Interleukin-1 receptor antagonist gene (IL-1RN) polymorphism is a predictive factor of clinical pregnancy after IVF.

BACKGROUND: Only 25% of IVF transfer cycles lead to a clinical pregnancy, calling for continued technical progress but also more in depth analysis of patients' individual characteristics. The interleukin-1 (IL-1) system and matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) are strongly implicated in embryo implantation. The genes coding for IL-1Ra (gene symbol IL-1RN), IL-1beta, MMP2 and MMP9 bear functional polymorphisms. We analysed the maternal genetic profile at these polymorphic sites in IVF patients, to determine possible correlations with IVF outcome. METHODS: One hundred and sixty women undergoing an IVF cycle were enrolled and a buccal smear was obtained. The presence of IL-1RN variable number of tandem repeats and IL-1B + 3953, MMP2-1306 and MMP9-1562 single nucleotide substitutions were determined. Patients were divided into pregnancy failures (119), biochemical pregnancies (8) and clinical pregnancies (33). RESULTS: There was a 40% decrease in IL-1RN*2 allele frequency (P = 0.024) and a 45% decrease in IL-1RN*2 carrier status in the clinical pregnancy group as compared to the pregnancy failure group (P = 0.017). This decrease was still statistically significant after a multivariate logistic regression analysis. The likelihood of a clinical pregnancy was decreased accordingly in IL-1RN*2 carriers: odds ratio = 0.349, 95% confidence interval = 0.2-0.8, P = 0.017. The IL-1B, MMP2 and MMP9 polymorphisms showed no correlation with IVF outcome. CONCLUSIONS: IL-1RN*2 allele carriage is associated with a poor prognosis of achieving a pregnancy after IVF.

Molecular clock is involved in predictive circadian adjustment of renal function.

Renal excretion of water and major electrolytes exhibits a significant circadian rhythm. This functional periodicity is believed to result, at least in part, from circadian changes in secretion/reabsorption capacities of the distal nephron and collecting ducts. Here, we studied the molecular mechanisms underlying circadian rhythms in the distal nephron segments, i.e., distal convoluted tubule (DCT) and connecting tubule (CNT) and the cortical collecting duct (CCD). Temporal expression analysis performed on microdissected mouse DCT/CNT or CCD revealed a marked circadian rhythmicity in the expression of a large number of genes crucially involved in various homeostatic functions of the kidney. This analysis also revealed that both DCT/CNT and CCD possess an intrinsic circadian timing system characterized by robust oscillations in the expression of circadian core clock genes (clock, bma11, npas2, per, cry, nr1d1) and clock-controlled Par bZip transcriptional factors dbp, hlf, and tef. The clock knockout mice or mice devoid of dbp/hlf/tef (triple knockout) exhibit significant changes in renal expression of several key regulators of water or sodium balance (vasopressin V2 receptor, aquaporin-2, aquaporin-4, alphaENaC). Functionally, the loss of clock leads to a complex phenotype characterized by partial diabetes insipidus, dysregulation of sodium excretion rhythms, and a significant decrease in blood pressure. Collectively, this study uncovers a major role of molecular clock in renal function.

Drinking Patterns and Their Predictive Factors in CONTROL: a 12-Month Prospective Study in a Sample of Alcohol-Dependent Patients Initiating Treatment.

Aims: To describe the drinking patterns and their baseline predictive factors during a 12-month period after an initial evaluation for alcohol treatment. Methods CONTROL is a single-center, prospective, observational study evaluating consecutive alcohol-dependent patients. Using a curve clustering methodology based on a polynomial regression mixture model, we identified three clusters of patients with dominant alcohol use patterns described as mostly abstainers, mostly moderate drinkers and mostly heavy drinkers. Multinomial logistic regression analysis was used to identify baseline factors (socio-demographic, alcohol dependence consequences and related factors) predictive of belonging to each drinking cluster. ResultsThe sample included 143 alcohol-dependent adults (63.6% males), mean age 44.6 ± 11.8 years. The clustering method identified 47 (32.9%) mostly abstainers, 56 (39.2%) mostly moderate drinkers and 40 (28.0%) mostly heavy drinkers. Multivariate analyses indicated that mild or severe depression at baseline predicted belonging to the mostly moderate drinkers cluster during follow-up (relative risk ratio (RRR) 2.42, CI [1.02-5.73, P = 0.045] P = 0.045), while living alone (RRR 2.78, CI [1.03-7.50], P = 0.044) and reporting more alcohol-related consequences (RRR 1.03, CI [1.01-1.05], P = 0.004) predicted belonging to the mostly heavy drinkers cluster during follow-up. Conclusion In this sample, the drinking patterns of alcohol-dependent patients were predicted by baseline factors, i.e. depression, living alone or alcohol-related consequences and findings that may inform clinicians about the likely drinking patterns of their alcohol-dependent patient over the year following the initial evaluation for alcohol treatment.

