Cohort effects within firms, and their implications for labour market outcomes and the business cycle

The project aims to achieve two objectives. First, we are analysing the labour market implications of the assumption that firms cannot pay similarly qualified employees differently according to when they joined the firm. For example, if the general situation for workers improves, a firm that seeks to hire new workers may feel it has to pay more to new hires. However, if the firm must pay the same wage to new hires and incumbents due to equal treatment, it would either have to raise the wage of the incumbents, or offer new workers a lower wage than the firm would do otherwise. This is very different from the standard assumption in economic analysis that firms are free to treat newly hired workers independently of existing hires. Second, we will use detailed data on individual wages to try to gauge whether (and to what extent) equity is a feature of actual labour markets. To investigate this, we are using two matched employer-employee panel datasets, one from Portugal and the other from Brazil. These unique datasets provide objective records on millions of workers and their firms over a long period of time, so that we can identify which firms employ which workers at each time. The datasets also include a large number of firm and worker variables.

Transanal endoscopic microsurgery resection of rectal tumors: outcomes and recommendations.

PURPOSE: Transanal endoscopic microsurgery provides a minimally invasive alternative to radical surgery for excision of benign and malignant rectal tumors. The purpose of this study was to review our experience with transanal endoscopic microsurgery to clarify its role in the treatment of different types of rectal pathology. METHODS: A prospective database documented all patients undergoing transanal endoscopic microsurgery from October 1996 through June 2008. We analyzed patient and operative factors, complications, and tumor recurrence. For recurrence analysis, we excluded patients with fewer than 6 months of follow-up, previous excisions, known metastases at initial presentation, and those who underwent immediate radical resection following transanal endoscopic microsurgery. RESULTS: Two hundred sixty-nine patients underwent transanal endoscopic microsurgery for benign (n = 158) and malignant (n = 111) tumors. Procedure-related complications (21%) included urinary retention (10.8%), fecal incontinence (4.1%), fever (3.8%), suture line dehiscence (1.5%), and bleeding (1.5%). Local recurrence rates for 121 benign and 83 malignant tumors were 5% for adenomas, 9.8% for T1 adenocarcinoma, 23.5% for T2 adenocarcinoma, 100% for T3 adenocarcinoma, and 0% for carcinoid tumors. All 6 (100%) recurrent adenomas were retreated with endoscopic techniques, and 8 of 17 (47%) recurrent adenocarcinomas underwent salvage procedures with curative intent. CONCLUSIONS: Transanal endoscopic microsurgery is a safe and effective method for excision of benign and malignant rectal tumors. Transanal endoscopic microsurgery can be offered for (1) curative resection of benign tumors, carcinoid tumors, and select T1 adenocarcinomas, (2) histopathologic staging in indeterminate cases, and (3) palliative resection in patients medically unfit or unwilling to undergo radical resection.

Out of sight, out of mind? Educational outcomes of children with parents working abroad.

Impact of parental emigration on educational outcomes of children is theoretically ambiguous. Using novel data I collected on migration experience and its timing, family background and school performance of lower secondary pupils in Poland, I analyse the question empirically. Migration is mostly temporary in nature, with one parent engaging in employment abroad. As many as 63% of migrant parents have vocational qualifications, 29% graduated from high school, 4% have no qualifications and the remaining 4% graduated from university. Almost 18% of children are affected by parental migration. Perhaps surprisingly, estimates suggest that parental employment abroad has a positive immediate impact on a pupil’s grade. Parental education appears pivotal; children of high school graduates benefit most. Longer term effects appear more negative, however, suggesting that a prolonged migration significantly lowers a child’s grade. Interestingly, siblings’ foreign experiences exert a large, positive impact on pupils’ grades.

Impact of genetic polymorphisms in cytomegalovirus glycoprotein B on outcomes in solid-organ transplant recipients with cytomegalovirus disease.

