A bet on macro

Equity research report

An equity wealth preservation strategy: Following the macro trend

Financial crisis have happened in the past and will continue to do so in the future. In the most recent 2008 crisis, global equities (as measured by the MSCI ACWI index) lost a staggering 54.2% in USD, on the year. During those periods wealth preservation becomes at the top of most investor’s concerns. The purpose of this paper is to develop a strategy that protects the investment during bear markets and significant market corrections, generates capital appreciation, and that can support Millennium BCP’s Wealth Management Unit on their asset allocation procedures. This strategy extends the Dual Momentum approach introduced by Gary Antonacci (2014) in two ways. First, the investable set of securities in the equities space increases from two to four. Besides the US it will comprise the Japanese, European (excl. UK) and EM equity indices. Secondly, it adds a volatility filter as well as three indicators related to the business cycle and the state of the economy, which are relevant to decide on the strategy’s exposure to equities. Overall the results attest the resiliency of the strategy before, during and after historical financial crashes, as it drastically reduces the downside exposure and consistently outperforms the benchmark index by providing higher mean returns with lower variance.

Correlação entre macro e nanopartículas emitidas em fumos de soldadura MAG de aços inoxidáveis com diferentes gases de protecção

A soldadura é o processo mais utilizado na ligação de materiais. Os efeitos na saúde dos trabalhadores expostos a fumos de soldadura estão normalmente associados a danos pulmonares agudos e crónicos, mas também a outras condições médicas e doenças. O principal objectivo deste estudo foi correlacionar as emissões de macro e nanopartículas libertadas durante o processo de soldadura MIG/MAG de aços inoxidáveis com diferentes gases de protecção. Usando diferentes misturas gasosas utilizadas industrialmente com diferentes entregas térmicas, determinaram-se taxas de formação de fumos e áreas superficiais de nanopartículas com capaciade de deposição alveolar por volume pulmonar. Verificou-se como os diferentes modos de transferências e tipos de protecção gasosa, em particular, a percentagem de elementos activos na composição química do gás, afectam a quantidade de fumos gerados bem como a existência de nanopartículas com uma elevada capacidade de deposição alveolar. O modo de transferência por spray apresenta sempre valores superiores de área de superfície das partículas por volume pulmonar, ao contrário da taxa de formação de fumos. A mistura 82% Ar + 18% gera maiores emissões de nanopartículas bem como de fumos formados. A extracção na fonte e a regeneração do ar ambiente são a solução mais segura e eficiente de controlo das emissões de macro e nanopartículas em soldadura.

VARIAÇÃO SAZONAL DOS MACRO E MICROELEMENTOS NO GÊNERO HUMIRIANTHERA (ICACINACEAE), EM FUNÇÃO DA IDADE

Foram analisados 26 espécimens de H. amplae 09 de H. rupestris,nas idades jovem e adulta, coletados nas estações seca e chuvosa, quanto ao teor total de N, F, K, Ca, Mg, Mo, Cu, Zn, Mn, Fe, B, Al, Co, Cr, Na, Pb, Si e Sr nas diferentes partes vegetativas das plantas. A concentração dos macro elementos nas folhas, caules e tubérculos de H. amplae H. rupeetrisobedece a relação N> Ca> Mg> F> K. A concentração média desses elementos indica que não há variabilidade significativa nos órgãos analisados e nem em relação às idades, com exceção do N que apresenta maior teor nas folhas e em relação aos outros elementos. Os microelementos apresentam uma distribuição uniforme nos diversos órgãos, sendo os de maior concentração Fe, Al e Na. Nesse estudo foi possível verificar o equílibrio mineral entre as espécies, pelos elementos e pelas relações K/Na, K/Mg, K/Ca + Mg + 100/Mn + 10/Cu. Análise dos resultados mostra que nas espécies pesquisadas não houve um equilibrio perfeito nas várias relações, com exceção de K/Ca + Mg. Analisou-se os solos onde as plantas se desenvolveram quanto aos teores totais dos macro e microelementos.

The influence of fibre orientation on the post-cracking tensile behaviour of steel fibre reinforced self-compacting concrete

Adding fibres to concrete provides several advantages, especially in terms of controlling the crack opening width and propagation after the cracking onset. However, distribution and orientation of the fibres toward the active crack plane are significantly important in order to maximize its benefits. Therefore, in this study, the effect of the fibre distribution and orientation on the post-cracking tensile behaviour of the steel fibre reinforced self-compacting concrete (SFRSCC) specimens is investigated. For this purpose, several cores were extracted from distinct locations of a panel and were subjected to indirect (splitting) and direct tensile tests. The local stress-crack opening relationship (σ-w) was obtained by modelling the splitting tensile test under the finite element framework and by performing an Inverse Analysis (IA) procedure. Afterwards the σ-w law obtained from IA is then compared with the one ascertained directly from the uniaxial tensile tests. Finally, the fibre distribution/orientation parameters were determined adopting an image analysis technique.

