Natural disasters and clientelism: the case of floods and landslides in Colombia

What are the effects of natural disasters on electoral results? Some authors claim that catastrophes have a negative effect on the survival of leaders in a democracy because voters have a propensity to punish politicians for not preventing or poorly handling a crisis. In contrast, this paper finds that these events might be beneficial for leaders. Disasters are linked to leader survival through clientelism: they generate an in-flow of resources in the form of aid, which increase money for buying votes. Analyzing the rainy season of 2010-2011 in Colombia, considered its worst disaster in history, I use a difference-in-differences strategy to show that in the local election incumbent parties benefited from the disaster. The result is robust to different specifications and alternative explanations. Moreover, places receiving more aid and those with judicial evidence of vote-buying irregularities, are more likely to reelect the incumbent, supporting the mechanism proposed by this paper.

Stock return comovements and integration within the Latin American integrated market

Financial integration has been pursued aggressively across the globe in the last fifty years; however, there is no conclusive evidence on the diversification gains (or losses) of such efforts. These gains (or losses) are related to the degree of comovements and synchronization among increasingly integrated global markets. We quantify the degree of comovements within the integrated Latin American market (MILA). We use dynamic correlation models to quantify comovements across securities as well as a direct integration measure. Our results show an increase in comovements when we look at the country indexes, however, the increase in the trend of correlation is previous to the institutional efforts to establish an integrated market in the region. On the other hand, when we look at sector indexes and an integration measure, we find a decreased in comovements among a representative sample of securities form the integrated market.

Natural resource windfalls and efficiency of local government expenditures: evidence from Peru

We study the role of natural resource windfalls in explaining the efficiency of public expenditures. Using a rich dataset of expenditures and public good provision for 1,836 municipalities in Peru for period 2001-2010, we estimate a non-monotonic relationship between the efficiency of public good provision and the level of natural resource transfers. Local governments that were extremely favored by the boom of mineral prices were more efficient in using fiscal windfalls whereas those benefited with modest transfers were more inefficient. These results can be explained by the increase in political competition associated with the boom. However, the fact that increases in efficiency were related to reductions in public good provision casts doubts about the beneficial effects of political competition in promoting efficiency.

A new efficient approach to the direct restricted active space self-consistent field method

An implicitly parallel method for integral-block driven restricted active space self-consistent field (RASSCF) algorithms is presented. The approach is based on a model space representation of the RAS active orbitals with an efficient expansion of the model subspaces. The applicability of the method is demonstrated with a RASSCF investigation of the first two excited states of indole

One- and two-center physical space partitioning of the energy in the density functional theory

A conceptually new approach is introduced for the decomposition of the molecular energy calculated at the density functional theory level of theory into sum of one- and two-atomic energy components, and is realized in the "fuzzy atoms" framework. (Fuzzy atoms mean that the three-dimensional physical space is divided into atomic regions having no sharp boundaries but exhibiting a continuous transition from one to another.) The new scheme uses the new concept of "bond order density" to calculate the diatomic exchange energy components and gives them unexpectedly close to the values calculated by the exact (Hartree-Fock) exchange for the same Kohn-Sham orbitals

La evaluación de la reducción de amenazas en el Parque Natural de la Zona Volcánica de la Garrotxa (Girona)

En este artículo se presenta la metodología y los resultados derivados de la aplicación de una adaptación del denominado modelo de evaluación de reducción de amenazas (Threat Reduction Assesment) en el Parque Natural de la Zona Volcánica de la Garrotxa (PNZVG). En definitiva, se pretende valorar la efectividad de la gestión a partir del grado de reducción de amenazas en el PNZVG. El estudio se realizó a partir de la elaboración de una evaluación externa e independiente, que ha contado a la vez con una estrecha colaboración de los órganos gestores y rectores del Parque, así como con una activa participación de distintos agentes sociales clave. Se concluye que, después de veinticinco años de existencia del Parque, muchas de las amenazas iniciales sólo se han reducido de forma modesta e incluso a partir del índice adaptado, considerado un enfoque más realista; con lo cual se llega a la preocupante conclusión de que algunas de las amenazas más importantes se han incrementado

