Spatial patterns and driving forces of land use change in China during the early 21st century

Land use and land cover change as the core of coupled human-environment systems has become a potential field of land change science (LCS) in the study of global environmental change. Based on remotely sensed data of land use change with a spatial resolution of 1 km x 1 km on national scale among every 5 years, this paper designed a new dynamic regionalization according to the comprehensive characteristics of land use change including regional differentiation, physical, economic, and macro-policy factors as well. Spatial pattern of land use change and its driving forces were investigated in China in the early 21st century. To sum up, land use change pattern of this period was characterized by rapid changes in the whole country. Over the agricultural zones, e.g., Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, the southeast coastal areas and Sichuan Basin, a great proportion of fine arable land were engrossed owing to considerable expansion of the built-up and residential areas, resulting in decrease of paddy land area in southern China. The development of oasis agriculture in Northwest China and the reclamation in Northeast China led to a slight increase in arable land area in northern China. Due to the "Grain for Green" policy, forest area was significantly increased in the middle and western developing regions, where the vegetation coverage was substantially enlarged, likewise. This paper argued the main driving forces as the implementation of the strategy on land use and regional development, such as policies of "Western Development", "Revitalization of Northeast", coupled with rapidly economic development during this period.

STUDY ON THE SPATIAL PATTERNS OF LAND-USE CHANGE AND ANALYSES OF DRIVING FORCES IN NORTHEASTERN CHINA DURING 1990-2000

Land-use change is an important aspect of global environment change. It is, in a sense, the direct result of human activities influencing our physical environment. Supported by the dynamic serving system of national resources, including both the environment database and GIS technology, this paper analyzed the land-use change in northeastern China in the past ten years (1990 - 2000). It divides northeastern China into five land-use zones based on the dynamic degree (DD) of land-use: woodland/grassland - arable land conversion zone, dry land - paddy field conversion zone, urban expansion zone, interlocked zone of farming and pasturing, and reclamation and abandoned zone. In the past ten years, land-use change of northeastern China can be generalized as follows: increase of cropland area was obvious, paddy field and dry land increased by 74. 9 and 276. 0 thousand ha respectively; urban area expanded rapidly, area of town and rural residence increased by 76. 8 thousand ha; area of forest and grassland decreased sharply with the amount of 1399. 0 and 1521. 3 thousand ha respectively; area of water body and unused land increased by 148. 4 and 513. 9 thousand ha respectively. Besides a comprehensive analysis of the spatial patterns of land use, this paper also discusses the driving forces in each land-use dynamic zones. The study shows that some key biophysical factors affect conspicuously the conversion of different land- use types. In this paper, the relationships between land- use conversion and DEM, accnmlated temperature(>= 10 degrees C) and precipitation were analysed and represented. We conclude that the land- use changes in northeast China resulted from the change of macro social and economic factors and local physical elements. Rapid population growth and management changes, in some sense, can explain the shaping of woodland/grassland - cropland conversion zone. The conversion from dry land to paddy field in the dry land - paddy field conversion zone, apart from the physical elements change promoting the expansion of paddy field, results from two reasons: one is that the implementation of market-economy in China has given farmers the right to decide what they plant and how they plant their crops, the other factor is originated partially from the change of dietary habit with the social and economic development. The conversion from paddy field to dry land is caused primarily by the shortfall of irrigation water, which in turn is caused by poor water allocation managed by local governments. The shaping of the reclamation and abandoned zone is partially due to the lack of environment protection consciousness among pioneer settlers. The reason for the conversion from grassland to cropland is the relatively higher profits of fanning than that of pasturing in the interlocked zone of farming and pasturing. In northeastern China, the rapid expansion of built-up areas results from two factors: the first is its small number of towns; the second comes from the huge potential for expansion of existing towns and cities. It is noticeable that urban expansion in the northeastern China is characterized by gentle topographic relief and low population density. Physiognomy, transportation and economy exert great influences on the urban expansion.

