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Nuestra preocupación reside en estudiar empíricamente el mecanismo de transmisión internacional de ciclos económicos a economías pequeñas y menos desarrolladas (LDC), evaluando el impacto de los shocks en los términos de intercambio en países dónde existen imperfecciones en el mercado crediticio que imponen severas restricciones en el financiamiento de la inversión doméstica y al crecimiento económico. Primero, analizamos si la cuenta corriente responde de manera asimétrica a movimientos de largo plazo en los términos de intercambio. La hipótesis es que “en los buenos tiempos” cuando se produce una mejora permanente en términos de intercambio (y con ello el nivel de ingreso) los individuos no elevan su consumo en un monto acorde con la mejora de su ingreso (permanente) sino que ahorran una fracción del aumento en su dotación para hacer frente a una reversión en la mejora en los términos de intercambios (aunque ésta sea transitoria) en el futuro. En consecuencia, la cuenta corriente (diferencia entre ingreso y absorción) responde de manera positiva a un shock permanente en los términos de intercambio, ya que el individuo ahorra de manera cautelosa –debido a que sabe que no le prestarán para suavizar consumo - aún suponiendo que en el futuro tendrá una reversión transitoria de su ingreso. Segundo, estudiamos la relación dinámica entre los términos de intercambio y la tasa de interés en la economía pequeña abierta y con imperfecciones en el mercado crediticio (información asimétrica). La hipótesis es que la economía doméstica tiene que soportar una prima de riesgo que eleva el costo de la inversión y retarda el crecimiento (Gertler y Rogoff; 1990). Esta prima de riesgo depende, además, en forma negativa del nivel del colateral que tenga la economía. El colateral es la dotación de recursos naturales, por ejemplo, que la economía posee a los fines garantizar el cumplimiento de las obligaciones contraídas (en el modelo presentado las actividades dónde se invierten son independientes del colateral). La hipótesis establecida indica que los cambios en los términos de intercambio generan un aumento del colateral de la economía y una reducción del riesgo país: aumentos en los términos de intercambio reducen la prima de riesgo de la economía que opera en mercados de capitales con asimetrías de información, y como consecuencia aumentarían los ingresos de capitales. De esta forma, se estaría encontrando una explicación a la denominada “Paradoja de Lucas”. Finalmente, el proyecto estudia la conexión entre dos variables “clave” en la economía de los países emergentes: la relación entre los términos de intercambio y el tipo de cambio real. Argumentamos que los efectos de las mejoras de los términos de intercambio sobre los flujos de capitales externos tienden a ser sobreestimadas si no se consideran los efectos “secundarios” de éstas sobre el tipo de cambio real de la economía pequeña menos desarrollada. En este proyecto se controlan estadísticamente esta relación. La estrategia empírica elegida resulta en aplicar a un panel (constituido por dieciocho países de Latinoamérica) el método generalizado de momentos (GMM) a dos modelos de regresión estadística a los fines de abordar de manera eficiente el problema de la endogeneidad de la variable dependiente que actúa como regresor rezagado. La estrategia de estimación elegida enfatiza el análisis de la relación dinámica de las variables económicas incluidas en el análisis. The paper analyzes the general problem related to the transmission of economic cycles to Small Open Economies. The analysis focuses on terms-of-trade shocks, which are considered one of the major sources of income volatility in developing economies. Specifically, we tackle the problem related to the impact of terms-of-trade shocks in Less Developed SOEs. ‘Less Developed SOEs’ are understood as those countries who have borrowing constraints. First, we put to a test the hypothesis of asymmetric response of current account to terms-of-trade shocks (the impact of the shock on current account differs depending whether it is positive or negative), which originates from considering binding restrictions in international capital markets (Agénor and Aizenman; 2004). Second, we investigate about the main determinants of External Capital Flows (ECF) directed to Developing Countries. We put to a test the Gertler and Rogoff (1990) hypothesis that a “risky rate” arises in that markets because the economy has not sufficient amount of wealth to “collateralize” the capital she needs to borrow to take advantage of the investment opportunities she has and additionally because the lender does not have the chance of observing what the borrowed does with the funds (that is information asymmetry arises because the lender can check the realized output of investment but he can not observe if he really invest in the project or secretly lend abroad). Finally, Following Prasad, E. S., Rajan and R. Subramanian, A (2007) we measure the relationship between external capital flows and domestic currency overvaluation. We run a panel GMM estimation for a set of 18 Latin American Countries during the period 1973-2008.

