Mechanisms Governing the Eyewall Replacement Cycle in Numerical Simulations of Tropical Cyclones

Eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) is frequently observed during the evolution of intensifying Tropical Cyclones (TCs). Although intensely studied in recent years, the underlying mechanisms of ERC are still poorly understood, and the forecast of ERC remains a great challenge. To advance our understanding of ERC and provide insights in improvement of numerical forecast of ERC, a series of numerical simulations is performed to investigate ERCs in TC-like vortices on a f-plane. The simulated ERCs possess key features similar to those observed in real TCs including the formation of a secondary tangential wind maximum associated with the outer eyewall. The Sawyer-Eliassen equation and tangential momentum budget analyses are performed to diagnose the mechanisms underlying the secondary eyewall formation (SEF) and ERC. Our diagnoses reveal crucial roles of outer rainband heating in governing the formation and development of the secondary tangential wind maximum and demonstrate that the outer rainband convection must reach a critical strength relative to the eyewall before SEF and the subsequent ERC can occur. A positive feedback among low-level convection, acceleration of tangential winds in the boundary layer, and surface evaporation that leads to the development of ERC and a mechanism for the demise of inner eyewall that involves interaction between the transverse circulations induced by eyewall and outer rainband convection are proposed. The tangential momentum budget indicates that the net tendency of tangential wind is a small residual resultant from a large cancellation between tendencies induced by the resolved and sub-grid scale (SGS) processes. The large SGS contribution to the tangential wind budget explains different characteristics of ERC shown in previous numerical studies and poses a great challenge for a timely correct forecast of ERC. The sensitivity experiments show that ERCs are strongly subjected to model physics, vortex radial structure and background wind. The impact of model physics on ERC can be well understood with the interaction among eyewall/outer rainband heating, radilal inflow in the boundary layer, surface layer turbulent processes, and shallow convection in the moat. However, further investigations are needed to fully understand the exhibited sensitivities of ERC to vortex radial structure and background wind.

Alkenone stable carbon isotopes, carbonate stable carbon and oxygen isotopes, planktic foraminifera boron isotopes and atmospheric CO2 calculations and box model results from Ras il-Pellegrin section, Malta

The development of a permanent, stable ice sheet in East Antarctica happened during the middle Miocene, about 14 million years (Myr) ago. The middle Miocene therefore represents one of the distinct phases of rapid change in the transition from the "greenhouse" of the early Eocene to the "icehouse" of the present day. Carbonate carbon isotope records of the period immediately following the main stage of ice sheet development reveal a major perturbation in the carbon system, represented by the positive d13C excursion known as carbon maximum 6 ("M6"), which has traditionally been interpreted as reflecting increased burial of organic matter and atmospheric pCO2 drawdown. More recently, it has been suggested that the d13C excursion records a negative feedback resulting from the reduction of silicate weathering and an increase in atmospheric pCO2. Here we present high-resolution multi-proxy (alkenone carbon and foraminiferal boron isotope) records of atmospheric carbon dioxide and sea surface temperature across CM6. Similar to previously published records spanning this interval, our records document a world of generally low (~300 ppm) atmospheric pCO2 at a time generally accepted to be much warmer than today. Crucially, they also reveal a pCO2 decrease with associated cooling, which demonstrates that the carbon burial hypothesis for CM6 is feasible and could have acted as a positive feedback on global cooling.

(Table S2) The reconstructed sea surface temperature (SST) over the eastern equatorial Pacific

Abundant hydroclimatic evidence from western Amazonia and the adjacent Andes documents wet conditions during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1, 18-15 ka), a cold period in the high latitudes of the North Atlantic. This precipitation anomaly was attributed to a strengthening of the South American summer monsoon due to a change in the Atlantic interhemispheric sea surface temperature (SST) gradient. However, the physical viability of this mechanism has never been rigorously tested. We address this issue by combining a thorough compilation of tropical South American paleorecords and a set of atmosphere model sensitivity experiments. Our results show that the Atlantic SST variations alone, although leading to dry conditions in northern South America and wet conditions in northeastern Brazil, cannot produce increased precipitation over western Amazonia and the adjacent Andes during HS1. Instead, an eastern equatorial Pacific SST increase (i.e., 0.5-1.5 °C), in response to the slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during HS1, is crucial to generate the wet conditions in these regions. The mechanism works via anomalous low sea level pressure over the eastern equatorial Pacific, which promotes a regional easterly low-level wind anomaly and moisture recycling from central Amazonia towards the Andes.