Validating MODIS-derived land surface evapotranspiration with in situ measurements at two AmeriFlux sites in a semiarid region

Reducing uncertainties in the estimation of land surface evapotranspiration (ET) from remote-sensing data is essential to better understand earth-atmosphere interactions. This paper demonstrates the applicability of temperature-vegetation index triangle (T-s-VI) method in estimating regional ET and evaporative fraction (EF, defined as the ratio of latent heat flux to surface available energy) from MODIS/Terra and MODIS/Aqua products in a semiarid region. We have compared the satellite-based estimates of ET and EF with eddy covariance measurements made over 4 years at two semiarid grassland sites: Audubon Ranch (AR) and Kendall Grassland (KG). The lack of closure in the eddy covariance measured surface energy components is shown to be more serious at MODIS/Aqua overpass time than that at MODIS/Terra overpass time for both AR and KG sites. The T-s-VI-derived EF could reproduce in situ EF reasonably well with BIAS and root-mean-square difference (RMSD) of less than 0.07 and 0.13, respectively. Surface net radiation has been shown to be systematically overestimated by as large as about 60 W/m(2). Satisfactory validation results of the T-s-VI-derived sensible and latent heat fluxes have been obtained with RMSD within 54 W/m(2). The simplicity and yet easy use of the T-s-VI triangle method show a great potential in estimating regional ET with highly acceptable accuracy that is of critical significance in better understanding water and energy budgets on the Earth. Nevertheless, more validation work should be carried out over various climatic regions and under other different land use/land cover conditions in the future.

Potential CO2 Emission Reduction by Development of Non-Grain-Based Bioethanol in China

Assessment of the potential CO2 emission reduction by development of non-grain-based ethanol in China is valuable for both setting up countermeasures against climate change and formulating bioethanol policies. Based on the land occupation property, feedstock classification and selection are conducted, identifying sweet sorghum, cassava, and sweet potato as plantation feedstocks cultivated from low-quality arable marginal land resources and molasses and agricultural straws as nonplantation feedstocks derived from agricultural by-products. The feedstock utilization degree, CO2 reduction coefficient of bioethanol, and assessment model of CO2 emission reduction potential of bioethanol are proposed and established to assess the potential CO2 emission reduction by development of non-grain-based bioethanol. The results show that China can obtain emission reduction potentials of 10.947 and 49.027 Mt CO2 with non-grain-based bioethanol in 2015 and 2030, which are much higher than the present capacity, calculated as 1.95 Mt. It is found that nonplantation feedstock can produce more bioethanol so as to obtain a higher potential than plantation feedstock in both 2015 and 2030. Another finding is that developing non-grain-based bioethanol can make only a limited contribution to China's greenhouse gas emission reduction. Moreover, this study reveals that the regions with low and very low potentials for emission reduction will dominate the spatial distribution in 2015, and regions with high and very high potentials will be the majority in 2030.

Analysis of arable land loss and its impact on rural sustainability in Southern Jiangsu Province of China

Rapid urbanization and industrialization in southern Jiangsu Province have consumed a huge amount of arable land. Through comparative analysis of land cover maps derived from TM images in 1990, 2000 and 2006, we identified the trend of arable land loss. It is found that most arable land is lost to urbanization and rural settlements development. Urban settlements, rural settlements, and industrial park-mine-transport land increased, respectively, by 87 997 ha (174.65%), 81 041 ha (104.52%), and 12 692 ha (397.99%) from 1990 to 2006. Most of the source (e.g., change from) land covers are rice paddy fields and dryland. These two covers contributed to newly urbanized areas by 37.12% and 73.52% during 1990-2000, and 46.39% and 38.86% during 2000-2006. However, the loss of arable land is weakly correlated with ecological service value, per capita net income of farmers, but positively with grain yield for some counties. Most areas in the study site have a low arable land depletion rate and a high potential for sustainable development. More attention should be directed at those counties that have a high depletion rate but a low potential for sustainable development. Rural settlements should be controlled and rationalized through legislative measures to achieve harmonious development between urban and rural areas, and sustainable development for rural areas with a minimal impact on the ecoenvironment. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing the potential of VEGETATION sensor data for mapping snow and ice cover: a Normalized Difference Snow and Ice Index

The VEGETATION (VGT) sensor in SPOT 4 has four spectral bands that are equivalent to Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) bands (blue, red, near-infrared and mid-infrared spectral bands) and provides daily images of the global land surface at a 1-km spatial resolution. We propose a new index for identifying and mapping of snow ice cover, namely the Normalized Difference Snow/Ice Index (NDSII), which uses reflectance values of red and mid-infrared spectral bands of Landsat TM and VGT. For Landsat TM data, NDSII is calculated as NDSIITM =(TM3 -TM5)/(TM3 +TM5); for VGT data, NDSII is calculated as NDSIIVGT =(B2- MIR)/(B2 + MIR). As a case study we used a Landsat TM image that covers the eastern part of the Qilian mountain range in the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibetan) plateau of China. NDSIITM gave similar estimates of the area and spatial distribution of snow/ice cover to the Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI=(TM2-TM5)/(TM2+TM5)) which has been proposed by Hall et al. The results indicated that the VGT sensor might have the potential for operational monitoring and mapping of snow/ice cover from regional to global scales, when using NDSIIVGT.