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This thesis describes a search for very high energy (VHE) gamma-ray emission from the starburst galaxy IC 342. The analysis was based on data from the 2003 — 2004 observing season recorded using the Whipple 10-metre imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescope located on Mount Hopkins in southern Arizona. IC 342 may be classed as a non-blazar type galaxy and to date only a few such galaxies (M 87, Cen A, M 82 and NGC 253) have been detected as VHE gamma-ray sources. Analysis of approximately 24 hours of good quality IC 342 data, consisting entirely of ON/OFF observations, was carried out using a number of methods (standard Supercuts, optimised Supercuts, scaled optimised Supercuts and the multivariate kernel analysis technique). No evidence for TeV gamma-ray emission from IC 342 was found. The significance was 0.6 a with a nominal rate of 0.04 ± 0.06 gamma rays per minute. The flux upper limit above 600 GeV (at 99.9 % confidence) was determined to be 5.5 x 10-8 m-2 s-1, corresponding to 8 % of the Crab Nebula flux in the same energy range.

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The present study compares the metanotal gland through scanning electron microscopy in five species of Eidmanacris: E. corumbatai Garcia, 1998, E. alboannulata (Piza, 1960), E. dissimilis Desutter-Grandcolas, 1995, E. larvaeformis (Chopard, 1938) and Eidmanacris sp. The general external configuration of the gland was determined by the presence of two median projections with apical opening and a cluster of bristles just above these projections. Although there is a general pattern for this gland, each species has its own pattern, which can be defined mainly by the arrangement of the bristles and the position of the median projections. Our results suggest the taxonomical importance of these structures, which should be better analyzed when describing species of the genus Eidmanacris. In addition, while observing the reproductive behavior of these species, we concluded that the release of this gland secretion is important for the success of mating.

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Synchronization in the events of the reproductive cycle in female Neohelice granulata Dana, 1851 were studied from samples taken weekly and biweekly from September to December 2006 in the Laguna Mar Chiquita. The timing and larval hatching and synchronicity were inferred from numbers of ovigerous females and observing the stages of embryonic development. Synchronization in larval hatching also was observed in females in experiments in dark for a period of 48 hours, at three different salinities (10, 23 and 33 ppm). In addition plankton sampling were performed in order to study larval exportation at the field and its link to the tidal and light/dark cycles. We found that ovigerous females of N. granulata have a marked synchronization in embryonic development which results in that most of berried females are close to hatching within a period of maximum tidal range (days). Within this period, there is a synchronization of hatching at a time scale of hours, governed by environmental conditions. The salinity range used in this study (10-32‰) did not affect hatching synchronicity neither time to hatch. Hatching was synchronized according to endogenous rhythms governed mainly by the tidal cycle and secondarily by the breadth of it. It is also conditioned by the light-dark cycle through an exogenous cycle, so that the hatchings would occur mostly at night high tides.

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The objective of this work was to develop an easily applicable technique and a standardized protocol for high-quality post-mortem angiography. This protocol should (1) increase the radiological interpretation by decreasing artifacts due to the perfusion and by reaching a complete filling of the vascular system and (2) ease and standardize the execution of the examination. To this aim, 45 human corpses were investigated by post-mortem computed tomography (CT) angiography using different perfusion protocols, a modified heart-lung machine and a new contrast agent mixture, specifically developed for post-mortem investigations. The quality of the CT angiographies was evaluated radiologically by observing the filling of the vascular system and assessing the interpretability of the resulting images and by comparing radiological diagnoses to conventional autopsy conclusions. Post-mortem angiography yielded satisfactory results provided that the volumes of the injected contrast agent mixture were high enough to completely fill the vascular system. In order to avoid artifacts due to the post-mortem perfusion, a minimum of three angiographic phases and one native scan had to be performed. These findings were taken into account to develop a protocol for quality post-mortem CT angiography that minimizes the risk of radiological misinterpretation. The proposed protocol is easy applicable in a standardized way and yields high-quality radiologically interpretable visualization of the vascular system in post-mortem investigations.

