913 resultados para risk-based modeling


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Obiettivo del lavoro è stato lo sviluppo e la validazione di nuovi bioassay e biomarker quali strumenti da utilizzare in un approccio ecotossicologico integrato per il biomonitoraggio di ambienti marino-costieri interessati da impatto antropico negli organismi che vivono in tali ambienti. L’ambiente reale impiegato per l’applicazione in campo è la Rada di Augusta (Siracusa, Italia). Una batteria di bioassay in vivo e in vitro è stata indagata quale strumento di screening per la misura della tossicità dei sedimenti. La batteria selezionata ha dimostrato di possedere i requisiti necessari ad un applicazione di routine nel monitoraggio di ambienti marino costieri. L’approccio multimarker basato sull’impiego dell’organismo bioindicatore Mytilus galloprovincialis in esperimenti di traslocazione ha consentito di valutare il potenziale applicativo di nuovi biomarker citologici e molecolari di stress chimico parallelamente a biomarker standardizzati di danno genotossico ed esposizione a metalli pesanti. I mitili sono stati traslocati per 45 giorni nei siti di Brucoli (SR) e Rada di Augusta, rispettivamente sito di controllo e sito impattato. I risultati ottenuti supportano l’applicabilità delle alterazioni morfometriche dei granulociti quale biomarker di effetto, direttamente correlato allo stato di salute degli organismi che vivono in un dato ambiente. Il significativo incremento dell’area dei lisosomi osservato contestualmente potrebbe riflettere un incremento dei processi degradativi e dei processi autofagici. I dati sulla sensibilità in campo suggeriscono una valida applicazione della misura dell’attività di anidrasi carbonica in ghiandola digestiva come biomarker di stress in ambiente marino costiero. L’utilizzo delle due metodologie d’indagine (bioassay e biomarker) in un approccio ecotossicologico integrato al biomonitoraggio di ambienti marino-costieri offre uno strumento sensibile e specifico per la valutazione dell’esposizione ad inquinanti e del danno potenziale esercitato dagli inquinanti sugli organismi che vivono in un dato ambiente, permettendo interventi a breve termine e la messa a punto di adeguati programmi di gestione sostenibile dell’ambiente.

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L’obiettivo del presente lavoro di tesi è stato quello di effettuare, tramite l’applicazione di una metodologia RBM – Risk Based Maintenance, l’analisi dei guasti avvenuti nel biennio 2012-2013 nel termovalorizzatore di rifiuti solidi urbani di Modena gestito dalla società Herambiente.

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The aims of this research study is to explore the opportunity to set up Performance Objectives (POs) parameters for specific risks in RTE products to propose for food industries and food authorities. In fact, even if microbiological criteria for Salmonella and Listeria monocytogenes Ready-to-Eat (RTE) products are included in the European Regulation, these parameters are not risk based and no microbiological criteria for Bacillus cereus in RTE products is present. For these reasons the behaviour of Salmonella enterica in RTE mixed salad, the microbiological characteristics in RTE spelt salad, and the definition of POs for Bacillus cereus and Listeria monocytogenes in RTE spelt salad has been assessed. Based on the data produced can be drawn the following conclusions: 1. A rapid growth of Salmonella enterica may occurr in mixed ingredient salads, and strict temperature control during the production chain of the product is critical. 2. Spelt salad is characterized by the presence of high number of Lactic Acid Bacteria. Listeria spp. and Enterobacteriaceae, on the contrary, did not grow during the shlef life, probably due to the relevant metabolic activity of LAB. 3. The use of spelt and cheese compliant with the suggested POs might significantly reduce the incidence of foodborne intoxications due to Bacillus cereus and Listeria monocytogenes and the proportions of recalls, causing huge economic losses for food companies commercializing RTE products. 4. The approach to calculate the POs values and reported in my work can be easily adapted to different food/risk combination as well as to any changes in the formulation of the same food products. 5. The optimized sampling plans in term of number of samples to collect can be derive in order to verify the compliance to POs values selected.

