934 resultados para out-of-sample forecast


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AIM: To understand the uniqueness of the experience of testing HIV positive from the perspective of pregnant women.

BACKGROUND: As more people learn of their HIV diagnosis through routine screening processes, it is timely to reflect on the impact of receiving an unexpected positive result.

DESIGN: A prospective qualitative study.

METHODS: This paper draws on the case studies of four women who were participating in a larger prospective qualitative study of reproductive decision-making, pregnancy and childbirth following HIV diagnosis. Multiple interviews were conducted following diagnosis during pregnancy, and, after the birth of their babies. Thematic data analysis was undertaken.

RESULTS: Drawing on Becker's theory of disruption, we document the 'sudden disjuncture' of their antenatal diagnosis and the embodied emotional struggle the women engaged in to create continuity in their lives. A diagnosis of HIV disrupted the women's biographies in terms of their health, relationships and social identity. As pregnant women, the threat of HIV was experienced most significantly in relation to their unborn child. However, their narratives also revealed how a diagnosis of HIV in the context of pregnancy, whilst traumatic, provided a focus for regaining continuity in their lives, as the baby became a metaphor for hope and orientation toward the future.

CONCLUSIONS: As HIV testing becomes more 'routine', the findings of this study serve to remind health professionals that a positive diagnosis continues to constitute a major trauma to individuals and families.

RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE: We propose that appropriately educated nursing and midwifery staff could facilitate the 'meaning making' process that is required for newly diagnosed HIV positive persons to find a subjective sense of well-being in their lives.

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We propose an exchange rate model that is a hybrid of the conventional specification with monetary fundamentals and the Evans–Lyons microstructure approach. We estimate a model augmented with order flow variables, using a unique data set: almost 100 monthly observations on interdealer order flow on dollar/euro and dollar/yen. The augmented macroeconomic, or “hybrid,” model exhibits greater in-sample stability and out of sample forecasting improvement vis-à-vis the basic macroeconomic and random walk specifications.

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Regulatory authorities, the food industry and the consumer demand reliable determination of chemical contaminants present in foods. A relatively new analytical technique that addresses this need is an immunobiosensor based on surface plasmon resonance (SPR) measurements. Although a range of tests have been developed to measure residues in milk, meat, animal bile and honey, a considerable problem has been encountered with both serum and plasma samples. The high degree of non-specific binding of some sample components can lead to loss of assay robustness, increased rates of false positives and general loss of assay sensitivity. In this paper we describe a straightforward precipitation technique to remove interfering substances from serum samples to be analysed for veterinary anthelmintics by SPR. This technique enabled development of an assay to detect a wide range of benzimidazole residues in serum samples by immunobiosensor. The limit of quantification was below 5 ng/ml and coefficients of variation were about 2%.

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Engagement with globalisation is growing in the field of youth transitions from out of home care. This includes cross national exchange of research, policy and practise, regional advocacy networking and global policy development. Furthering this emerging international child welfare perspective requires extending it to countries in the developing world and building conceptual frameworks which encompass a social ecology of care leaving, including its global dimension, the latter needs to address not only the needs, expectations and rights of care leavers but also the theories of change underpinning service design and delivery. Such a model is presented combining resilience and social capital as personal assets situated within a social ecology of support. To illustrate how this provides a means to help engage with the experience of countries where there appears to be very little information available on care leaving, a small scale South African initiative is considered. SA-YES is a youth mentoring project for young people leaving a variety of out of home placements. Planned as a three-year pilot, initial results are encouraging but require more rigorous evaluation focusing on program process and outcomes, quality of interpersonal relationships and synchronisation with cultural expectations and policy environment.

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The recycling of the lipid carrier undecaprenyl-phosphate (Und-P) requires the dephosphorylation of Und-PP, a reaction proposed to occur at the external or periplasmic side of the bacterial cell membrane. In this issue of Molecular Microbiology, experiments based on the analysis of lipopolysaccharide modifications in Escherichia coli demonstrate that the phosphorylation of lipid A at position 1 is catalysed by the membrane enzyme LpxT (formerly YeiU). This enzyme specifically transfers the distal phosphate group from Und-PP to lipid A 1-phosphate to produce lipid A 1-diphosphate. Furthermore, this reaction requires a functionally intact MsbA protein, which catalyses the transfer of lipid A across the membrane, confirming that the LpxT-mediated lipid A modification occurs on the periplasmic side of the membrane. These observations provide a novel and unexpected link between periplasmic lipid A modifications and the Und-PP recycling pathway.

