Urban food planning, city logistics and sustainability: the role of the wholesale produce market. The cases of Parma and Bologna food hubs.

At global level, the population is increasingly concentrating in the cities. In Europe, around 75% of the population lives in urban areas and, according to the European Environmental Agency (2010), urban population is foreseen to increase up to 80 % by 2020. At the same time, the quality of life in the cities is declining and urban pollution keeps increasing in terms of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, waste, noise, and lack of greenery. Many of European cities struggle to cope with social, economic and environmental problems resulting from pressures such as overcrowding or decline, social inequity, health problems related to food security and pollution. Nowadays local authorities try to solve these problems related to the environmental sustainability through various urban logistics measures, which directly and indirectly affect the urban food supply system, thus an integrated approach including freight transport and food provisioning policies issues is needed. This research centres on the urban food transport system and its impact on the city environmental sustainability. The main question that drives the research analysis is "How the urban food distribution system affects the ecological sustainability in modern cities?" The research analyses the city logistics project for food transport implemented in Parma, Italy, by the wholesale produce market. The case study investigates the renewed role of the wholesale market in the urban food supply chain as commercial and logistic operator, referring to the concept of food hub. Then, a preliminary analysis on the urban food transport for the city of Bologna is presented. The research aims at suggesting a methodological framework to estimate the urban food demand, the urban food supply and to assess the urban food transport performance, in order to identify external costs indicators that help policymakers in evaluating the environmental sustainability of different logistics measures

Wireless Sensor Networks for Monitoring Applications

Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) are getting wide-spread attention since they became easily accessible with their low costs. One of the key elements of WSNs is distributed sensing. When the precise location of a signal of interest is unknown across the monitored region, distributing many sensors randomly/uniformly may yield with a better representation of the monitored random process than a traditional sensor deployment. In a typical WSN application the data sensed by nodes is usually sent to one (or more) central device, denoted as sink, which collects the information and can either act as a gateway towards other networks (e.g. Internet), where data can be stored, or be processed in order to command the actuators to perform special tasks. In such a scenario, a dense sensor deployment may create bottlenecks when many nodes competing to access the channel. Even though there are mitigation methods on the channel access, concurrent (parallel) transmissions may occur. In this study, always on the scope of monitoring applications, the involved development progress of two industrial projects with dense sensor deployments (eDIANA Project funded by European Commission and Centrale Adritica Project funded by Coop Italy) and the measurement results coming from several different test-beds evoked the necessity of a mathematical analysis on concurrent transmissions. To the best of our knowledge, in the literature there is no mathematical analysis of concurrent transmission in 2.4 GHz PHY of IEEE 802.15.4. In the thesis, experience stories of eDIANA and Centrale Adriatica Projects and a mathematical analysis of concurrent transmissions starting from O-QPSK chip demodulation to the packet reception rate with several different types of theoretical demodulators, are presented. There is a very good agreement between the measurements so far in the literature and the mathematical analysis.

Marine biodiversity survey in the Northern Red Sea: a large-scale monitoring carried out in collaboration with volunteer divers

Concerns over global change and its effect on coral reef survivorship have highlighted the need for long-term datasets and proxy records, to interpret environmental trends and inform policymakers. Citizen science programs have showed to be a valid method for collecting data, reducing financial and time costs for institutions. This study is based on the elaboration of data collected by recreational divers and its main purpose is to evaluate changes in the state of coral reef biodiversity in the Red Sea over a long term period and validate the volunteer-based monitoring method. Volunteers recreational divers completed a questionnaire after each dive, recording the presence of 72 animal taxa and negative reef conditions. Comparisons were made between records from volunteers and independent records from a marine biologist who performed the same dive at the same time. A total of 500 volunteers were tested in 78 validation trials. Relative values of accuracy, reliability and similarity seem to be comparable to those performed by volunteer divers on precise transects in other projects, or in community-based terrestrial monitoring. 9301 recreational divers participated in the monitoring program, completing 23,059 survey questionnaires in a 5-year period. The volunteer-sightings-based index showed significant differences between the geographical areas. The area of Hurghada is distinguished by a medium-low biodiversity index, heavily damaged by a not controlled anthropic exploitation. Coral reefs along the Ras Mohammed National Park at Sharm el Sheikh, conversely showed high biodiversity index. The detected pattern seems to be correlated with the conservation measures adopted. In our experience and that of other research institutes, citizen science can integrate conventional methods and significantly reduce costs and time. Involving recreational divers we were able to build a large data set, covering a wide geographic area. The main limitation remains the difficulty of obtaining an homogeneous spatial sampling distribution.