Optimal management of natural resources. Accounting for heterogeneity

Dynamic optimization methods have become increasingly important over the last years in economics. Within the dynamic optimization techniques employed, optimal control has emerged as the most powerful tool for the theoretical economic analysis. However, there is the need to advance further and take account that many dynamic economic processes are, in addition, dependent on some other parameter different than time. One can think of relaxing the assumption of a representative (homogeneous) agent in macro- and micro-economic applications allowing for heterogeneity among the agents. For instance, the optimal adaptation and diffusion of a new technology over time, may depend on the age of the person that adopted the new technology. Therefore, the economic models must take account of heterogeneity conditions within the dynamic framework. This thesis intends to accomplish two goals. The first goal is to analyze and revise existing environmental policies that focus on defining the optimal management of natural resources over time, by taking account of the heterogeneity of environmental conditions. Thus, the thesis makes a policy orientated contribution in the field of environmental policy by defining the necessary changes to transform an environmental policy based on the assumption of homogeneity into an environmental policy which takes account of heterogeneity. As a result the newly defined environmental policy will be more efficient and likely also politically more acceptable since it is tailored more specifically to the heterogeneous environmental conditions. Additionally to its policy orientated contribution, this thesis aims making a methodological contribution by applying a new optimization technique for solving problems where the control variables depend on two or more arguments --- the so-called two-stage solution approach ---, and by applying a numerical method --- the Escalator Boxcar Train Method --- for solving distributed optimal control problems, i.e., problems where the state variables, in addition to the control variables, depend on two or more arguments. Chapter 2 presents a theoretical framework to determine optimal resource allocation over time for the production of a good by heterogeneous producers, who generate a stock externalit and derives government policies to modify the behavior of competitive producers in order to achieve optimality. Chapter 3 illustrates the method in a more specific context, and integrates the aspects of quality and time, presenting a theoretical model that allows to determine the socially optimal outcome over time and space for the problem of waterlogging in irrigated agricultural production. Chapter 4 of this thesis concentrates on forestry resources and analyses the optimal selective-logging regime of a size-distributed forest.

A Bayesian approach to estimate sensible and latent heat over vegetated land surface

Sensible and latent heat fluxes are often calculated from bulk transfer equations combined with the energy balance. For spatial estimates of these fluxes, a combination of remotely sensed and standard meteorological data from weather stations is used. The success of this approach depends on the accuracy of the input data and on the accuracy of two variables in particular: aerodynamic and surface conductance. This paper presents a Bayesian approach to improve estimates of sensible and latent heat fluxes by using a priori estimates of aerodynamic and surface conductance alongside remote measurements of surface temperature. The method is validated for time series of half-hourly measurements in a fully grown maize field, a vineyard and a forest. It is shown that the Bayesian approach yields more accurate estimates of sensible and latent heat flux than traditional methods.

A Bayesian approach for multi-model downscaling: Seasonal forecasting of regional rainfall and river flows in South America

This study addresses three issues: spatial downscaling, calibration, and combination of seasonal predictions produced by different coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. It examines the feasibility Of using a Bayesian procedure for producing combined, well-calibrated downscaled seasonal rainfall forecasts for two regions in South America and river flow forecasts for the Parana river in the south of Brazil and the Tocantins river in the north of Brazil. These forecasts are important for national electricity generation management and planning. A Bayesian procedure, referred to here as forecast assimilation, is used to combine and calibrate the rainfall predictions produced by three climate models. Forecast assimilation is able to improve the skill of 3-month lead November-December-January multi-model rainfall predictions over the two South American regions. Improvements are noted in forecast seasonal mean values and uncertainty estimates. River flow forecasts are less skilful than rainfall forecasts. This is partially because natural river flow is a derived quantity that is sensitive to hydrological as well as meteorological processes, and to human intervention in the form of reservoir management.

