886 resultados para real option analysis


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This study empirically analyzes the sources of the exchange rate fluctuations in India by employing the structural VAR model. The VAR system consists of three variables, i.e., the nominal exchange rate, the real exchange rate, and the relative output of India and a foreign country. Consistent with most previous studies, the empirical evidence demonstrates that real shocks are the main drives of the fluctuations in real and nominal exchange rates, indicating that the central bank cannot maintain the real exchange rate at its desired level over time.

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The purpose of this paper is to increase current empirical evidence on the relevance of real options for explaining firm investment decisions in oligopolistic markets. We study an actual investment case in the Spanish mobile telephony industry, the entrant in the market of a new operator, Yoigo. We analyze the option to abandon in order to show the relevance of the possibility of selling the company in an oligopolistic market where competitors are not allowed free entrance. The NPV (net present value) of the new entrant is calculated as a starting point. Then, based on the general approach proposed by Copeland and Antikarov (2001), a binomial tree is used to model managerial flexibility in discrete time periods, and value the option to abandon. The strike price of the option is calculated based on incremental EBITDA margins due to selling customers or merging with a competitor.

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Laparoscopic instrument tracking systems are a key element in image-guided interventions, which requires high accuracy to be used in a real surgical scenario. In addition, these systems are a suitable option for objective assessment of laparoscopic technical skills based on instrument motion analysis. This study presents a new approach that improves the accuracy of a previously presented system, which applies an optical pose tracking system to laparoscopic practice. A design enhancement of the artificial markers placed on the laparoscopic instrument as well as an improvement of the calibration process are presented as a means to achieve more accurate results. A technical evaluation has been performed in order to compare the accuracy between the previous design and the new approach. Results show a remarkable improvement in the fluctuation error throughout the measurement platform. Moreover, the accumulated distance error and the inclination error have been improved. The tilt range covered by the system is the same for both approaches, from 90º to 7.5º. The relative position error is better for the new approach mainly at close distances to the camera system

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The work in this paper focuses on the integration of the real options theory for organizational projects in the management of Human Resources, and particularly on the inclusion of the deferral option in collective dismissal procedures. This option has been studied and developed to be applied to ?Expediente de regulación de empleo?, which is the legal form existing in Spain for the collective termination of employment contracts and which organizations turn to when confronted with a negative financial situation, as a way of maintaining their viability. Two main issues which it is hoped to resolve are examined: the search for a source of uncertainty to make the deferral option viable for this type of projects, and the development of a procedure to obtain the value of the option and therefore facilitate decision making. The analysis performed has enabled us to state that the volatility of demand is the source of uncertainty that makes the option viable. The procedure developed by the binomial tree, which is determined by the evolution of demand, is the tool that enables the value of the option to be found.

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Resistance to antibiotics used against Neisseria gonorrhoeae infections is a major public health concern. Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) testing relies on time-consuming culture-based methods. Development of rapid molecular tests for detecting AMR determinants could provide valuable tools for surveillance, epidemiological studies and to inform individual case management. We developed a fast (<1.5 hrs) SYBR-green based real-time PCR method with high resolution melting (HRM) analysis. One triplex and three duplex reactions included two sequences for N. gonorrhoeae identification and seven determinants of resistance to extended-spectrum cephalosporins (ESCs), azithromycin, ciprofloxacin, and spectinomycin. The method was validated by testing 39 previously fully-characterized N. gonorrhoeae strains, 19 commensal Neisseria spp., and an additional panel of 193 gonococcal isolates. Results were compared with culture-based AMR determination. The assay correctly identified N. gonorrhoeae and the presence or absence of the seven AMR determinants. There was some cross-reactivity with non-gonococcal Neisseria species and the detection limit was 10(3)-10(4) gDNA copies/reaction. Overall, the platform accurately detected resistance to ciprofloxacin (sensitivity and specificity, 100%), ceftriaxone (sensitivity 100%, specificity 90%), cefixime (sensitivity 92%, specificity 94%), azithromycin and spectinomycin (both sensitivity and specificity, 100%). In conclusion, our methodology accurately detects mutations generating resistance to antibiotics used to treat gonorrhea. Low assay sensitivity prevents direct diagnostic testing of clinical specimens but this method can be used to screen collections of gonococcal isolates for AMR more quickly than with current culture-based AMR testing.

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Federal Highway Administration, Office of Research, Washington, D.C.

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Mode of access: Internet.

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Traditional real-time control systems are tightly integrated into the industrial processes they govern. Now, however, there is increasing interest in networked control systems. These provide greater flexibility and cost savings by allowing real-time controllers to interact with industrial processes over existing communications networks. New data packet queuing protocols are currently being developed to enable precise real-time control over a network with variable propagation delays. We show how one such protocol was formally modelled using timed automata, and how model checking was used to reveal subtle aspects of the control system's dynamic behaviour.