Modeling electricity price events as point processes

Energy prices are highly volatile and often feature unexpected spikes. It is the aim of this paper to examine whether the occurrence of these extreme price events displays any regularities that can be captured using an econometric model. Here we treat these price events as point processes and apply Hawkes and Poisson autoregressive models to model the dynamics in the intensity of this process.We use load and meteorological information to model the time variation in the intensity of the process. The models are applied to data from the Australian wholesale electricity market, and a forecasting exercise illustrates both the usefulness of these models and their limitations when attempting to forecast the occurrence of extreme price events.

Bending properties of Ag nanowires with pre-existing surface defects

Materials used in the engineering always contain imperfections or defects which significantly affect their performances. Based on the large-scale molecular dynamics simulation and the Euler–Bernoulli beam theory, the influence from different pre-existing surface defects on the bending properties of Ag nanowires (NWs) is studied in this paper. It is found that the nonlinear-elastic deformation, as well as the flexural rigidity of the NW is insensitive to different surface defects for the studied defects in this paper. On the contrary, an evident decrease of the yield strength is observed due to the existence of defects. In-depth inspection of the deformation process reveals that, at the onset of plastic deformation, dislocation embryos initiate from the locations of surface defects, and the plastic deformation is dominated by the nucleation and propagation of partial dislocations under the considered temperature. Particularly, the generation of stair-rod partial dislocations and Lomer–Cottrell lock are normally observed for both perfect and defected NWs. The generation of these structures has thwarted attempts of the NW to an early yielding, which leads to the phenomenon that more defects does not necessarily mean a lower critical force.

PV string per-module maximum power point enabling converters

Many grid connected PV installations consist of a single series string of PV modules and a single DC-AC inverter. This efficiency of this topology can be enhanced with additional low power, low cost per panel converter modules. Most current flows directly in the series string which ensures high efficiency. However parallel Cúk or buck-boost DC-DC converters connected across each adjacent pair of modules now support any desired current difference between series connected PV modules. Each converter “shuffles” the desired difference in PV module currents between two modules and so on up the string. Spice simulations show that even with poor efficiency, these modules can make a significant improvement to the overall power which can be recovered from partially shaded PV strings.

Controls on mid-Holocene fringing reef growth and termination in a high latitude, estuarine setting, Wellington Point, Southeast Queensland

Several fringing coral reefs in Moreton Bay, Southeast Queensland, some 300 km south of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), are set in a relatively high latitude, estuarine environment that is considered marginal for coral growth. Previous work indicated that these marginal reefs, as with many fringing reefs of the inner GBR, ceased accreting in the mid-Holocene. This research presents for the first time data from the subsurface profile of the mid-Holocene fossil reef at Wellington Point comprising U/Th dates of in situ and framework corals, and trace element analysis from the age constrained carbonate fragments. Based on trace element proxies the palaeo-water quality during reef accretion was reconstructed. Results demonstrate that the reef initiated more than 7,000 yr BP during the post glacial transgression, and the initiation progressed to the west as sea level rose. In situ micro-atolls indicate that sea level was at least 1 m above present mean sea level by 6,680 years ago. The reef remained in "catch-up" mode, with a seaward sloping upper surface, until it stopped aggrading abruptly at ca 6,000 yr BP; no lateral progradation occurred. Changes in sediment composition encountered in the cores suggest that after the laterite substrate was covered by the reef, most of the sediment was produced by the carbonate factory with minimal terrigenous influence. Rare earth element, Y and Ba proxies indicate that water quality during reef accretion was similar to oceanic waters, considered suitable for coral growth. A slight decline in water quality on the basis of increased Ba in the later stages of growth may be related to increased riverine input and partial closing up of the bay due to either tidal delta progradation, climatic change and/or slight sea level fall. The age data suggest that termination of reef growth coincided with a slight lowering of sea level, activation of ENSO and consequent increase in seasonality, lowering of temperatures and the constrictions to oceanic flushing. At the cessation of reef accretion the environmental conditions in the western Moreton Bay were changing from open marine to estuarine. The living coral community appears to be similar to the fossil community, but without the branching Acropora spp. that were more common in the fossil reef. In this marginal setting coral growth periods do not always correspond to periods of reef accretion due to insufficient coral abundance. Due to several environmental constraints modern coral growth is insufficient for reef growth. Based on these findings Moreton Bay may be unsuitable as a long term coral refuge for most species currently living in the GBR.

mTOR function in skeletal muscle : a focal point for overnutrition and exercise

The mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) is a highly conserved atypical serine-threonine kinase that controls numerous functions essential for cell homeostasis and adaptation in mammalian cells via 2 distinct protein complex formations. Moreover, mTOR is a key regulatory protein in the insulin signalling cascade and has also been characterized as an insulin-independent nutrient sensor that may represent a critical mediator in obesity-related impairments of insulin action in skeletal muscle. Exercise characterizes a remedial modality that enhances mTOR activity and subsequently promotes beneficial metabolic adaptation in skeletal muscle. Thus, the metabolic effects of nutrients and exercise have the capacity to converge at the mTOR protein complexes and subsequently modify mTOR function. Accordingly, the aim of the present review is to highlight the role of mTOR in the regulation of insulin action in response to overnutrition and the capacity for exercise to enhance mTOR activity in skeletal muscle.

