Strategic project evaluation for open pit mining ventures using real options and allied econometric techniques

Open pit mine operations are complex businesses that demand a constant assessment of risk. This is because the value of a mine project is typically influenced by many underlying economic and physical uncertainties, such as metal prices, metal grades, costs, schedules, quantities, and environmental issues, among others, which are not known with much certainty at the beginning of the project. Hence, mining projects present a considerable challenge to those involved in associated investment decisions, such as the owners of the mine and other stakeholders. In general terms, when an option exists to acquire a new or operating mining project, , the owners and stock holders of the mine project need to know the value of the mining project, which is the fundamental criterion for making final decisions about going ahead with the venture capital. However, obtaining the mine project’s value is not an easy task. The reason for this is that sophisticated valuation and mine optimisation techniques, which combine advanced theories in geostatistics, statistics, engineering, economics and finance, among others, need to be used by the mine analyst or mine planner in order to assess and quantify the existing uncertainty and, consequently, the risk involved in the project investment. Furthermore, current valuation and mine optimisation techniques do not complement each other. That is valuation techniques based on real options (RO) analysis assume an expected (constant) metal grade and ore tonnage during a specified period, while mine optimisation (MO) techniques assume expected (constant) metal prices and mining costs. These assumptions are not totally correct since both sources of uncertainty—that of the orebody (metal grade and reserves of mineral), and that about the future behaviour of metal prices and mining costs—are the ones that have great impact on the value of any mining project. Consequently, the key objective of this thesis is twofold. The first objective consists of analysing and understanding the main sources of uncertainty in an open pit mining project, such as the orebody (in situ metal grade), mining costs and metal price uncertainties, and their effect on the final project value. The second objective consists of breaking down the wall of isolation between economic valuation and mine optimisation techniques in order to generate a novel open pit mine evaluation framework called the ―Integrated Valuation / Optimisation Framework (IVOF)‖. One important characteristic of this new framework is that it incorporates the RO and MO valuation techniques into a single integrated process that quantifies and describes uncertainty and risk in a mine project evaluation process, giving a more realistic estimate of the project’s value. To achieve this, novel and advanced engineering and econometric methods are used to integrate financial and geological uncertainty into dynamic risk forecasting measures. The proposed mine valuation/optimisation technique is then applied to a real gold disseminated open pit mine deposit to estimate its value in the face of orebody, mining costs and metal price uncertainties.

Patterns-based evaluation of open source BPM systems: The cases of jBPM, OpenWFE, and Enhydra Shark

In keeping with the proliferation of free software development initiatives and the increased interest in the business process management domain, many open source workflow and business process management systems have appeared during the last few years and are now under active development. This upsurge gives rise to two important questions: What are the capabilities of these systems? and How do they compare to each other and to their closed source counterparts? In other words: What is the state-of-the-art in the area?. To gain an insight into these questions, we have conducted an in-depth analysis of three of the major open source workflow management systems – jBPM, OpenWFE, and Enhydra Shark, the results of which are reported here. This analysis is based on the workflow patterns framework and provides a continuation of the series of evaluations performed using the same framework on closed source systems, business process modelling languages, and web-service composition standards. The results from evaluations of the three open source systems are compared with each other and also with the results from evaluations of three representative closed source systems: Staffware, WebSphere MQ, and Oracle BPEL PM. The overall conclusion is that open source systems are targeted more toward developers rather than business analysts. They generally provide less support for the patterns than closed source systems, particularly with respect to the resource perspective, i.e. the various ways in which work is distributed amongst business users and managed through to completion.

Investigation of barriers to entry into the design-build market in the People’s Republic of China (PRC)

Although the design-build (DB) system has been demonstrated to be an effective delivery method and has gained popularity worldwide, it has not gained the same popularity in the construction market of China. The objective of this study was, theretofore, to investigate the barriers to entry in the DB market. A total of 22 entry barriers were first identified through an open-ended questionnaire survey with 15 top construction professionals in the construction market of China. A broad questionnaire survey was further conducted to prioritize these entry barriers. Statistical analysis of responses shows that the most dominant barriers to entry into the DB market are, namely, lack of design expertise, lack of interest from owners, lack of suitable organization structure, lack of DB specialists, and lack of credit record system. Analysis of variance indicates that there is no difference of opinions among the respondent groups of academia, government departments, state-owned company, and private company, at the 5% significance level, on most of the barriers to entry. Finally, the underlying dimensions of barriers to entry in the DB market were investigated through factor analysis. The results indicate that there are six major underlying dimensions of entry barriers in DB market, which include, namely, the competence of design-builders, difficulty in project procurement, characteristics of DB projects, lack of support from public sectors, the competence of DB owners, and the immaturity of DB market. These findings are useful for both potential and incumbent design-builders to understand and analyze the DB market in China.