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A one year-long study (March 1979-March 1980) was carried out at San Esteban, an endemic focus of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Northern Venezuela, with the aim of observing the seasonal fluctuation of the local phlebotomine sandflies species. The influence of climatic factors (temperature, relative humidity and rainfall) on population dynamics was analyzed in three collecting sites - a house, a peridomestic area and a sylvatic region. Among anthropophilic species, L. panamensis behaved as a wetseason species, the mean minimum relative humidity being the critical factor influencing the total number of individuals. When the population density of this fly decreased, it was successfully replaced by L. ovallesi, a dry-season species. On the other hand, seasonal variations of L. gomezi were more strongly affected by the temperature.

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In this paper we examine the out-of-sample forecast performance of high-yield credit spreads regarding real-time and revised data on employment and industrial production in the US. We evaluate models using both a point forecast and a probability forecast exercise. Our main findings suggest the use of few factors obtained by pooling information from a number of sector-specific high-yield credit spreads. This can be justified by observing that, especially for employment, there is a gain from using a principal components model fitted to high-yield credit spreads compared to the prediction produced by benchmarks, such as an AR, and ARDL models that use either the term spread or the aggregate high-yield spread as exogenous regressor. Moreover, forecasts based on real-time data are generally comparable to forecasts based on revised data. JEL Classification: C22; C53; E32 Keywords: Credit spreads; Principal components; Forecasting; Real-time data.

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The diagnosis of tick-borne diseases such as babesiosis still depends on observing the parasite in the infected erythrocyte. Microscopic observation is tedious and often problematic in both early and carrier infections. Better diagnostic methods are needed to prevent clinical disease, especially when susceptible cattle are being moved into disease enzootic areas. This study evaluates two techniques for early diagnosis of Babesia bovis infections in cattle, DNA probes specific for the organism and fluorescent probes specific nucleic acid. The radioisotopically labeled DNA probes are used in slot blot hybridizations whith lysed blood samples, not purified DNA. Thusfar, the probe is specific for B. bovis and can detect as few as 1000 B. bovis parasites in 10µl of blood. The specificity of the fluorescent probe depends on the characteristic morphology of the babesia in whole blood samples, as determined microscopically. The fluorescent probe detects as afew as 10,000 B. bovis parasites in 10*l as blood. The application of each method for alboratory and field use is discussed.

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What genotype should the scientist specify for conducting a database search to try to find the source of a low-template-DNA (lt-DNA) trace? When the scientist answers this question, he or she makes a decision. Here, we approach this decision problem from a normative point of view by defining a decision-theoretic framework for answering this question for one locus. This framework combines the probability distribution describing the uncertainty over the trace's donor's possible genotypes with a loss function describing the scientist's preferences concerning false exclusions and false inclusions that may result from the database search. According to this approach, the scientist should choose the genotype designation that minimizes the expected loss. To illustrate the results produced by this approach, we apply it to two hypothetical cases: (1) the case of observing one peak for allele xi on a single electropherogram, and (2) the case of observing one peak for allele xi on one replicate, and a pair of peaks for alleles xi and xj, i ≠ j, on a second replicate. Given that the probabilities of allele drop-out are defined as functions of the observed peak heights, the threshold values marking the turning points when the scientist should switch from one designation to another are derived in terms of the observed peak heights. For each case, sensitivity analyses show the impact of the model's parameters on these threshold values. The results support the conclusion that the procedure should not focus on a single threshold value for making this decision for all alleles, all loci and in all laboratories.