Clay-mineral composition and biogenic opal content of Late Neogene to Quaternary sediments of the Antarctic Peninsula region

Clay-mineral composition and biogenic opal content in upper Miocene to Quaternary drift sediments recovered at two Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) sites from the continental rise in the Bellingshausen Sea had been analyzed in order to reconstruct the climatic and glacial history of the Antarctic Peninsula. The clay mineral composition at both sites is dominated by smectite, illite, and chlorite, and alternates between a smectite-enriched and a chlorite-enriched assemblage throughout the last 9.3 my. The spatial distribution of clay minerals in Holocene sediments west of the Antarctic Peninsula facilitates the identification of particular source areas, and thus the reconstruction of transport pathways. The similarity to clay mineral variations reported from upper Quaternary sequences suggests that the short-term clay-mineralogical fluctuations in the ODP cores reflect glacial-interglacial cyclicity. Thus, repeated ice advances and retreats in response to a varying size of the Antarctic Peninsula ice cap are likely to have occurred throughout the late Neogene and Quaternary. The clay minerals in the drift sediments exhibit only slight long-term variations, which are caused by local changes in glacial erosion and in supply of source rocks, rather than by major climatic changes. The opal records at the ODP sites are dominated by long-term variations since the late Miocene. We infer that the opal content in the drift sediments, although it is influenced by dissolution in the water column and the sediment column and by the burial with lithogenic detritus, provides a signal of paleoproductivity. Because the annual sea-ice coverage is regarded as the main factor controlling biological productivity, the opal signal helps to reconstruct paleoceanographic changes in the Bellingshausen Sea. Slightly enhanced opal deposition during the late Miocene indicates slightly warmer climatic conditions in the Antarctic Peninsula area than at present. During the early Pliocene, enhanced opal deposition in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean and coinciding high opal concentrations in sedimentary sequences from the Atlantic and Indian sectors document a strong reduction of sea-ice cover and relatively warm climatic conditions. Thereby, the early onset of the Pliocene warmth in the Bellingshausen Sea points to a positive feedback of regional Antarctic climate on the global thermohaline circulation. A decrease of opal deposition between 3.1 and 2.6 Ma likely reflects sea-ice expansion in response to reduced supply of northern-sourced deep-waters to the Southern Ocean, caused by the onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciation. Throughout the Quaternary, a relatively constant level of opal deposition on the Antarctic continental margin indicates relatively stable climatic conditions.

WARMING AND CHRONIC HIGH NUTRIENT MANIPULATIONS YIELD DIFFERING LEGACY EFECTS ON THE SOIL MICROBIAL COMMUNITY AND NUTRIENT POOLS IN THE LOW ARCTIC

Climate warming is predicted to increase summer air temperatures in the Arctic, warming soils and enhancing microbial decomposition of soil organic matter. Given the size of the soil carbon stores in the Arctic, even a fraction of its release as CO2 to the atmosphere could result in a positive feedback to climate warming. Fertilizers have been used in the past to quickly increase soil solution nutrients pools to mimic predicted concentrations under climate warming. However, because it may have inadvertent affects on the soil microbial community, fertilizer-induced patterns in microbial decomposition may be unrealistic. This study aimed to better understand the proposed mechanism of enhanced microbial decomposition under nutrient addition and warming treatments to discern whether warming alone is enough to stimulate enhanced microbial decomposition, or if nutrients in excess (i.e. chronic high nutrient additions) are necessary to yield such a response. I investigated the impacts of 10 years of greenhouse summer warming, chronic low nutrient factorial addition (5 g N and 1g P m-2 year-1, respectively), and chronic high nutrient factorial addition (10 g N and 5g P m-2 year-1, respectively) treatments on a mesic birch hummock tundra ecosystem near Daring Lake, NWT, Canada. Soil microbial nutrient pools, soil solution nutrient pools, and microbial community structure were measured in the upper organic, lower organic, and uppermost mineral soil depth intervals of all treatment plots in Spring 2014. Interestingly, the low nutrient additions did not yield any significant trends, yet the warming treatment increased soil bacterial richness suggesting a legacy effect of warming from the previous summers. Enhanced microbial nutrient uptake occurred only in the high nutrient addition treatments, and did not significantly alter soil carbon at least within the ten year period of this experiment. Together, these results and the absence of significant impacts of the low nutrient and greenhouse warming treatments suggests that nutrient and carbon cycling in these low arctic soils may be resilient against climate warming, at least over the initial decades.

