The probability of sale and price premiums in withdrawn auctioned properties

This paper examines the impact of the auction process of residential properties that whilst unsuccessful at auction sold subsequently. The empirical analysis considers both the probability of sale and the premium of the subsequent sale price over the guide price, reserve and opening bid. The findings highlight that the final achieved sale price is influenced by key price variables revealed both prior to and during the auction itself. Factors such as auction participation, the number of individual bidders and the number of bids are significant in a number of the alternative specifications.

The blended approach to real estate allocations: performance implications of combining an exposure to German Spezialfonds with Global Listed Real Estate Securities

This paper seeks to increase the understanding of the performance implications for investors who choose to combine an unlisted real estate portfolio (in this case German Spezialfonds) with a (global) listed real estate element. We call this a “blended” approach to real estate allocations. For the avoidance of doubt, in this paper we are dealing purely with real estate equity (listed and unlisted) allocations, and do not incorporate real estate debt (listed or unlisted) or direct property into the process. A previous paper (Moss and Farrelly 2014) showed the benefits of the blended approach as it applied to UK Defined Contribution Pension Schemes. The catalyst for this paper has been the recent attention focused on German pension fund allocations, which have a relatively low (real estate) equity content, and a high bond content. We have used the MSCI Spezialfonds Index as a proxy for domestic German institutional real estate allocations, and the EPRA Global Developed Index as a proxy for a global listed real estate allocation. We also examine whether a rules based trading strategy, in this case Trend Following, can improve the risk adjusted returns above those of a simple buy and hold strategy for our sample period 2004-2015. Our findings are that by blending a 30% global listed portfolio with a 70% allocation (as opposed to a typical 100% weighting) to Spezialfonds, the real estate allocation returns increase from 2.88% p.a. to 5.42% pa. Volatility increases, but only to 6.53%., but there is a noticeable impact on maximum drawdown which increases to 19.4%. By using a Trend Following strategy raw returns are improved from 2.88% to 6.94% p.a. , The Sharpe Ratio increases from 1.05 to 1.49 and the Maximum Drawdown ratio is now only 1.83% compared to 19.4% using a buy and hold strategy . Finally, adding this (9%) real estate allocation to a mixed asset portfolio allocation typical for German pension funds there is an improvement in both the raw return (from 7.66% to 8.28%) and the Sharpe Ratio (from 0.91 to 0.98).

The impact of price changes on volume sales of alcoholic beverages in Sweden, 2006-2013

We evaluate whether price elasticities on registered alcohol have changed in the last ten years in Sweden, in particular with regard to the investigation by Asplund et al (2007). We also investigate the fiscal effects of such changes. According to our estimates, price elasticities have increased, and these increases may have substantial effects on estimated changes in tax revenues when commodity tax rates are changed. In particular, commodity tax rates on spirits may have reached “Laffer territory” where tax increases may actually lower tax revenues.

Meeting the Standards: An Analysis of Eight Grade Educational Assesment Test Scores in Maine

This paper examines the impact of socioeconomic factors on eighth grade achievement test scores in the face of federal and state initiatives for educational reform in Maine. We use student-level data over a five year period to provide a framework for understanding the policy implications of these initiatives. We model performance on standardized tests using a seemingly unrelated regressions approach and then determine the likelihood of meeting the standards defined by the adequate yearly progress requirements of the No Child Left Behind Act and Maine Learning Results initiatives. Our results indicate that the key factors influencing a student’s test scores include the education of a student’s parents, special services received for learning disabilities, and alternative measures of academic achievement.

Economic reforms, growth and employment: labour markets in Latin America and the Caribbean

Includes bibliography

The income distribution problem in Latin America and the Caribbean

Includes bibliography

Investment and economic reform in Latin America

Includes bibliography

Dentistry scientometric analysis: A comparative study between Brazil and other most productive countries in the area

This research aims at performing a comparative study between the Brazilian scientific production in Dentistry, from 2000 to 2009 and countries that contribute with at least 2 % of the world's scientific production indexed in the Scopus database. More specifically, we intend to assess the annual Brazilian scientific production by comparing it to the other countries', analyze the Brazilian and other countries' publications in journals with higher impact factors, as well as to highlight the scientific production from these countries and its international visibility, measured by its total and by its average of citations and normalized citation index per year, by comparing the countries, and to compare the index h of such countries. As work procedure, the SCImago Journal and Country Rank was used as source, identifying the group of producing countries in the Dentistry area from 1996 to 2009. From a total of 136 countries, 13 were highlighted as the most productive, each one of them accounting for at least 2 % the worldwide scientific production in the area. The following indicators were raised for each country: number of produced documents, total of citations, self-citations, average of citations per document and index h. We verified that Brazil is the only country in Latin America that is pictured among the most productive ones in the Dentistry area. We observed that Brazil presents a growing visibility and impact in the international scenery, what suggests that its production is constantly consolidating, with Brazilian scientific recognition in the main vehicles of dissemination in the area. © 2012 Akadémiai Kiadó, Budapest, Hungary.