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RésuméCette thèse traite de l'utilisation des concepts de Symbiose Industrielle dans les pays en développement et étudie le potentiel de cette stratégie pour stimuler un développement régional durable dans les zones rurales d'Afrique de l'Ouest. En particulier, lorsqu'une Symbiose Industrielle est instaurée entre une usine et sa population alentour, des outils d'évaluation sont nécessaires pour garantir que le projet permette d'atteindre un réel développement durable. Les outils existants, développés dans les pays industrialisés, ne sont cependant pas complètement adaptés pour l'évaluation de projets dans les pays en développement. En effet, les outils sont porteurs d'hypothèses implicites propres au contexte socio-économique dans lequel ils ont été conçus.L'objectif de cette thèse est de développer un cadre méthodologique pour l'évaluation de la durabilité de projets de Symbiose Industrielle dans les pays en développement.Pour ce faire, je m'appuie sur une étude de cas de la mise en place d'une Symbiose Industrielle au nord du Nigéria, à laquelle j'ai participé en tant qu'observatrice dès 2007. AshakaCem, une usine productrice de ciment du groupe Lafarge, doit faire face à de nombreuses tensions avec la population rurale alentour. L'entreprise a donc décidé d'adopter une nouvelle méthode inspirée des concepts de Symbiose Industrielle. Le projet consiste à remplacer jusqu'à 10% du carburant fossile utilisé pour la cuisson de la matière crue (calcaire et additifs) par de la biomasse produite par les paysans locaux. Pour ne pas compromettre la fragile sécurité alimentaire régionale, des techniques de lutte contre l'érosion et de fertilisation naturelle des sols sont enseignées aux paysans, qui peuvent ainsi utiliser la culture de biomasse pour améliorer leurs cultures vivrières. A travers cette Symbiose Industrielle, l'entreprise poursuit des objectifs sociaux (poser les bases nécessaires à un développement régional), mais également environnementaux (réduire ses émissions de CO2 globales) et économiques (réduire ses coûts énergétiques). Elle s'ancre ainsi dans une perspective de développement durable qui est conditionnelle à la réalisation du projet.A travers l'observation de cette Symbiose et par la connaissance des outils existants je constate qu'une évaluation de la durabilité de projets dans les pays en développement nécessite l'utilisation de critères d'évaluation propres à chaque projet. En effet, dans ce contexte, l'emploi de critères génériques apporte une évaluation trop éloignée des besoins et de la réalité locale. C'est pourquoi, en m'inspirant des outils internationalement reconnus comme l'Analyse du Cycle de Vie ou la Global Reporting Initiative, je définis dans cette thèse un cadre méthodologique qui peut, lui, être identique pour tous les projets. Cette stratégie suit six étapes, qui se réalisent de manière itérative pour permettre une auto¬amélioration de la méthodologie d'évaluation et du projet lui-même. Au cours de ces étapes, les besoins et objectifs en termes sociaux, économiques et environnementaux des différents acteurs sont déterminés, puis regroupés, hiérarchisés et formulés sous forme de critères à évaluer. Des indicateurs quantitatifs ou qualitatifs sont ensuite définis pour chacun de ces critères. Une des spécificités de cette stratégie est de définir une échelle d'évaluation en cinq graduations, identique pour chaque indicateur, témoignant d'un objectif totalement atteint (++) ou pas du tout atteint (--).L'application de ce cadre méthodologique à la Symbiose nigériane a permis de déterminer quatre critères économiques, quatre critères socio-économiques et six critères environnementaux à évaluer. Pour les caractériser, 22 indicateurs ont été définis. L'évaluation de ces indicateurs a permis de montrer que le projet élaboré atteint les objectifs de durabilité fixés pour la majorité des critères. Quatre indicateurs ont un résultat neutre (0), et un cinquième montre qu'un critère n'est pas atteint (--). Ces résultats s'expliquent par le fait que le projet n'en est encore qu'à sa phase pilote et n'a donc pas encore atteint la taille et la diffusion optimales. Un suivi sur plusieurs années permettra de garantir que ces manques seront comblés.Le cadre méthodologique que j'ai développé dans cette thèse est