Program your city : designing an urban integrated open data API

Cities accumulate and distribute vast sets of digital information. Many decision-making and planning processes in councils, local governments and organisations are based on both real-time and historical data. Until recently, only a small, carefully selected subset of this information has been released to the public – usually for specific purposes (e.g. train timetables, release of planning application through websites to name just a few). This situation is however changing rapidly. Regulatory frameworks, such as the Freedom of Information Legislation in the US, the UK, the European Union and many other countries guarantee public access to data held by the state. One of the results of this legislation and changing attitudes towards open data has been the widespread release of public information as part of recent Government 2.0 initiatives. This includes the creation of public data catalogues such as data.gov.au (U.S.), data.gov.uk (U.K.), data.gov.au (Australia) at federal government levels, and datasf.org (San Francisco) and data.london.gov.uk (London) at municipal levels. The release of this data has opened up the possibility of a wide range of future applications and services which are now the subject of intensified research efforts. Previous research endeavours have explored the creation of specialised tools to aid decision-making by urban citizens, councils and other stakeholders (Calabrese, Kloeckl & Ratti, 2008; Paulos, Honicky & Hooker, 2009). While these initiatives represent an important step towards open data, they too often result in mere collections of data repositories. Proprietary database formats and the lack of an open application programming interface (API) limit the full potential achievable by allowing these data sets to be cross-queried. Our research, presented in this paper, looks beyond the pure release of data. It is concerned with three essential questions: First, how can data from different sources be integrated into a consistent framework and made accessible? Second, how can ordinary citizens be supported in easily composing data from different sources in order to address their specific problems? Third, what are interfaces that make it easy for citizens to interact with data in an urban environment? How can data be accessed and collected?

SOA for business networks - service delivery framework

The next generation of SOA needs to scale for flexible service consumption, beyond organizational boundaries and current B2B applications, into communities, eco-systems, and business networks. In the wider and, ultimately, global settings, new capabilities are needed so that business partners can efficiently and reliably enable, adapt, and expose services where they can be discovered, ordered, consumed, metered, and paid for, through new applications and opportunities, driven by third parties in the global "village". This trend is already underway, in different ways, through various early adopter market segments. For the small medium enterprises segment, Google, Intuit-Microsoft, and others have launched appstores, through which an open-ended array of hosted applications are sourced from the development community and procured as maketplace commondities. In the corporate sector, the marketplace model and business network hubs are being put in place on top of connectivity and network orchestration investments for capitalizing services as tradable assets, seen in banking/finance (e.g. American Express Intelligent Marketplace), logistics (e.g., the E2open hub), and the public sector (e.g., UK DirectGov whole-of-government citizen services delivery).

Natural convection in a triangular enclosure due to non-uniform cooling on top

Natural convection in a triangular enclosure subject to non-uniformly cooling at the inclined surfaces and uniformly heating at the base is investigated numerically. The numerical simulations of the unsteady flows over a range of Rayleigh numbers and aspect ratios are carried out using Finite Volume Method. Since the upper surface is cooled and the bottom surface is heated, the air flow in the enclosure is potentially unstable to Rayleigh Benard instability. It is revealed that the transient flow development in the enclosure can be classified into three distinct stages; an early stage, a transitional stage and a steady stage. It is also found that the flow inside the enclosure strongly depends on the governing parameters; Rayleigh number and aspect ratio. The asymmetric behaviour of the flow about the geometric centre line is discussed in detailed. The heat transfer through the roof and the ceiling as a form of Nusselt number is also reported in this study.

