Stationary Eddies and Zonal Variations of the Global Hydrological Cycle in a Changing Climate

This thesis advances our physical understanding of the sensitivity of the hydrological cycle to global warming. Specifically, it focuses on changes in the longitudinal (zonal) variation of precipitation minus evaporation (P - E), which is predominantly controlled by planetary-scale stationary eddies. By studying idealized general circulation model (GCM) experiments with zonally varying boundary conditions, this thesis examines the mechanisms controlling the strength of stationary-eddy circulations and their role in the hydrological cycle. The overarching goal of this research is to understand the cause of changes in regional P - E with global warming. An understanding of such changes can be useful for impact studies focusing on water availability, ecosystem management, and flood risk.

Based on a moisture-budget analysis of ERA-Interim data, we establish an approximation for zonally anomalous P - E in terms of surface moisture content and stationary-eddy vertical motion in the lower troposphere. Part of the success of this approximation comes from our finding that transient-eddy moisture fluxes partially cancel the effect of stationary-eddy moisture advection, allowing divergent circulations to dominate the moisture budget. The lower-tropospheric vertical motion is related to horizontal motion in stationary eddies by Sverdrup and Ekman balance. These moisture- and vorticity-budget balances also hold in idealized and comprehensive GCM simulations across a range of climates.

By examining climate changes in the idealized and comprehensive GCM simulations, we are able to show the utility of the vertical motion P - E approximation for splitting changes in zonally anomalous P - E into thermodynamic and dynamic components. Shifts in divergent stationary-eddy circulations dominate changes in zonally anomalous P - E. This limits the local utility of the "wet gets wetter, dry gets drier” idea, where existing P - E patterns are amplified with warming by the increase in atmospheric moisture content, with atmospheric circulations held fixed. The increase in atmospheric moisture content manifests instead in an increase in the amplitude of the zonally anomalous hydrological cycle as measured by the zonal variance of P - E. However, dynamic changes, particularly the slowdown of divergent stationary-eddy circulations, limit the strengthening of the zonally anomalous hydrological cycle. In certain idealized cases, dynamic changes are even strong enough to reverse the tendency towards "wet gets wetter, dry gets drier” with warming.

Motivated by the importance of stationary-eddy vertical velocities in the moisture budget analysis, we examine controls on the amplitude of stationary eddies across a wide range of climates in an idealized GCM with simple topographic and ocean-heating zonal asymmetries. An analysis of the thermodynamic equation in the vicinity of topographic forcing reveals the importance of on-slope surface winds, the midlatitude isentropic slope, and latent heating in setting the amplitude of stationary waves. The response of stationary eddies to climate change is determined primarily by the strength of zonal surface winds hitting the mountain. The sensitivity of stationary-eddies to this surface forcing increases with climate change as the slope of midlatitude isentropes decreases. However, latent heating also plays an important role in damping the stationary-eddy response, and this damping becomes stronger with warming as the atmospheric moisture content increases. We find that the response of tropical overturning circulations forced by ocean heat-flux convergence is described by changes in the vertical structure of moist static energy and deep convection. This is used to derive simple scalings for the Walker circulation strength that capture the monotonic decrease with warming found in our idealized simulations.

Through the work of this thesis, the advances made in understanding the amplitude of stationary-waves in a changing climate can be directly applied to better understand and predict changes in the zonally anomalous hydrological cycle.

Campagne Rythnic 07/05/1980 - 15/05/1980: résultats des chalutages pour l'étude des variations nycthémérales d'abondance des espèces démersales de Côte d'Ivoire

As explained in the title, this campaign aimed to assess the diurnal vertical variations in abundance of demersal species off the Côte d'Ivoire

Variations saisonnières des facteurs hydrologiques et du biovolume microalgal benthique au sein d'un habitat artificiel (acadja-enclos) dans la lagune Ebrié: site d'Adjapoté

This paper presents the results of a comparative study of chemical and physical characteristics (temperature, oxygen, salinity, turbidity, pH, nutrient: phosphates, nitrates, nitrites, ammoniac) within the extensive aquaculture structure (acadja-enclosure or artificial habitats for fishes) and in the surrounding water. Biological characteristics of the periphyton growing on bamboos from acadja-enclosure were also described.