Program, abstracts and related documents.

The context: Soil biodiversity and sustainable agriculture; Abstracts - Theme 1: Monitoring and assessment: Bioindicators of soil health: assessment and monitoring for sustainable agriculture; Practical tools to measure soil health and their use by farmers; Biological soil quality from biomass to biodiversity - importance and resilience to management stress and disturbance; Integrated management of plant-parasitic nematodes in maize-bean cropping systems; Microbial quantitative and qualitative changes in soils under different crops and tillage management systems in Brazil; Diversity in the rhizobia associated with Phaseolus vulgaris L: in Ecuador and comparisons with Mexican bean rhizobia; Sistemas integrados ganadería-agricultura en Cuba; Soil macrofauna as bioindicator of soil quality; Biological functioning of cerrado soils; Hydrolysis of fluorescein diacetate as a soil quality indicator in different pasture systems; Soil management and soil macrofauna communities at Embrapa Soybean, Londrina, Brazil; Soil macrofauna in a 24 - year old no-tillage system in Paraná, Brazil; Invertebrate macrofauna of soils inpastures under different forms of management in the cerrado (Brazil); Soil tillage modifies the invertebrate soil macrofauna community; Soil macrofauna in various tillage and land use systems on an oxisols near Londrina, Paraná, Brazil; Interference of agricultural systems on soil macrofauna; Scarab beetle-grub holes in various tillage and crop management systems at Embrapa Soybean, Londrina, Brazil; Biological management of agroecosystems; Soil biota and nutrient dynamics through litterfall in agroforestry system in Rondônia, Amazônia, Brazil; Soil-C stocks and earthworm diversity of native and introduced pastures in Veracruz, Mexico; Theme 2 : Adaptive management: Some thoughts on the effects and implications of the transition from weedy multi-crop to wead-free mono-crop systems in Africa; Towards sustainable agriculture with no-tillage and crop rotation systems in South Brazil; Effect of termites on crusted soil rehabilitation in the Sahel; Management of macrofauna in traditional and conventional agroforestry systems from India with special reference to termites and earthworms; Adaptive management for redeveloping traditional agroecosystems; Conservation and sustainable use of soil biodiversity: learning with master nature!; Convergence of sciences: inclusive technology innovation processes for better integrated crop/vegetation, soil and biodiversity management; Potential for increasing soil biodiversity in agroecosystems; Biological nitrogen fixation and sustainability in the tropics; Theme 3: Research and innovation: Plant flavonoids and cluster roots as modifiers of soil biodiversity; The significance of biological diversity in agricultural soil for disease suppressiveness and nutrient retention; Linking above - and belowground biodiversity: a comparison of agricultural systems; Insect-pests in biologically managed oil and crops: the experience at ICRISAT; Sistemas agricolas micorrizados en Cuba; The effect of velvetbean (Mucuna pruriens) on the tropical earthworm Balanteodrilus pearsei: a management option for maize crops in the Mexican humid tropics; The potential of earthworms and organic matter quality in the rehabilitation of tropical soils; Research and innovation in biological management of soil ecosystems; Application of biodynamic methods in the Egyptian cotton sector; Theme 4: Capacity building and mainstreaming: Soil ecology and biodiversity: a quick scan of its importance for government policy in The Netherlands; Agrotechnological transfer of legume inoculants in Eastern and Southern Africa; Agricultura urbana en Cuba; Soil carbon sequestration for sustaining agricultural production and improving the environment; Conservation and sustainable management of below-ground biodiversity: the TSBF-BGBD network project; The tropical soil biology and fertility institute of CIAT (TSBF); South-South initiative for training and capacity building for the management of soil biology/biodiversity; Strategies to facilititate development and adoption of integrated resource management for sustainable production and productivity improvement; The challenge program on biological nitrogen fixation (CPBNF); Living soil training for farmers: improving knowledge and skills in soil nutrition management; Do we need an inter-governmental panel on land and soil (IPLS)? Protection and sustainable use of biodiversity of soils; Cases Studies -- Plant parasitic nematodes associated with common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) and integrated management approaches; Agrotechnological transfer of legume inoculants in Eastern and Southern Africa; Restoring soil fertility and enhancing productivity in Indian tea plantations with earthworms and organic fertilizers; Managing termites and organic resources to improve soil productivity in the Sahel; Overview and case studies on biological nitrogen fixation: perspectives and limitations; Soil biodiversity and sustainable agriculture: an overview.

