Methodologies for calibration and predictive analysis of a watershed model

The use of a fitted parameter watershed model to address water quantity and quality management issues requires that it be calibrated under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. However, rarely does model calibration result in a unique parameter set. Parameter nonuniqueness can lead to predictive nonuniqueness. The extent of model predictive uncertainty should be investigated if management decisions are to be based on model projections. Using models built for four neighboring watersheds in the Neuse River Basin of North Carolina, the application of the automated parameter optimization software PEST in conjunction with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) is demonstrated. Parameter nonuniqueness is illustrated, and a method is presented for calculating many different sets of parameters, all of which acceptably calibrate a watershed model. A regularization methodology is discussed in which models for similar watersheds can be calibrated simultaneously. Using this method, parameter differences between watershed models can be minimized while maintaining fit between model outputs and field observations. In recognition of the fact that parameter nonuniqueness and predictive uncertainty are inherent to the modeling process, PEST's nonlinear predictive analysis functionality is then used to explore the extent of model predictive uncertainty.

Mapping the royal road and other hierarchical functions

In this paper we present a technique for visualising hierarchical and symmetric, multimodal fitness functions that have been investigated in the evolutionary computation literature. The focus of this technique is on landscapes in moderate-dimensional, binary spaces (i.e., fitness functions defined over {0, 1}(n), for n less than or equal to 16). The visualisation approach involves an unfolding of the hyperspace into a two-dimensional graph, whose layout represents the topology of the space using a recursive relationship, and whose shading defines the shape of the cost surface defined on the space. Using this technique we present case-study explorations of three fitness functions: royal road, hierarchical-if-and-only-if (H-IFF), and hierarchically decomposable functions (HDF). The visualisation approach provides an insight into the properties of these functions, particularly with respect to the size and shape of the basins of attraction around each of the local optima.

Padrões de uso de habitat do boto-cinza (Sotalia guianensis) na região da foz do rio Doce, costa norte do Espírito Santo, Sudeste do Brasil

Entre março de 2011 e dezembro de 2012 foram realizadas 30 saídas de campo para avaliar os padrões de uso de habitat e estrutura de grupo de Sotalia guianensis na região da foz do rio Doce, costa norte do Espírito Santo. A coleta de dados foi realizada com auxílio de uma embarcação a partir de rotas pré-determinadas distribuídas homogeneamente na área de estudo. Informações sobre as variáveis ambientais foram coletadas a cada hora de amostragem e a cada grupo de golfinhos avistado. Através da análise de Cluster foram identificados três diferentes habitats baseados na similaridade entre variáveis ambientais. Durante 242hs48min de amostragem foram percorridos 1.523km e 119 grupos de botos-cinza foram avistados. Grupos de Sotalia guianensis, assim como indivíduos imaturos, foram observados ao longo de todo o ano na área de estudo, não apresentando diferença sazonal entre as estações seca (abril a setembro) e chuvosa (outubro a março). Os grupos apresentaram uma média de 9,9 indivíduos. Animais imaturos estavam presentes na maioria dos grupos (71%), apresentando uma relação direta com o número de adultos. Os botos-cinza apresentaram o uso quase exclusivo da região marinha aberta adjacente à desembocadura do rio apontando um padrão de uso de habitats heterogêneo, onde as áreas de maior concentração de golfinhos não corresponderam às áreas preferenciais de alimentação. Os resultados obtidos neste trabalho refletem como S. guianensis responde a complexidade dos fatores bióticos e abióticos da área de estudo, apontando um padrão de uso de habitat diferenciado para a espécie.

Mapping the Obama administration's response to the Arab Spring

When the Arab Spring broke out, the United States was in a quandary over how to handle the crisis in its attempt to balance its moral obligations and ideals without undercutting its strategic interests and those of its close allies. Flaws in US diplomatic approach have contributed to one of the most serious foreign policy crisis for a US administration to date with consequential upheaval and erosion of the US-built balance of power. The reactions and policy responses of the Obama administration highlight the difficulties in grasping with the new reality in the Middle East and in enunciating a policy platform that could combine American interests and values.