The role of defects, or active states, in surface electrochemistry with particular reference to gold in neutral solution

Metastable, active, or nonequilibrium states due to the presence of abnormal structures and various types of defects are well known in metallurgy. The role of such states at gold surfaces in neutral aqueous media (an important electrode system in the microsensor area) was explored using cyclic voltammetry. It was demonstrated that, as postulated in earlier work from this laboratory, there is a close relationship between premonolayer oxidation, multilayer hydrous oxide reduction and electrocatalytic behaviour in the case of this and other metal electrode systems. Some of the most active, and therefore most important, entities at surfaces (e.g., metal adatoms) are not readily imageable or detectable by high resolution surface microscopy techniques. Cyclic voltammetry, however, provides significant, though not highly specific, information about such species. The main conclusion is that further practical and theoretical work on active states of metal surfaces is highly desirable as their behaviour is not simple and is of major importance in many electrocatalytic processes.

Local plastic mechanisms in thin steel plates under in-plane compression

Thin-walled steel plates subjected to in-plane compression develop two types of local plastic mechanism, namely the roof-shaped mechanism and the so-called flip-disc mechanism, but the intriguing question of why two mechanisms should develop was not answered until recently. It was considered that the location of first yield point shifted from the centre of the plate to the midpoint of the longitudinal edge depending on the b/t ratio, imperfection level, and yield stress of steel, which then decided the type of mechanism. This paper has verified this hypothesis using analysis and laboratory experiments. An elastic analysis using Galerkin's method to solve Marguerre's equations was first used to determine the first yield point, based on which the local plastic mechanism/imperfection tolerance tables have been developed which give the type of mechanism as a function of b/t ratio, imperfection level and yield stress of steel. Laboratory experiments of thin-walled columns verified the imperfection tolerance tables and thus indirectly the hypothesis. Elastic and rigid-plastic curves were them used to predict the effect on the ultimate load due to the change of mechanism. A finite element analysis of selected cases also confirmed the results from simple analyses and experiments.

A point prevalence study of cancer nursing practices for managing intravascular devices in an Australian tertiary cancer center

Purpose The use of intravascular devices is associated with a number of potential complications. Despite a number of evidence-based clinical guidelines in this area, there continues to be nursing practice discrepancies. This study aims to examine nursing practice in a cancer care setting to identify nursing practice and areas for improvement respective to best available evidence. Methods A point prevalence survey was undertaken in a tertiary cancer care centre in Queensland, Australia. On a randomly selected day, four nurses assessed intravascular device related nursing practices and collected data using a standardized survey tool. Results 58 inpatients (100%) were assessed. Forty-eight (83%) had a device in situ, comprising 14 Peripheral Intravenous Catheters (29.2%), 14 Peripherally Inserted Central Catheters (29.2%), 14 Hickman catheters (29.2%) and six Port-a-Caths (12.4%). Suboptimal outcomes such as incidences of local site complications, incorrect/inadequate documentation, lack of flushing orders, and unclean/non intact dressings were observed. Conclusions This study has highlighted a number of intravascular device related nursing practice discrepancies compared with current hospital policy. Education and other implementation strategies can be applied to improve nursing practice. Following education strategies, it will be valuable to repeat this survey on a regular basis to provide feedback to nursing staff and implement strategies to improve practice. More research is required to provide evidence to clinical practice with regards to intravascular device related consumables, flushing technique and protocols.

Effect of defects on fracture strength of graphene sheets

With a hexagonal monolayer network of carbon atoms, graphene has demonstrated exceptional electrical 22 and mechanical properties. In this work, the fracture of graphene sheets with Stone–Wales type defects and vacancies were investigated using molecular dynamics simulations at different temperatures. The initiation of defects via bond rotation was also investigated. The results indicate that the defects and vacancies can cause significant strength loss in graphene. The fracture strength of graphene is also affected by temperature and loading directions. The simulation results were compared with the prediction from the quantized fracture mechanics.

Advantages of exploiting projection structure for segmenting dense 3D point clouds

Timely and comprehensive scene segmentation is often a critical step for many high level mobile robotic tasks. This paper examines a projected area based neighbourhood lookup approach with the motivation towards faster unsupervised segmentation of dense 3D point clouds. The proposed algorithm exploits the projection geometry of a depth camera to find nearest neighbours which is time independent of the input data size. Points near depth discontinuations are also detected to reinforce object boundaries in the clustering process. The search method presented is evaluated using both indoor and outdoor dense depth images and demonstrates significant improvements in speed and precision compared to the commonly used Fast library for approximate nearest neighbour (FLANN) [Muja and Lowe, 2009].