Identification and assessment of potential wind energy project sites in the State of Maryland

Gemstone Team Renewables

Assessing the homogenization of urban land management with an application to US residential lawn care.

Changes in land use, land cover, and land management present some of the greatest potential global environmental challenges of the 21st century. Urbanization, one of the principal drivers of these transformations, is commonly thought to be generating land changes that are increasingly similar. An implication of this multiscale homogenization hypothesis is that the ecosystem structure and function and human behaviors associated with urbanization should be more similar in certain kinds of urbanized locations across biogeophysical gradients than across urbanization gradients in places with similar biogeophysical characteristics. This paper introduces an analytical framework for testing this hypothesis, and applies the framework to the case of residential lawn care. This set of land management behaviors are often assumed--not demonstrated--to exhibit homogeneity. Multivariate analyses are conducted on telephone survey responses from a geographically stratified random sample of homeowners (n = 9,480), equally distributed across six US metropolitan areas. Two behaviors are examined: lawn fertilizing and irrigating. Limited support for strong homogenization is found at two scales (i.e., multi- and single-city; 2 of 36 cases), but significant support is found for homogenization at only one scale (22 cases) or at neither scale (12 cases). These results suggest that US lawn care behaviors are more differentiated in practice than in theory. Thus, even if the biophysical outcomes of urbanization are homogenizing, managing the associated sustainability implications may require a multiscale, differentiated approach because the underlying social practices appear relatively varied. The analytical approach introduced here should also be productive for other facets of urban-ecological homogenization.

Impacts of land use change and climate variations on annual inflow into Miyun Reservoir,Beijing, China

The Miyun Reservoir, the only surface water source for Beijing city, has experienced water supply decline in recent decades. Previous studies suggest that both land use change and climate contribute to the changes of water supply in this critical watershed. However, the specific causes of the decline in the Miyun Reservoir are debatable under a non-stationary climate in the past 4 decades. The central objective of this study was to quantify the separate and collective contributions of land use change and climate variability to the decreasing inflow into the Miyun Reservoir during 1961–2008. Different from previous studies on this watershed, we used a comprehensive approach to quantify the timing of changes in hydrology and associated environmental variables using the long-term historical hydrometeorology and remote-sensing-based land use records. To effectively quantify the different impacts of the climate variation and land use change on streamflow during different sub-periods, an annual water balance model (AWB), the climate elasticity model (CEM), and a rainfall–runoff model (RRM) were employed to conduct attribution analysis synthetically. We found a significant (p  <  0.01) decrease in annual streamflow, a significant positive trend in annual potential evapotranspiration (p  <  0.01), and an insignificant (p  >  0.1) negative trend in annual precipitation during 1961–2008. We identified two streamflow breakpoints, 1983 and 1999, by the sequential Mann–Kendall test and double-mass curve. Climate variability alone did not explain the decrease in inflow to the Miyun Reservoir. Reduction of water yield was closely related to increase in actual evapotranspiration due to the expansion of forestland and reduction in cropland and grassland, and was likely exacerbated by increased water consumption for domestic and industrial uses in the basin. The contribution to the observed streamflow decline from land use change fell from 64–92 % during 1984–1999 to 36–58 % during 2000–2008, whereas the contribution from climate variation climbed from 8–36 % during the 1984–1999 to 42–64 % during 2000–2008. Model uncertainty analysis further demonstrated that climate warming played a dominant role in streamflow reduction in the most recent decade (i.e., 2000s). We conclude that future climate change and variability will further challenge the water supply capacity of the Miyun Reservoir to meet water demand. A comprehensive watershed management strategy needs to consider the climate variations besides vegetation management in the study basin.

