济阳-昌潍坳陷火成岩油气藏体系形成机理和分布规律研究

Jiyang & Changwei depressions are two neighboring depressions in Bahai Bay Basin, the famous oil rich basin in East China. The exploration activities in the past 40 years has proved that, within the basins, there exists not only plentiful sandstone hydrocarbon reservoirs (conventional), but also abundant special reservoirs as igneous rock, mudstone and conglomerate ones which have been knowing as the unconventional in the past, and with the prospecting activity is getting more and more detailed, the unconventional reservoirs are also getting more and more important for further resources, among which, the igneous lithological reservoir be of significance as a new research and exploration area. The purpose of this paper is, with the historical researches and data as base, the System Theory, Practice Theory and Modern Comprehensive Petroleum Geology Theory as guide, the theoretical and practice break through as the goal, and the existing problems in the past as the break through direction, to explore and establish a valid reservoir formation and distribution models for igneous strata in the profile of the eastern faulted basins. After investigating the distribution of the igneous rocks and review the history of the igneous rocks reservoirs in basins, the author focused on the following issues and correspondingly the following progresses have been made: 1.Come to a new basin evolution and structure model named "Combined-Basin-bodies Model" for Jiyang even Eastern faulted basins based on the study on the origin and evolution of Jiyang & Changwei basins, depending on this model, every faulted basin in the Bo-hai Bay Basin is consisted of three Basin-Bodies including the Lower (Mesozoic), Middle (Early Tertiary) and the Upper (Late Tertiary) Bodies, each evolved in different geo-stress setting and with different basin trend, shape and igneous-sedimentary buildings system, and from this one to next one, the basin experienced a kind of process named "shape changing" and "Style changing". 2. Supposed a serious of new realizations as follows (1) There were "multi-level magma sources" including Upper mantel and the Lower, Middle and even the Upper Shell magma Chambers in the historical Magma Processes in the basins; (2) There were "multi-magma accessing or pass" from the first level (Mantel faults) to the second, third and fourth levels (that is the different levels of fault in the basin sediment strata) worked in the geo-historical and magma processes; (3) Three tectonic magma cycles and more periods have been recognized those are matched with the "Basin -body-Model" and (4)The geo-historical magma processes were non-homogeneous in time and space scale and so the magma rocks distributed in "zones" or "belts". 3. The study of magma process's effect on basin petroleum conditions have been made and the following new conclusions were reached: (1) the eruptive rocks were tend to be matched with the "caped source rock", and the magma process were favorable to the maturing of the source rocks. (2) The magma process were fruitful to the accumulation of the non-hydrocarbon reservoirs however a over magma process may damage the grade of resource rock; (3) Eruptive activity provided a fruitful environment for the formation of such new reservoir rocks as "co-eruptive turbidity sandstones" and "thermal water carbonate rocks" and the intrusive process can lead to the origin of "metamorphism rock reservoir"; (4) even if the intrusive process may cause the cap rock broken, the late Tertiary intrusive rocks may indeed provide the lateral seal and act as the cap rock locally even regionally. All above progresses are valuable for reconstructing the magma-sedimentary process history and enriching the theory system of modem petroleum geology. 4. A systematic classification system has been provided and the dominating factors for the origin and distribution of igneous rock reservoirs have been worked out based on the systematic case studies, which are as follows: (1) The classification is given based on multi-factors as the origin type, litho-phase, type of reservoir pore, reservoir ability etc., (2) Each type of reservoir was characterized in a detailed way; (3) There are 7 factors dominated the intrusive reservoir's characteristics including depth of intrusion, litho-facies of surrounding rocks, thickness of intrusive rock, intrusive facies, frequency and size of the working faults, shape and tectonic deformation of rock, erosion strength of the rock and the time of the intrusion ect., in the contrast, 4 factors are for eruptive rocks as volcanic facies, frequency and size of the working faults, strength of erosion and the thermal water processing. 5. Several new concept including "reservoir litho-facies", "composite-volcanic facies" and "reservoir system" ect. Were suggested, based on which the following models were established: (1) A seven reservoir belts model for a intrusive unit profile and further more, (2) a three layers cubic model consisted of three layer as "metamorphic roe layer", "marginal layer" and "the core"; (3) A five zones vertical reservoir sequence model consisted of five litho-facies named A, B, C, D and E for a original lava unit and furthermore three models respectively for a erosion, subsidence and faulted lava unit; (4) A composite volcanic face model for a lava cone or a composite cone that is consisted of three facies as "crater and nearby face", "middle slope" and "far slope", among which, the middle slope face is the most potential reservoir area and producible for oil & gas. 6. The concept of "igneous reservoir" was redefined as the igneous, and then a new concept of "igneous reservoir system" was supposed which means the reservoir system consisted of igneous and associated non-igneous reservoirs, with non-hydrocarbon reservoir included. 7. The origin and distribution of igneous reservoir system were probed and generalized for the exploration applications, and origin models of the main reservoir sub-systems have been established including those of igneous, related non-igneous and non-hydrocarbon. For intrusive rocks, two reservoir formation models have been suggested, one is called "Original or Primary Model", and the another one is "Secondary Model"; Similarly, the eruptive rock reservoirs were divided in three types including "Highly Produced", "Moderately Produced" and "Lowly Produced" and accordingly their formation models were given off; the related non-igneous reservoir system was considered combination of eight reservoirs, among which some ones like the Above Anticline Trap are highly produced; Also, the non-hydrocarbon. Trap system including five kinds of traps was discussed. 8. The concept models for four reservoir systems were suggested, which include the intrusive system consisted of 7 kinds of traps, the land eruptive system with 6 traps, the under water eruptive system including 6 kinds of traps and the non-hydrocarbon system combined by 5 kinds of traps. In this part, the techniques for exploration of igneous reservoir system were also generalized and probed, and based on which and the geological progresses of this paper, the potential resources and distributions of every reservoir system was evaluated and about 186 millions of reserves and eight most potential non-hydrocarbon areas were predicted and outlined. The author believe that the igneous reservoir system is a very important exploration area and its study is only in its early stage, the framework of this paper should be filled with more detailed studies, and only along way, the exploration of igneous reservoir system can go into it's really effective stage.

