An assessment of fiscal and regulatory barriers to deployment of energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies in Belize

Belize is currently faced with several critical challenges associated with the production, distribution and use of energy. Despite an abundance of renewable energy resources, the country remains disproportionately dependent on imported fossil fuels, which exposes it to volatile and rising oil prices, limits economic development, and retards its ability to make the investments that are necessary for adapting to climate change, which pose a particularly acute threat to the small island states and low-lying coastal nations of the Caribbean. This transition from energy consumption and supply patterns that are based on imported fossil fuels and electricity towards a more sustainable energy economy that is based on environmentally benign, indigenous renewable energy technologies and more efficient use of energy requires concerted action as the country is already challenged by limited fiscal space which reduces its ability to provide some fiscal incentives, which have been proven to be effective tools for the promotion of sustainable energy markets in a number of countries. This report identifies the fiscal and regulatory barriers to implementation of energy efficiency measures and renewable energy technologies in Belize. Data and information were derived from stakeholder consultations conducted within the country. The major result of the assessment is that the transition of policies and plans into tangible action needs to be increased. In this regard, it is necessary to articulate sub-policies of the National Energy Policy to amend the Public Utilities Commission Act, to develop a grid interconnection policy, to establish minimum energy performance standards for buildings and equipment and to develop a public procurement policy. Finally, decisions on renewable energy and energy efficiency-related incentives from the Government formally requires decision-makers to solve what may be extremely complex optimization problems in order to obtain the lowest-cost provision of energy services to society, thereby weighing the cost of revenue losses with the benefits of fuel and infrastructure expansion savings. The establishment of a management system that is efficient, flexible, and transparent, which will facilitate the implementation of the strategic objectives and outputs in the time available, with the financial resources allocated is recommended. Support is required for additional institutional and capacity strengthening.

Applying spatial analysis of genetic and environmental data to predict connection corridors to the New World screwworm populations in South America

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Contributions of demography and dispersal parameters to the spatial spread of a stage-structured insect invasion

Stage-structured models that integrate demography and dispersal can be used to identify points in the life cycle with large effects on rates of population spatial spread, information that is vital in the development of containment strategies for invasive species. Current challenges in the application of these tools include: (1) accounting for large uncertainty in model parameters, which may violate assumptions of ‘‘local’’ perturbation metrics such as sensitivities and elasticities, and (2) forecasting not only asymptotic rates of spatial spread, as is usually done, but also transient spatial dynamics in the early stages of invasion. We developed an invasion model for the Diaprepes root weevil (DRW; Diaprepes abbreviatus [Coleoptera: Curculionidae]), a generalist herbivore that has invaded citrus-growing regions of the United States. We synthesized data on DRW demography and dispersal and generated predictions for asymptotic and transient peak invasion speeds, accounting for parameter uncertainty. We quantified the contributions of each parameter toward invasion speed using a ‘‘global’’ perturbation analysis, and we contrasted parameter contributions during the transient and asymptotic phases. We found that the asymptotic invasion speed was 0.02–0.028 km/week, although the transient peak invasion speed (0.03– 0.045 km/week) was significantly greater. Both asymptotic and transient invasions speeds were most responsive to weevil dispersal distances. However, demographic parameters that had large effects on asymptotic speed (e.g., survival of early-instar larvae) had little effect on transient speed. Comparison of the global analysis with lower-level elasticities indicated that local perturbation analysis would have generated unreliable predictions for the responsiveness of invasion speed to underlying parameters. Observed range expansion in southern Florida (1992–2006) was significantly lower than the invasion speed predicted by the model. Possible causes of this mismatch include overestimation of dispersal distances, demographic rates, and spatiotemporal variation in parameter values. This study demonstrates that, when parameter uncertainty is large, as is often the case, global perturbation analyses are needed to identify which points in the life cycle should be targets of management. Our results also suggest that effective strategies for reducing spread during the asymptotic phase may have little effect during the transient phase. Includes Appendix.

Integration of spatial and temporal models to predict extreme water table depths

The objective of this work was to evaluate extreme water table depths in a watershed, using methods for geographical spatial data analysis. Groundwater spatio-temporal dynamics was evaluated in an outcrop of the Guarani Aquifer System. Water table depths were estimated from monitoring of water levels in 23 piezometers and time series modeling available from April 2004 to April 2011. For generation of spatial scenarios, geostatistical techniques were used, which incorporated into the prediction ancillary information related to the geomorphological patterns of the watershed, using a digital elevation model. This procedure improved estimates, due to the high correlation between water levels and elevation, and aggregated physical sense to predictions. The scenarios showed differences regarding the extreme levels - too deep or too shallow ones - and can subsidize water planning, efficient water use, and sustainable water management in the watershed.