un outil d'évaluation participatif qui pourra être utilisé dans un contexte plus large que celui des pays en développement. Son caractère générique en fait un très bon outil pour la définition de critères et indicateurs de suivi de projet en terme de développement durable.SummaryThis thesis examines the use of industrial symbiosis in developing countries and studies its potential to stimulate sustainable regional development in rural areas across Western Africa. In particular, when industrial symbiosis is instituted between a factory and the surrounding population, evaluation tools are required to ensure the project achieves truly sustainable development. Existing tools developed in industrialized countries are not entirely suited to assessing projects in developing countries. Indeed, the implicit hypotheses behind such tools reflect the socioeconomic context in which they were designed. The goal of this thesis is to develop a methodological framework for evaluating the sustainability of industrial symbiosis projects in developing countries.To accomplish this, I followed a case study about the implementation of industrial symbiosis in northern Nigeria by participating as an observer since 2007. AshakaCem, a cement works of Lafarge group, must confront many issues associated with violence committed by the local rural population. Thus, the company decided to adopt a new approach inspired by the concepts of industrial symbiosis.The project involves replacing up to 10% of the fossil fuel used to heat limestone with biomass produced by local farmers. To avoid jeopardizing the fragile security of regional food supplies, farmers are taught ways to combat erosion and naturally fertilize the soil. They can then use biomass cultivation to improve their subsistence crops. Through this industrial symbiosis, AshakaCem follows social objectives (to lay the necessary foundations for regional development), but also environmental ones (to reduce its overall CO2 emissions) and economical ones (to reduce its energy costs). The company is firmly rooted in a view of sustainable development that is conditional upon the project's execution.By observing this symbiosis and by being familiar with existing tools, I note that assessing the sustainability of projects in developing countries requires using evaluation criteria that are specific to each project. Indeed, using generic criteria results in an assessment that is too far removed from what is needed and from the local reality. Thus, by drawing inspiration from such internationally known tools as Life Cycle Analysis and the Global Reporting Initiative, I define a generic methodological framework for the participative establishment of an evaluation methodology specific to each project.The strategy follows six phases that are fulfilled iteratively so as to improve the evaluation methodology and the project itself as it moves forward. During these phases, the social, economic, and environmental needs and objectives of the stakeholders are identified, grouped, ranked, and expressed as criteria for evaluation. Quantitative or qualitative indicators are then defined for each of these criteria. One of the characteristics of this strategy is to define a five-point evaluation scale, the same for each indicator, to reflect a goal that was completely reached (++) or not reached at all (--).Applying the methodological framework to the Nigerian symbiosis yielded four economic criteria, four socioeconomic criteria, and six environmental criteria to assess. A total of 22 indicators were defined to characterize the criteria. Evaluating these indicators made it possible to show that the project meets the sustainability goals set for the majority of criteria. Four indicators had a neutral result (0); a fifth showed that one criterion had not been met (--). These results can be explained by the fact that the project is still only in its pilot phase and, therefore, still has not reached its optimum size and scope. Following up over several years will make it possible to ensure these gaps will be filled.The methodological framework presented in this thesis is a highly effective tool that can be used in a broader context than developing countries. Its generic nature makes it a very good tool for defining criteria and follow-up indicators for sustainable development.

