933 resultados para rainfall-runoff empirical statistical model


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The problem of robust beamformer design for mobile communicationsapplications in the presence of moving co-channel sources isaddressed. A generalization of the optimum beamformer based on a statisticalmodel accounting for source movement is proposed. The new methodis easily implemented and is shown to offer dramatic improvements overconventional optimum beamforming for moving sources under a varietyof operating conditions.

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The objective of this work was to analyze future scenarios for palisade grass yield subjected to climate change for the state of São Paulo, Brazil. An empirical crop model was used to estimate yields, according to growing degree-days adjusted by one drought attenuation factor. Climate data from 1963 to 2009 of 23 meteorological stations were used for current climate conditions. Downscaled outputs of two general circulation models were used to project future climate for the 2013-2040 and 2043-2070 periods, considering two contrasting scenarios of temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration increase (high and low). Annual dry matter yield should be from 14 to 42% higher than the current one, depending on the evaluated scenario. Yield variation between seasons (seasonality) and years is expected to increase. The increase of dry matter accumulation will be higher in the rainy season than in the dry season, and this result is more evident for soils with low-water storage capacity. The results varied significantly between regions (<10% to >60%). Despite their higher climate potential, warmer regions will probably have a lower increase in future forage production.

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Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli luoda tavoitemalli TeliaSonera Finland Oyj:n vianhallintapalveluille. Tavoitemalli tuli muodostaa niin, että se tukee laadukasta ja tuottavaa teollista palvelutuotantoa. Tavoitemalli muodostettiin suhteellisen laajan teoriakatsauksen perusteella, joka tehtiin tiedon näkökulmasta. Palvelujen hallinnan viitekehyksessä tutkittiin palvelujen suorituskykyä, jossa erityisesti paneuduttiin laatuun, tuottavuuteen ja palvelutuotannon psykososiaaliseen työympäristöön. Tähän kokonaisuuteen yhdistettiin tutkimustietoa palvelujen teollistamisesta, sekä otettiin huomioon tietointensiivisen organisaation yleiset menestystekijät. Näin muodostettiin tietointensiivisen palvelutuotannon hallinnan ja kehittämisen viitekehys, jota sovellettiin vianhallintapalvelujen tavoitetilan muodostamiseen. Vianhallinnan tavoitetila testattiinosin empiirisesti, mutta lisätutkimusta tarvitaan työssä muodostetun teoreettisen viitekehyksen arviointiin.

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Le concept de responsiveness ou « responsivité » a été proposé dans le domaine de la recherche en psychothérapie pour décrire l'influence mutuelle qui s'exerce continuellement entre patient et thérapeute. La nature responsive des psychothérapies pose alors un problème majeur aux chercheurs, qui adoptent généralement des plans de recherche impliquant des liens de cause à effet et sont en échec dans leur entreprise de mieux comprendre le changement thérapeutique. L'objectif de notre travail est de proposer des pistes pour répondre à ce problème. Nous avons adopté la méthode d'étude de cas, qui permet une analyse en profondeur et en contexte des processus de changement. Dans les deux premières phases de la recherche, nous nous situions dans une approche spécifique à la recherche qualitative en psychothérapie. Nous avons tout d'abord analysé comment le changement s'effectuait chez le patient, en identifiant pas à pas le niveau d'assimilation de ses expériences problématiques. Nous avons ensuite tenté d'appréhender le rôle du thérapeute dans le processus de changement. Notre objectif était d'analyser comment la responsivité du thérapeute pouvait faciliter le processus de changement chez le patient à chaque instant de la thérapie. En suivant une procédure inspirée de l'analyse de la tâche, nous avons identifié pour chaque niveau d'assimilation des interventions thérapeutiques suivies de progression, et élaboré un modèle empirique séquentiel. Dans la troisième phase de la recherche, nous avons effectué un tournant dans notre parcours et sommes allée du côté des sciences du langage. En adoptant une approche dialogique du discours, notre objectif était d'éclairer notre objet d'étude à partir d'une nouvelle perspective et d'ouvrir la réflexion. Nous avons ainsi pu répondre à certaines limites rencontrées dans les premières phases de la recherche, et faire émerger de nouvelles questions et perspectives pour l'étude des processus de changement dans une dimension interactive. -- The concept of responsiveness was developed in psychotherapy research to describe the mutual and constant influence between patient and therapist. The responsive nature of psychotherapy is a serious problem for researchers, who generally adopt research designs involving cause-effect reasoning and fail to better understand therapeutic change. The purpose of our work is to propose some viable possibilities to respond to this problem. We chose the case study method, which enables an analysis in depth and in context of change processes. In the two first phases of research, our approach was specific to qualitative psychotherapy research. We first analyzed how change occurred in the patient, by identifying moment-by-moment the level of assimilation of his or her problematic experiences. We then tried to apprehend the therapist role in the change process. Our aim was to analyze how the therapist responsiveness could facilitate the patient change process at any moment of psychotherapy. We followed a procedure inspired by task analysis and, for each level of assimilation, we identified therapist interventions followed by progression, and elaborated an empirical sequential model. The third phase of research was a turning point, as we went in the field of linguistics. We adopted a dialogical approach of discourse to open up reflection. Thus, we could answer some limitations encountered in the first phases of research, and new questions and perspectives to study change process taking into account the interactive dimension emerged.