A hierarchical distributed approach for mining molecular fragments

Recently, two approaches have been introduced that distribute the molecular fragment mining problem. The first approach applies a master/worker topology, the second approach, a completely distributed peer-to-peer system, solves the scalability problem due to the bottleneck at the master node. However, in many real world scenarios the participating computing nodes cannot communicate directly due to administrative policies such as security restrictions. Thus, potential computing power is not accessible to accelerate the mining run. To solve this shortcoming, this work introduces a hierarchical topology of computing resources, which distributes the management over several levels and adapts to the natural structure of those multi-domain architectures. The most important aspect is the load balancing scheme, which has been designed and optimized for the hierarchical structure. The approach allows dynamic aggregation of heterogenous computing resources and is applied to wide area network scenarios.

Alkene-arene meta photocycloadditions with a four-carbon-atom tether: efficient approach toward the polycyclic ring systems of aphidicolin and stemodinone

At the end of its tether! The fusion of a six-membered ring onto the four-carbon-atom tether of substrate 1 provides an efficient approach toward the polycyclic ring systems of the natural products aphidicolin and stemodinone. The reaction represents a unique example of a preference for product formation from an endo exciplex in an intramolecular system (exo:endo 2:3=1.0:1.2).

13C-2H correlation NMR spectroscopy studies of the in vivo transformations of natural products from Artemisia annua

13C-2H correlation NMR spectroscopy (13C-2H COSY) permits the identification of 13C and 2H nuclei which are connected to one another by a single chemical bond via the sizeable 1JCD coupling constant. The practical development of this technique is described using a 13C-2H COSY pulse sequence which is derived from the classical 13C-1H correlation experiment. An example is given of the application of 13C-2H COSY to the study of the biogenesis of natural products from the anti-malarial plant Artemisia annua, using a doubly-labelled precursor molecule. Although the biogenesis of artemisinin, the anti-malarial principle from this species, has been extensively studied over the past twenty years there is still no consensus as to the true biosynthetic route to this important natural product – indeed, some published experimental results are directly contradictory. One possible reason for this confusion may be the ease with which some of the metabolites from A. annua undergo spontaneous autoxidation, as exemplified by our recent in vitro studies of the spontaneous autoxidation of dihydroartemisinic acid, and the application of 13C-2H COSY to this biosynthetic problem has been important in helping to mitigate against such processes. In this in vivo application of 13C-2H COSY, [15-13C2H3]-dihydroartemisinic acid (the doubly-labelled analogue of the natural product from this species which was obtained through synthesis) was fed to A. annua plants and was shown to be converted into several natural products which have been described previously, including artemisinin. It is proposed that all of these transformations occurred via a tertiary hydroperoxide intermediate, which is derived from dihyroartemisinic acid. This intermediate was observed directly in this feeding experiment by the 13C-2H COSY technique; its observation by more traditional procedures (e.g., chromatographic separation, followed by spectroscopic analysis of the purified product) would have been difficult owing to the instability of the hydroperoxide group (as had been established previously by our in vitro studies of the spontaneous autoxidation of dihydroartemisinic acid). This same hydroperoxide has been reported as the initial product of the spontaneous autoxidation of dihydroartemisinic acid in our previous in vitro studies. Its observation in this feeding experiment by the 13C-2H COSY technique, a procedure which requires the minimum of sample manipulation in order to achieve a reliable identification of metabolites (based on both 13C and 2H chemical shifts at the 15-position), provides the best possible evidence for its status as a genuine biosynthetic intermediate, rather than merely as an artifact of the experimental procedure.

