The design of a real-time nowcasting system for localised weather

National meteorological offices are largely concerned with synoptic-scale forecasting where weather predictions are produced for a whole country for 24 hours ahead. In practice, many local organisations (such as emergency services, construction industries, forestry, farming, and sports) require only local short-term, bespoke, weather predictions and warnings. This thesis shows that the less-demanding requirements do not require exceptional computing power and can be met by a modern, desk-top system which monitors site-specific ground conditions (such as temperature, pressure, wind speed and direction, etc) augmented with above ground information from satellite images to produce `nowcasts'. The emphasis in this thesis has been towards the design of such a real-time system for nowcasting. Local site-specific conditions are monitored using a custom-built, stand alone, Motorola 6809 based sub-system. Above ground information is received from the METEOSAT 4 geo-stationary satellite using a sub-system based on a commercially available equipment. The information is ephemeral and must be captured in real-time. The real-time nowcasting system for localised weather handles the data as a transparent task using the limited capabilities of the PC system. Ground data produces a time series of measurements at a specific location which represents the past-to-present atmospheric conditions of the particular site from which much information can be extracted. The novel approach adopted in this thesis is one of constructing stochastic models based on the AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) technique. The satellite images contain features (such as cloud formations) which evolve dynamically and may be subject to movement, growth, distortion, bifurcation, superposition, or elimination between images. The process of extracting a weather feature, following its motion and predicting its future evolution involves algorithms for normalisation, partitioning, filtering, image enhancement, and correlation of multi-dimensional signals in different domains. To limit the processing requirements, the analysis in this thesis concentrates on an `area of interest'. By this rationale, only a small fraction of the total image needs to be processed, leading to a major saving in time. The thesis also proposes an extention to an existing manual cloud classification technique for its implementation in automatically classifying a cloud feature over the `area of interest' for nowcasting using the multi-dimensional signals.

An investigation of the prevalence and measurement of teams in organisations:the development and validation of the real team scale

This thesis begins with a review of the literature on team-based working in organisations, highlighting the variations in research findings, and the need for greater precision in our measurement of teams. It continues with an illustration of the nature and prevalence of real and pseudo team-based working, by presenting results from a large sample of secondary data from the UK National Health Service. Results demonstrate that ‘real teams’ have an important and significant impact on the reduction of many work-related safety outcomes. Based on both theoretical and methodological limitations of existing approaches, the thesis moves on to provide a clarification and extension of the ‘real team’ construct, demarcating this from other (pseudo-like) team typologies on a sliding scale, rather than a simple dichotomy. A conceptual model for defining real teams is presented, providing a theoretical basis for the development of a scale on which teams can be measured for varying extents of ‘realness’. A new twelve-item scale is developed and tested with three samples of data comprising 53 undergraduate teams, 52 postgraduate teams, and 63 public sector teams from a large UK organisation. Evidence for the content, construct and criterion-related validity of the real team scale is examined over seven separate validation studies. Theoretical, methodological and practical implications of the real team scale are then discussed.

Sums of a Random Number of Random Variables and their Approximations with ν- Accompanying Infinitely Divisible Laws

* Research supported by NATO GRANT CRG 900 798 and by Humboldt Award for U.S. Scientists.

On the Arithmetic of Errors

An approximate number is an ordered pair consisting of a (real) number and an error bound, briefly error, which is a (real) non-negative number. To compute with approximate numbers the arithmetic operations on errors should be well-known. To model computations with errors one should suitably define and study arithmetic operations and order relations over the set of non-negative numbers. In this work we discuss the algebraic properties of non-negative numbers starting from familiar properties of real numbers. We focus on certain operations of errors which seem not to have been sufficiently studied algebraically. In this work we restrict ourselves to arithmetic operations for errors related to addition and multiplication by scalars. We pay special attention to subtractability-like properties of errors and the induced “distance-like” operation. This operation is implicitly used under different names in several contemporary fields of applied mathematics (inner subtraction and inner addition in interval analysis, generalized Hukuhara difference in fuzzy set theory, etc.) Here we present some new results related to algebraic properties of this operation.

On Arrangements of Real Roots of a Real Polynomial and Its Derivatives

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 12D10.

Unveiling temporal correlations characteristic of a phase transition in the output intensity of a fiber laser

We use advanced statistical tools of time-series analysis to characterize the dynamical complexity of the transition to optical wave turbulence in a fiber laser. Ordinal analysis and the horizontal visibility graph applied to the experimentally measured laser output intensity reveal the presence of temporal correlations during the transition from the laminar to the turbulent lasing regimes. Both methods unveil coherent structures with well-defined time scales and strong correlations both, in the timing of the laser pulses and in their peak intensities. Our approach is generic and may be used in other complex systems that undergo similar transitions involving the generation of extreme fluctuations.