Variations temporelles de Vibrio cholerae Non 01 et conditions environnementales dans un site aquacole (Lagune Ebrié, Côte d'Ivoire)

The annual cycle of Vibrio cholerae in the environment surrounding the Layo aquaculture facility (Ebrié lagoon) was studied from March 1991 to April 1992. Vibrio cholerae counts were coupled with the determination of physical and chemical characteristics of water and the estimation of biological richness of this environment.

Biologie de Penaeus duorarum notialis en Côte d'Ivoire. 4 - Rélations entre la répartition et les conditions du milieu. Étude des variations du sex-ratio

The analysis of the geographic and bathymetric distribution of Penaeus duorarum and, particularly P. d. notialis off Côte d'Ivoire and in its whole distribution area leads to the definition of the adult ecological requirements (temperature, salinity, grain size and sediment composition, organic matter) and the importance of the thermocline in the bathmetric distribution. The population structure study shows: (1) variations of size with depth, (2) variations of sex ratio, with size, depth and seasons.

Biologie de Penaeus duorarum en Côte d'Ivoire. 3. Étude des variations quotidiennes des rendements et leur relations avec l'hydroclimat. Essai de généralisation au Golfe de Guinée

Hydroclimatic conditions in the Gulf of Guinea between Senegal and Nigeria are briefly described emphasizing the seasonal variations of transparency. Analysis of the Abidjan based shrimp fleet allowed to the description of the seasonal variations of activity rhythms for Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, and Nigeria. These rhythms are different between seasons, between fishing grounds, and sometimes even between depths on a given ground. These variations follow the turbidity ones. Diurnal activity is observed in very turbid waters, nocturnal and transition activity in clearer ones. The authors assume that the basic behaviour is a nocturnal one, but that the shrimp-trawlers catches reflect some apparently different ones resulting from diel variations in the stock availability. To explain the apparently diurnal behaviour observed most of the year over the whole Gulf of Guinea it is suggested that these generally benthic shrimps become nectonic at night when turbidity is very high. The results obtained in Ivory Coast, Ghana and Nigeria are compared to those from Senegal where hydroclimatic conditions are different. The similarities are emphasized. The differences in observed behaviour are supposedly caused by the cold season water temps which are sufficiently low to disturb the nor mal activity rhythm.

Aspects principaux des variations du phytoplancton sur le plateau continental ivorien

21 surveys over the whole Ivorian continental shelf lead to a description of the phytoplankton repartition according to the different seasons: great and small cold seasons, discharge seasons, and warm seasons. Yearly means of surface cells concentrations range from 1000 to 30000 cells per liter, corresponding to a daily production of 386 to 1166 mg C/m2, according to regression analysis. These values make Côte d'Ivoire a rather rich region, which is subjected to wide standing crop variations.

Copépodes pélagiques du plateau ivoirien. Utilisation de I'analyse des correspondances dans l'étude des variations saisonnières

Several 'analyses factorielles des correspondences' were used with the numerical data of planktonic copepods issued from a 1 year sampling programme at different stations of the Ivorian shelf. The main results were the following: (1) 'Ecological seasons' approximately corresponding to hydrological seasons may be defined for planktonic populations. (2) Each 'season' is characterized by one group of species, whose maximum abundance occurs in this period. (3) The same definition of ecological season is obtained whether all species present are used or whether only the most important ones are used. (4) The first principal axes may be interpreted as temperature and salinity or as the station's distance from shore.

The movements of salmon in relation to variations in air and water temperatures

The temperature of water in a river system affects fish in various ways; it has an influence on feeding habits, movement and metabolism. All fish vary in their ability to tolerate fluctuations in temperature, but those that live in a reasonably stable environment are more sensitive to major changes (tropical fish) than are salmon which can tolerate abrupt changes. The body temperature of the majority of fish differs from that of the surrounding water by only 0.5 to 1.0 degrees, and changes in temperature can, in many cases, be a signalling factor for some process, for example spawning, migration or feeding. It has been found, after monitoring the activity in 2,623 salmon in the River Lune, that they live in a water temperature of 0-17 degrees. Whilst salmon ova can develop in a temperature range of 0-12 degrees, spawning takes place within a much closer range, and these tolerances will be found in the Report. This report offers data and analysis of fish movement correlated to water temperature for the years 1964/65.