ADVANCED ISLANDING DETECTION METHODS FOR SINGLE PHASE GRID CONNECTED PV INVERTERS

Due to the growing concerns associated with fossil fuels, emphasis has been placed on clean and sustainable energy generation. This has resulted in the increase in Photovoltaics (PV) units being integrated into the utility system. The integration of PV units has raised some concerns for utility power systems, including the consequences of failing to detect islanding. Numerous methods for islanding detection have been introduced in literature. They can be categorized into local methods and remote methods. The local methods are categorically divided into passive and active methods. Active methods generally have smaller Non-Detection Zone (NDZ) but the injecting disturbances will slightly degrade the power quality and reliability of the power system. Slip Mode Frequency Shift Islanding Detection Method (SMS IDM) is an active method that uses positive feedback for islanding detection. In this method, the phase angle of the converter is controlled to have a sinusoidal function of the deviation of the Point of Common Coupling (PCC) voltage frequency from the nominal grid frequency. This method has a non-detection zone which means it fails to detect islanding for specific local load conditions. If the SMS IDM employs a different function other than the sinusoidal function for drifting the phase angle of the inverter, its non-detection zone could be smaller. In addition, Advanced Slip Mode Frequency Shift Islanding Detection Method (Advanced SMS IDM), which has been introduced in this thesis, eliminates the non-detection zone of the SMS IDM. In this method the parameters of SMS IDM change based on the local load impedance value. Moreover, the stability of the system is investigated by developing the dynamical equations of the system for two operation modes; grid connected and islanded mode. It is mathematically proven that for some loading conditions the nominal frequency is an unstable point and the operation frequency slides to another stable point, while for other loading conditions the nominal frequency is the only stable point of the system upon islanding occurring. Simulation and experimental results show the accuracy of the proposed methods in detection of islanding and verify the validity of the mathematical analysis.

Large-scale Roll Out of Online Prospective Measurement of Mood Symptoms in Affective Disorders

Background and Aims: True Colours is an online prospective mood-monitoring system developed at the University of Oxford to assist local patients and clinicians with monitoring course of illness in bipolar disorder. We report our initial experiences of using True Colours for research purposes in the Bipolar Disorder Research Network (BDRN; www.bdrn.org), a large research network of individuals with mood disorders spread throughout the UK. Methods: After initial piloting to ensure the practicality/acceptability of using True Colours within BDRN, we invited all BDRN participants (n = 7000) to participate in weekly True Colours ratings via three postal invitations sent over an 8-month period. Results: Following the three postal invitations, 915 individuals have so far expressed an interest in joining True Colours, and, of these, 662 (72.3%) have registered. 32 of those who registered for True Colours (5%) have so far asked to leave the system. Positive feedback from participants has focused around the ease of use and convenience of True Colours and potential clinical utility of the graphical representation of weekly mood scores. Conclusions: We have demonstrated that large-scale prospective mood monitoring for research purposes using a contemporary online approach is feasible. Challenges have included: (i) variation in participants’ technological ability; (ii) management of requests for clinical advice based on mood scores within a research setting; and, (iii) resources required to provide access and on-going support for participants using True Colours. We continue to expand recruitment to True Colours within BDRN, and plan to trial email invitations in the next phase of recruitment.

SYSTEMS OF DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONSTHAT ARE COMPETITIVE OR COOPERATIVE II:CONVERGENCE ALMOST EVERYWHERE*MORRIS W. HIRSCH

A vector field in n-space determines a competitive (or cooperative) system of differential equations provided all of the off-diagonal terms of its Jacobian matrix are nonpositive (or nonnegative). The main results in this article are the following. A cooperative system cannot have nonconstant attracting periodic solutions. In a cooperative system whose Jacobian matrices are irreducible the forward orbit converges for almost every point having compact forward orbit closure. In a cooperative system in 2 dimensions, every solution is eventually monotone.  Applications are made to generalizations of positive feedback loops.