On the relationship between connections and the asymptotic properties of predictive distributions

In a recent paper, Komaki studied the second-order asymptotic properties of predictive distributions, using the Kullback-Leibler divergence as a loss function. He showed that estimative distributions with asymptotically efficient estimators can be improved by predictive distributions that do not belong to the model. The model is assumed to be a multidimensional curved exponential family. In this paper we generalize the result assuming as a loss function any f divergence. A relationship arises between alpha connections and optimal predictive distributions. In particular, using an alpha divergence to measure the goodness of a predictive distribution, the optimal shift of the estimate distribution is related to alpha-covariant derivatives. The expression that we obtain for the asymptotic risk is also useful to study the higher-order asymptotic properties of an estimator, in the mentioned class of loss functions.

Clinical trial substantiates the predictive value of O-6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase promoter methylation in glioblastoma patients treated with temozolomide.

PURPOSE: In the setting of a prospective clinical trial, we determined the predictive value of the methylation status of the O-6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) promoter for outcome in glioblastoma patients treated with the alkylating agent temozolomide. Expression of this excision repair enzyme has been associated with resistance to alkylating chemotherapy. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: The methylation status of MGMT in the tumor biopsies was evaluated in 38 patients undergoing resection for newly diagnosed glioblastoma and enrolled in a Phase II trial testing concomitant and adjuvant temozolomide and radiation. The epigenetic silencing of the MGMT gene was determined using methylation-specific PCR. RESULTS: Inactivation of the MGMT gene by promoter methylation was associated with longer survival (P = 0.0051; Log-rank test). At 18 months, survival was 62% (16 of 26) for patients testing positive for a methylated MGMT promoter but reached only 8% (1 of 12) in absence of methylation (P = 0.002; Fisher's exact test). In the presence of other clinically relevant factors, methylation of the MGMT promoter remains the only significant predictor (P = 0.017; Cox regression). CONCLUSIONS: This prospective clinical trial identifies MGMT-methylation status as an independent predictor for glioblastoma patients treated with a methylating agent. The association of the epigenetic inactivation of the DNA repair gene MGMT with better outcome in this homogenous cohort may have important implications for the design of future trials and supports efforts to deplete MGMT by O-6-benzylguanine, a noncytotoxic substrate of this enzyme.

Predictive value of readiness, importance, and confidence in ability to change drinking and smoking.

BACKGROUND: Visual analog scales (VAS) are sometimes used to assess change constructs that are often considered critical for change. Aims of Study: 1.) To determine the association of readiness to change, importance of changing and confidence in ability to change alcohol and tobacco use at baseline with the risk for drinking (more than 21 drinks per week/6 drinks or more on a single occasion more than once per month) and smoking (one or more cigarettes per day) six months later. 2.) To determine the association of readiness, importance and confidence with alcohol (number of drinks/week, number of binge drinking episodes/month) and tobacco (number of cigarettes/day) use at six months. METHODS: This is a secondary analysis of data from a multi-substance brief intervention randomized trial. A sample of 461 Swiss young men was analyzed as a prospective cohort. Participants were assessed at baseline and six months later on alcohol and tobacco use, and at baseline on readiness to change, importance of changing and confidence in ability to change constructs, using visual analog scales ranging from 1-10 for drinking and smoking behaviors. Regression models controlling for receipt of brief intervention were employed for each change construct. The lowest level (1-4) of each scale was the reference group that was compared to the medium (5-7) and high (8-10) levels. RESULTS: Among the 377 subjects reporting unhealthy alcohol use at baseline, mean (SD) readiness, importance and confidence to change drinking scores were 3.9 (3.0), 2.7 (2.2) and 7.2 (3.0), respectively. At follow-up, 108 (29%) reported no unhealthy alcohol use. Readiness was not associated with being risk-free at follow-up, but high importance (OR 2.94; 1.15, 7.50) and high confidence (OR 2.88; 1.46, 5.68) were. Among the 255 smokers at baseline, mean readiness, importance and confidence to change smoking scores were 4.6 (2.6), 5.3 (2.6) and 5.9 (2.7), respectively. At follow-up, 13% (33) reported no longer smoking. Neither readiness nor importance was associated with being a non-smoker, whereas high confidence (OR 3.29; 1.12, 9.62) was. CONCLUSIONS: High confidence in ability to change was associated with favorable outcomes for both drinking and smoking, whereas high importance was associated only with a favorable drinking outcome. This study points to the value of confidence as an important predictor of successful change for both drinking and smoking, and shows the value of importance in predicting successful changes in alcohol use. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN78822107.