BACKGROUND:It is unknown whether specific viral polymorphisms affect in vivo therapeutic response in patients with cytomegalovirus (CMV) disease. Polymorphisms in the CMV glycoprotein B (gB) gene allow discrimination of 4 distinct genotypes (gB1-gB4). We assessed the influence of gB genotypes on the clinical and virologic outcome of CMV disease. METHODS:Solid-organ transplant recipients enrolled in a multicenter trial of CMV disease treatment (VICTOR study) were included in this study. CMV gB genotyping was performed using quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction at day 0 (start of antiviral therapy). RESULTS:Among 239 patients with CMV disease, the prevalence of gB strain types was 26% for gB1, 10% for gB2, 10% for gB3, and 5% for gB4, whereas mixed infections were present in 49%. Donor-seropositive/recipient-seropositive patients were more likely to have mixed gB infection than donor-seropositive/recipient-seronegative patients (40% vs. 12%; P = .001). Median baseline viral loads were higher and time to viral eradication was longer ( P = .006 and P = .026 , respectively) for mixed infection versus infection with a single genotype. In a multivariate model, mixed gB infection was a significant predictor of failure to eradicate virus by day 21 (mixed vs single genotype; odds ratio, 2.66; 95% confidence interval, 1.31-5.38; P = .007 ) after controlling for baseline viral load, CMV serostatus at baseline, ganciclovir resistance, and antiviral treatment. No effect of gB genotype was seen on virologic or clinical CMV recurrence. CONCLUSIONS:No specific gB genotype appears to confer a specific CMV virulence advantage. However, mixed gB genotype infections are associated with higher viral loads and delayed viral clearance.

Health care supply, payment system and medical practice : evidence from obstetric practice