Germanium MOS Capacitors with Hafnium Dioxide and Silicon Dioxide Dielectrics

Germanium (Ge) does not grow a suitable oxide for MOS devices. The Ge/dielectric interface is of prime importance to the operation of photo-detectors and scaled MOSTs. Therefore there is a requirement for deposited or bonded dielectric materials. MOS capacitors have been formed on germanium substrates with three different dielectric materials. Firstly, a thermally grown and bonded silicon dioxide (SiO2) layer, secondly, SiO2 deposited by atmospheric pressure CVD ‘silox’, and thirdly a hafnium oxide (HfO2) high-k dielectric deposited by atomic layer deposition (ALD). Ge wafers used were p-type 1 0 0 2 O cm. C–V measurements have been made on all three types of capacitors to assess the interface quality. ALD HfO2 and silox both display acceptable C–V characteristics. Threshold voltage and maximum and minimum capacitance values closely match expected values found through calculation. However, the bonded SiO2 has non-ideal C–V characteristics, revealing the presence of a high density of interface states. A H2/N2 post metal anneal has a detrimental effect on C–V characteristics of HfO2 and silox dielectrics, causing a shift in the threshold voltage and rise in the minimum capacitance value. In the case of hafnium dioxide, capacitor properties can be improved by performing a plasma nitridation of the Ge surface prior to dielectric deposition.