Point-to-point speed enforcement : recommendations for better practice

Point-to-point speed cameras are a relatively new and innovative technological approach to speed enforcement that is increasingly been used in a number of highly motorised countries. Previous research has provided evidence of the positive impact of this approach on vehicle speeds and crash rates, as well as additional traffic related outcomes such as vehicle emissions and traffic flow. This paper reports on the conclusions and recommendations of a large-scale project involving extensive consultation with international and domestic (Australian) stakeholders to explore the technological, operational, and legislative characteristics associated with the technology. More specifically, this paper provides a number of recommendations for better practice regarding the implementation of point-to-point speed enforcement in the Australian and New Zealand context. The broader implications of the research, as well as directions for future research, are also discussed.

A reference station-based GNSS computing mode to support unified precise point positioning and real-time kinematic services

Currently, the GNSS computing modes are of two classes: network-based data processing and user receiver-based processing. A GNSS reference receiver station essentially contributes raw measurement data in either the RINEX file format or as real-time data streams in the RTCM format. Very little computation is carried out by the reference station. The existing network-based processing modes, regardless of whether they are executed in real-time or post-processed modes, are centralised or sequential. This paper describes a distributed GNSS computing framework that incorporates three GNSS modes: reference station-based, user receiver-based and network-based data processing. Raw data streams from each GNSS reference receiver station are processed in a distributed manner, i.e., either at the station itself or at a hosting data server/processor, to generate station-based solutions, or reference receiver-specific parameters. These may include precise receiver clock, zenith tropospheric delay, differential code biases, ambiguity parameters, ionospheric delays, as well as line-of-sight information such as azimuth and elevation angles. Covariance information for estimated parameters may also be optionally provided. In such a mode the nearby precise point positioning (PPP) or real-time kinematic (RTK) users can directly use the corrections from all or some of the stations for real-time precise positioning via a data server. At the user receiver, PPP and RTK techniques are unified under the same observation models, and the distinction is how the user receiver software deals with corrections from the reference station solutions and the ambiguity estimation in the observation equations. Numerical tests demonstrate good convergence behaviour for differential code bias and ambiguity estimates derived individually with single reference stations. With station-based solutions from three reference stations within distances of 22–103 km the user receiver positioning results, with various schemes, show an accuracy improvement of the proposed station-augmented PPP and ambiguity-fixed PPP solutions with respect to the standard float PPP solutions without station augmentation and ambiguity resolutions. Overall, the proposed reference station-based GNSS computing mode can support PPP and RTK positioning services as a simpler alternative to the existing network-based RTK or regionally augmented PPP systems.

Development of Contact Lenses from a Biomaterial Point of View – Materials, Manufacture, and Clinical Application

Rigid lenses, which were originally made from glass (between 1888 and 1940) and later from polymethyl methacrylate or silicone acrylate materials, are uncomfortable to wear and are now seldom fitted to new patients. Contact lenses became a popular mode of ophthalmic refractive error correction following the discovery of the first hydrogel material – hydroxyethyl methacrylate – by Czech chemist Otto Wichterle in 1960. To satisfy the requirements for ocular biocompatibility, contact lenses must be transparent and optically stable (for clear vision), have a low elastic modulus (for good comfort), have a hydrophilic surface (for good wettability), and be permeable to certain metabolites, especially oxygen, to allow for normal corneal metabolism and respiration during lens wear. A major breakthrough in respect of the last of these requirements was the development of silicone hydrogel soft lenses in 1999 and techniques for making the surface hydrophilic. The vast majority of contact lenses distributed worldwide are mass-produced using cast molding, although spin casting is also used. These advanced mass-production techniques have facilitated the frequent disposal of contact lenses, leading to improvements in ocular health and fewer complications. More than one-third of all soft contact lenses sold today are designed to be discarded daily (i.e., ‘daily disposable’ lenses).

Urban traffic state estimation: Fusing point and zone based data

Loop detectors are the oldest and widely used traffic data source. On urban arterials, they are mainly installed for signal control. Recently state of the art Bluetooth MAC Scanners (BMS) has significantly captured the interest of stakeholders for exploiting it for area wide traffic monitoring. Loop detectors provide flow- a fundamental traffic parameter; whereas BMS provides individual vehicle travel time between BMS stations. Hence, these two data sources complement each other, and if integrated should increase the accuracy and reliability of the traffic state estimation. This paper proposed a model that integrates loops and BMS data for seamless travel time and density estimation for urban signalised network. The proposed model is validated using both real and simulated data and the results indicate that the accuracy of the proposed model is over 90%.