ABSTRACTA significant share of deliveries are performed by Cesarian section (C-section) in Europe and in many developed and developing countries. The aims of this thesis are to highlight the non medical, especially economic and financial, incentives that explain the use of C-section, as well as the medical consequences of C-section on women's health, in regard with other factors of ob¬stetrical care quality such as hospital concentration. Those diagnoses enable us to exhibit ways of improvement of obstetrical care quality in France. Our analysis focus on two countries, France and Switzerland. In the first part of the thesis, we show the influence of two non medical factors on the C-section use, namely the hospital payment system on the one hand and the obstetricians behaviour, especially their demand for leisure, on the other hand. With French data on the year 2003, we show firstly that the fee-for-service payment system of private for profit hospitals induces a higher probability of using C-section. Obstetricians play also a preeminent role in the decision to use a C-section, as the probability of a C-section rises with the number of obstetricians. We then focus on a French reform introduced in 2004, to investigate the impact of Prospective Payment System on obstetric practise. We show that the rise of C-section rate between 2003 and 2006 is mainly caused by changes in hospitals and patients features. Obstetricians practises do not vary a lot for patients with the same risk code. In the mean time however, the number of women coded with a high risk rises. This can be caused by improvements in the quality of coding, obstetricians chosing codes that match better the real health state of their patients. Yet, it can also show that obstetricians change their coding practises to justify the use of certain practises, such as C-section, with no regard to the health state of patients. Financial factors are not the only non medical fac¬tors that can influence the resort to C-section. Using Shelton Brown ΠΙ identification strategy, we focus on the potential impact of obstetricians leisure preference on the use of C-section. We use the distributions of days and hours of delivering and the types of C-section - planned or emergency C-sections - to show that the obstetricians demand for leisure has a significant impact on the resort to C-section, but only in emergency situations. The second part of the thesis deals with some ways to improve obstetric care quality. We use on the one hand swiss and french data to study the impact of C-section on the patients' probability of having an obstetric complication and on the other hand the influence of hospital concentration on the quality of obstetric care. We find the same results as former medical studies about the risks entailed by C-section on obstetric complications.These results prove women ought to be better informed of the medical consequences of C-section and that the slowing of C-section use should be a priority of public health policy. We finally focus on another way to improve obstetric care quality, that is hospital lmarket concentration. We investigate the impact of hospital concentration by integrating the Herfindahl-Hirschman index in our model, on health care quality, measured by the HCUP indicator. We find that hospital concentration has a negative impact on obstetric care quality, which undermines today's policy of hospital closings in France.JEL classification: 112; 118Keywords: Hospital; C-section; Payment System; Counterfactual Estimation; Quality of Care.RÉSUMÉUne part importante des accouchements sont réalisés par césarienne en Europe et dans de nom¬breux pays développés ou en développement. Les objectifs de cette thèse sont de mettre en évidence les déterminants non médicaux, notamment économiques et financiers, expliquant le développe¬ment de cette pratique, ainsi que ses conséquences sur la santé des femmes après Γ accouchement, en lien avec d'autres facteurs comme la concentration locale des structures hospitalières. Les résul¬tats exposés dans cette thèse éclairent les perspectives et voies d'amélioration de la qualité des soins en obstétriques.Notre analyse se concentre sur deux pays : la France et la Suisse. Dans la première partie de la thèse, nous mettons en évidence l'influence de deux déterminants non médicaux sur l'emploi de la césarienne : le système de paiement des hôpitaux d'une part, et le comportement des médecins obstétriciens d'autre part. En étudiant des données françaises de 2003, nous montrons d'abord que le financement à l'acte des établissements privés engendre une hausse de la proba¬bilité de pratiquer une césarienne. Le rôle de l'obstrétricien paraît également déterminant dans la décision d'opérer une césarienne, la probabilité d'employer cette technique augmentant avec le nombre d'obstétriciens. Nous nous intéressons ensuite à l'impact de la mise en place en 2004 du système de paiement prospectif sur l'évolution des pratiques obstétricales entre 2003 et 2006 en France. La hausse du taux de recours à la césarienne entre 2004 et 2006 peut ainsi être principa¬lement imputée aux évolutions des caractéristiques des hôpitaux et des patients, les pratiques des obstétriciens, pour un même codage de la situation du patient, variant peu. Dans le même temps cependant, les pratiques de codage des patients parles obstétriciens évoluent fortement, les femmes étant de plus en plus nombreuses à porter des codes correspondant à des situations à risques. Cette évolution peut indiquer que la qualité du codage en 2006 s'est améliorée par rapport à 2004, le codage correspondant de plus en plus à la situation réelle des patientes. H peut aussi indiquer que les pratiques de codage évoluent pour justifier un recours accru à la césarienne, sans lien avec l'état réel des patientes. Les facteurs financiers ne sont pas les seuls facteurs non médicaux à pouvoir expliquer le recours à la césarienne : nous nous intéressons, en suivant la stratégie d'identifica¬tion de Shelton Brown m, à l'impact potentiel de la demande de loisir des médecins obstétriciens sur la pratique de la césarienne. En utilisant la distribution des jours et heures d'accouchement, et en distinguant les césariennes planifiées de celles effectuées en urgence, nous constatons que la demande de loisir des obstétriciens influence significativement le recours à la césarienne, mais uni¬quement pour les interventions d'urgence. La deuxième partie de la thèse est consacrée à l'étude de la qualité des soins en obstétriques. Nous utilisons des données suisses et françaises pour analyser d'une part l'impact de la césarienne sur la survenue de complications obstétricales et d'autre part l'impact de la concentration des soins sur la qualité des soins en obstétrique. Nons confirmons les résultats antérieurs de la littérature médicale sur la dangerosité de la césarienne comme facteur de complications obstétricales. Ces conclusions montrent que les femmes ont besoin d'être informées des conséquences de la césarienne sur leur santé et que le ralentissement de l'augmentation de la pratique de la césarienne devrait être un objectif de la politique publique de santé. Nous nous in¬téressons à un autre facteur d'amélioration des soins en obstrétique, l'organisation des hôpitaux et particulièrement leur concentration. Nous estimons ainsi l'effet de la concentration sur la qualité des soins obstétriques en intégrant l'indice de Herfindahl-Hirschman dans notre modèle, la qualité des soins étant mesurée à l'aide de l'indicateur HCUP. Nous constatons que la concentration des naissances a un impact négatif sur la qualité des soins en obstétrique, résultat qui va dans le sens contraire des politiques de fermeture d'hôpitaux menées actuellement en France. JEL classification : 112 ; 118Mots-clés : Hôpital ; Césarienne ; Système de paiement ; Contrefactuels ; Qualité des soins, sur la qualité des soins en obstétrique.