Short pulse pumped X-ray lasers

Double laser pulses of duration similar to 75 ps and short laser pulses similar to 1 ps superimposed on longer duration background pulses have been shown to efficiently pump lasing in Ne-like and Ni-like ions. For the 75 ps pumping, X-ray laser output without travelling wave pumping is shown to be well-described by a model of ASE output. With I ps pumping, the X-ray laser output with different velocity travelling wave pumping is well-fitted with an extension to the ASE model allowing for travelling wave excitation of the gain along the plasma line. The model is used to investigate the production of short (<1 ps) x-ray laser pulses and the effects of non-ideal travelling wave velocities on the X-ray laser output. Resonance line spectra of emission perpendicular to the plasma line are measured and simulated. It is shown that an accurate opacity model for the more intense Ne-like ions is needed to correctly simulate the spectra.

Mathematical Modelling of a Reciprocating Piston Expander

Modern internal combustion (IC) engines reject around two thirds of the energy provided by the fuel as low-grade waste heat. Capturing a portion of this waste heat energy and transforming it into a more useful form of energy could result in a significant reduction in fuel consumption. By using the low-grade heat, an organic Rankine cycle (ORC) can produce mechanical work from a pressurised organic fluid with the use of an expander.
Ideal gas assumptions are shown to produce significant errors in expander performance predictions when using an organic fluid. This paper details the mathematical modelling technique used to accurately model the thermodynamic processes for both ideal and non-ideal fluids within the reciprocating expander. A comparison between the two methods illustrates the extent of the errors when modelling a reciprocating piston expander. Use of the ideal gas assumptions are shown to produce an error of 55% in the prediction of power produced by the expander when operating on refrigerant R134a.

Alfvén Waves in Simulations of Solar Photospheric Vortices

Using advanced numerical magneto-hydrodynamic simulations of the magnetized solar photosphere, including non-gray radiative transport and a non-ideal equation of state, we analyze plasma motions in photospheric magnetic vortices. We demonstrate that apparent vortex-like motions in photospheric magnetic field concentrations do not exhibit "tornado"-like behavior or a "bath-tub" effect. While at each time instance the velocity field lines in the upper layers of the solar photosphere show swirls, the test particles moving with the time-dependent velocity field do not demonstrate such structures. Instead, they move in a wave-like fashion with rapidly changing and oscillating velocity field, determined mainly by magnetic tension in the magnetized intergranular downflows. Using time-distance diagrams, we identify horizontal motions in the magnetic flux tubes as torsional Alfvén perturbations propagating along the nearly vertical magnetic field lines with local Alfvén speed.

Electrochemical methodology to study labile trace metal/natural organic matter complexation at low concentration levels in natural waters

A new electrochemical methodology to study labile trace metal/natural organic matter complexation at low concentration levels in natural waters is presented. This methodology consists of three steps: (i) an estimation of the complex diffusion coefficient (DML), (ii) determination at low pH of the total metal concentration initially present in the sample, (iii) a metal titration at the desired pH. The free and bound metal concentrations are determined for each point of the titration and modeled with the non-ideal competitive adsorption (NICA-Donnan) model in order to obtain the binding parameters. In this methodology, it is recommended to determine the hydrodynamic transport parameter, α, for each set of hydrodynamic conditions used in the voltammetric measurements. The methodology was tested using two fractions of natural organic matter (NOM) isolated from the Loire river, namely the hydrophobic organic matter (HPO) and the transphilic organic matter (TPI), and a well characterized fulvic acid (Laurentian fulvic acid, LFA). The complex diffusion coefficients obtained at pH 5 were 0.4 ± 0.2 for Pb and Cu/HPO, 1.8 ± 0.2 for Pb/TPI and (0.612 ± 0.009) × 10−10 m2 s−1 for Pb/LFA. NICA-Donnan parameters for lead binding were obtained for the HPO and TPI fractions. The new lead/LFA results were successfully predicted using parameters derived in our previous work.