Transcranial magnetic stimulation in mild to severe hemiparesis early after stroke: a proof of principle and novel approach to improve motor function

Low-frequency repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) of the unaffected hemisphere can enhance function of the paretic hand in patients with mild motor impairment. Effects of low-frequency rTMS to the contralesional motor cortex at an early stage of mild to severe hemiparesis after stroke are unknown. In this pilot, randomized, double-blind clinical trial we compared the effects of low-frequency rTMS or sham rTMS as add-on therapies to outpatient customary rehabilitation, in 30 patients within 5-45 days after ischemic stroke, and mild to severe hand paresis. The primary feasibility outcome was compliance with the interventions. The primary safety outcome was the proportion of intervention-related adverse events. Performance of the paretic hand in the Jebsen-Taylor test and pinch strength were secondary outcomes. Outcomes were assessed at baseline, after ten sessions of treatment administered over 2 weeks and at 1 month after end of treatment. Baseline clinical features were comparable across groups. For the primary feasibility outcome, compliance with treatment was 100% in the active group and 94% in the sham group. There were no serious intervention-related adverse events. There were significant improvements in performance in the Jebsen-Taylor test (mean, 12.3% 1 month after treatment) and pinch force (mean, 0.5 Newtons) in the active group, but not in the sham group. Low-frequency rTMS to the contralesional motor cortex early after stroke is feasible, safe and potentially effective to improve function of the paretic hand, in patients with mild to severe hemiparesis. These promising results will be valuable to design larger randomized clinical trials.

SYNCHRONIZATION OF CHAOS AND THE TRANSITION TO WAVE TURBULENCE

We investigated the transition to wave turbulence in a spatially extended three-wave interacting model, where a spatially homogeneous state undergoing chaotic dynamics undergoes spatial mode excitation. The transition to this weakly turbulent state can be regarded as the loss of synchronization of chaos of mode oscillators describing the spatial dynamics.

Novel properties of melanins include promotion of DNA strand breaks, impairment of repair, and reduced ability to damage DNA after quenching of singlet oxygen

Melanins have been associated with the development of melanoma and its resistance to photodynamic therapy (PDT). Singlet molecular oxygen (102), which is produced by ultraviolet A solar radiation and the PDT system, is also involved. Here, we investigated the effects that these factors have on DNA damage and repair. Our results show that both types of melanin (eumelanin and pheomelanin) lead to DNA breakage in the absence of light irradiation and that eumelanin is more harmful than pheomelanin. Interestingly, melanins were found to bind to the minor grooves of DNA, guaranteeing close proximity to DNA and potentially causing the observed high levels of strand breaks. We also show that the interaction of melanins with DNA can impair the access of repair enzymes to lesions, contributing to the perpetuation of DNA damage. Moreover, we found that after melanins interact with 102, they exhibit a lower ability to induce DNA breakage; we propose that these effects are due to modifications of their structure. Together, our data highlight the different modes of action of the two types of melanin. Our results may have profound implications for cellular redox homeostasis, under conditions of induced melanin synthesis and irradiation with solar light. These results may also be applied to the development of protocols to sensitize melanoma cells to PDT. (c) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Chlorhexidine does not increase immediate bond strength of etch-and-rinse adhesive to caries-affected dentin of primary and permanent teeth

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of 2% chlorhexidine digluconate (CHX) on immediate bond strength of etch-and-rinse adhesive to sound (SD) and caries-affected (CAD) primary dentin compared with permanent dentin. Flat dentin surfaces from 20 primary molars (Pri) and 20 permanent molars (Perm) were assigned to 8 experimental groups (n=5) according to tooth type (Pri or Perm), dentin condition (SD or CAD - pH-cycling for 14 days) and treatment (control - C or 60 s application of 2% CHX solution after acid etching - CHX). The bonding system (Adper Single Bond 2) was applied according to manufacturer's instructions followed by resin composite application (Filtek Z250). After 24 h water storage, specimens with cross-section area of 0.8 mm² were prepared for being tested under microtensile test (1 mm/min). Data were submitted to ANOVA and Tukey's post hoc test (α=0.05). Failure mode was evaluated using a stereomicroscope at ×400. Treatment with CHX did not result in higher bond strength values than no pre-treatment (C groups), independently of tooth type. Primary teeth and caries-affected dentin showed significantly lower (p<0.05) bond strength means compared with permanent teeth and sound dentin, respectively. Predominance of adhesive/mixed failure was observed for all groups. CHX did not influence the immediate bond strength to sound or caries-affected dentin of primary and permanent teeth.