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The current status of research on use of earth observing satellite sensors and geographic ifnormation systems for control program management of schistosomiais and fascioliasis is reviewed.

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α-glycerophosphate dehydrogenase (α-GPDH-EC.1.1.1.8) has been considered absent in Trypanosoma cruzi in contradiction with all other studied trypanosomatids. After observing that the sole malate dehydrogenase can not maintain the intraglycosomal redox balance, GPDH activity was looked for and found, although in very variable levels, in epimastigotes extracts. GPDH was shown to be exclusively located in the glycosome of T. cruzi by digitonin treatment and isopycnic centrifugation. Antibody against T. brucei GPDH showed that this enzyme seemed to be present in an essentially inactive form at the beginning of the epimastigotes growth. GPDH is apparently linked to a salicylhydroxmic-sensitive glycerophosphate reoxidizing system and plays an essential role in the glycosome redox balance.

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We study the interaction between nonprice public rationing and prices in the private market. Under a limited budget, the public supplier uses a rationing policy. A private firm may supply the good to those consumers who are rationed by the public system. Consumers have different amounts of wealth, and costs of providing the good to them vary. We consider two regimes. First, the public supplier observes consumers' wealth information; second, the public supplier observes both wealth and cost information. The public supplier chooses a rationing policy, and, simultaneously, the private firm, observing only cost but not wealth information, chooses a pricing policy. In the first regime, there is a continuum of equilibria. The Pareto dominant equilibrium is a means-test equilibrium: poor consumers are supplied while rich consumers are rationed. Prices in the private market increase with the budget. In the second regime, there is a unique equilibrium. This exhibits a cost-effectiveness rationing rule; consumers are supplied if and only if their costbenefit ratios are low. Prices in the private market do not change with the budget. Equilibrium consumer utility is higher in the cost-effectiveness equilibrium than the means-test equilibrium [Authors]

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Number of larval instars, age structure and environmental effects on these parameters represent basic information in the study of insect population biology. When species have economic importance, this information is essential in order to choose the best period to apply different control methods and to determine the stages of the life cycle of the insect that are most susceptible to each treatment. The family Simuliidae has many species of medical/veterinary importance in the world, and some studies in the temperate region have suggested that the number of larval instars and the larval size can vary according to the season, gender and some environmental factors, such as temperature and diet. This study, with the zoophilic species Simulium perflavum Roubaud, is the first in the Neotropics observing some of these factors and will serve as a template for other species of medical importance in the region. S. perflavum larvae were collected in five streams in Central Amazônia (Manaus and Presidente Figueiredo counties, State of Amazonas), in Sept./Oct. 1996 (dry season) and Feb./Mar. 1997 (rainy season). These larvae were measured (lateral length of head capsule and width of cephalic apodema) to determine the number of larval instars (n=3985), to compare the larval size between seasons and genders (last and penultimate larval instars, n=200). Seven larval instars were determined for this species using frequency distributions, t-tests and Crosby´s growth rule. Significant differences were not detected (t-test, p>0.05) in larval size between seasons and genders. Our results differ from some found in temperate regions suggesting that in the Neotropical region the larval size in different seasons and different genders remains constant, although some environmental parameters, such as diet, change depending on the season.

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In order to improve the specificity and sensitivity of the techniques for the human anisakidosis diagnosis, a method of affinity chromatography for the purification of species-specific antigens from Anisakis simplex third-stage larvae (L3) has been developed. New Zealand rabbits were immunized with A. simplex or Ascaris suum antigens or inoculated with Toxocara canis embryonated eggs. The IgG specific antibodies were isolated by means of protein A-Sepharose CL-4B beads columns. IgG anti-A. simplex and -A. suum were coupled to CNBr-activated Sepharose 4B. For the purification of the larval A. simplex antigens, these were loaded into the anti-A. simplex column and bound antigens eluted. For the elimination of the epitopes responsible for the cross-reactions, the A. simplex specific proteins were loaded into the anti-A. suum column. To prove the specificity of the isolated proteins, immunochemical analyses by polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis were carried out. Further, we studied the different responses by ELISA to the different antigenic preparations of A. simplex used, observing their capability of discriminating among the different antisera raised in rabbits (anti-A. simplex, anti-A. suum, anti-T. canis). The discriminatory capability with the anti-T. canis antisera was good using the larval A. simplex crude extract (CE) antigen. When larval A. simplex CE antigen was loaded into a CNBr-activated Sepharose 4B coupled to IgG from rabbits immunized with A. simplex CE antigen, its capability for discriminate between A. simplex and A. suum was improved, increasing in the case of T. canis. The best results were obtained using larval A. simplex CE antigen loaded into a CNBr-activated Sepharose 4B coupled to IgG from rabbits immunized with adult A. suum CE antigen. When we compared the different serum dilution and antigenic concentration, we selected the working serum dilution of 1/400 and 1 µg/ml of antigenic concentration.