Controladores linguísticos Fuzzy

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica

Shared resources and precedence constraints with capacity sharing and stealing

This paper proposes a new strategy to integrate shared resources and precedence constraints among real-time tasks, assuming no precise information on critical sections and computation times is available. The concept of bandwidth inheritance is combined with a greedy capacity sharing and stealing policy to efficiently exchange bandwidth among tasks, minimising the degree of deviation from the ideal system's behaviour caused by inter-application blocking. The proposed capacity exchange protocol (CXP) focus on exchanging extra capacities as early, and not necessarily as fairly, as possible. This loss of optimality is worth the reduced complexity as the protocol's behaviour nevertheless tends to be fair in the long run and outperforms other solutions in highly dynamic scenarios, as demonstrated by extensive simulations.

Economic Incentives and Liberal Equality

In order to assess to the degree to which the provision of economic incentives can result in justified inequalities, we need to distinguish between compensatory incentive payments and non-compensatory incentive payments. From a liberal egalitarian perspective, economic inequalities traceable to the provision of compensatory incentive payments are generally justifiable. However, economic inequalities created by the provision of non-compensatory incentive payments are more problematic. I argue that in non-ideal circumstances justice may permit and even require the provision of non-compensatory incentives despite the fact that those who receive non-compensatory payments are not entitled to them. In some circumstances, justice may require us to accede to unreasonable demands for incentive payments by hard bargainers. This leads to a kind of paradox: from a systemic point of view, non-compensatory incentive payments can be justified even though those who receive them have no just claim to them.

Analyse spectroscopique d'étoiles naines blanches riches en hydrogène(DA) : vers des modèles d'atmosphère améliorés sans paramètres libres

Le but de cette thèse est de raffiner et de mieux comprendre l'utilisation de la méthode spectroscopique, qui compare des spectres visibles de naines blanches à atmosphère riche en hydrogène (DA) à des spectres synthétiques pour en déterminer les paramètres atmosphériques (température effective et gravité de surface). Notre approche repose principalement sur le développement de modèles de spectres améliorés, qui proviennent eux-mêmes de modèles d'atmosphère de naines blanches de type DA. Nous présentons une nouvelle grille de spectres synthétiques de DA avec la première implémentation cohérente de la théorie du gaz non-idéal de Hummer & Mihalas et de la théorie unifiée de l'élargissement Stark de Vidal, Cooper & Smith. Cela permet un traitement adéquat du chevauchement des raies de la série de Balmer, sans la nécessité d'un paramètre libre. Nous montrons que ces spectres améliorés prédisent des gravités de surface qui sont plus stables en fonction de la température effective. Nous étudions ensuite le problème de longue date des gravités élevées pour les DA froides. L'hypothèse de Bergeron et al., selon laquelle les atmosphères sont contaminées par de l'hélium, est confrontée aux observations. À l'aide de spectres haute résolution récoltés au télescope Keck à Hawaii, nous trouvons des limites supérieures sur la quantité d'hélium dans les atmosphères de près de 10 fois moindres que celles requises par le scénario de Bergeron et al. La grille de spectres conçue dans ces travaux est ensuite appliquée à une nouvelle analyse spectroscopique de l'échantillon de DA du SDSS. Notre approche minutieuse permet de définir un échantillon plus propre et d'identifier un nombre important de naines blanches binaires. Nous déterminons qu'une coupure à un rapport signal-sur-bruit S/N > 15 optimise la grandeur et la qualité de l'échantillon pour calculer la masse moyenne, pour laquelle nous trouvons une valeur de 0.613 masse solaire. Finalement, huit nouveaux modèles 3D de naines blanches utilisant un traitement d'hydrodynamique radiative de la convection sont présentés. Nous avons également calculé des modèles avec la même physique, mais avec une traitement standard 1D de la convection avec la théorie de la longueur de mélange. Un analyse différentielle entre ces deux séries de modèles montre que les modèles 3D prédisent des gravités considérablement plus basses. Nous concluons que le problème des gravités élevées dans les naines blanches DA froides est fort probablement causé par une faiblesse dans la théorie de la longueur de mélange.