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The WHO fracture risk assessment tool FRAX® is a computer based algorithm that provides models for the assessment of fracture probability in men and women. The approach uses easily obtained clinical risk factors (CRFs) to estimate 10-year probability of a major osteoporotic fracture (hip, clinical spine, humerus or wrist fracture) and the 10-year probability of a hip fracture. The estimate can be used alone or with femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD) to enhance fracture risk prediction. FRAX® is the only risk engine which takes into account the hazard of death as well as that of fracture. Probability of fracture is calculated in men and women from age, body mass index, and dichotomized variables that comprise a prior fragility fracture, parental history of hip fracture, current tobacco smoking, ever long-term use of oral glucocorticoids, rheumatoid arthritis, other causes of secondary osteoporosis, daily alcohol consumption of 3 or more units daily. The relationship between risk factors and fracture probability was constructed using information of nine population-based cohorts from around the world. CRFs for fracture had been identified that provided independent information on fracture risk based on a series of meta-analyses. The FRAX® algorithm was validated in 11 independent cohorts with in excess of 1 million patient-years, including the Swiss SEMOF cohort. Since fracture risk varies markedly in different regions of the world, FRAX® models need to be calibrated to those countries where the epidemiology of fracture and death is known. Models are currently available for 31 countries across the world. The Swiss-specific FRAX® model was developed very soon after the first release of FRAX® in 2008 and was published in 2009, using Swiss epidemiological data, integrating fracture risk and death hazard of our country. Two FRAX®-based approaches may be used to explore intervention thresholds. They have recently been investigated in the Swiss setting. In the first approach the guideline that individuals with a fracture probability equal to or exceeding that of women with a prior fragility fracture should be considered for treatment is translated into thresholds using 10-year fracture probabilities. In that case the threshold is age-dependent and increases from 16 % at the age of 60 ys to 40 % at the age of 80 ys. The second approach is a cost-effectiveness approach. Using a FRAX®-based intervention threshold of 15 % for both, women and men 50 years and older, should permit cost-effective access to therapy to patients at high fracture probability in our country and thereby contribute to further reduce the growing burden of osteoporotic fractures.

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Eye injuries are a large societal problem in both the military and civilian sectors. Eye injury rates are increasing in recent military conflicts, and there are over 1.9 million eye injuries in the United States civilian sector annually. In order to develop a better understanding of eye injury risk, several previous studies have developed eye injury criteria based on projectile characteristics. While these injury criteria have been used to estimate eye injury potential of impact scenarios, they require that the mass, size and velocity of the projectile are known. It is desirable to develop a method to assess the severity of an eye impact in environments where it would be difficult or impossible to determine these projectile characteristics. The current study presents a measurement technique for monitoring intraocular pressure of the eye under impactloading. Through experimental tests with a custom pressure chamber, a subminiature pressure transducer was validated to be thermally stable and suitable for testing in an impact environment.Once validated, the transducer was utilized intraocularly, inserted through the optic nerve, to measure the pressure of the eye during blunt-projectile impacts. A total of 150 impact tests were performed using projectiles ranging from 3.2 mm to 17.5 mm in diameter. Investigation of the relationship between projectile energy and intraocular pressure lead to the identification of at least two distinct trends. Intraocular pressure and normalized energy measurements indicated a different response for penetrating-type globe rupture injuries with smaller diameter (d < 1 cm)projectiles, and blunt-type globe rupture injuries with larger diameter (d > 1 cm) projectiles. Furthermore, regression analysis indicates that relationships exist between intraocular pressureand projectile energy that may allow quantification of eye injury risk based on pressure data, and also that intraocular pressure measurements of impact may lead to a better understanding of thetransition between penetrating and blunt globe rupture injury mechanisms.

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BACKGROUND: In order to optimise the cost-effectiveness of active surveillance to substantiate freedom from disease, a new approach using targeted sampling of farms was developed and applied on the example of infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR) and enzootic bovine leucosis (EBL) in Switzerland. Relevant risk factors (RF) for the introduction of IBR and EBL into Swiss cattle farms were identified and their relative risks defined based on literature review and expert opinions. A quantitative model based on the scenario tree method was subsequently used to calculate the required sample size of a targeted sampling approach (TS) for a given sensitivity. We compared the sample size with that of a stratified random sample (sRS) with regard to efficiency. RESULTS: The required sample sizes to substantiate disease freedom were 1,241 farms for IBR and 1,750 farms for EBL to detect 0.2% herd prevalence with 99% sensitivity. Using conventional sRS, the required sample sizes were 2,259 farms for IBR and 2,243 for EBL. Considering the additional administrative expenses required for the planning of TS, the risk-based approach was still more cost-effective than a sRS (40% reduction on the full survey costs for IBR and 8% for EBL) due to the considerable reduction in sample size. CONCLUSIONS: As the model depends on RF selected through literature review and was parameterised with values estimated by experts, it is subject to some degree of uncertainty. Nevertheless, this approach provides the veterinary authorities with a promising tool for future cost-effective sampling designs.