Clinical and biological determinants of kidney outcomes in a population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Prospective studies on factors associated with adverse kidney outcomes in European general populations are scant. Also, few studies consider the potential confounding effect of baseline kidney function. METHODS: We used baseline (2003-2006) and 5-year follow-up data of adults from the general population to evaluate the effect of baseline kidney function and proteinuria on the association of clinical, biological (e.g. uric acid, homocysteine, cytokines), and socioeconomic factors with change in kidney function, rapid decline in kidney function, and incidence of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urinary albuminuria-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) were collected. Kidney outcomes were modeled using multivariable regressions. RESULTS: A total of 4,441 subjects were included in the analysis. Among participants without CKD at baseline, 11.4% presented rapid decline in eGFR and/or incident CKD. After adjustment for baseline eGFR and log UACR, only age (Odds Ratio; 1.25 [95%CI 1.18-1.33]), diabetes (OR 1.48 [1.03-2.13]), education (OR middle vs. high 1.51 [1.08-2.11]) and log ultrasensitive CRP (OR 1.16 [1.05-1.22]) were associated with rapid decline in eGFR or incident CKD. Baseline log UACR (OR 1.18 [1.06-1.32]) but not eGFR was associated with rapid decline in eGFR and/or incident CKD. CONCLUSION: In addition to age and diabetes, education and CRP levels are associated with adverse kidney outcomes independently of baseline kidney function.

Outcomes and reoperations after total correction of complete atrio-ventricular septal defect

BACKGROUND: Surgical correction of complete atrio-ventricular septal defect (AVSD) achieves satisfactory results with low morbidity and mortality, but may require reoperation. Our recent operative results at mid-term were followed-up. METHODS: From June 2000 to December 2007, 81 patients (Down syndrome; n=60), median age 4.0 months (range 0.7-118.6) and weight 4.7kg (range 2.2-33), underwent complete AVSD correction. Patch closure for the ventricular septal defect (VSD; n=69) and atrial septal defect (ASD; n=42) was performed with left atrio-ventricular valve (LAVV) cleft closure (n=76) and right atrio-ventricular valve (RAVV) repair (n=57). Mortality, morbidity, and indications for reoperation were retrospectively studied; the end point 'time to reoperation' was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier curves. Follow-up was complete except in two patients and spanned a median of 28 months (range 0.4-6.1 years). RESULTS: In-hospital mortality was 3.7% (n=3) and one late death occurred. Reoperation was required in 7/79 patients (8.9%) for LAVV insufficiency (n=4), for a residual ASD (n=1), for right atrio-ventricular valve insufficiency (n=1), and for subaortic stenosis (n=1). At last follow-up, no or only mild LAVV and RAVV insufficiency was present in 81.3% and 92.1% of patients, respectively, and 2/3 of patients were medication-free. Risk factors for reoperation were younger age (<3 months; p=0.001) and lower weight (<4kg; p=0.003), and a trend towards less and later reoperations in Down syndrome (p<0.2). CONCLUSIONS: Surgical correction of AVSD can be achieved with low mortality and need for reoperation, regardless of Down syndrome or not. Immediate postoperative moderate or more residual atrio-ventricular valve insufficiency will eventually require a reoperation, and could be anticipated in patients younger than 3 months and weighing <4kg.

Self-perceived health status and mental health outcomes in young adults born with less than 1000 g.

AIM: To assess self-perceived health status and mental health outcomes of former extremely low-birth-weight (ELBW) infants at young adulthood compared with community norms and to analyse predictors of poor outcome. METHODS: Fifty-five ELBW adults, 18 men (33%), with median (range) gestational age of 28.7 (25.0-34.0) weeks and birth weight of 930 (680-990) grams, born in Switzerland, were included. They self-rated their health status and mental health at a mean (range) age of 23.3 (21.8-25.9) years. Health status was measured by the Medical Outcomes Study Short Form-36 questionnaire and mental health by the Brief Symptom Inventory. RESULTS: The mean scores for both outcome measures were in the normal range. However, the study group self-rated significantly higher physical health status and lower mental health status compared with the community norms, and scores for self-perceived mental health tended to be worse in the former. ELBW adults reported more problems in socio-emotional role functioning compared with the community norms. Female sex was associated with poorer and bronchopulmonary dysplasia with better mental health status. CONCLUSION: Health status and mental health of former ELBW adults were overall satisfying. However, the comparison with the community norms revealed differences, which may be important for parental and patient counselling and developing support strategies.

3D visualization software to analyze topological outcomes of topoisomerase reactions.