Increased tender point counts before and after total hip arthroplasty are associated with poorer outcomes but are not individually predictive.

In a prospective study, total hip arthroplasty (THA) patients were assessed preoperatively and postoperatively (n = 95) to determine if tender points (TPs) are associated with poor THA outcomes. Patients with high follow-up TP counts had higher visual analog scale (VAS) for pain and sleep, higher follow-up Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index (pain, stiffness, function), lower Health Assessment Questionnaire, Harris Hip, and Short Form 36 (physical functioning, bodily pain, physical component summary) scores. High follow-up TP were associated with increased pain, pain not relieved by surgery, poor function, and poor sleep. Visual analog scale pain and sleep, Short Form 36 (physical functioning, bodily pain), Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index, Health Assessment Questionnaire, and Harris hip scores improved significantly after THA; TP scores did not. Higher preoperative TP were predictive of higher follow-up TP but were poorly predictive of poor outcome measures after surgery in individual patients, suggesting that preoperative TPs are contraindicative for THA.

Functional compensation of motor function in pre-symptomatic Huntington's disease.

Involuntary choreiform movements are a clinical hallmark of Huntington's disease. Studies in clinically affected patients suggest a shift of motor activations to parietal cortices in response to progressive neurodegeneration. Here, we studied pre-symptomatic gene carriers to examine the compensatory mechanisms that underlie the phenomenon of retained motor function in the presence of degenerative change. Fifteen pre-symptomatic gene carriers and 12 matched controls performed button presses paced by a metronome at either 0.5 or 2 Hz with four fingers of the right hand whilst being scanned with functional magnetic resonance imaging. Subjects pressed buttons either in the order of a previously learnt 10-item finger sequence, from left to right, or kept still. Error rates ranged from 2% to 7% in the pre-symptomatic gene carriers and from 0.5% to 4% in controls, depending on the condition. No significant difference in task performance was found between groups for any of the conditions. Activations in the supplementary motor area (SMA) and superior parietal lobe differed with gene status. Compared with healthy controls, gene carriers showed greater activations of left caudal SMA with all movement conditions. Activations correlated with increasing speed of movement were greater the closer the gene carriers were to estimated clinical diagnosis, defined by the onset of unequivocal motor signs. Activations associated with increased movement complexity (i.e. with the pre-learnt 10-item sequence) decreased in the rostral SMA with nearing diagnostic onset. The left superior parietal lobe showed reduced activation with increased movement complexity in gene carriers compared with controls, and in the right superior parietal lobe showed greater activations with all but the most demanding movements. We identified a complex pattern of motor compensation in pre-symptomatic gene carriers. The results show that preclinical compensation goes beyond a simple shift of activity from premotor to parietal regions involving multiple compensatory mechanisms in executive and cognitive motor areas. Critically, the pattern of motor compensation is flexible depending on the actual task demands on motor control.