Noncompetitive plasma biokinetics of deuterium-labeled natural and synthetic alpha-tocopherol in healthy men with an apoE4 genotype

Previous studies comparing the biokinetics of deuterated natural (RRR) and synthetic (all-rac) α-tocopherol (vitamin E) used a simultaneous ingestion or competitive uptake approach and reported relative bioavailability ratios close to 2:1, higher than the accepted biopotency ratio of 1.36:1. The aim of the current study was to compare the biokinetics of deuterated natural and synthetic vitamin E using a noncompetitive uptake model both before and after vitamin E supplementation in a distinct population. Healthy men (n = 10) carrying the apolipoprotein (apo)E4 genotype completed a randomized crossover study, comprised of two 4-wk treatments with 400 mg/d (RRR-α-tocopheryl and all-rac-α-tocopheryl acetate) with a 12-wk washout period between treatments. Before and after each treatment period, the subjects consumed a capsule containing 150 mg deuterated α-tocopheryl acetate in either the PRR or all-rac form depending on their treatment regimen. Blood was obtained up to 48 h after ingestion, and tocopherols analyzed by LC/MS. After deuterated all-rac administration, plasma deuterated tocopherol maximum concentrations and area under the concentration vs. time curves (AUC) were lower than those following RRR administration. The RRR:all-rac ratios determined from the deuterated biokinetic profiles (maximum concentration; C-max) and AUCs were 1.35:1 &PLUSMN; 0.17 and 1.33:1 &PLUSMN; 0.18, respectively. The 4-wk supplementation with either PRR or all-rac significantly increased plasma a-tocopherol concentrations (P < 0.001), but decreased the plasma response to newly absorbed deuterated RRR or all-rac α-tocopherol. Using a noncompetitive uptake approach, the relative bioavailability of natural to synthetic vitamin E in apoE4 males was close to the currently accepted biopotency ratio of 1.36:1.

Hydrogen bond-induced pair formation of glycine on the chiral Cu{531} surface

Enantio-specific interactions on intrinsically chiral or chirally modified surfaces can be identified experimentally via comparison of the adsorption geometries of similar nonchiral and chiral molecules. Information about the effects of substrate-related and in interactions on the adsorption geometry of glycine, the only natural nonchiral amino acid, is therefore important for identifying enantio-specific interactions of larger chiral amino acids. We have studied the long- and short-range adsorption geometry and bonding properties of glycine on the intrinsically chiral Cu{531} surface with low-energy electron diffraction, near-edge X-ray absorption One structure spectroscopy, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, and temperature-programmed desorption. For coverages between 0.15 and 0.33 ML (saturated chemisorbed layer) and temperatures between 300 and 430 K, glycine molecules adsorb in two different azimuthal orientations, which are associated with adsorption sites on the {110} and {311} microfacets of Cu{531}. Both types of adsorption sites allow a triangular footprint with surface bonds through the two oxygen atoms and the nitrogen atom. The occupation of the two adsorption sites is equal for all coverages, which can be explained by pair formation due to similar site-specific adsorption energies and the possibility of forming hydrogen bonds between molecules on adjacent {110} and {311} sites. This is not the ease for alanine and points toward higher site specificity in the case of alanine, which is eventually responsible for the enantiomeric differences observed for the alanine system.

In vitro fermentation of potential prebiotic flours from natural sources: impact on the human colonic microbiota and metabolome

Scope: Fibers and prebiotics represent a useful dietary approach for modulating the human gut microbiome. Therefore, aim of the present study was to investigate the impact of four flours (wholegrain rye, wholegrain wheat, chickpeas and lentils 50:50, and barley milled grains), characterized by a naturally high content in dietary fibers, on the intestinal microbiota composition and metabolomic output. Methods and results: A validated three-stage continuous fermentative system simulating the human colon was used to resemble the complexity and diversity of the intestinal microbiota. Fluorescence in situ hybridization was used to evaluate the impact of the flours on the composition of the microbiota, while small-molecule metabolome was assessed by NMR analysis followed by multivariate pattern recognition techniques. HT29 cell-growth curve assay was used to evaluate the modulatory properties of the bacterial metabolites on the growth of intestinal epithelial cells. All the four flours showed positive modulations of the microbiota composition and metabolic activity. Furthermore, none of the flours influenced the growth-modulatory potential of the metabolites toward HT29 cells. Conclusion: Our findings support the utilization of the tested ingredients in the development of a variety of potentially prebiotic food products aimed at improving gastrointestinal health.