The action of various DNA topoisomerases frequently results in characteristic changes in DNA topology. Important information for understanding mechanistic details of action of these topoisomerases can be provided by investigating the knot types resulting from topoisomerase action on circular DNA forming a particular knot type. Depending on the topological bias of a given topoisomerase reaction, one observes different subsets of knotted products. To establish the character of topological bias, one needs to be aware of all possible topological outcomes of intersegmental passages occurring within a given knot type. However, it is not trivial to systematically enumerate topological outcomes of strand passage from a given knot type. We present here a 3D visualization software (TopoICE-X in KnotPlot) that incorporates topological analysis methods in order to visualize, for example, knots that can be obtained from a given knot by one intersegmental passage. The software has several other options for the topological analysis of mechanisms of action of various topoisomerases.

Predicting community and ecosystem outcomes of mycorrhizal responses to global change.

Mycorrhizal symbioses link the biosphere with the lithosphere by mediating nutrient cycles and energy flow though terrestrial ecosystems. A more mechanistic understanding of these plant-fungal associations may help ameliorate anthropogenic changes to C and N cycles and biotic communities. We explore three interacting principles: (1) optimal allocation, (2) biotic context and (3) fungal adaptability that may help predict mycorrhizal responses to carbon dioxide enrichment, nitrogen eutrophication, invasive species and land-use changes. Plant-microbial feedbacks and thresholds are discussed in light of these principles with the goal of generating testable hypotheses. Ideas to develop large-scale collaborative research efforts are presented. It is our hope that mycorrhizal symbioses can be effectively integrated into global change models and eventually their ecology will be understood well enough so that they can be managed to help offset some of the detrimental effects of anthropogenic environmental change.

Tuberculosis in HIV-negative and HIV-infected patients in a low-incidence country: clinical characteristics and treatment outcomes.

BACKGROUND: In Switzerland and other developed countries, the number of tuberculosis (TB) cases has been decreasing for decades, but HIV-infected patients and migrants remain risk groups. The aim of this study was to compare characteristics of TB in HIV-negative and HIV-infected patients diagnosed in Switzerland, and between coinfected patients enrolled and not enrolled in the national Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). METHODS AND FINDINGS: All patients diagnosed with culture-confirmed TB in the SHCS and a random sample of culture-confirmed cases reported to the national TB registry 2000-2008 were included. Outcomes were assessed in HIV-infected patients and considered successful in case of cure or treatment completion. Ninety-three SHCS patients and 288 patients selected randomly from 4221 registered patients were analyzed. The registry sample included 10 (3.5%) coinfected patients not enrolled in the SHCS: the estimated number of HIV-infected patients not enrolled in the SHCS but reported to the registry 2000-2008 was 146 (95% CI 122-173). Coinfected patients were more likely to be from sub-Saharan Africa (51.5% versus 15.8%, P<0.0001) and to present disseminated disease (23.9% vs. 3.4%, P<0.0001) than HIV-negative patients. Coinfected patients not enrolled in the SHCS were asylum seekers or migrant workers, with lower CD4 cell counts at TB diagnosis (median CD4 count 79 cells/µL compared to 149 cells/µL among SHCS patients, P = 0.07). There were 6 patients (60.0%) with successful outcomes compared to 82 (88.2%) patients in the SHCS (P = 0.023). CONCLUSIONS: The clinical presentation of coinfected patients differed from HIV-negative TB patients. The number of HIV-infected patients diagnosed with TB outside the SHCS is similar to the number diagnosed within the cohort but outcomes are poorer in patients not followed up in the national cohort. Special efforts are required to address the needs of this vulnerable population.

The de facto independence of regulatory agencies and its consequences for policy making and regulatory outcomes