Exploring the use of HPFRC and GFRP grids for the production of manhole covers

Corrosion of the steel reinforced concrete elements is one of the common pathologies that limits the long-term performance of urban infrastructures. This problem causes the loss of structural serviceability by decreasing the concrete-steel bond strength and reducing the cross section of the reinforcements. The present study introduces a new system for developing free-corrosion resistance prefabricated manhole covers for applications in the aggressive environments, i.e. wastewater collector systems, sewer systems, stormwater systems, etc. Fibre reinforced cement composites were applied in this system in order to suppress the corrodible steel mesh and maintain the structural ductility as well. Application of fibre reinforced polymer (FRP) system is adopted as the additional solution for increasing the load carrying capacity of these elements without concerns about corrosion. The effectiveness of the applied strategy in developing the manhole covers in terms of load carrying capacity and failure mode is evaluated in this research. Furthermore, this paper discusses a FEM-based simulation, aiming to address the possibility of calibrating the constitutive model parameters related to fracture modes I and II.

Numerical simulation of the punching shear behaviour of self-compacting fibre reinforced flat slabs

This paper presents the numerical simulations of the punching behaviour of centrally loaded steel fibre reinforced self-compacting concrete (SFRSCC) flat slabs. Eight half scaled slabs reinforced with different content of hooked-end steel fibres (0, 60, 75 and 90 kg/m3) and concrete strengths of 50 and 70 MPa were tested and numerically modelled. Moreover, a total of 54 three-point bending tests were carried out to assess the post-cracking flexural tensile strength. All the slabs had a relatively high conventional flexural reinforcement in order to promote the occurrence of punching failure mode. Neither of the slabs had any type of specific shear reinforcement rather than the contribution of the steel fibres. The numerical simulations were performed according to the Reissner-Mindlin theory under the finite element method framework. Regarding the classic formulation of the Reissner-Mindlin theory, in order to simulate the progressive damage induced by cracking, the shell element is discretized into layers, being assumed a plane stress state in each layer. The numerical results are, then, compared with the experimental ones and it is possible to notice that they accurately predict the experimental force-deflection relationship. The type of failure observed experimentally was also predicted in the numerical simulations.

Recycled steel fibre reinforced concrete failing in bending and in shear

Recent research is showing that the addition of Recycled Steel Fibres (RSF) from wasted tyres can decrease significantly the brittle behaviour of cement based materials, by improving its toughness and post-cracking resistance. In this sense, Recycled Steel Fibre Reinforced Concrete (RSFRC) seems to have the potential to constitute a sustainable material for structural and non-structural applications. To assess this potential, experimental and numerical research was performed on the use of RSFRC in elements failing in bending and in beams failing in shear. The values of the fracture mode I parameters of the developed RSFRC were determined by performing inverse analysis with test results obtained in three point notched beam bending tests. To assess the possibility of using RSF as shear reinforcement in Reinforced Concrete (RC) beams, three point bending tests were executed with three series of RSFRC beams flexurally reinforced with a relatively high reinforcement ratio of longitudinal steel bars in order to assure shear failure for all the tested beams. By performing material nonlinear simulations with a computer program based on the finite element method (FEM), the applicability of the fracture mode I crack constitutive law derived from the inverse analysis is assessed for the prediction of the behaviour of these beams. The performance of the formulation proposed by RILEM TC 162 TDF and CEB-FIP 2010 for the prediction of the shear resistance of fibre reinforced concrete elements was also evaluated.

Time-dependent flexural behaviour of cracked steel fibre reinforced self-compacting concrete panels

In the present work are described and discussed the results of an extensive experimental program that aims to study the long-term behaviour of cracked steel fibre reinforced self-compacting concrete, SFRSCC, applied in laminar structures. In a first stage, the influence of the initial crack opening level (wcr = 0.3 and 0.5 mm), applied stress level, fibre orientation/dispersion and distance from the casting point, on the flexural creep behaviour of SFRSCC was investigated. Moreover, in order to evaluate the effects of the creep phenomenon on the residual flexural strength, a series of monotonic tests were also executed. It was found that wcr = 0.5 mm series showed a higher creep coefficient comparing to the series with a lower initial crack opening. Furthermore, the creep performance of the SFRSCC was influenced by the orientation of the extracted prismatic specimens regarding the direction of the concrete flow within the cast panel.