Tailoring Magnetic Properties of Co-Fe Thin Films by Topographical Modifications Using Thermal Annealing and Swift Heavy Ion Irradiation and Fabrication of Magnetoelectric Multilayers for Device Applications

Magnetism and magnetic materials have been playing a lead role in improving the quality of life. They are increasingly being used in a wide variety of applications ranging from compasses to modern technological devices. Metallic glasses occupy an important position among magnetic materials. They assume importance both from a scientific and an application point of view since they represent an amorphous form of condensed matter with significant deviation from thermodynamic equilibrium. Metallic glasses having good soft magnetic properties are widely used in tape recorder heads, cores of high-power transformers and metallic shields. Superconducting metallic glasses are being used to produce high magnetic fields and magnetic levitation effect. Upon heat treatment, they undergo structural relaxation leading to subtle rearrangements of constituent atoms. This leads to densification of amorphous phase and subsequent nanocrystallisation. The short-range structural relaxation phenomenon gives rise to significant variations in physical, mechanical and magnetic properties. Magnetic amorphous alloys of Co-Fe exhibit excellent soft magnetic properties which make them promising candidates for applications as transformer cores, sensors, and actuators. With the advent of microminiaturization and nanotechnology, thin film forms of these alloys are sought after for soft under layers for perpendicular recording media. The thin film forms of these alloys can also be used for fabrication of magnetic micro electro mechanical systems (magnetic MEMS). In bulk, they are drawn in the form of ribbons, often by melt spinning. The main constituents of these alloys are Co, Fe, Ni, Si, Mo and B. Mo acts as the grain growth inhibitor and Si and B facilitate the amorphous nature in the alloy structure. The ferromagnetic phases such as Co-Fe and Fe-Ni in the alloy composition determine the soft magnetic properties. The grain correlation length, a measure of the grain size, often determines the soft magnetic properties of these alloys. Amorphous alloys could be restructured in to their nanocrystalline counterparts by different techniques. The structure of nanocrystalline material consists of nanosized ferromagnetic crystallites embedded in an amorphous matrix. When the amorphous phase is ferromagnetic, they facilitate exchange coupling between nanocrystallites. This exchange coupling results in the vanishing of magnetocrystalline anisotropy which improves the soft magnetic properties. From a fundamental perspective, exchange correlation length and grain size are the deciding factors that determine the magnetic properties of these nanocrystalline materials. In thin films, surfaces and interfaces predominantly decides the bulk property and hence tailoring the surface roughness and morphology of the film could result in modified magnetic properties. Surface modifications can be achieved by thermal annealing at various temperatures. Ion irradiation is an alternative tool to modify the surface/structural properties. The surface evolution of a thin film under swift heavy ion (SHI) irradiation is an outcome of different competing mechanism. It could be sputtering induced by SHI followed by surface roughening process and the material transport induced smoothening process. The impingement of ions with different fluence on the alloy is bound to produce systematic microstructural changes and this could effectively be used for tailoring magnetic parameters namely coercivity, saturation magnetization, magnetic permeability and remanence of these materials. Swift heavy ion irradiation is a novel and an ingenious tool for surface modification which eventually will lead to changes in the bulk as well as surface magnetic property. SHI has been widely used as a method for the creation of latent tracks in thin films. The bombardment of SHI modifies the surfaces or interfaces or creates defects, which induces strain in the film. These changes will have profound influence on the magnetic anisotropy and the magnetisation of the specimen. Thus inducing structural and morphological changes by thermal annealing and swift heavy ion irradiation, which in turn induce changes in the magnetic properties of these alloys, is one of the motivation of this study. Multiferroic and magneto-electrics is a class of functional materials with wide application potential and are of great interest to material scientists and engineers. Magnetoelectric materials combine both magnetic as well as ferroelectric properties in a single specimen. The dielectric properties of such materials can be controlled by the application of an external magnetic field and the magnetic properties by an electric field. Composites with magnetic and piezo/ferroelectric individual phases are found to have strong magnetoelectric (ME) response at room temperature and hence are preferred to single phasic multiferroic materials. Currently research in this class of materials is towards optimization of the ME coupling by tailoring the piezoelectric and magnetostrictive properties of the two individual components of ME composites. The magnetoelectric coupling constant (MECC) (_ ME) is the parameter that decides the extent of interdependence of magnetic and electric response of the composite structure. Extensive investigates have been carried out in bulk composites possessing on giant ME coupling. These materials are fabricated by either gluing the individual components to each other or mixing the magnetic material to a piezoelectric matrix. The most extensively investigated material combinations are Lead Zirconate Titanate (PZT) or Lead Magnesium Niobate-Lead Titanate (PMNPT) as the piezoelectric, and Terfenol-D as the magnetostrictive phase and the coupling is measured in different configurations like transverse, longitudinal and inplane longitudinal. Fabrication of a lead free multiferroic composite with a strong ME response is the need of the hour from a device application point of view. The multilayer structure is expected to be far superior to bulk composites in terms of ME coupling since the piezoelectric (PE) layer can easily be poled electrically to enhance the piezoelectricity and hence the ME effect. The giant magnetostriction reported in the Co-Fe thin films makes it an ideal candidate for the ferromagnetic component and BaTiO3 which is a well known ferroelectric material with improved piezoelectric properties as the ferroelectric component. The multilayer structure of BaTiO3- CoFe- BaTiO3 is an ideal system to understand the underlying fundamental physics behind the ME coupling mechanism. Giant magnetoelectric coupling coefficient is anticipated for these multilayer structures of BaTiO3-CoFe-BaTiO3. This makes it an ideal candidate for cantilever applications in magnetic MEMS/NEMS devices. SrTiO3 is an incipient ferroelectric material which is paraelectric up to 0K in its pure unstressed form. Recently few studies showed that ferroelectricity can be induced by application of stress or by chemical / isotopic substitution. The search for room temperature magnetoelectric coupling in SrTiO3-CoFe-SrTiO3 multilayer structures is of fundamental interest. Yet another motivation of the present work is to fabricate multilayer structures consisting of CoFe/ BaTiO3 and CoFe/ SrTiO3 for possible giant ME coupling coefficient (MECC) values. These are lead free and hence promising candidates for MEMS applications. The elucidation of mechanism for the giant MECC also will be the part of the objective of this investigation.