This dissertation focuses on the practice of regulatory governance, throughout the study of the functioning of formally independent regulatory agencies (IRAs), with special attention to their de facto independence. The research goals are grounded on a "neo-positivist" (or "reconstructed positivist") position (Hawkesworth 1992; Radaelli 2000b; Sabatier 2000). This perspective starts from the ontological assumption that even if subjective perceptions are constitutive elements of political phenomena, a real world exists beyond any social construction and can, however imperfectly, become the object of scientific inquiry. Epistemologically, it follows that hypothetical-deductive theories with explanatory aims can be tested by employing a proper methodology and set of analytical techniques. It is thus possible to make scientific inferences and general conclusions to a certain extent, according to a Bayesian conception of knowledge, in order to update the prior scientific beliefs in the truth of the related hypotheses (Howson 1998), while acknowledging the fact that the conditions of truth are at least partially subjective and historically determined (Foucault 1988; Kuhn 1970). At the same time, a sceptical position is adopted towards the supposed disjunction between facts and values and the possibility of discovering abstract universal laws in social science. It has been observed that the current version of capitalism corresponds to the golden age of regulation, and that since the 1980s no government activity in OECD countries has grown faster than regulatory functions (Jacobs 1999). Following an apparent paradox, the ongoing dynamics of liberalisation, privatisation, decartelisation, internationalisation, and regional integration hardly led to the crumbling of the state, but instead promoted a wave of regulatory growth in the face of new risks and new opportunities (Vogel 1996). Accordingly, a new order of regulatory capitalism is rising, implying a new division of labour between state and society and entailing the expansion and intensification of regulation (Levi-Faur 2005). The previous order, relying on public ownership and public intervention and/or on sectoral self-regulation by private actors, is being replaced by a more formalised, expert-based, open, and independently regulated model of governance. Independent regulation agencies (IRAs), that is, formally independent administrative agencies with regulatory powers that benefit from public authority delegated from political decision makers, represent the main institutional feature of regulatory governance (Gilardi 2008). IRAs constitute a relatively new technology of regulation in western Europe, at least for certain domains, but they are increasingly widespread across countries and sectors. For instance, independent regulators have been set up for regulating very diverse issues, such as general competition, banking and finance, telecommunications, civil aviation, railway services, food safety, the pharmaceutical industry, electricity, environmental protection, and personal data privacy. Two attributes of IRAs deserve a special mention. On the one hand, they are formally separated from democratic institutions and elected politicians, thus raising normative and empirical concerns about their accountability and legitimacy. On the other hand, some hard questions about their role as political actors are still unaddressed, though, together with regulatory competencies, IRAs often accumulate executive, (quasi-)legislative, and adjudicatory functions, as well as about their performance.

Reinfection in American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis: Evaluation of Clinical Outcomes in the Hamster Model

There is no clear understanding of the outcome of reinfection in New World cutaneous leishmaniasis, and its role in the relationship to the development of protection or secondary disease. For this reason, reinfection experiments with homologous (Leishmania panamensis-L. panamensis) and heterologous (L. major-L. panamensis) species of leishmaniae were conducted in the hamster model. The different protocols for primary infections prior to the challenge with L. panamensis were as follows: (a) L. major, single promastigote injection, (b) L. major, three booster infections, (c) L. panamensis, followed by antimonial treatment to achieve subclinical infection, (d) L. panamensis, with active lesions, (e) sham infected, naive controls. Although all reinfected hamsters developed lesions upon challenge, animals with active primary lesions due to L. panamensis, and receiving booster infections of L. major had the most benign secondary lesions (58-91% and 69-76% smaller than controls, respectively, P<0.05). Subclinically infected animals had intermediate lesions (40-64% smaller than controls, P<0.05), while hamsters which received a single dose of L. major had no significant improvement over controls. Our results suggested that L. major could elicit a cross protective response to L. panamensis, and that the presence and number of amastigotes persisting after a primary infection may influence the clinical outcome of reinfections.

Same wording, distinct concepts? Testing differences between expectancies and motives in a mediation model of alcohol outcomes.

Per definition, alcohol expectancies (after alcohol I expect X), and drinking motives (I drink to achieve X) are conceptually distinct constructs. Theorists have argued that motives mediate the association between expectancies and drinking outcomes. Yet, given the use of different instruments, do these constructs remain distinct when assessment items are matched? The present study tested to what extent motives mediated the link between expectancies and alcohol outcomes when identical items were used, first as expectancies and then as motives. A linear structural equation model was estimated based on a national representative sample of 5,779 alcohol-using students in Switzerland (mean age = 15.2 years). The results showed that expectancies explained up to 38% of the variance in motives. Together with motives, they explained up to 48% of the variance in alcohol outcomes (volume, 5+ drinking, and problems). In 10 of 12 outcomes, there was a significant mediated effect that was often higher than the direct expectancy effect. For coping, the expectancy effect was close to zero, indicating the strongest form of mediation. In only one case (conformity and 5+ drinking), there was a direct expectancy effect but no mediation. To conclude, the study demonstrates that motives are distinct from expectancies even when identical items are used. Motives are more proximally related to different alcohol outcomes, often mediating the effects of expectancies. Consequently, the effectiveness of interventions, particularly those aimed at coping drinkers, should be improved through a shift in focus from expectancies to drinking motives.