Understanding Recent Developments in the Turkish Labor Market: Empirical Essays with a Gender Focus

This dissertation comprises three essays on the Turkish labor market. The first essay characterizes the distinctive characteristics of the Turkish labor market with the aim of understanding the factors lying behind its long-standing poor performance relative to its European counterparts. The analysis is based on a cross-country comparison among selected European Union countries. Among all the indicators of labor market flexibility, non-wage cost rigidities are regarded as one of the most important factors in slowing down employment creation in Turkey. The second essay focuses on an employment subsidy policy which introduces a reduction in non-wage costs through social security premium incentives granted to women and young men. Exploiting a difference-in-difference-in differences strategy, I evaluate the effectiveness of this policy in creating employment for the target group. The results, net of the recent crisis effect, suggest that the policy accounts for a 1.4% to 1.6% increase in the probability of being hired for women aged 30 to 34 above men of the same age group in the periods shortly after the announcement of the policy. In the third essay of the dissertation, I analyze the labor supply response of married women to their husbands' job losses (AWE). I empirically test the hypothesis of added worker effect for the global economic crisis of 2008 by relying on the Turkey context. Identification is achieved by exploiting the exogenous variation in the output of male-dominated sectors hard-hit by the crisis and the gender-segmentation that characterizes the Turkish labor market. Findings based on the instrumental variable approach suggest that the added worker effect explains up to 64% of the observed increase in female labor force participation in Turkey. The size of the effect depends on how long it takes for wives to adjust their labor supply to their husbands' job losses.

Stochastic foundations of dynamic trade and labor market models

This dissertation consists of three self-contained papers that are related to two main topics. In particular, the first and third studies focus on labor market modeling, whereas the second essay presents a dynamic international trade setup.rnrnIn Chapter "Expenses on Labor Market Reforms during Transitional Dynamics", we investigate the arising costs of a potential labor market reform from a government point of view. To analyze various effects of unemployment benefits system changes, this chapter develops a dynamic model with heterogeneous employed and unemployed workers.rn rnIn Chapter "Endogenous Markup Distributions", we study how markup distributions adjust when a closed economy opens up. In order to perform this analysis, we first present a closed-economy general-equilibrium industry dynamics model, where firms enter and exit markets, and then extend our analysis to the open-economy case.rn rnIn Chapter "Unemployment in the OECD - Pure Chance or Institutions?", we examine effects of aggregate shocks on the distribution of the unemployment rates in OECD member countries.rn rnIn all three chapters we model systems that behave randomly and operate on stochastic processes. We therefore exploit stochastic calculus that establishes clear methodological links between the chapters.

Predicting and monitoring cancer treatment response with diffusion-weighted MRI

An imaging biomarker that would provide for an early quantitative metric of clinical treatment response in cancer patients would provide for a paradigm shift in cancer care. Currently, nonimage based clinical outcome metrics include morphology, clinical, and laboratory parameters, however, these are obtained relatively late following treatment. Diffusion-weighted MRI (DW-MRI) holds promise for use as a cancer treatment response biomarker as it is sensitive to macromolecular and microstructural changes which can occur at the cellular level earlier than anatomical changes during therapy. Studies have shown that successful treatment of many tumor types can be detected using DW-MRI as an early increase in the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values. Additionally, low pretreatment ADC values of various tumors are often predictive of better outcome. These capabilities, once validated, could provide for an important opportunity to individualize therapy thereby minimizing unnecessary systemic toxicity associated with ineffective therapies with the additional advantage of improving overall patient health care and associated costs. In this report, we provide a brief technical overview of DW-MRI acquisition protocols, quantitative image analysis approaches and review studies which have implemented DW-MRI for the purpose of early prediction of cancer treatment response.

