensations, and perceptions of what is normal or 'good' for pregnancy. Among women with relatively trouble-free conception and pregnancy experiences, the necessary conditions may not be present to create a 'teachable moment'. This is due to a combination of a reliance on non-reflective decision-making, perception of low risk, and little change in affective response or self-concept.

A magyar fiatalok jellemzése pénzügyi attitűdjeik és magatartásuk mentén – Vizsgálat a felsőoktatásban tanulók pénzügyi attitűdjeiről és magatartásáról = Characterization of the Hungarian youth with their financial attitudes and behaviours – A survey about the financial behaviour and attitudes of students

A pénzügyi piacok és termékek egyre komplexebbé válnak, ami együtt jár a pénzügyeket illető információs szakadék mélyülésével is – a lakosság egyre kevésbé képes pénzügyeiről körültekintő döntéseket hozni. Jelen tanulmány a magyar felsőoktatásban tanuló fiatalokat pénzügyi attitűdjeik mentén szegmentálja és jellemzi, annak érdekében, hogy hozzájáruljon a pénzügyi kultúra szintjét növelő programok sikerességéhez, legyen az állami indíttatású (pénzügyi edukáció) vagy a versenyszféra által vezérelt. A vizsgált fiatalok alapvetően három csoportba sorolhatók: (1) Konzervatívak, (2) Lázadók és (3) Tapasztaltak. A Konzervatívakra a stabil morális értékrend, alacsony kockázatvállalási hajlandóság jellemző, céljaik között egyaránt találunk rövid és hosszú távúakat is – informáltságuk, és ebből eredően pénzügyi ismeretszintjük alacsony, a hitelekkel szembeni attitűdjük negatív. A Lázadók csoportjára az „Élj a mának!” magatartás a jellemző, vagyis rövid távú céljaik vannak, kevésbé tudatosak, pénzügyi ismeretszintjük alacsony, ugyanakkor nyitottak az újdonságokra és a kockázatvállalási szintjük magasabb a másik két csoporténál. A Tapasztaltak csoportjára a tudatosság és a pénzügyi megfontoltság a jellemző – pénzügyi ismeretszintjük magasabb a másik két csoporténál. Náluk a hosszú távú célok dominálnak, de alacsony kockázatvállalási hajlandóság mellett. _____ Financial markets and financial instruments have become more and more complex in the last decades. Unfortunately, financial literacy of population cannot keep up with the innovation activity of financial sector. By segmenting and describing Hungarian young adults along their financial attitudes, the aim of this study is to provide recommendations to the programs aiming to enhance the development of financial literacy. According to the authors’ results, 18-25 year-old young adults can be categorized as (1) conservatives, (2) rebels and (3) experienced. Conservatives can be characterized by stable moral and values, low risktaking willingness and inappropriate financial knowledge. Both short and long term goals can be explored among their preferences. Conservatives have negative attitude to bank loans. The rebels can be described by the ancient Latin saying: “Carpe Diem”. They have short-term goals and the future financial stability is not an issue for them – their financial literacy is low. However, rebels are open-minded and their risk-taking willingness is greater than the other two group members. Despite of the low level of risk-taking willingness, the highest level of financial literacy is showed by the experienced group. They have long-term goals and are able to receive information about complex financial instruments.