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We show that the quasifission paths predicted by the one-body dissipation dynamics, in the slowest phase of a binary reaction, follow a quasistatic path, which represents a sequence of states of thermal equilibrium at a fixed value of the deformation coordinate. This establishes the use of the statistical particle-evaporation model in the case of dynamical time-evolving systems. Pre- and post-scission multiplicities of neutrons and total multiplicities of protons and α particles in fission reactions of 63Cu+92Mo, 60Ni+100Mo, 63Cu+100Mo at 10 MeV/u and 20Ne+144,148,154Sm at 20 MeV/u are reproduced reasonably well with statistical model calculations performed along dynamic trajectories whose slow stage (from the most compact configuration up to the point where the neck starts to develop) lasts some 35×10−21 s.

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"This paper will discuss the major developments in the area of fingerprint" "identification that followed the publication of the National Research Council (NRC, of the US National Academies of Sciences) report in 2009 entitled: Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States: A Path Forward. The report portrayed an image of a field of expertise used for decades without the necessary scientific research-based underpinning. The advances since the report and the needs in selected areas of fingerprinting will be detailed. It includes the measurement of the accuracy, reliability, repeatability and reproducibility of the conclusions offered by fingerprint experts. The paper will also pay attention to the development of statistical models allow- ing assessment of fingerprint comparisons. As a corollary of these developments, the next challenge is to reconcile a traditional practice domi- nated by deterministic conclusions with the probabilistic logic of any statistical model. There is a call for greater candour and fingerprint experts will need to communicate differently on the strengths and limitations of their findings. Their testimony will have to go beyond the blunt assertion" "of the uniqueness of fingerprints or the opinion delivered ispe dixit."

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[spa] El objetivo de este trabajo es corroborar la afirmación de la ONU de que el deporte es una herramienta poderosa para el progreso y el desarrollo. En este contexto, examinamos si el fútbol puede considerarse un indicador de desarrollo a nivel internacional. Un modelo empírico econométrico se diseña con el fin de analizar el desarrollo en términos de PIB per cápita, así como en términos del Índice de Desarrollo Humano. Se utiliza información transversal y temporal. Los resultados sugieren que la clasificación de la FIFA de selecciones nacionales puede ser utilizada para complementar nuestra comprensión del desarrollo multidimensional, en particular, en aquellos países donde la disponibilidad de información no es tan buena como los investigadores desearían.

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[spa] El objetivo de este trabajo es corroborar la afirmación de la ONU de que el deporte es una herramienta poderosa para el progreso y el desarrollo. En este contexto, examinamos si el fútbol puede considerarse un indicador de desarrollo a nivel internacional. Un modelo empírico econométrico se diseña con el fin de analizar el desarrollo en términos de PIB per cápita, así como en términos del Índice de Desarrollo Humano. Se utiliza información transversal y temporal. Los resultados sugieren que la clasificación de la FIFA de selecciones nacionales puede ser utilizada para complementar nuestra comprensión del desarrollo multidimensional, en particular, en aquellos países donde la disponibilidad de información no es tan buena como los investigadores desearían.