Monitoring and Modeling of the Hydraulic and Sediment Processes at In-Stream Restoration Structures in the Vicinity of a Bridge Crossing

The long-term performance of infrastructure depends on reliable and sustainable designs. Many of Pennsylvania’s streams experience sediment transport problems that increase maintenance costs and lower structural integrity of bridge crossings. A stream restoration project is one common mitigation measure used to correct such problems at bridge crossings. Specifically, in an attempt to alleviate aggradation problems with the Old Route 15 Bridge crossing on White Deer Creek, in White Deer, PA, two in-stream structures (rock cross vanes) and several bank stabilization features were installed along with a complete channel redevelopment. The objectives of this research were to characterize the hydraulic and sediment transport processes occurring at the White Deer Creek site, and to investigate, through physical and mathematical modeling, the use of instream restoration structures. The goal is to be able to use the results of this study to prevent aggradation or other sediment related problems in the vicinity of bridges through improved design considerations. Monitoring and modeling indicate that the study site on White Deer Creek is currently unstable, experiencing general channel down-cutting, bank erosion, and several local areas of increased aggradation and degradation of the channel bed. An in-stream structure installed upstream of the Old Route 15 Bridge failed by sediment burial caused by the high sediment load that White Deer Creek is transporting as well as the backwater effects caused by the bridge crossing. The in-stream structure installed downstream of the Old Route 15 Bridge is beginning to fail because of the alignment of the structure with the approach direction of flow from upstream of the restoration structure.

Price risk management in the copper market using commodity derivatives and options strategies

Metals price risk management is a key issue related to financial risk in metal markets because of uncertainty of commodity price fluctuation, exchange rate, interest rate changes and huge price risk either to metals’ producers or consumers. Thus, it has been taken into account by all participants in metal markets including metals’ producers, consumers, merchants, banks, investment funds, speculators, traders and so on. Managing price risk provides stable income for both metals’ producers and consumers, so it increases the chance that a firm will invest in attractive projects. The purpose of this research is to evaluate risk management strategies in the copper market. The main tools and strategies of price risk management are hedging and other derivatives such as futures contracts, swaps and options contracts. Hedging is a transaction designed to reduce or eliminate price risk. Derivatives are financial instruments, whose returns are derived from other financial instruments and they are commonly used for managing financial risks. Although derivatives have been around in some form for centuries, their growth has accelerated rapidly during the last 20 years. Nowadays, they are widely used by financial institutions, corporations, professional investors, and individuals. This project is focused on the over-the-counter (OTC) market and its products such as exotic options, particularly Asian options. The first part of the project is a description of basic derivatives and risk management strategies. In addition, this part discusses basic concepts of spot and futures (forward) markets, benefits and costs of risk management and risks and rewards of positions in the derivative markets. The second part considers valuations of commodity derivatives. In this part, the options pricing model DerivaGem is applied to Asian call and put options on London Metal Exchange (LME) copper because it is important to understand how Asian options are valued and to compare theoretical values of the options with their market observed values. Predicting future trends of copper prices is important and would be essential to manage market price risk successfully. Therefore, the third part is a discussion about econometric commodity models. Based on this literature review, the fourth part of the project reports the construction and testing of an econometric model designed to forecast the monthly average price of copper on the LME. More specifically, this part aims at showing how LME copper prices can be explained by means of a simultaneous equation structural model (two-stage least squares regression) connecting supply and demand variables. A simultaneous econometric model for the copper industry is built: {█(Q_t^D=e^((-5.0485))∙P_((t-1))^((-0.1868) )∙〖GDP〗_t^((1.7151) )∙e^((0.0158)∙〖IP〗_t ) @Q_t^S=e^((-3.0785))∙P_((t-1))^((0.5960))∙T_t^((0.1408))∙P_(OIL(t))^((-0.1559))∙〖USDI〗_t^((1.2432))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((-0.0561))@Q_t^D=Q_t^S )┤ P_((t-1))^CU=e^((-2.5165))∙〖GDP〗_t^((2.1910))∙e^((0.0202)∙〖IP〗_t )∙T_t^((-0.1799))∙P_(OIL(t))^((0.1991))∙〖USDI〗_t^((-1.5881))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((0.0717) Where, Q_t^D and Q_t^Sare world demand for and supply of copper at time t respectively. P(t-1) is the lagged price of copper, which is the focus of the analysis in this part. GDPt is world gross domestic product at time t, which represents aggregate economic activity. In addition, industrial production should be considered here, so the global industrial production growth that is noted as IPt is included in the model. Tt is the time variable, which is a useful proxy for technological change. A proxy variable for the cost of energy in producing copper is the price of oil at time t, which is noted as POIL(t ) . USDIt is the U.S. dollar index variable at time t, which is an important variable for explaining the copper supply and copper prices. At last, LIBOR(t-6) is the 6-month lagged 1-year London Inter bank offering rate of interest. Although, the model can be applicable for different base metals' industries, the omitted exogenous variables such as the price of substitute or a combined variable related to the price of substitutes have not been considered in this study. Based on this econometric model and using a Monte-Carlo simulation analysis, the probabilities that the monthly average copper prices in 2006 and 2007 will be greater than specific strike price of an option are defined. The final part evaluates risk management strategies including options strategies, metal swaps and simple options in relation to the simulation results. The basic options strategies such as bull spreads, bear spreads and butterfly spreads, which are created by using both call and put options in 2006 and 2007 are evaluated. Consequently, each risk management strategy in 2006 and 2007 is analyzed based on the day of data and the price prediction model. As a result, applications stemming from this project include valuing Asian options, developing a copper price prediction model, forecasting and planning, and decision making for price risk management in the copper market.