Wikileaks and the challenge of the “Fifth Estate”

The Time magazine ‘Person of theYear’ award is a venerable institution. Established by Time’s founder Henry Luce in 1927 as ‘Man of the Year’, it is an annual award given to ‘a person, couple, group, idea, place, or machine that ‘for better or for worse ... has done the most to influence the events of the year’ (Time 2002, p. 1). In 2010, the award was given to Mark Zuckerberg, the founder and CEO of the social networking site Facebook.There was, however, a strong campaign for the ‘People’s Choice’ award to be given to Julian Assange, the founder and editor-in-chief of Wikileaks, the online whistleblowing site. Earlier in the year Wikileaks had released more than 250 000 US government diplomatic cables through the internet, and the subsequent controver- sies around the actions of Wikileaks and Assange came to be known worldwide as ‘Cablegate’. The focus of this chapter is not on the implications of ‘Cablegate’ for international diplomacy, which continue to have great significance, but rather upon what the emergence of Wikileaks has meant for journalism, and whether it provides insights into the future of journalism. Both Facebook and Wikileaks, as well as social media platforms such as Twitter and YouTube, and independent media practices such as blogging, citizen journalism and crowdsourcing, are manifestations of the rise of social media, or what has also been termed web 2.0.The term ‘web 2.0’ was coined by Tim O’Reilly, and captures the rise of online social media platforms and services, that better realise the collaborative potential of digitally networked media. They do this by moving from the relatively static, top-down notions of interactivity that informed early internet development, towards more open and evolutionary models that better harness collective intelligence by enabling users to become the creators and collaborators in the development of online media content (Musser and O’Reilly 2007; Bruns 2008).

OpenFABMAP : an open source toolbox for appearance-based loop closure detection

Appearance-based loop closure techniques, which leverage the high information content of visual images and can be used independently of pose, are now widely used in robotic applications. The current state-of-the-art in the field is Fast Appearance-Based Mapping (FAB-MAP) having been demonstrated in several seminal robotic mapping experiments. In this paper, we describe OpenFABMAP, a fully open source implementation of the original FAB-MAP algorithm. Beyond the benefits of full user access to the source code, OpenFABMAP provides a number of configurable options including rapid codebook training and interest point feature tuning. We demonstrate the performance of OpenFABMAP on a number of published datasets and demonstrate the advantages of quick algorithm customisation. We present results from OpenFABMAP’s application in a highly varied range of robotics research scenarios.

Prevention of pelvic sepsis in major open pelviperineal injury

Compound pelvic fractures are deemed to be one of the most severe orthopaedic injuries with an extremely high morbidity and mortality. After the initial resuscitation phase the prevention of pelvic sepsis is one of the main treatment goals for patients with an open pelvic fracture. If there is a suspicion of a rectal injury or if the wounds are in the perineal area, The Princess Alexandra Hospital's management plan includes early faecal diversion combined with vigorous soft tissue debridement, VAC(®) therapy and (if indicated) external fixation of the pelvic fracture. We present our flowchart for the treatment of trauma patients with compound pelvic fractures illustrated by a case report describing a 32 year old patient who sustained an open pelvic ring injury in a workplace accident. The aim of this paper is to underline the importance of a safe, straightforward approach to compound pelvic fractures.

Low temperature synthesis of carbon nanotubes on indium tin oxide electrodes for organic solar cells

The electrical performance of indium tin oxide (ITO) coated glass was improved by including a controlled layer of carbon nanotubes directly on top of the ITO film. Multi-wall carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) were synthesized by chemical vapor deposition, using ultra-thin Fe layers as catalyst. The process parameters (temperature, gas flow and duration) were carefully refined to obtain the appropriate size and density of MWCNTs with a minimum decrease of the light harvesting in the cell. When used as anodes for organic solar cells based on poly(3-hexylthiophene) (P3HT) and phenyl-C61-butyric acid methyl ester (PCBM), the MWCNT-enhanced electrodes are found to improve the charge carrier extraction from the photoactive blend, thanks to the additional percolation paths provided by the CNTs. The work function of as-modified ITO surfaces was measured by the Kelvin probe method to be 4.95 eV, resulting in an improved matching to the highest occupied molecular orbital level of the P3HT. This is in turn expected to increase the hole transport and collection at the anode, contributing to the significant increase of current density and open circuit voltage observed in test cells created with such MWCNT-enhanced electrodes.

Mixed convection flow of micropolar fluid in an open ended arc-shape cavity

Numerical simulations for mixed convection of micropolar fluid in an open ended arc-shape cavity have been carried out in this study. Computation is performed using the Alternate Direct Implicit (ADI) method together with the Successive Over Relaxation (SOR) technique for the solution of governing partial differential equations. The flow phenomenon is examined for a range of values of Rayleigh number, 102 ≤ Ra ≤ 106, Prandtl number, 7 ≤ Pr ≤ 50, and Reynolds number, 10 ≤ Re ≤ 100. The study is mainly focused on how the micropolar fluid parameters affect the fluid properties in the flow domain. It was found that despite the reduction of flow in the core region, the heat transfer rate increases, whereas the skin friction and microrotation decrease with the increase in the vortex viscosity parameter, Δ.