Predictive analysis and mapping of indoor radon concentrations in Switzerland

It is estimated that around 230 people die each year due to radon (222Rn) exposure in Switzerland. 222Rn occurs mainly in closed environments like buildings and originates primarily from the subjacent ground. Therefore it depends strongly on geology and shows substantial regional variations. Correct identification of these regional variations would lead to substantial reduction of 222Rn exposure of the population based on appropriate construction of new and mitigation of already existing buildings. Prediction of indoor 222Rn concentrations (IRC) and identification of 222Rn prone areas is however difficult since IRC depend on a variety of different variables like building characteristics, meteorology, geology and anthropogenic factors. The present work aims at the development of predictive models and the understanding of IRC in Switzerland, taking into account a maximum of information in order to minimize the prediction uncertainty. The predictive maps will be used as a decision-support tool for 222Rn risk management. The construction of these models is based on different data-driven statistical methods, in combination with geographical information systems (GIS). In a first phase we performed univariate analysis of IRC for different variables, namely the detector type, building category, foundation, year of construction, the average outdoor temperature during measurement, altitude and lithology. All variables showed significant associations to IRC. Buildings constructed after 1900 showed significantly lower IRC compared to earlier constructions. We observed a further drop of IRC after 1970. In addition to that, we found an association of IRC with altitude. With regard to lithology, we observed the lowest IRC in sedimentary rocks (excluding carbonates) and sediments and the highest IRC in the Jura carbonates and igneous rock. The IRC data was systematically analyzed for potential bias due to spatially unbalanced sampling of measurements. In order to facilitate the modeling and the interpretation of the influence of geology on IRC, we developed an algorithm based on k-medoids clustering which permits to define coherent geological classes in terms of IRC. We performed a soil gas 222Rn concentration (SRC) measurement campaign in order to determine the predictive power of SRC with respect to IRC. We found that the use of SRC is limited for IRC prediction. The second part of the project was dedicated to predictive mapping of IRC using models which take into account the multidimensionality of the process of 222Rn entry into buildings. We used kernel regression and ensemble regression tree for this purpose. We could explain up to 33% of the variance of the log transformed IRC all over Switzerland. This is a good performance compared to former attempts of IRC modeling in Switzerland. As predictor variables we considered geographical coordinates, altitude, outdoor temperature, building type, foundation, year of construction and detector type. Ensemble regression trees like random forests allow to determine the role of each IRC predictor in a multidimensional setting. We found spatial information like geology, altitude and coordinates to have stronger influences on IRC than building related variables like foundation type, building type and year of construction. Based on kernel estimation we developed an approach to determine the local probability of IRC to exceed 300 Bq/m3. In addition to that we developed a confidence index in order to provide an estimate of uncertainty of the map. All methods allow an easy creation of tailor-made maps for different building characteristics. Our work is an essential step towards a 222Rn risk assessment which accounts at the same time for different architectural situations as well as geological and geographical conditions. For the communication of 222Rn hazard to the population we recommend to make use of the probability map based on kernel estimation. The communication of 222Rn hazard could for example be implemented via a web interface where the users specify the characteristics and coordinates of their home in order to obtain the probability to be above a given IRC with a corresponding index of confidence. Taking into account the health effects of 222Rn, our results have the potential to substantially improve the estimation of the effective dose from 222Rn delivered to the Swiss population.

Conditional predictive density evaluation in the presence of instabilities

We propose new methods for evaluating predictive densities. The methods includeKolmogorov-Smirnov and Cram?r-von Mises-type tests for the correct specification ofpredictive densities robust to dynamic mis-specification. The novelty is that the testscan detect mis-specification in the predictive densities even if it appears only overa fraction of the sample, due to the presence of instabilities. Our results indicatethat our tests are well sized and have good power in detecting mis-specification inpredictive densities, even when it is time-varying. An application to density forecastsof the Survey of Professional Forecasters demonstrates the usefulness of the proposedmethodologies.

Local model predictive control experiences with differential driven wheeled mobile robots

This work extends a previously developed research concerning about the use of local model predictive control in differential driven mobile robots. Hence, experimental results are presented as a way to improve the methodology by considering aspects as trajectory accuracy and time performance. In this sense, the cost function and the prediction horizon are important aspects to be considered. The aim of the present work is to test the control method by measuring trajectory tracking accuracy and time performance. Moreover, strategies for the integration with perception system and path planning are briefly introduced. In this sense, monocular image data can be used to plan safety trajectories by using goal attraction potential fields

Mobile Robot Local Predictive Control under Perception Constraints

This research extends a previously developed work concerning about the use of local model predictive control in mobile robots. Hence, experimental results are presented as a way to improve the methodology by considering aspects as trajectory accuracy and time performance. In this sense, the cost function and the prediction horizon are important aspects to be considered. The platformused is a differential driven robot with a free rotating wheel. The aim of the present work is to test the control method by measuring trajectory tracking accuracy and time performance. Moreover, strategies for the integration with perception system and path planning are also introduced. In this sense, monocular image data provide an occupancy grid where safety trajectories are computed by using goal attraction potential fields