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[spa] El objetivo de este trabajo es corroborar la afirmación de la ONU de que el deporte es una herramienta poderosa para el progreso y el desarrollo. En este contexto, examinamos si el fútbol puede considerarse un indicador de desarrollo a nivel internacional. Un modelo empírico econométrico se diseña con el fin de analizar el desarrollo en términos de PIB per cápita, así como en términos del Índice de Desarrollo Humano. Se utiliza información transversal y temporal. Los resultados sugieren que la clasificación de la FIFA de selecciones nacionales puede ser utilizada para complementar nuestra comprensión del desarrollo multidimensional, en particular, en aquellos países donde la disponibilidad de información no es tan buena como los investigadores desearían.

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Temporary streams are those water courses that undergo the recurrent cessation of flow or the complete drying of their channel. The structure and composition of biological communities in temporary stream reaches are strongly dependent on the temporal changes of the aquatic habitats determined by the hydrological conditions. Therefore, the structural and functional characteristics of aquatic fauna to assess the ecological quality of a temporary stream reach cannot be used without taking into account the controls imposed by the hydrological regime. This paper develops methods for analysing temporary streams' aquatic regimes, based on the definition of six aquatic states that summarize the transient sets of mesohabitats occurring on a given reach at a particular moment, depending on the hydrological conditions: Hyperrheic, Eurheic, Oligorheic, Arheic, Hyporheic and Edaphic. When the hydrological conditions lead to a change in the aquatic state, the structure and composition of the aquatic community changes according to the new set of available habitats. We used the water discharge records from gauging stations or simulations with rainfall-runoff models to infer the temporal patterns of occurrence of these states in the Aquatic States Frequency Graph we developed. The visual analysis of this graph is complemented by the development of two metrics which describe the permanence of flow and the seasonal predictability of zero flow periods. Finally, a classification of temporary streams in four aquatic regimes in terms of their influence over the development of aquatic life is updated from the existing classifications, with stream aquatic regimes defined as Permanent, Temporary-pools, Temporary-dry and Episodic. While aquatic regimes describe the long-term overall variability of the hydrological conditions of the river section and have been used for many years by hydrologists and ecologists, aquatic states describe the availability of mesohabitats in given periods that determine the presence of different biotic assemblages. This novel concept links hydrological and ecological conditions in a unique way. All these methods were implemented with data from eight temporary streams around the Mediterranean within the MIRAGE project. Their application was a precondition to assessing the ecological quality of these streams.

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[cat] Presentem un model estadístic de l’especialització vitícola a la província de Barcelona cap el 1860 que combina la pressió boserupiana de l’augment de població, l’atracció de la demanda induïda per un creixement de tipus smithià (mesurada per les distancies horàries al port més proper), i l’adequació dels sòls disponibles per sembrar gra o plantar ceps (mesurada per l’estès hídric, el pendent i el risc de glaçades). L’assoliment global d’uns nivells de R2 ajustats que oscil·len entre 0,608 i 0,826 poden considerar-se força bons. Creiem que la desigualtat en la propietat de la terra també va jugar un paper molt important, però l’hem hagut d’ometre de moment per manca de dades estadístiques. També cal aprofundir en el tractament del problema de possible endogeneïtat derivat de l’ús de variables socio-demogràfiques.

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[cat] Presentem un model estadístic de l’especialització vitícola a la província de Barcelona cap el 1860 que combina la pressió boserupiana de l’augment de població, l’atracció de la demanda induïda per un creixement de tipus smithià (mesurada per les distancies horàries al port més proper), i l’adequació dels sòls disponibles per sembrar gra o plantar ceps (mesurada per l’estès hídric, el pendent i el risc de glaçades). L’assoliment global d’uns nivells de R2 ajustats que oscil·len entre 0,608 i 0,826 poden considerar-se força bons. Creiem que la desigualtat en la propietat de la terra també va jugar un paper molt important, però l’hem hagut d’ometre de moment per manca de dades estadístiques. També cal aprofundir en el tractament del problema de possible endogeneïtat derivat de l’ús de variables socio-demogràfiques.