Szenarien zur zukünftigen Stromversorgung, kostenoptimierte Variationen zur Versorgung Europas und seiner Nachbarn mit Strom aus erneuerbaren Energien

Sowohl die Ressourcenproblematik als auch die drohenden Ausmaße der Klimaänderung lassen einen Umstieg auf andere Energiequellen langfristig unausweichlich erscheinen und mittelfristig als dringend geboten. Unabhängig von der Frage, auf welchem Niveau sich der Energiebedarf stabilisieren lässt, bleibt dabei zu klären, welche Möglichkeiten sich aus technischer und wirtschaftlicher Sicht in Zukunft zur Deckung unseres Energiebedarfs anbieten. Eine aussichtsreiche Option besteht in der Nutzung regenerativer Energien in ihrer ganzen Vielfalt. Die Arbeit "Szenarien zur zukünftigen Stromversorgung, kostenoptimierte Variationen zur Versorgung Europas und seiner Nachbarn mit Strom aus erneuerbaren Energien" konzentriert sich mit der Stromversorgung auf einen Teilaspekt der Energieversorgung, der zunehmend an Wichtigkeit gewinnt und als ein Schlüssel zur nachhaltigen Energieversorgung interpretiert werden kann. Die Stromversorgung ist heute weltweit für etwa die Hälfte des anthropogenen CO2-Ausstoßes verantwortlich. In dieser Arbeit wurden anhand verschiedener Szenarien Möglichkeiten einer weitgehend CO2–neutralen Stromversorgung für Europa und seine nähere Umgebung untersucht, wobei das Szenariogebiet etwa 1,1 Mrd. Einwohner und einen Stromverbrauch von knapp 4000 TWh/a umfasst. Dabei wurde untersucht, wie die Stromversorgung aufgebaut sein sollte, damit sie möglichst kostengünstig verwirklicht werden kann. Diese Frage wurde beispielsweise für Szenarien untersucht, in denen ausschließlich heute marktverfügbare Techniken berücksichtigt wurden. Auch der Einfluss der Nutzung einiger neuer Technologien, die bisher noch in Entwicklung sind, auf die optimale Gestaltung der Stromversorgung, wurde anhand einiger Beispiele untersucht. Die Konzeption der zukünftigen Stromversorgung sollte dabei nach Möglichkeit objektiven Kriterien gehorchen, die auch die Vergleichbarkeit verschiedener Versorgungsansätze gewährleisten. Dafür wurde ein Optimierungsansatz gewählt, mit dessen Hilfe sowohl bei der Konfiguration als auch beim rechnerischen Betrieb des Stromversorgungssystems weitgehend auf subjektive Entscheidungsprozesse verzichtet werden kann. Die Optimierung hatte zum Ziel, für die definierte möglichst realitätsnahe Versorgungsaufgabe den idealen Kraftwerks- und Leitungspark zu bestimmen, der eine kostenoptimale Stromversorgung gewährleistet. Als Erzeugungsoptionen werden dabei u.a. die Nutzung Regenerativer Energien durch Wasserkraftwerke, Windenergiekonverter, Fallwindkraftwerke, Biomassekraftwerke sowie solare und geothermische Kraftwerke berücksichtigt. Abhängig von den gewählten Randbedingungen ergaben sich dabei unterschiedliche Szenarien. Das Ziel der Arbeit war, mit Hilfe unterschiedlicher Szenarien eine breite Basis als Entscheidungsgrundlage für zukünftige politische Weichenstellungen zu schaffen. Die Szenarien zeigen Optionen für eine zukünftige Gestaltung der Stromversorgung auf, machen Auswirkungen verschiedener – auch politischer – Rahmenbedingungen deutlich und stellen so die geforderte Entscheidungsgrundlage bereit. Als Grundlage für die Erstellung