Produção científica dos Programas de Pós-Graduação de excelência no Brasil: colaboração internacional e impacto na área de Zootecnia

This research aimed to study the international scientific collaboration, through co-authorship, and the impact of full papers published in journals Qualis A1 and A2 of Graduate Programs in Animal Science of excellence (2007-2009). Through the indicators of production of graduate evaluation from CAPES, the research gathered the scientific production of three graduate programs, adding up to 125 articles. The citations received were gathered from the SCOPUS database and the impact of journals from the SCImago Journal & Country Rank. In order to investigate the correlation among the indicators analyzed, Pearson’s linear correlation coefficients were calculated. It was observed that the Impact Factor (IF) of the journal may influence the number of citations and that there is a weak trend for association of IFs with the number of coauthor countries. It was not observed a statistically significant correlation between the number of collaborating countries and citations received by the article.

Geração de indicadores de produção e citação científica em revistas de Ciência da Informação: estudo aplicado à base de dados BRAPCI

Pós-graduação em Ciência da Informação - FFC

Índice h de las revistas españolas de Historia según Google Scholar Metrics (2007-2011)

[ES] La aparición de Google Scholar Metrics en abril de 2012 como nuevo sistema de evaluación bibliométrica de revistas científicas a partir del recuento de las citas bibliográficas que estas han recibido en Google Scholar, abre nuevas posibilidades para la medición del impacto de las revistas de humanidades. El objetivo de este trabajo es comprobar el alcance de este producto, a partir del análisis de la cobertura que muestra de las revistas españolas de Historia. Las búsquedas bibliográficas se efectuaron entre el 5 y 6 de diciembre de 2012. Se han identificado 69 revistas, cifra que representa tan solo un 24% de las revistas españolas de Historia. Los valores del índice h alcanzados por las revistas son minúsculos lo que hace que el ranking carezca de poder discriminatorio. Se propone un cambio en el diseño de Google Scholar Metrics para adaptarse a los patrones de producción y citación de la Historia, en particular, y las Humanidades, en general.

Performance Evaluation of the New Connecticut Leading Employment Index Using Lead Profiles and BVAR Models

Dua and Miller (1996) created leading and coincident employment indexes for the state of Connecticut, following Moore's (1981) work at the national level. The performance of the Dua-Miller indexes following the recession of the early 1990s fell short of expectations. This paper performs two tasks. First, it describes the process of revising the Connecticut Coincident and Leading Employment Indexes. Second, it analyzes the statistical properties and performance of the new indexes by comparing the lead profiles of the new and old indexes as well as their out-of-sample forecasting performance, using the Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) method. The new indexes show improved performance in dating employment cycle chronologies. The lead profile test demonstrates that superiority in a rigorous, non-parametric statistic fashion. The mixed evidence on the BVAR forecasting experiments illustrates the truth in the Granger and Newbold (1986) caution that leading indexes properly predict cycle turning points and do not necessarily provide accurate forecasts except at turning points, a view that our results support.

Economics and Ideology: Causal Evidence of the Impact of Economic Conditions on Support for Redistribution and Other Ballot Proposals

There is a large literature demonstrating that positive economic conditions increase support for incumbent candidates, but little understanding of how economic conditions affect preferences for parties and for particulars of their platforms. We ask how exogenous shifts to the value of residents. human capital affect voting behavior in California neighborhoods. As predicted by economic theory, we find that positive economic shocks decrease support for redistributive policies. More notably, we find that conservative voting on a wide variety of ballot propositions--from crime to gambling to campaign finance--is increasing in economic well being.

MBA Program Reputation: Objective Rankings for Students, Employers and Program Administrators

Widely publicized reports of fresh MBAs receiving multiple job offers with six-figure annual salaries leave a long-lasting general impression about the high quality of selected business schools. Business Week reports on a regular basis ranking of MBA programs based on subjective surveys of students and employers. This paper ranks MBA programs using objective data from three different points of view students, employers, and MBA program administrators.

Endogenous Financing and the Long Run Impact of Money Growth on Output and Prices

Most monetary models make use of the quantity theory of money along with a Phillips curve. This implies a strong correlation between money growth and output in the short run (with little or no correlation between money and prices) and a strong long run correlation between money growth and inflation and inflation (with little or no correlation between money growth and output). The empirical evidence between money and inflation is very robust, but the long run money/output relationship is ambiguous at best. This paper attempts to explain this by looking at the impact of money growth on firm financing.