Patch selection behaviour in the presence of environmental constraints

Habitat selection behaviour is the primary way in which organisms are able to regulate encounters with their biotic and abiotic environment. An individual chooses an area that best meets their current needs, particularly regarding safety and the presence of high-quality food. Several physical aspects of the environment can make it difficult for individuals to assess the relative habitat quality of the areas available, thus leading to suboptimal habitat selection. In this thesis, I investigated the way in which two aquatic habitat constraints - obstacles to movement between patches and turbidity - affected the ability of fish to make optimal patch choices, using threespine stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus as a model species. Laboratory experiments showed that when movement between patches was hindered by increasingly challenging obstacles, groups of stickleback did not move as freely between the patches, and thus had greater deviations from the predictions of the Ideal Free Distribution (IFD). I also demonstrated that, unlike other species, stickleback do not use turbid environments to avoid predator detection. A trend was seen towards avoidance of a turbid food patch regardless of risk level, although this was not statistically significant. As expected, the stickleback avoided feeding in the presence of a predator regardless of water clarity. Overall, I found that both turbidity and movement constraints can have significant impacts on patch use and distribution in the threespine stickleback. Both turbidity and ease of transit will impact the distribution of ecologically important species like the threespine stickleback, and therefore should be taken into account when studying habitat selection in the wild.

The food choice at work study: effectiveness of complex workplace dietary interventions on dietary behaviours and diet-related disease risk - study protocol for a clustered controlled trial

Background: Dietary behaviour interventions have the potential to reduce diet-related disease. Ample opportunity exists to implement these interventions in the workplace. The overall aim is to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of complex dietary interventions focused on environmental dietary modification alone or in combination with nutrition education in large manufacturing workplace settings. Methods/design: A clustered controlled trial involving four large multinational manufacturing workplaces in Cork will be conducted. The complex intervention design has been developed using the Medical Research Council's framework and the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) guidelines and will be reported using the TREND statement for the transparent reporting of evaluations with non-randomized designs. It will draw on a soft paternalistic 'nudge' theoretical perspective. It will draw on a soft paternalistic "nudge" theoretical perspective. Nutrition education will include three elements: group presentations, individual nutrition consultations and detailed nutrition information. Environmental dietary modification will consist of five elements: (a) restriction of fat, saturated fat, sugar and salt, (b) increase in fibre, fruit and vegetables, (c) price discounts for whole fresh fruit, (d) strategic positioning of healthier alternatives and (e) portion size control. No intervention will be offered in workplace A (control). Workplace B will receive nutrition education. Workplace C will receive nutrition education and environmental dietary modification. Workplace D will receive environmental dietary modification alone. A total of 448 participants aged 18 to 64 years will be selected randomly. All permanent, full-time employees, purchasing at least one main meal in the workplace daily, will be eligible. Changes in dietary behaviours, nutrition knowledge, health status with measurements obtained at baseline and at intervals of 3 to 4 months, 7 to 9 months and 13 to 16 months will be recorded. A process evaluation and cost-effectiveness economic evaluation will be undertaken. Discussion: A 'Food Choice at Work' toolbox (concise teaching kit to replicate the intervention) will be developed to inform and guide future researchers, workplace stakeholders, policy makers and the food industry. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials, ISRCTN35108237.

The Abundance and Behavioral Ecology of Cape Cod Gray Seals Under Predation Risk From White Sharks

The ultimate goal of wildlife recovery is abundance growth of a species, though it must also involve the reestablishment of the species’ ecological role within ecosystems frequently modified by humans. Reestablishment and subsequent recovery may depend on the species’ degree of adaptive behavior as well as the duration of their functional absence and the extent of ecosystem alteration. In cases of long extirpations or extensive alteration, successful reestablishment may entail adjusting foraging behavior, targeting new prey species, and encountering unfamiliar predatory or competitive regimes. Recovering species must also increasingly tolerate heightened anthropogenic presence, particularly within densely inhabited coastal zones. In recent decades, gray seals (Halichoerus grypus) recovered from exploitation, depletion, and partial extirpation in the Northwest Atlantic. On Cape Cod, MA, USA, gray seals have reestablished growing breeding colonies and seasonally interact with migratory white sharks (Carcarodon carcharias). Though well-studied in portions of their range due to concerns over piscivorous impacts on valuable groundfish, there are broad knowledge gaps regarding their ecological role to US marine ecosystems. Furthermore, there are few studies that explicitly analyze gray seal behavior under direct risk of documented shark predation.