der Szenarien mussten die verschiedenen Potentiale erneuerbarer Energien in hoher zeitlicher und räumlicher Auflösung ermittelt werden, mit denen es erstmals möglich war, die Fragen einer großräumigen regenerativen Stromversorgung ohne ungesicherte Annahmen anhand einer verlässlichen Datengrundlage anzugehen. Auch die Charakteristika der verschiedensten Energiewandlungs- und Transportsysteme mussten studiert werden und sind wie deren Kosten und die verschiedenen Potentiale in der vorliegenden Arbeit ausführlich diskutiert. Als Ausgangsszenario und Bezugspunkt dient ein konservatives Grundszenario. Hierbei handelt es sich um ein Szenario für eine Stromversorgung unter ausschließlicher Nutzung erneuerbarer Energien, die wiederum ausschließlich auf heute bereits entwickelte Technologien zurückgreift und dabei für alle Komponenten die heutigen Kosten zugrundelegt. Dieses Grundszenario ist dementsprechend auch als eine Art konservative Worst-Case-Abschätzung für unsere Zukunftsoptionen bei der regenerativen Stromversorgung zu verstehen. Als Ergebnis der Optimierung basiert die Stromversorgung beim Grundszenario zum größten Teil auf der Stromproduktion aus Windkraft. Biomasse und schon heute bestehende Wasserkraft übernehmen den überwiegenden Teil der Backup-Aufgaben innerhalb des – mit leistungsstarker HGÜ (Hochspannungs–Gleichstrom–Übertragung) verknüpften – Stromversorgungsgebiets. Die Stromgestehungskosten liegen mit 4,65 €ct / kWh sehr nahe am heute Üblichen. Sie liegen niedriger als die heutigen Preisen an der Strombörse. In allen Szenarien – außer relativ teuren, restriktiv ”dezentralen” unter Ausschluss großräumig länderübergreifenden Stromtransports – spielt der Stromtransport eine wichtige Rolle. Er wird genutzt, um Ausgleichseffekte bei der dargebotsabhängigen Stromproduktion aus erneuerbaren Quellen zu realisieren, gute kostengünstige Potentiale nutzbar zu machen und um die Speicherwasserkraft sowie die dezentral genutzte Biomasse mit ihrer Speicherfähigkeit für großräumige Backup-Aufgaben zu erschließen. Damit erweist sich der Stromtransport als einer der Schlüssel zu einer kostengünstigen Stromversorgung. Dies wiederum kann als Handlungsempfehlung bei politischen Weichenstellungen interpretiert werden, die demnach gezielt auf internationale Kooperation im Bereich der Nutzung erneuerbarer Energien setzen und insbesondere den großräumigen Stromtransport mit einbeziehen sollten. Die Szenarien stellen detaillierte und verlässliche Grundlagen für wichtige politische und technologische Zukunftsentscheidungen zur Verfügung. Sie zeigen, dass bei internationaler Kooperation selbst bei konservativen Annahmen eine rein regenerative Stromversorgung möglich ist, die wirtschaftlich ohne Probleme zu realisieren wäre und verweisen den Handlungsbedarf in den Bereich der Politik. Eine wesentliche Aufgabe der Politik läge darin, die internationale Kooperation zu organisieren und Instrumente für eine Umgestaltung der Stromversorgung zu entwickeln. Dabei kann davon ausgegangen werden, dass nicht nur ein sinnvoller Weg zu einer CO2–neutralen Stromversorgung beschritten würde, sondern sich darüber hinaus ausgezeichnete Entwicklungsperspektiven für die ärmeren Nachbarstaaten der EU und Europas eröffnen.