Cyclic imides and an open-chain amide carboxylic acid from the facile reaction of cis-cyclohexane-1,2-dicarboxylic anhydride with the isomeric monofluoroanilines

The structures of the cyclic imides cis-2-(2-fluorophenyl)-3a,4,5,6,7,7a-hexahydroisoindole-1,3-dione, C14H14FNO2, (I), and cis-2-(4-fluorophenyl)-3a,4,5,6,7,7a-hexahydroisoindoline-1,3-dione, C14H14FNO2, (III), and the open-chain amide acid rac-cis-2-[(3-fluorophenyl)carbamoyl]cyclohexane-1-carboxylic acid, C14H16FNO3, (II), are reported. Cyclic imides (I) and (III) are conformationally similar, with comparable ring rotations about the imide N-Car bond [the dihedral angles between the benzene ring and the five-membered isoindole ring are 55.40 (8)° for (I) and 51.83 (7)° for (III)]. There are no formal intermolecular hydrogen bonds involved in the crystal packing of either (I) or (III). With the acid (II), in which the meta-related F-atom substituent is rotationally disordered (0.784:0.216), the amide group lies slightly out of the benzene plane [the interplanar dihedral angle is 39.7 (1)°]. Intermolecular amide-carboxyl N-HO hydrogen-bonding interactions between centrosymmetrically related molecules form stacks extending down b, and these are linked across c by carboxyl-amide O-HO hydrogen bonds, giving two-dimensional layered structures which lie in the (011) plane. The structures reported here represent examples of compounds analogous to the phthalimides or phthalanilic acids and have little precedence in the crystallographic literature.

Managing open incremental process innovation : absorptive capacity and distributed learning

In this conceptual article, we extend earlier work on Open Innovation and Absorptive Capacity. We suggest that the literature on Absorptive Capacity does not place sufficient emphasis on distributed knowledge and learning or on the application of innovative knowledge. To accomplish physical transformations, organisations need specific Innovative Capacities that extend beyond knowledge management. Accessive Capacity is the ability to collect, sort and analyse knowledge from both internal and external sources. Adaptive Capacity is needed to ensure that new pieces of equipment are suitable for the organisation's own purposes even though they may have been originally developed for other uses. Integrative Capacity makes it possible for a new or modified piece of equipment to be fitted into an existing production process with a minimum of inessential and expensive adjustment elsewhere in the process. These Innovative Capacities are controlled and coordinated by Innovative Management Capacity, a higher-order dynamic capability.