dachshund Potentiates Hedgehog Signaling during Drosophila Retinogenesis

Proper organ patterning depends on a tight coordination between cell proliferation and differentiation. The patterning of Drosophila retina occurs both very fast and with high precision. This process is driven by the dynamic changes in signaling activity of the conserved Hedgehog (Hh) pathway, which coordinates cell fate determination, cell cycle and tissue morphogenesis. Here we show that during Drosophila retinogenesis, the retinal determination gene dachshund (dac) is not only a target of the Hh signaling pathway, but is also a modulator of its activity. Using developmental genetics techniques, we demonstrate that dac enhances Hh signaling by promoting the accumulation of the Gli transcription factor Cubitus interruptus (Ci) parallel to or downstream of fused. In the absence of dac, all Hh-mediated events associated to the morphogenetic furrow are delayed. One of the consequences is that, posterior to the furrow, dac- cells cannot activate a Roadkill-Cullin3 negative feedback loop that attenuates Hh signaling and which is necessary for retinal cells to continue normal differentiation. Therefore, dac is part of an essential positive feedback loop in the Hh pathway, guaranteeing the speed and the accuracy of Drosophila retinogenesis.

Dynamics of a large submersed plant bed in upper Chesapeake Bay

A large SAV bed in upper Chesapeake Bay has experienced several abrupt shifts over the past half-century, beginning with near-complete loss after a record-breaking flood in 1972, followed by an unexpected, rapid resurgence in the early 2000’s, then partial decline in 2011 following another major flood event. Together, these trends and events provide a unique opportunity to study a recovering SAV ecosystem from several different perspectives. First, I analyzed and synthesized existing time series datasets to make inferences about what factors prompted the recovery. Next, I analyzed existing datasets, together with field samples and a simple hydrodynamic model to investigate mechanisms of SAV bed loss and resilience to storm events. Finally, I conducted field deployments and experiments to explore how the bed affects internal physical and biogeochemical processes and what implications those effects have for the dynamics of the system. I found that modest reductions in nutrient loading, coupled with several consecutive dry years likely facilitated the SAV resurgence. Furthermore, positive feedback processes may have played a role in the sudden nature of the recovery because they could have reinforced the state of the bed before and after the abrupt shift. I also found that scour and poor water clarity associated with sediment deposition during the 2011 flood event were mechanisms of plant loss. However, interactions between the bed, water flow, and waves served as mechanisms of resilience because these processes created favorable growing conditions (i.e., clear water, low flow velocities) in the inner core of the bed. Finally, I found that that interactions between physical and biogeochemical processes led to low nutrient concentrations inside the bed relative to outside the bed, which created conditions that precluded algal growth and reinforced vascular plant dominance. This work demonstrates that positive feedbacks play a central role in SAV resilience to both chronic eutrophication as well as acute storm events. Furthermore, I show that analysis of long-term ecological monitoring data, together with field measurements and experiments, can be an effective approach for understanding the mechanisms underlying ecosystem dynamics.

Plant-derived compounds stimulate the decomposition of organic matter in arctic permafrost soils

Arctic ecosystems are warming rapidly, which is expected to promote soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition. In addition to the direct warming effect, decomposition can also be indirectly stimulated via increased plant productivity and plant-soil C allocation, and this so called "priming effect" might significantly alter the ecosystem C balance. In this study, we provide first mechanistic insights into the susceptibility of SOM decomposition in arctic permafrost soils to priming. By comparing 119 soils from four locations across the Siberian Arctic that cover all horizons of active layer and upper permafrost, we found that an increased availability of plant-derived organic C particularly stimulated decomposition in subsoil horizons where most of the arctic soil carbon is located. Considering the 1,035 Pg of arctic soil carbon, such an additional stimulation of decomposition beyond the direct temperature effect can accelerate net ecosystem C losses, and amplify the positive feedback to global warming.

The use of Acceptance and Commitment Therapy to address psychological distress experienced by caregivers: a randomised controlled feasibility trial