Application of 137Cs and 210Pb radionuclides to determine sedimentation rates of recent sediments from admiraty Bay, Antarctica Peninsula

Studies about natural and artificial radionuclides in areas such as the Antarctic are key to understand natural and dynamic processes in marine environments. These studies are important to determine levels of radioactive elements and local sedimentation rates. Five marine sediment cores were collected in different points of Admiralty Bay, in the Antarctic Peninsula. The purpose of this study was to determine 137Cs, 226Ra and 210Pb and sedimentation rates at each site. 137Cs, 210Pb and 226Ra were assayed by gamma-counting through direct measurement of the peak at 661 keV, 47 keV and 609 keV, respectively. Sedimentation rates were obtained by 137Cs and 210Pb (CIC and CRS). The activities for 137Cs ranged from 0.84 to 7.09 Bq kg-1; to 226Ra from 6.77 to 31.07 Bq kg-1 and for 210Pb ranged from 1.10 to 36.90 Bq kg-1. The sedimentation rates obtained by the three models ranged from 0.11±0.01 cm y-1 to 0.46±0.05 cm y-1. The levels of 137Cs registered in this study, as well as in other studies in the Antarctic region indicate that global fallout is the main cause of artificial radionuclides present in this environment, since the Antarctic has not suffered a direct action of human activities that released radioactive elements. The possible grain size variations that occur in the studied points of Admiralty Bay may explain the differences found in the vertical distribution of radionuclides, because of the different values of sedimentation rates and respective dating determined in their profiles

Analysis of eruptive and seismic sequences to improve the short-and long-term eruption forecasting

Forecasting the time, location, nature, and scale of volcanic eruptions is one of the most urgent aspects of modern applied volcanology. The reliability of probabilistic forecasting procedures is strongly related to the reliability of the input information provided, implying objective criteria for interpreting the historical and monitoring data. For this reason both, detailed analysis of past data and more basic research into the processes of volcanism, are fundamental tasks of a continuous information-gain process; in this way the precursor events of eruptions can be better interpreted in terms of their physical meanings with correlated uncertainties. This should lead to better predictions of the nature of eruptive events. In this work we have studied different problems associated with the long- and short-term eruption forecasting assessment. First, we discuss different approaches for the analysis of the eruptive history of a volcano, most of them generally applied for long-term eruption forecasting purposes; furthermore, we present a model based on the characteristics of a Brownian passage-time process to describe recurrent eruptive activity, and apply it for long-term, time-dependent, eruption forecasting (Chapter 1). Conversely, in an effort to define further monitoring parameters as input data for short-term eruption forecasting in probabilistic models (as for example, the Bayesian Event Tree for eruption forecasting -BET_EF-), we analyze some characteristics of typical seismic activity recorded in active volcanoes; in particular, we use some methodologies that may be applied to analyze long-period (LP) events (Chapter 2) and volcano-tectonic (VT) seismic swarms (Chapter 3); our analysis in general are oriented toward the tracking of phenomena that can provide information about magmatic processes. Finally, we discuss some possible ways to integrate the results presented in Chapters 1 (for long-term EF), 2 and 3 (for short-term EF) in the BET_EF model (Chapter 4).

New catalytic processes for the upgrading of furfural and 5-hydroxymethylfurfural to chemicals and fuels

The demand of energy, fuels and chemicals is increasing due to the strong growth of some countries in the developing world and the development of the world economy. Unfortunately, the general picture derived sparked an exponential increase in crude oil prices with a consequent increase of the chemical, by-products and energy, depleting the global market. Nowadays biomass are the most promising alternative to fossil fuels for the production of chemicals and fuels. In this work, the development of three different catalytic processes for the valorization of biomass-derived has been investigated. 5-hydroxymethylfurfural oxidation was studied under mild reaction condition using gold and gold/copper based catalysts synthetized from pre-formed nanoparticles and supported onto TiO2 and CeO2. The analysis conducted on catalysts showed the formation of alloys gold/copper and a strong synergistic effect between the two metals. For this reason the bimetallic catalysts supported on titania showed a higher catalytic activity respect to the monometallic catalysts. The process for the production of 2,5-bishydroxymethyl furan (BHMF) was also optimized by means the 5-hydroxymethylfurfural hydrogenation using the Shvo complex. Complete conversion of HMF was achieved working at 90 °C and 10 bar of hydrogen. The complex was found to be re-usable for at least three catalytic cycles without suffering any type of deactivation. Finally, the hydrogenation of furfural and HMF was carried out, developing the process of hydrogen transfer by using MgO as a catalyst and methanol as a hydrogen donor. Quantitative yields to alcohols have been achieved in a few hours working in mild condition: 160 °C and at autogenous pressure. The only by-products formed were light products such as CO, CO2 and CH4 (products derived from methanol transformation), easily separable from the reaction solution depressurizing the reactor.