Piezoresistive sensors for force mapping of hip-prostheses

The success of artificial prosthetic replacements depends on the fixation of the artificial prosthetic component after being implanted in the thighbone. The materials for fixation are subject to mechanical stresses, which originate permanent deformations, incipient cracks and even fatigue fractures. This work shows the possibility of monitoring the mechanical stress over time in prosthesis. In this way, highly sensitive silicon thin-film piezoresistive sensors were developed attached to prosthesis and their results compared with commercial strain gauge sensors. Mechanical stress-strain experiments were performed in compressive mode, during 10,000 cycles. Experimental data was acquired at mechanical vibration frequencies of 0.5 Hz, 1 Hz and 5 Hz, and sent to a computer by means of a wireless link. The results show that there is a decrease in sensitivity of the thin-film silicon piezoresistive sensors when they are attached to the prosthesis, but this decrease does not compromise its monitoring performance. The sensitivity, compared to that of commercial strain gauges, is much larger due to their higher gauge factors (-23.5), when compared to the GFs of commercial sensors (2).

Mapping Culture and Compromised Art in the Era of Globalization

This work presents an analysis of the cultural and artistic field, positively compromised with social and political questions. The authors start with the categorization of the idea of culture and move to vindication art movements. These movements, which followed the first vanguards and worked from the compromise with “otherness”, are at the origin of the contemporary denomination of political art. In this context, the authors approach the origins of activist art, referring to issues of gender, multiculturalism, globalization, and poverty. The different forms of presenting content are also an object of analysis: from art tradition to the contamination of daily life, from local to global, from street contact to digital.

Predictive Optimal Matrix Converter Control for a Dynamic Voltage Restorer with Flywheel Energy Storage

This paper presents a predictive optimal matrix converter controller for a flywheel energy storage system used as Dynamic Voltage Restorer (DVR). The flywheel energy storage device is based on a steel seamless tube mounted as a vertical axis flywheel to store kinetic energy. The motor/generator is a Permanent Magnet Synchronous Machine driven by the AC-AC Matrix Converter. The matrix control method uses a discrete-time model of the converter system to predict the expected values of the input and output currents for all the 27 possible vectors generated by the matrix converter. An optimal controller minimizes control errors using a weighted cost functional. The flywheel and control process was tested as a DVR to mitigate voltage sags and swells. Simulation results show that the DVR is able to compensate the critical load voltage without delays, voltage undershoots or overshoots, overcoming the input/output coupling of matrix converters.

Occupational exposure to environmental tobacco smoke in hospitality venues: are genetic- or proteomics-based biomarkers predictive of respiratory diseases?

Environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) is recognized as an occupational hazard in the hospitality industry. Although Portuguese legislation banned smoking in most indoor public spaces, it is still allowed in some restaurants/bars, representing a potential risk to the workers’ health, particularly for chronic respiratory diseases. The aims of this work were to characterize biomarkers of early genetic effects and to disclose proteomic signatures associated to occupational exposure to ETS and with potential to predict respiratory diseases development. A detailed lifestyle survey and clinical evaluation (including spirometry) were performed in 81 workers from Lisbon restaurants. ETS exposure was assessed through the level of PM 2.5 in indoor air and the urinary level of cotinine. The plasma samples were immunodepleted and analysed by 2D-SDSPAGE followed by in-gel digestion and LC-MS/MS. DNA lesions and chromosome damage were analysed innlymphocytes and in exfoliated buccal cells from 19 cigarette smokers, 29 involuntary smokers, and 33 non-smokers not exposed to tobacco smoke. Also, the DNA repair capacity was evaluated using an ex vivo challenge comet assay with an alkylating agent (EMS). All workers were considered healthy and recorded normal lung function. Interestingly, following 2D-DIGE-MS (MALDI-TOF/TOF), 61 plasma proteins were found differentially expressed in ETS-exposed subjects, including 38 involved in metabolism, acute-phase respiratory inflammation, and immune or vascular functions. On the other hand, the involuntary smokers showed neither an increased level of DNA/chromosome damage on lymphocytes nor an increased number of micronuclei in buccal cells, when compared to non-exposed non-smokers. Noteworthy, lymphocytes challenge with EMS resulted in a significantly lower level of DNA breaks in ETS-exposed as compared to non-exposed workers (P<0.0001) suggestive of an adaptive response elicited by the previous exposure to low levels of ETS. Overall, changes in proteome may be promising early biomarkers of exposure to ETS. Likewise, alterations of the DNA repair competence observed upon ETS exposure deserves to be further understood. Work supported by Fundação Calouste Gulbenkian, ACSS and FCT/Polyannual Funding Program.