Viruses of banana in East Africa

Bananas are one of the world's most important food crops, providing sustenance and income for millions of people in developing countries and supporting large export industries. Viruses are considered major constraints to banana production, germplasm multiplication and exchange, and to genetic improvement of banana through traditional breeding. In Africa, the two most important virus diseases are bunchy top, caused by Banana bunchy top virus (BBTV), and banana streak disease, caused by Banana streak virus (BSV). BBTV is a serious production constraint in a number of countries within/bordering East Africa, such as Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Malawi, Mozambique, Rwanda and Zambia, but is not present in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. Additionally, epidemics of banana streak disease are occurring in Kenya and Uganda. The rapidly growing tissue culture (TC) industry within East Africa, aiming to provide planting material to banana farmers, has stimulated discussion about the need for virus indexing to certify planting material as virus-free. Diagnostic methods for BBTV and BSV have been reported and, for BBTV, PCR-based assays are reliable and relatively straightforward. However for BSV, high levels of serological and genetic variability and the presence of endogenous virus sequences within the banana genome complicate diagnosis. Uganda has been shown to contain the greatest diversity in BSV isolates found anywhere in the world. A broad-spectrum diagnostic test for BSV detection, which can discriminate between endogenous and episomal BSV sequences, is a priority. This PhD project aimed to establish diagnostic methods for banana viruses, with a particular focus on the development of novel methods for BSV detection, and to use these diagnostic methods for the detection and characterisation of banana viruses in East Africa. A novel rolling-circle amplification (RCA) method was developed for the detection of BSV. Using samples of Banana streak MY virus (BSMYV) and Banana streak OL virus (BSOLV) from Australia, this method was shown to distinguish between endogenous and episomal BSV sequences in banana plants. The RCA assay was used to screen a collection of 56 banana samples from south-west Uganda for BSV. RCA detected at least five distinct BSV isolates in these samples, including BSOLV and Banana streak GF virus (BSGFV) as well as three BSV isolates (Banana streak Uganda-I, -L and -M virus) for which only partial sequences had been previously reported. These latter three BSV had only been detected using immuno-capture (IC)-PCR and thus were possible endogenous sequences. In addition to its ability to detect BSV, the RCA protocol was also demonstrated to detect other viruses within the family Caulimoviridae, including Sugar cane bacilliform virus, and Cauliflower mosaic virus. Using the novel RCA method, three distinct BSV isolates from both Kenya and Uganda were identified and characterised. The complete genome of these isolates was sequenced and annotated. All six isolates were shown to have a characteristic badnavirus genome organisation with three open reading frames (ORFs) and the large polyprotein encoded by ORF 3 was shown to contain conserved amino acid motifs for movement, aspartic protease, reverse transcriptase and ribonuclease H activities. As well, several sequences important for expression and replication of the virus genome were identified including the conserved tRNAmet primer binding site present in the intergenic region of all badnaviruses. Based on the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV) guidelines for species demarcation in the genus Badnavirus, these six isolates were proposed as distinct species, and named Banana streak UA virus (BSUAV), Banana streak UI virus (BSUIV), Banana streak UL virus (BSULV), Banana streak UM virus (BSUMV), Banana streak CA virus (BSCAV) and Banana streak IM virus (BSIMV). Using PCR with species-specific primers designed to each isolate, a genotypically diverse collection of 12 virus-free banana cultivars were tested for the presence of endogenous sequences. For five of the BSV no amplification was observed in any cultivar tested, while for BSIMV, four positive samples were identified in cultivars with a B-genome component. During field visits to Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda, 143 samples were collected and assayed for BSV. PCR using nine sets of species-specific primers, and RCA, were compared for BSV detection. For five BSV species with no known endogenous counterpart (namely BSCAV, BSUAV, BSUIV, BSULV and BSUMV), PCR was used to detect 30 infections from the 143 samples. Using RCA, 96.4% of these samples were considered positive, with one additional sample detected using RCA which was not positive using PCR. For these five BSV, PCR and RCA were both useful for identifying infected samples, irrespective of the host cultivar genotype (Musa A- or B-genome components). For four additional BSV with known endogenous counterparts in the M. balbisiana genome (BSOLV, BSGFV, BSMYV and BSIMV), PCR was shown to detect 75 infections from the 143 samples. In 30 samples from cultivars with an A-only genome component there was 96.3% agreement between PCR positive samples and detection using RCA, again demonstrating either PCR or RCA are suitable methods for detection. However, in 45 samples from cultivars with some B-genome component, the level of agreement between PCR positive samples and RCA positive samples was 70.5%. This suggests that, in cultivars with some B-genome component, many infections were detected using PCR which were the result of amplification of endogenous sequences. In these latter cases, RCA or another method which discriminates between endogenous and episomal sequences, such as immuno-capture PCR, is needed to diagnose episomal BSV infection. Field visits were made to Malawi and Rwanda to collect local isolates of BBTV for validation of a PCR-based diagnostic assay. The presence of BBTV in samples of bananas with bunchy top disease was confirmed in 28 out of 39 samples from Malawi and all nine samples collected in Rwanda, using PCR and RCA. For three isolates, one from Malawi and two from Rwanda, the complete nucleotide sequences were determined and shown to have a similar genome organisation to previously published BBTV isolates. The two isolates from Rwanda had at least 98.1% nucleotide sequence identity between each of the six DNA components, while the similarity between isolates from Rwanda and Malawi was between 96.2% and 99.4% depending on the DNA component. At the amino acid level, similarities in the putative proteins encoded by DNA-R, -S, -M, - C and -N were found to range between 98.8% to 100%. In a phylogenetic analysis, the three East African isolates clustered together within the South Pacific subgroup of BBTV isolates. Nucleotide sequence comparison to isolates of BBTV from outside Africa identified India as the possible origin of East African isolates of BBTV.

System identification, estimation and control for a cost effective open-source quadcopter

This paper describes system identification, estimation and control of translational motion and heading angle for a cost effective open-source quadcopter — the MikroKopter. The dynamics of its built-in sensors, roll and pitch attitude controller, and system latencies are determined and used to design a computationally inexpensive multi-rate velocity estimator that fuses data from the built-in inertial sensors and a low-rate onboard laser range finder. Control is performed using a nested loop structure that is also computationally inexpensive and incorporates different sensors. Experimental results for the estimator and closed-loop positioning are presented and compared with ground truth from a motion capture system.