Minimizing residential distribution system operating costs through intelligently scheduled plug-in hybrid electric vehicle charging

Rising fuel prices and environmental concerns are threatening the stability of current electrical grid systems. These factors are pushing the automobile industry towards more effcient, hybrid vehicles. Current trends show petroleum is being edged out in favor of electricity as the main vehicular motive force. The proposed methods create an optimized charging control schedule for all participating Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles in a distribution grid. The optimization will minimize daily operating costs, reduce system losses, and improve power quality. This requires participation from Vehicle-to-Grid capable vehicles, load forecasting, and Locational Marginal Pricing market predictions. Vehicles equipped with bidirectional chargers further improve the optimization results by lowering peak demand and improving power quality.

The Role of Online Platforms for Media Markets – Two‐Dimensional Spatial Competition in a Two‐Sided Market

We analyze the market for online and offline media in a model of two-dimensional spatial competition where media outlets sell content and advertising space. Consumer preferences are distributed along the style and type of news coverage where the distance costs may vary across dimensions. For integrated provision of online and offline platforms we show that entering the online market reduces average profits and may even constitute a prisoner's dilemma. Specialized provision may yield polarization in the style and type dimensions. This is in contrast to the maximum–minimum differentiation result previously established in the literature on multidimensional horizontal competition. We show that maximal differentiation in both dimensions occurs due to the discrete nature of the type dimension and asymmetric advertising markets.

Cost-effectiveness of point-of-care viral load monitoring of antiretroviral therapy in resource-limited settings: mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND Monitoring of HIV viral load in patients on combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) is not generally available in resource-limited settings. We examined the cost-effectiveness of qualitative point-of-care viral load tests (POC-VL) in sub-Saharan Africa. DESIGN Mathematical model based on longitudinal data from the Gugulethu and Khayelitsha township ART programmes in Cape Town, South Africa. METHODS Cohorts of patients on ART monitored by POC-VL, CD4 cell count or clinically were simulated. Scenario A considered the more accurate detection of treatment failure with POC-VL only, and scenario B also considered the effect on HIV transmission. Scenario C further assumed that the risk of virologic failure is halved with POC-VL due to improved adherence. We estimated the change in costs per quality-adjusted life-year gained (incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, ICERs) of POC-VL compared with CD4 and clinical monitoring. RESULTS POC-VL tests with detection limits less than 1000 copies/ml increased costs due to unnecessary switches to second-line ART, without improving survival. Assuming POC-VL unit costs between US$5 and US$20 and detection limits between 1000 and 10,000 copies/ml, the ICER of POC-VL was US$4010-US$9230 compared with clinical and US$5960-US$25540 compared with CD4 cell count monitoring. In Scenario B, the corresponding ICERs were US$2450-US$5830 and US$2230-US$10380. In Scenario C, the ICER ranged between US$960 and US$2500 compared with clinical monitoring and between cost-saving and US$2460 compared with CD4 monitoring. CONCLUSION The cost-effectiveness of POC-VL for monitoring ART is improved by a higher detection limit, by taking the reduction in new HIV infections into account and assuming that failure of first-line ART is reduced due to targeted adherence counselling.