Background: An extensive research literature has documented the impact of caring for an individual with acquired brain injury (ABI) on caregivers and family members, including role adjustment, psychological distress, social isolation, family tension and coping with the cognitive and behavioural difficulties of the injured person. Given these findings it is important this population have access to services and supports. Acceptance and Commitment Therapy (ACT) is an intervention that helps individuals to accept difficult experiences and commit to behaviour that is consistent with their values. Research into the effectiveness of ACT to support caregivers is at a preliminary stage. Aim: To investigate the feasibility of using ACT to reduce psychological distress and increase psychological flexibility in ABI caregivers. A secondary aim was to gain an understanding of the experience of caregivers in this context and how this can inform the development and delivery of interventions for this population. Method: Phase one was a randomised controlled feasibility trial of an ACT intervention for use with ABI caregivers. The parameters of this study were formulated around the PICO (population, intervention, control, and outcome) framework. Eighteen carers were recruited and randomised to ACT or an enhanced treatment as usual (ETAU) group. ACT was implemented over 3 sessions; and ETAU was implemented over 2 sessions. The General Health Questionnaire, Valuing Questionnaire, Acceptance and Action Questionnaire, Experiential Avoidance of Caregiving Questionnaire and the Flexibility of Responses to Self-Critical Thoughts Scale were administered to both groups at baseline and following the final session. Phase two used a retrospective qualitative design that involved conducting semi-structured interviews with four participants from phase one. Results: ACT and control participants were successfully recruited. Positive feedback was obtained from ACT participants suggesting that the intervention was acceptable. There were no significant differences between the ACT and ETAU groups on outcome measures. However, there were challenges retaining participants and the overall attrition rate was high (44.44%). Therefore a number of participants did not complete the full complement of sessions, which may have impacted on this result. Qualitative results illustrated the challenges this population face including significant adjustments in their life, the emotional impact of having a loved one with a brain injury and trying to adapt to the changes in the injured person. In addition, findings elucidated the types of support that this population would find helpful and the barriers to accessing same. Conclusions: Findings from this study highlight factors that will help the development of this intervention further for a caring population. Recommendations for future implementation include completing some preparatory work with carers before beginning the intervention, consideration of a larger sample and wider recruitment strategy from local services, barriers to attending interventions and the possibility of holding groups in local venues.

Symmetry-breaking in chiral polymerisation

We propose a model for chiral polymerisation and investigate its symmetric and asymmetric solutions. The model has a source species which decays into left- and right-handed types of monomer, each of which can polymerise to form homochiral chains; these chains are susceptible to `poisoning' by the opposite handed monomer. Homochiral polymers are assumed to influence the proportion of each type of monomer formed from the precursor. We show that for certain parameter values a positive feedback mechanism makes the symmetric steady-state solution unstable. The kinetics of polymer formation are then analysed in the case where the system starts from zero concentrations of monomers and chains. We show that following a long induction time, extremely large concentrations of polymers are formed for a short time, during this time an asymmetry introduced into the system by a random external perturbation may be massively amplified. The system then approaches one of the steady-state solutions described above.

Instabilities in threshold-diffusion equations with delay

The introduction of delays into ordinary or partial differential equation models is well known to facilitate the production of rich dynamics ranging from periodic solutions through to spatio-temporal chaos. In this paper we consider a class of scalar partial differential equations with a delayed threshold nonlinearity which admits exact solutions for equilibria, periodic orbits and travelling waves. Importantly we show how the spectra of periodic and travelling wave solutions can be determined in terms of the zeros of a complex analytic function. Using this as a computational tool to determine stability we show that delays can have very different effects on threshold systems with negative as opposed to positive feedback. Direct numerical simulations are used to confirm our bifurcation analysis, and to probe some of the rich behaviour possible for mixed feedback.

Parental feelings face to hospitalization of the child

The hospitalizatíon of a child carnes with it major changes, etther in the child's life or parent. lllness and hospttalizatíon constitute a crisis situation for both the child and the famHy as it incorporates financiai, psychotogical, relational and social changes. The purpose of this work and analyze the satísfactíon and parents' perception on the importance of nursing care during hospttalizatíon and feelings experienced by parents. Objectives: To know the opinions and feelings of the parents in relation to the admlsston of the child 1n the service of Pediatrics at North of Portugal. Methods: Integrated this study parents of chtldren hospttalized in the pediatric inpatíent at the Hospital Trás-os-Montes e alto Douro, Vila Real, whose children were in the service to at least more than 48 hours, In total 33 escorts that replied to the questionnaire. For such a study we chose the type quantitative deschptíve. We proceeded to collect data by conductíng a questíonnaire, and the results of it were drafted in the SPSS program through Quantitatíve model wtth exploratory qualitatíve approach. Results: The age ofthe partícipants is between the 21 and 46 years - old, 75. 8% of respondents were married, 78. 8% of chtldren was hospitalized in the first time. We conclude that the mother is who else accompanies the chtld in the hospital. We had positive feedback regarding the interactíon parent-nurses since many parents stressed the good relatíonship with the nursing team (It reported that "Nurses" and "Nurses and "auxiliaries" were who else helped them, with 30. 3% and 21. 2% respectively). The feelings more mentioned were: anxiety -21 answers, sadness-20, fear-15 and hope with 15. The conditions offered to the parents were considered goodfor60.6%.