Regional and annual variation in black-legged kittiwake breeding productivity is related to sea surface temperature

Spatiotemporal variation in seabird demographic parameters is often pronounced and may be an important source of information on the state of marine ecosystems. Black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla in Britain and Ireland show strong regional structure in breeding productivity, and both temporal and spatial variation are probably related to abundance of the principal prey of breeding kittiwakes, the lesser sandeel Ammodytes marinus. Annual regional estimates of sandeel abundance do not exist, prohibiting direct tests of this hypothesis. We examined relationships between kittiwake breeding productivity and 2 potential proxies of sandeel abundance, winter sea surface temperature (SST) and abundance of Calanus copepods, within and among 6 regions in Britain and Ireland from 1986 to 2004. Means and trends in winter SST differed among regions, with higher means and less pronounced increasing trends in western (Atlantic) regions than in eastern (North Sea) regions. A negative relationship between breeding productivity and winter SST in the previous year was found within 2 regions (East Scotland and Orkney), as well as in a cross-regional analysis. Results were inconclusive for Calanus abundance, with a positive relationship in East Scotland and negative in Orkney. These results demonstrate that although a single environmental driver (SST) is related to both within- and between-region variation in a key demographic parameter, regional heterogeneity in SST trends as well as the importance of other factors may lead to highly variable responses. Understanding this heterogeneity is critical for predicting long-term effects of climate change or other anthropogenic drivers on marine ecosystems.

Lipid productivity and cell wall ultrastructure of six strains of Nannochloropsis: Implications for biofuel production and downstream processing

Microalgae are generating considerable interest for third generation biodiesel production. However, appropriate strain selection is proving challenging due to the significant variation in cellular physiology, metabolic potential and genetics observed even amongst strains deemed morphologically similar. Six strains of Nannochloropsis from the CCAP culture collection were assessed for their lipid productivity and cellular structure, as proxies for oil production and harvesting ease, to assess their suitability as biodiesel production platforms. Differences in growth rate and lipid accumulation across the strains were observed. Nannochloropsis oculata strain 849/7 showed significantly reduced doubling time compared to Nannochloropsis salina strain 849/3, whilst Nannochloropsis oceanica 849/10 produced the highest lipid content. In addition the six strains could be differentiated into 3 distinct classes based on their cell wall thickness, which varied across the strains from 63 to 119 nm and which is independent of both species and geographical isolation location. The importance of these variations in ultrastructure and physiology for biodiesel production is discussed.

Developments since 2005 in understanding potential environmental impacts of CO2 leakage from geological storage

This paper reviews research into the potential environmental impacts of leakage from geological storage of CO2 since the publication of the IPCC Special Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage in 2005. Possible impacts are considered on onshore (including drinking water aquifers) and offshore ecosystems. The review does not consider direct impacts on man or other land animals from elevated atmospheric CO2 levels. Improvements in our understanding of the potential impacts have come directly from CO2 storage research but have also benefitted from studies of ocean acidification and other impacts on aquifers and onshore near surface ecosystems. Research has included observations at natural CO2 sites, laboratory and field experiments and modelling. Studies to date suggest that the impacts from many lower level fault- or well-related leakage scenarios are likely to be limited spatially and temporarily and recovery may be rapid. The effects are often ameliorated by mixing and dispersion of the leakage and by buffering and other reactions; potentially harmful elements have rarely breached drinking water guidelines. Larger releases, with potentially higher impact, would be possible from open wells or major pipeline leaks but these are of lower probability and should be easier and quicker to detect and remediate.

Projecting marine fish production and catch potential in Bangladesh in the 21st century under long-term environmental change and management scenarios

The fisheries sector is crucial to the Bangladeshi economy and wellbeing, accounting for 4.4% of national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 22.8% of agriculture sector production, and supplying ca.60% of the national animal protein intake. Fish is vital to the 16 million Bangladeshis living near the coast, a number that has doubled since the 1980s. Here we develop and apply tools to project the long term productive capacity of Bangladesh marine fisheries under climate and fisheries management scenarios, based on downscaling a global climate model, using associated river flow and nutrient loading estimates, projecting high resolution changes in physical and biochemical ocean properties, and eventually projecting fish production and catch potential under different fishing mortality targets. We place particular interest on Hilsa shad (Tenualosa ilisha), which accounts for ca.11% of total catches, and Bombay duck (Harpadon nehereus), a low price fish that is the second highest catch in Bangladesh and is highly consumed by low income communities. It is concluded that the impacts of climate change, under greenhouse emissions scenario A1B, are likely to reduce the potential fish production in the Bangladesh Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) by less than 10%. However, these impacts are larger for the two target species. Under sustainable management practices we expect Hilsa shad catches to show a minor decline in potential catch by 2030 but a significant (25%) decline by 2060. However, if overexploitation is allowed catches are projected to fall much further, by almost 95% by 2060, compared to the Business as Usual scenario for the start of the 21st century. For Bombay duck, potential catches by 2060 under sustainable scenarios will produce a decline of less than 20% compared to current catches. The results demonstrate that management can mitigate or exacerbate the effects of climate change on ecosystem productivity.