Explaining Variations in Client Extra Costs between Software Projects Offshored to India

Gaining economic benefits from substantially lower labor costs has been reported as a major reason for offshoring labor-intensive information systems services to low-wage countries. However, if wage differences are so high, why is there such a high level of variation in the economic success between offshored IS projects? This study argues that offshore outsourcing involves a number of extra costs for the ^his paper was recommended for acceptance by Associate Guest Editor Erran Carmel. client organization that account for the economic failure of offshore projects. The objective is to disaggregate these extra costs into their constituent parts and to explain why they differ between offshored software projects. The focus is on software development and maintenance projects that are offshored to Indian vendors. A theoretical framework is developed a priori based on transaction cost economics (TCE) and the knowledge-based view of the firm, comple mented by factors that acknowledge the specific offshore context The framework is empirically explored using a multiple case study design including six offshored software projects in a large German financial service institution. The results of our analysis indicate that the client incurs post contractual extra costs for four types of activities: (1) re quirements specification and design, (2) knowledge transfer, (3) control, and (4) coordination. In projects that require a high level of client-specific knowledge about idiosyncratic business processes and software systems, these extra costs were found to be substantially higher than in projects where more general knowledge was needed. Notably, these costs most often arose independently from the threat of oppor tunistic behavior, challenging the predominant TCE logic of market failure. Rather, the client extra costs were parti cularly high in client-specific projects because the effort for managing the consequences of the knowledge asymmetries between client and vendor was particularly high in these projects. Prior experiences of the vendor with related client projects were found to reduce the level of extra costs but could not fully offset the increase in extra costs in highly client-specific projects. Moreover, cultural and geographic distance between client and vendor as well as personnel turnover were found to increase client extra costs. Slight evidence was found, however, that the cost-increasing impact of these factors was also leveraged in projects with a high level of required client-specific knowledge (moderator effect).

The Cost-Effectiveness of Monitoring Strategies for Antiretroviral Therapy of HIV Infected Patients in Resource-Limited Settings: Software Tool.

BACKGROUND The cost-effectiveness of routine viral load (VL) monitoring of HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) depends on various factors that differ between settings and across time. Low-cost point-of-care (POC) tests for VL are in development and may make routine VL monitoring affordable in resource-limited settings. We developed a software tool to study the cost-effectiveness of switching to second-line ART with different monitoring strategies, and focused on POC-VL monitoring. METHODS We used a mathematical model to simulate cohorts of patients from start of ART until death. We modeled 13 strategies (no 2nd-line, clinical, CD4 (with or without targeted VL), POC-VL, and laboratory-based VL monitoring, with different frequencies). We included a scenario with identical failure rates across strategies, and one in which routine VL monitoring reduces the risk of failure. We compared lifetime costs and averted disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER). We developed an Excel tool to update the results of the model for varying unit costs and cohort characteristics, and conducted several sensitivity analyses varying the input costs. RESULTS Introducing 2nd-line ART had an ICER of US$1651-1766/DALY averted. Compared with clinical monitoring, the ICER of CD4 monitoring was US$1896-US$5488/DALY averted and VL monitoring US$951-US$5813/DALY averted. We found no difference between POC- and laboratory-based VL monitoring, except for the highest measurement frequency (every 6 months), where laboratory-based testing was more effective. Targeted VL monitoring was on the cost-effectiveness frontier only if the difference between 1st- and 2nd-line costs remained large, and if we assumed that routine VL monitoring does not prevent failure. CONCLUSION Compared with the less expensive strategies, the cost-effectiveness of routine VL monitoring essentially depends on the cost of 2nd-line ART. Our Excel tool is useful for determining optimal monitoring strategies for specific settings, with specific sex-and age-distributions and unit costs.

What are the metacognitive costs of young children's overconfidence?

Children typically hold very optimistic views of their own skills but so far, only a few studies have investigated possible correlates of the ability to predict performance accurately. Therefore, this study examined the role of individual differences in performance estimation accuracy as a global metacognitive index for different monitoring and control skills (item-level judgments of learning [JOLs] and confidence judgments [CJs]), metacognitive control processes (allocation of study time and control of answers), and executive functions (cognitive flexibility, inhibition, working memory) in 6-year-olds (N=93). The three groups of under estimators, realists and over estimators differed significantly in their monitoring and control abilities: the under estimators outperformed the over estimators by showing a higher discrimination in CJs between correct and incorrect recognition. Also, the under estimators scored higher on the adequate control of incorrectly recognized items. Regarding the interplay of monitoring and control processes, under estimators spent more time studying items with low JOLs, and relied more systematically on their monitoring when controlling their recognition compared to over estimators. At the same time, the three groups did not differ significantly from each other in their executive functions. Overall, results indicate that differences in performance estimation accuracy are systematically related to other global and item-level metacognitive monitoring and control abilities in children as young as six years of age, while no meaningful association between performance estimation accuracy and executive functions was found.