Tiller size/density compensation in grazed Tifton 85 bermudagrass swards

The objective of this study was to evaluate the occurrence of the tiller size/density compensation mechanism in Tifton 85 bermudagrass swards grazed by sheep under continuous stocking. Treatments corresponded to four sward steady state conditions (5, 10, 15, and 20 cm of sward surface height), maintained by sheep grazing. The experimental design was a complete randomized block with four replicates. Pasture responses evaluated include: tiller population density, tiller mass, leaf mass and leaf area per tiller, and herbage mass. Tiller volume, leaf area index, tiller leaf/stem ratio, and tiller leaf area/volume ratio were calculated and simple regression analyses between tiller population density and tiller mass were performed. Measurements were made in December, 1998, and January, April, and July, 1999. The swards showed a tiller size/density compensation mechanism in which high tiller population densities were associated with small tillers and vice-versa, except in July, 1999. Regression analyses revealed that linear coefficients were steeper than the theoretical expectation of -3/2. Increments in herbage mass were attributable to increases in tiller mass in December and January. Leaf area/volume ratio values of Tifton 85 tillers were much lower than those commonly found for temperate grass species.

Success of referral for alcohol dependent patients from a general hospital : predictive value of patient and process characteristics

RESUME: Introduction L'objectif de cette étude prospective de cohorte était d'estimer l'efficacité d'un processus de prise en charge standardisé de patients dépendants de l'alcool dans le contexte d'un hôpital universitaire de soins généraux. Ce modèle de prise en charge comprenait une évaluation multidisciplinaire puis des propositions de traitements individualisées et spécifiques (« projet thérapeutique »). Patients et méthode 165 patients alcoolo-dépendants furent recrutés dans différents services de l'hôpital universitaire, y compris la policlinique de médecine. Ils furent dans un premier temps évalués par une équipe multidisciplinaire (médecin interniste, psychiatre, assistant social), puis un projet thérapeutique spécialisé et individualisé leur fut proposé lors d'une rencontre réunissant le patient et l'équipe. Tous les patients éligibles acceptant de participer à l'étude (n=68) furent interrogés au moment de l'inclusion puis 2 et 6 mois plus tard par une psychologue. Des informations standardisées furent recueillies sur les caractéristiques des patients, le processus de prise en charge et l'évolution à 6 mois. Les critères de succès utilisés à 6 mois furent: l'adhérence au traitement proposé et l'abstinence d'alcool. Résultats Lors de l'évaluation à 6 mois, 43% des patients étaient toujours en traitement et 28% étaient abstinents. Les variables prédictrices de succès parmi les caractéristiques des patients étaient un âge de plus de 45 ans, ne pas vivre seul, avoir un travail et être motivé pour un traitement (RAATE-A <18). Pour les variables dépendantes du processus de prise en charge, un sevrage complet de l'alcool lors de la rencontre multidisciplinaire ainsi que la présence de tous les membres de l'équipe à cette réunion étaient des facteurs associés au succès. Conclusion L'efficacité de ce modèle d'intervention pour patients dépendants de l'alcool en hôpital de soins généraux s'est montrée satisfaisante, en particulier pour le critère de succès adhérence au traitement. Des variables associées au succès ou à l'échec à 6 mois ont pu être mises en évidence, permettant d'identifier des populations de patients évoluant différemment. Des stratégies de prise en charge tenant compte de ces éléments pourraient donc être développées, permettant de proposer des traitements plus adaptés ainsi qu'une meilleure rétention des patients alcooliques dans les programmes thérapeutiques. ABSTRACT. To assess the effectiveness of a multidisciplinary evaluation and referral process in a prospective cohort of general hospital patients with alcohol dependence, alcohol-dependent patients were identified in the wards of the general hospital and its primary care center. They were evaluated and then referred to treatment by a multidisciplinary team; those patients who accepted to participate in this cohort study were consecutively included and followed for 6 months. Not included patients were lost for follow-up, whereas all included patients were assessed at time of inclusion, 2 and 6 months later by a research psychologist in order to collect standardized baseline patients' characteristics, process salient features and patients outcomes (defined as treatment adherence and abstinence). Multidisciplinary evaluation and therapeutic referral was feasible and effective, with a success rate of 43% for treatment adherence and 28% for abstinence at 6 months. Among patients' characteristics, predictors of success were an age over 45, not living alone, being employed and being motivated to treatment (RAATE-A score < 18), whereas successful process characteristics included detoxification of the patient at time of referral and a full multidisciplinary referral meeting. This multidisciplinary model of evaluation and referral of alcohol dependent patients of a general hospital had a satisfactory level of effectiveness. Predictors of success and failure allow the identification of subsets of patients for whom new strategies of motivation and treatment referral should be designed.