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Partner notification (PN or contact tracing) is an important aspect of treating bacterial sexually transmitted infections (STIs), such as Chlamydia trachomatis. It facilitates the identification of new infected cases that can be treated through individual case management. PN also acts indirectly by limiting onward transmission in the general population. However, the impact of PN, both at the level of individuals and the population, remains unclear. Since it is difficult to study the effects of PN empirically, mathematical and computational models are useful tools for investigating its potential as a public health intervention. To this end, we developed an individual-based modeling framework called Rstisim. It allows the implementation of different models of STI transmission with various levels of complexity and the reconstruction of the complete dynamic sexual partnership network over any time period. A key feature of this framework is that we can trace an individual's partnership history in detail and investigate the outcome of different PN strategies for C. trachomatis. For individual case management, the results suggest that notifying three or more partners from the preceding 18 months yields substantial numbers of new cases. In contrast, the successful treatment of current partners is most important for preventing re-infection of index cases and reducing further transmission of C. trachomatis at the population level. The findings of this study demonstrate the difference between individual and population level outcomes of public health interventions for STIs.

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This paper evaluates whether the Swiss monitoring programme for foreign substances in animal products fulfils basic epidemiological quality requirements, and identifies possible sources of bias in the selection of samples. The sampling was analysed over a 4-year period (2002-05). The sampling frame in 37 participating abattoirs covered 51% of all slaughtered pigs, 73% of calves, 68% of beef and 36% of cows. The analysis revealed that some sub-populations as defined by the region of origin were statistically over-represented while others were under-represented. The programme that is in accordance with European Union requirements contained some relevant bias. Patterns of under-sampled regions characterized by management type differences were identified. This could lead to an underestimate of the number of contaminated animals within the programme. Although the current sampling was stratified and partially risk-based, its efficiency could be improved by adopting a more targeted approach.

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Early onset neonatal sepsis due to Group B streptococci (GBS) is responsible for severe morbidity and mortality of newborns. While different preventive strategies to identify women at risk are being recommended, the optimal strategy depends on the incidence of GBS-sepsis and on the prevalence of anogenital GBS colonization. We therefore aimed to assess the Group B streptococci prevalence and its consequences on different prevention strategies. We analyzed 1316 pregnant women between March 2005 and September 2006 at our institution. The prevalence of GBS colonization was determined by selective cultures of anogenital smears. The presence of risk factors was analyzed. In addition, the direct costs of screening and intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis were estimated for different preventive strategies. The prevalence of GBS colonization was 21%. Any maternal intrapartum risk factor was present in 37%. The direct costs of different prevention strategies have been estimated as follows: risk-based: 18,500 CHF/1000 live births, screening-based: 50,110 CHF/1000 live births, combined screening- and risk-based: 43,495/1000 live births. Strategies to prevent GBS-sepsis in newborn are necessary. With our colonization prevalence of 21%, and the intrapartum risk profile of women, the screening-based approach seems to be superior as compared to a risk-based approach.

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Physically-based modeling for computer animation allows to produce more realistic motions in less time without requiring the expertise of skilled animators. But, a computer animation is not only a numerical simulation based on classical mechanics since it follows a precise story-line. One common way to define aims in an animation is to add geometric constraints. There are several methods to manage these constraints within a physically-based framework. In this paper, we present an algorithm for constraints handling based on Lagrange multipliers. After few remarks on the equations of motion that we use, we present a first algorithm proposed by Platt. We show with a simple example that this method is not reliable. Our contribution consists in improving this algorithm to provide an efficient and robust method to handle simultaneous active constraints.

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Classical swine fever (CSF) outbreaks can cause enormous losses in naïve pig populations. How to best minimize the economic damage and number of culled animals caused by CSF is therefore an important research area. The baseline CSF control strategy in the European Union and Switzerland consists of culling all animals in infected herds, movement restrictions for animals, material and people within a given distance to the infected herd and epidemiological tracing of transmission contacts. Additional disease control measures such as pre-emptive culling or vaccination have been recommended based on the results from several simulation models; however, these models were parameterized for areas with high animal densities. The objective of this study was to explore whether pre-emptive culling and emergency vaccination should also be recommended in low- to moderate-density areas such as Switzerland. Additionally, we studied the influence of initial outbreak conditions on outbreak severity to improve the efficiency of disease prevention and surveillance. A spatial, stochastic, individual-animal-based simulation model using all registered Swiss pig premises in 2009 (n=9770) was implemented to quantify these relationships. The model simulates within-herd and between-herd transmission (direct and indirect contacts and local area spread). By varying the four parameters (a) control measures, (b) index herd type (breeding, fattening, weaning or mixed herd), (c) detection delay for secondary cases during an outbreak and (d) contact tracing probability, 112 distinct scenarios were simulated. To assess the impact of scenarios on outbreak severity, daily transmission rates were compared between scenarios. Compared with the baseline strategy (stamping out and movement restrictions) vaccination and pre-emptive culling neither reduced outbreak size nor duration. Outbreaks starting in a herd with weaning piglets or fattening pigs caused higher losses regarding to the number of culled premises and were longer lasting than those starting in the two other index herd types. Similarly, larger transmission rates were estimated for these index herd type outbreaks. A longer detection delay resulted in more culled premises and longer duration and better transmission tracing increased the number of short outbreaks. Based on the simulation results, baseline control strategies seem sufficient to control CSF in low-medium animal-dense areas. Early detection of outbreaks is crucial and risk-based surveillance should be focused on weaning piglet and fattening pig premises.