Securitization of Lodging Real Estate Finance

In the early 1990s, the U.S. lodging industry witnessed a severe shortage of debt capital as traditional lenders exited the market. During this period hotel lending was revolutionized by the emergence of real estate debt securities. The author discusses key factors which have affected the growth and development of commercial mortgage backed securities and their changing role as a significant source of debt capital to the lodging industry.

The effects of mobile real-time information on rural passengers

The research described here is supported by the award made by the RCUK Digital Economy programme to the dot.rural Digital Economy Research Hub; award reference: EP/G066051/1/.

Mobile Phones, Sensors & The Crowd: Lessons Learnt From Development of a Real-Time Travel Information System

Postprint

Influencing effect of heat-treatment on radon emanation and exhalation characteristic of red mud

The reuse of industrial by-products is important for members of numerous industrial sectors. However, though the benefits of reuse are evident from an economical point of view, some compounds in these materials can have a negative effect on users' health.In this study, the radon emanation and exhalation features of red mud were surveyed using heat-treatment (100-1200 °C). As a result of the 1200°C-treated samples, massic radon exhalation capacity reduced from 75 ± 10 mBq kg^-1 h^-1 to 7 ± 4 mBq kg^-1 h^-1, approximately 10% of the initial exhalation rate.To find an explanation for internal structural changes, the porosity features of the heat-treated samples were also investigated. It was found that the cumulative pore volume reduced significantly in less than 100 nm, which can explain the reduced massic exhalation capacity in the high temperature treated range mentioned above.SEM snapshots were taken of the surfaces of the samples as visual evidence for superficial morphological changes. It was found that the surface of the high temperature treated samples had changed, proving the decrement of open pores on the surface.

Assessing the resilience of a real-world social-ecological system: lessons from a multidisciplinary evaluation of a South African pastoral system

In the past decades, social-ecological systems (SESs) worldwide have undergone dramatic transformations with often detrimental consequences for livelihoods. Although resilience thinking offers promising conceptual frameworks to understand SES transformations, empirical resilience assessments of real-world SESs are still rare because SES complexity requires integrating knowledge, theories, and approaches from different disciplines. Taking up this challenge, we empirically assess the resilience of a South African pastoral SES to drought using various methods from natural and social sciences. In the ecological subsystem, we analyze rangelands’ ability to buffer drought effects on forage provision, using soil and vegetation indicators. In the social subsystem, we assess households’ and communities’ capacities to mitigate drought effects, applying agronomic and institutional indicators and benchmarking against practices and institutions in traditional pastoral SESs. Our results indicate that a decoupling of livelihoods from livestock-generated income was initiated by government interventions in the 1930s. In the post-apartheid phase, minimum-input strategies of herd management were adopted, leading to a recovery of rangeland vegetation due to unintentionally reduced stocking densities. Because current livelihood security is mainly based on external monetary resources (pensions, child grants, and disability grants), household resilience to drought is higher than in historical phases. Our study is one of the first to use a truly multidisciplinary resilience assessment. Conflicting results from partial assessments underline that measuring narrow indicator sets may impede a deeper understanding of SES transformations. The results also imply that the resilience of contemporary, open SESs cannot be explained by an inward-looking approach because essential connections and drivers at other scales have become relevant in the globalized world. Our study thus has helped to identify pitfalls in empirical resilience assessment and to improve the conceptualization of SES dynamics.

Development of a real time Image analysis system for traffic monitoring applications.

Image processing offers unparalleled potential for traffic monitoring and control. For many years engineers have attempted to perfect the art of automatic data abstraction from sequences of video images. This paper outlines a research project undertaken at Napier University by the authors in the field of image processing for automatic traffic analysis. A software based system implementing TRIP algorithms to count cars and measure vehicle speed has been developed by members of the Transport Engineering Research Unit (TERU) at the University. The TRIP algorithm has been ported and evaluated on an IBM PC platform with a view to hardware implementation of the pre-processing routines required for vehicle detection. Results show that a software based traffic counting system is realisable for single window processing. Due to the high volume of data required to be processed for full frames or multiple lanes, system operations in real time are limited. Therefore specific hardware is required to be designed. The paper outlines a hardware design for implementation of inter-frame and background differencing, background updating and shadow removal techniques. Preliminary results showing the processing time and counting accuracy for the routines implemented in software are presented and a real time hardware pre-processing architecture is described.

Development of a Real Time System in Algol 68.

For various reasons, many Algol 68 compilers do not directly implement the parallel processing operations defined in the Revised Algol 68 Report. It is still possible however, to perform parallel processing, multitasking and simulation provided that the implementation permits the creation of a master routine for the coordination and initiation of processes under its control. The package described here is intended for real time applications and runs in conjunction with the Algol 68R system; it extends and develops the original Algol 68RT package, which was designed for use with multiplexers at the Royal Radar Establishment, Malvern. The facilities provided, in addition to the synchronising operations, include an interface to an ICL Communications Processor enabling the abstract processes to be realised as the interaction of several teletypes or visual display units with a real time program providing a useful service.