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The characterisation of soils for civil engineering purposes depends on removing sufficiently high-quality samples from the ground. Accurate evaluation of sample quality is therefore important if reliable design parameters are to be determined. This paper describes the use of unconfined shear wave velocity (V s) and suction (u r) measurements to assess sample quality rapidly in soft clay. Samples of varying quality from three well-characterised soft clay sites are initially assessed using conventional techniques, and their results compared with V s and u r measurements performed on the same samples. It is observed that the quality of samples indicated by these measurements is very similar to those inferred from traditional disturbance measures, with V s being the more reliable indicator. A tentative empirically derived criterion, based on samples tested in this project, is proposed to quantify sample disturbance combining both V s and u r measurements. Further work using this criterion on different materials is important so as to test its usefulness.

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The relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of passive scattered (PS) and pencil beam scanned (PBS) proton beam delivery techniques for uniform beam configurations was determined by clonogenic survival. The radiobiological impact of modulated beam configurations on cell survival occurring in- or out-of-field for both delivery techniques was determined with intercellular communication intact or physically inhibited. Cell survival responses were compared to those observed using a 6 MV photon beam produced with a linear accelerator. DU-145 cells showed no significant difference in survival response to proton beams delivered by PS and PBS or 6 MV photons taking into account a RBE of 1.1 for protons at the centre of the spread out Bragg peak. Significant out-of-field effects similar to those observed for 6 MV photons were observed for both PS and PBS proton deliveries with cell survival decreasing to 50-60% survival for scattered doses of 0.05 and 0.03 Gy for passive scattered and pencil beam scanned beams respectively. The observed out-of-field responses were shown to be dependent on intercellular communication between the in-and out-of-field cell populations. These data demonstrate, for the first time, a similar RBE between passive and actively scanned proton beams and confirm that out-of-field effects may be important determinants of cell survival following exposure to modulated photon and proton fields

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The aim of this work is to determine the out-of-field survival of cells irradiated with either the primary field or scattered radiation in the presence and absence of intercellular communication following delivery of conformal, IMRT and VMAT treatment plans. Single beam, conformal, IMRT and VMAT plans were created to deliver 3 Gy to half the area of a T80 flask containing either DU-145 or AGO-1522 cells allowing intercellular communication between the in-and out-of-field cell populations. The same plans were delivered to a similar custom made phantom used to hold two T25 culture flasks, one flask in-field and one out-of-field to allow comparison of cell survival responses when intercellular communication is physically inhibited. Plans were created for the delivery of 8 Gy to the more radio-resistant DU-145 cells only in the presence and absence of intercellular communication. Cell survival was determined by clonogenic assay. In both cell lines, the out-of-field survival was not statistically different between delivery techniques for either cell line or dose. There was however, a statistically significant difference between survival out-of-field when intercellular communication was intact (single T80 culture flask) or inhibited (multiple T25 culture flasks) to in-field for all plans. No statistically significant difference was observed in-field with or without cellular communication to out-of-field for all plans. These data demonstrate out-of-field effects as important determinants of cell survival following exposure to modulated irradiation fields when cellular communication between differentially irradiated cell populations is present. This data is further evidence that refinement of existing radiobiological models to include indirect cell killing effects is required.

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Although many of the debates around social exclusion and cumulative disadvantage relate to processes that occur across time, there has been relatively little research into poverty dynamics except in a few notable countries such as Britain, the USA and Germany. This neglect is almost entirely because of the absence of comparative longitudinal data on income for other countries, but it is regrettable given the central importance of this area. By studying poverty dynamics we not only get a better insight into the processes leading to patterns of disadvantage and inequality, but we can also understand better the influence of different welfare state regimes on the social risks experienced by different types of individuals and households. The extent to which different national contexts protect their citizens from poverty persistence, or vary in the factors leading to poverty persistence, tells us a great deal about the workings of their socioeconomic systems and welfare regimes.

In this article we use the recent availability of five waves of the European Community Household Panel Survey to outline the nature of poverty persistence and poverty dynamics across a large number of countries. In doing so we ask three important questions. First, is poverty a more common experience when viewed longitudinally rather than cross-sectionally, and how is this affected by the income poverty line used? Second, can we identify a tendency toward poverty persistence, and does this vary in its extent across countries? Third and lastly, what types of events are more likely to lead to entry into and exit from poverty, and does the importance of these events differ between countries? The article shows that the experience of poverty is far wider than is appreciated from cross-sectional data, and also tends to be more concentrated on a particular population than would be expected from cross-sectional rates. Moreover, the pattern of poverty persistence is congruent with welfare regime theory. The importance of country institutions and welfare regimes is also underlined by the finding that social welfare and market incomes play different roles in poverty transitions across countries, and that Southern European, or residualist, welfare regimes focus poverty risks on the experience of the household's primary earner to a far greater extent than Northern European welfare states do.