In this dissertation, I apply a behavioral and movement ecology approach to telemetry data to understand gray seal abundance and activity patterns along the coast of Cape Cod. This coastal focus complements extensive research documenting and describing offshore movement and foraging behavior and allows me to address questions about movement decisions and risk allocation. Using beach counts of seals visible in satellite imagery, I estimate the total regional abundance of gray seals using correction factors from haul out behavior and demonstrate a sizeable prey base of gray seals locally. Analyzing intra-annual space use patterns, I document small, concentrated home ranges utilizing nearshore habitats that rapidly expand with shifting activity budgets to target disperse offshore habitats following seasonal declines in white sharks. During the season of dense shark presence, seals conducted abbreviated nocturnal foraging trips structured temporally around divergent use of crepuscular periods. The timing of coastal behavior with different levels of twilight indicate risk allocation patterns with diel cycles of empirical white shark activity. The emergence of risk allocation to explain unique behavioral and spatial patterns observed in these gray seals points to the importance of the restored predator-prey dynamic in gray seal behavior along Cape Cod.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and brown dottyback (Pseudochromis fuscus) movement and feeding behaviour during experiments, 2011

Changes in olfactory-mediated behaviour caused by elevated CO2 levels in the ocean could affect recruitment to reef fish populations because larval fish become more vulnerable to predation. However, it is currently unclear how elevated CO2 will impact the other key part of the predator-prey interaction - the predators. We investigated the effects of elevated CO2 and reduced pH on olfactory preferences, activity levels and feeding behaviour of a common coral reef meso-predator, the brown dottyback (Pseudochromis fuscus). Predators were exposed to either current-day CO2 levels or one of two elevated CO2 levels (~600 µatm or ~950 µatm) that may occur by 2100 according to climate change predictions. Exposure to elevated CO2 and reduced pH caused a shift from preference to avoidance of the smell of injured prey, with CO2treated predators spending approximately 20% less time in a water stream containing prey odour compared with controls. Furthermore, activity levels of fish was higher in the high CO2 treatment and feeding activity was lower for fish in the mid CO2treatment; indicating that future conditions may potentially reduce the ability of the fish to respond rapidly to fluctuations in food availability. Elevated activity levels of predators in the high CO2 treatment, however, may compensate for reduced olfactory ability, as greater movement facilitated visual detection of food. Our findings show that, at least for the species tested to date, both parties in the predator-prey relationship may be affected by ocean acidification. Although impairment of olfactory-mediated behaviour of predators might reduce the risk of predation for larval fishes, the magnitude of the observed effects of elevated CO2 acidification appear to be more dramatic for prey compared to predators. Thus, it is unlikely that the altered behaviour of predators is sufficient to fully compensate for the effects of ocean acidification on prey mortality.

Risk and benefits in lifestyle sports: parkour, law and social value

This paper examines the interrelationship between law and lifestyle sports, viewed through the lens of parkour. We argue that the literature relating to legal approaches to lifestyle sport is currently underdeveloped and so seek to partially fill this lacuna. Hitherto, we argue, the law has been viewed as a largely negative presence, seen particularly in terms of the ways in which counter-cultural activities are policed and regulated, and where such activities are viewed as transgressive or undesirable. We argue that this is a somewhat unsophisticated take on how the law can operate, with law constructed as an outcome of constraints to behaviour (where the law authorises or prohibits), distinct from the legal contexts, environments and spaces in which these relationships occur. We argue that the distinctive settings in which lifestyle sports are practiced needs a more fine-grained analysis as they are settings which bear, and bring to life, laws and regulations that shape how space is to be experienced. We examine specifically the interrelationship between risk and benefit and how the law recognises issues of social utility or value, particularly within the context of lifestyle sport. We seek to move from user-centred constructions of law as an imposition, to a more nuanced position that looks at parkour at the intersections of law, space and lifestyle sport, in order to reveal how law can be used to support and extend claims to space.