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Pork occupies an important place in the diet of the population of Nagaland, one of the North East Indian states. We carried out a pilot study along the pork meat production chain, from live animal to end consumer. The goal was to obtain information about the presence of selected food borne hazards in pork in order to assess the risk deriving from these hazards to the health of the local consumers and make recommendations for improving food safety. A secondary objective was to evaluate the utility of risk-based approaches to food safety in an informal food system. We investigated samples from pigs and pork sourced at slaughter in urban and rural environments, and at retail, to assess a selection of food-borne hazards. In addition, consumer exposure was characterized using information about hygiene and practices related to handling and preparing pork. A qualitative hazard characterization, exposure assessment and hazard characterization for three representative hazards or hazard proxies, namely Enterobacteriaceae, T. solium cysticercosis and antibiotic residues, is presented. Several important potential food-borne pathogens are reported for the first time including Listeria spp. and Brucella suis. This descriptive pilot study is the first risk-based assessment of food safety in Nagaland. We also characterise possible interventions to be addressed by policy makers, and supply data to inform future risk assessments.

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There is growing evidence for the development of posttraumatic stress symptoms as a consequence of acute cardiac events. Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients experience a range of acute cardiac symptoms, and these may cluster together in specific patterns. The objectives of this study were to establish distinct symptom clusters in ACS patients, and to investigate whether the experience of different types of symptom clusters are associated with posttraumatic symptom intensity at six months. ACS patients were interviewed in hospital within 48 h of admission, 294 patients provided information on symptoms before hospitalisation, and cluster analysis was used to identify patterns. Posttraumatic stress symptoms were assessed in 156 patients at six months. Three symptom clusters were identified; pain symptoms, diffuse symptoms and symptoms of dyspnea. In multiple regression analyses, adjusting for sociodemographic, clinical and psychological factors, the pain symptoms cluster (β = .153, P = .044) emerged as a significant predictor of posttraumatic symptom severity at six months. A marginally significant association was observed between symptoms of dyspnea and reduced intrusive symptoms at six months (β = -.156, P = .061). Findings suggest acute ACS symptoms occur in distinct clusters, which may have distinctive effects on intensity of subsequent posttraumatic symptoms. Since posttraumatic stress is associated with adverse outcomes, identifying patients at risk based on their symptom experience during ACS may be useful in targeting interventions.

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Image-based modeling of tumor growth combines methods from cancer simulation and medical imaging. In this context, we present a novel approach to adapt a healthy brain atlas to MR images of tumor patients. In order to establish correspondence between a healthy atlas and a pathologic patient image, tumor growth modeling in combination with registration algorithms is employed. In a first step, the tumor is grown in the atlas based on a new multi-scale, multi-physics model including growth simulation from the cellular level up to the biomechanical level, accounting for cell proliferation and tissue deformations. Large-scale deformations are handled with an Eulerian approach for finite element computations, which can operate directly on the image voxel mesh. Subsequently, dense correspondence between the modified atlas and patient image is established using nonrigid registration. The method offers opportunities in atlasbased segmentation of tumor-bearing brain images as well as for improved patient-specific simulation and prognosis of tumor progression.

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Results of studies of the static and dynamic dielectric properties in rod-like 4-n-octyloxy-4'-cyanobiphenyl (8OCB) with isotropic (I)–nematic (N)–smectic A (SmA)–crystal (Cr) mesomorphism, combined with measurements of the low-frequency nonlinear dielectric effect and heat capacity are presented. The analysis is supported by the derivative-based and distortion-sensitive transformation of experimental data. Evidence for the I–N and N–SmA pretransitional anomalies, indicating the influence of tricritical behavior, is shown. It has also been found that neither the N phase nor the SmA phase are uniform and hallmarks of fluid–fluid crossovers can be detected. The dynamics, tested via the evolution of the primary relaxation time, is clearly non-Arrhenius and described via τ(T) = τc(T−TC)−phgr. In the immediate vicinity of the I–N transition a novel anomaly has been found: Δτ ∝ 1/(T − T*), where T* is the temperature of the virtual continuous transition and Δτ is the excess over the 'background behavior'. Experimental results are confronted with the comprehensive Landau–de Gennes theory based modeling.