A natureza na lineal dos funcionamentos inferenciais: um estudo empírico com base no humor gráfico

Analisa-se se os funcionamentos inferenciais têm uma estrutura própria dos sistemas dinâmicos não lineais, estudados a partir de quatro gráficas humorísticas. Os primeiros resultados com o tratamento estadístico lineal de K-medias projetam a presencia de perfis de diferentes funcionamentos inferenciais em função das diferentes piadas. Os resultados com a técnica da wavelet, proveniente dos sistemas dinâmicos não lineais, mostram patrões dos funcionamentos inferenciais que dão conta de sua natureza multifractal, sem uma sequencialidade fixa e sem uma organização aparente. Isto implica que é necessário revisar a concepção de estádios sequenciais fixos como os que dominam os estudos de desenvolvimento cognitivo.

Conservative upwind difference schemes for the Euler equations for real gas flows in a duct

In a recent paper [P. Glaister, Conservative upwind difference schemes for compressible flows in a Duct, Comput. Math. Appl. 56 (2008) 1787–1796] numerical schemes based on a conservative linearisation are presented for the Euler equations governing compressible flows of an ideal gas in a duct of variable cross-section, and in [P. Glaister, Conservative upwind difference schemes for compressible flows of a real gas, Comput. Math. Appl. 48 (2004) 469–480] schemes based on this philosophy are presented for real gas flows with slab symmetry. In this paper we seek to extend these ideas to encompass compressible flows of real gases in a duct. This will incorporate the handling of additional terms arising out of the variable geometry and the non-ideal nature of the gas.

Linear-wavelet models applied to the identification of a two-link manipulator

This paper shows that a wavelet network and a linear term can be advantageously combined for the purpose of non linear system identification. The theoretical foundation of this approach is laid by proving that radial wavelets are orthogonal to linear functions. A constructive procedure for building such nonlinear regression structures, termed linear-wavelet models, is described. For illustration, sim ulation data are used to identify a model for a two-link robotic manipulator. The results show that the introduction of wavelets does improve the prediction ability of a linear model.