Ecologia de mosquitos (Diptera: Culicidae) em áreas do Parque Nacional da Serra da Bocaina, Brasil.I - Distribuição por habitat

OBJETIVO: Estabelecer a influência exercida por três diferentes biótopos em áreas do Parque Nacional da Serra da Bocaina (PNSB) sobre a fauna local de mosquitos. MÉTODOS: Foram realizadas capturas mensais em ambiente silvestre e domiciliar, em isca humana, durante três diferentes períodos do dia, pelo período de 24 meses consecutivos, de janeiro de 1991 a dezembro de 1992. RESULTADOS: Foram capturados 11.808 espécimes adultos, pertencentes a 28 espécies. Ru. reversa e An. cruzii foram predominantes, respectivamente 52,5% e 17,9% do total de mosquitos. Ru. reversa representou 59,4% do total de espécimes no ambiente de mata fechada, seguida por Ru. frontosa com 10,5% e An. cruzii com 9,9%. No ambiente formado por campos de altitude e matas de galeria, o An. cruzii predominou com 48,1%, seguido por Ru. reversa com 28,1%. No ambiente modificado pelo homem, o An. cruzii predominou com 73,7% dos espécimes. Coquillettidia chrysonotum foi a única que se apresentou preferencialmente nesse biótopo: 14,9% no intra, 19,4% no peri e 65,7% no extradomicílio. An. cruzii e Ru. reversa foram constantes em todos os ambientes ao longo do ano. CONCLUSÕES: Com exceção de Cq. chrysonotum, com preferência pelo ambiente modificado pelo homem, os mosquitos apresentam hábitos assinantrópicos no PNSB. An. cruzii, embora assinantrópico, se aproxima e adentra o domicílio para realizar a hematofagia. A presença do Ae. serratus no extra e peridomicílio reforça a importância epidemiológica como vetora potencial de arboviroses. Os Sabethini apresentaram-se exclusivamente silvestres.

Geostatistical Mapping of Outfall Plume Dispersion Data gathered with an autonomous underwater vehicle

The main purpose of this study was to examine the applicability of geostatistical modeling to obtain valuable information for assessing the environmental impact of sewage outfall discharges. The data set used was obtained in a monitoring campaign to S. Jacinto outfall, located off the Portuguese west coast near Aveiro region, using an AUV. The Matheron’s classical estimator was used the compute the experimental semivariogram which was fitted to three theoretical models: spherical, exponential and gaussian. The cross-validation procedure suggested the best semivariogram model and ordinary kriging was used to obtain the predictions of salinity at unknown locations. The generated map shows clearly the plume dispersion in the studied area, indicating that the effluent does not reach the near by beaches. Our study suggests that an optimal design for the AUV sampling trajectory from a geostatistical prediction point of view, can help to compute more precise predictions and hence to quantify more accurately dilution. Moreover, since accurate measurements of plume’s dilution are rare, these studies might be very helpful in the future for validation of dispersion models.

Mapping atmospheric pollutants emissions in European countries

In this paper we present a methodology which enables the graphical representation, in a bi-dimensional Euclidean space, of atmospheric pollutants emissions in European countries. This approach relies on the use of Multidimensional Unfolding (MDU), an exploratory multivariate data analysis technique. This technique illustrates both the relationships between the emitted gases and the gases and their geographical origins. The main contribution of this work concerns the evaluation of MDU solutions. We use simulated data to define thresholds for the model fitting measures, allowing the MDU output quality evaluation. The quality assessment of the model adjustment is thus carried out as a step before interpretation of the gas types and geographical origins results. The MDU maps analysis generates useful insights, with an immediate substantive result and enables the formulation of hypotheses for further analysis and modeling.

Fast optimum-predictive control and capacitor voltage balancing strategy for bipolar back-to-back NPC converters in high-voltage direct current transmission systems

Multilevel power converters have been introduced as the solution for high-power high-voltage switching applications where they have well-known advantages. Recently, full back-to-back connected multilevel neutral point diode clamped converters (NPC converter) have been used inhigh-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission systems. Bipolar-connected back-to-back NPC converters have advantages in long-distance HVDCtransmission systems over the full back-to-back connection, but greater difficulty to balance the dc capacitor voltage divider on both sending and receiving end NPC converters. This study shows that power flow control and dc capacitor voltage balancing are feasible using fast optimum-predictive-based controllers in HVDC systems using bipolar back-to-back-connected five-level NPC multilevel converters. For both converter sides, the control strategytakes in account active and reactive power, which establishes ac grid currents in both ends, and guarantees the balancing of dc bus capacitor voltages inboth NPC converters. Additionally, the semiconductor switching frequency is minimised to reduce switching losses. The performance and robustness of the new fast predictive control strategy, and its capability to solve the DC capacitor voltage balancing problem of bipolar-connected back-to-back NPCconverters are evaluated.