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The comparative QSAR is a tool for validating any statistical model that seems to be reasonable in describing an interaction between a bioactive new chemical entity, BIONCE, and the biological system. In order to deeper the understanding of the relationships and the meaning of parameters within the model it is necessary some kind of lateral validation. This validation can be accomplished by chemical procedures using physicochemical organic reactions and by means of biological systems. In this paper we review some of such comparisons and also present a lateral validation between the same set of antimicrobial hydrazides acting against Saccharomyces cerevisiae yeast and Escherichia coli bacterium cells. QSARs are presented to shed light in this important way of stating that the QSAR model is not the endpoint, but the beginning.

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It is a well known phenomenon that the constant amplitude fatigue limit of a large component is lower than the fatigue limit of a small specimen made of the same material. In notched components the opposite occurs: the fatigue limit defined as the maximum stress at the notch is higher than that achieved with smooth specimens. These two effects have been taken into account in most design handbooks with the help of experimental formulas or design curves. The basic idea of this study is that the size effect can mainly be explained by the statistical size effect. A component subjected to an alternating load can be assumed to form a sample of initiated cracks at the end of the crack initiation phase. The size of the sample depends on the size of the specimen in question. The main objective of this study is to develop a statistical model for the estimation of this kind of size effect. It was shown that the size of a sample of initiated cracks shall be based on the stressed surface area of the specimen. In case of varying stress distribution, an effective stress area must be calculated. It is based on the decreasing probability of equally sized initiated cracks at lower stress level. If the distribution function of the parent population of cracks is known, the distribution of the maximum crack size in a sample can be defined. This makes it possible to calculate an estimate of the largest expected crack in any sample size. The estimate of the fatigue limit can now be calculated with the help of the linear elastic fracture mechanics. In notched components another source of size effect has to be taken into account. If we think about two specimens which have similar shape, but the size is different, it can be seen that the stress gradient in the smaller specimen is steeper. If there is an initiated crack in both of them, the stress intensity factor at the crack in the larger specimen is higher. The second goal of this thesis is to create a calculation method for this factor which is called the geometric size effect. The proposed method for the calculation of the geometric size effect is also based on the use of the linear elastic fracture mechanics. It is possible to calculate an accurate value of the stress intensity factor in a non linear stress field using weight functions. The calculated stress intensity factor values at the initiated crack can be compared to the corresponding stress intensity factor due to constant stress. The notch size effect is calculated as the ratio of these stress intensity factors. The presented methods were tested against experimental results taken from three German doctoral works. Two candidates for the parent population of initiated cracks were found: the Weibull distribution and the log normal distribution. Both of them can be used successfully for the prediction of the statistical size effect for smooth specimens. In case of notched components the geometric size effect due to the stress gradient shall be combined with the statistical size effect. The proposed method gives good results as long as the notch in question is blunt enough. For very sharp notches, stress concentration factor about 5 or higher, the method does not give sufficient results. It was shown that the plastic portion of the strain becomes quite high at the root of this kind of notches. The use of the linear elastic fracture mechanics becomes therefore questionable.

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Esterification reactions of glycerol with lauric acid in solvent free system were carried out using lipases from several sources. All lipases were immobilized on polysiloxane-polyvinyl alcohol particles by covalent binding with high activity recovered. Among the tested enzymes, the Candida antarctica lipase allowed to attain the highest molar conversion (76%), giving similar proportions of monolaurin, dilaurin and low amount of trilaurin. To further improve the process, the Response Surface Methodology (RSM) was used and optima temperature and molar ratio glycerol to lauric acid were found to be 45 ºC and 5:1, respectively. Under these conditions, 31.35% of monolaurin concentrations were attained and this result was in close agreement with the statistical model prediction.