Flexural strengthening of RC beams using hybrid composite plate (HCP): experimental and analytical study

Hybrid Composite Plate (HCP) is a reliable recently proposed retrofitting solution for concrete structures, which is composed of a strain hardening cementitious composite (SHCC) plate reinforced with Carbon Fibre Reinforced Polymer (CFRP). This system benefits from the synergetic advantages of these two composites, namely the high ductility of SHCC and the high tensile strength of CFRPs. In the materialstructural of HCP, the ultra-ductile SHCC plate acts as a suitable medium for stress transfer between CFRP laminates (bonded into the pre-sawn grooves executed on the SHCC plate) and the concrete substrate by means of a connection system made by either chemical anchors, adhesive, or a combination thereof. In comparison with traditional applications of FRP systems, HCP is a retrofitting solution that (i) is less susceptible to the detrimental effect of the lack of strength and soundness of the concrete cover in the strengthening effectiveness; (ii) assures higher durability for the strengthened elements and higher protection to the FRP component in terms of high temperatures and vandalism; and (iii) delays, or even, prevents detachment of concrete substrate. This paper describes the experimental program carried out, and presents and discusses the relevant results obtained on the assessment of the performance of HCP strengthened reinforced concrete (RC) beams subjected to flexural loading. Moreover, an analytical approach to estimate the ultimate flexural capacity of these beams is presented, which was complemented with a numerical strategy for predicting their load-deflection behaviour. By attaching HCP to the beams’ soffit, a significant increase in the flexural capacity at service, at yield initiation of the tension steel bars and at failure of the beams can be achieved, while satisfactory deflection ductility is assured and a high tensile capacity of the CFRP laminates is mobilized. Both analytical and numerical approaches have predicted with satisfactory agreement, the load-deflection response of the reference beam and the strengthened ones tested experimentally.

Masonry macro-block analysis

The structural analysis involves the definition of the model and selection of the analysis type. The model should represent the stiffness, the mass and the loads of the structure. The structures can be represented using simplified models, such as the lumped mass models, and advanced models resorting the Finite Element Method (FEM) and Discrete Element Method (DEM). Depending on the characteristics of the structure, different types of analysis can be used such as limit analysis, linear and non-linear static analysis and linear and non-linear dynamic analysis. Unreinforced masonry structures present low tensile strength and the linear analyses seem to not be adequate for assessing their structural behaviour. On the other hand, the static and dynamic non-linear analyses are complex, since they involve large time computational requirements and advanced knowledge of the practitioner. The non-linear analysis requires advanced knowledge on the material properties, analysis tools and interpretation of results. The limit analysis with macro-blocks can be assumed as a more practical method in the estimation of maximum load capacity of structure. Furthermore, the limit analysis require a reduced number of parameters, which is an advantage for the assessment of ancient and historical masonry structures, due to the difficult in obtaining reliable data.

Microinjection molding of polyamide 6/carbon nanotube composites

Microinjection molding of polymer composites with carbon nanotubes (CNT) requires previous production of the nanocomposites, often by melt extrusion. Each processing step has a thermo-mechanical effect on the polymer melt, conveying different properties to the final product. In this work, polyamide 6 and its composites with pristine and functionalized CNT (f-CNT) were processed by a mini twin-screw extrusion, followed by microinjection molding. The morphology induced on the polymer by each process was analyzed by differential scanning calorimetry and wide angle X-ray diffraction. Calorimetric analysis showed a secondary crystallization for the microinjected materials, absent for the extruded materials. The characterization of microinjected polyamide 6 by X-ray diffraction revealed a large contribution of the c phase to the total crystallinity, mainly in the skin region, while the nanocomposites and extruded materials were characterized by a larger contribution of the a phase. Functionalization of CNT did not affect significantly the polymer morphology compared to composites with pristine CNT.

Producing LFT composite parts for large consumption markets from thermoplastic powder-coated towpregs

Thermoplastic matrix composites are receiving increasing interest in last years. This is due to several advantageous properties and speed of processing of these materials as compared to their thermoset counterparts. Among thermoplastic composites, Long Fibre Thermoplastics (LFTs) have seen the fastest growth, mainly due to developments in the automotive sector. LFTs combine the (semi-)structural material properties of long (>1 cm) fibres, with the ease and speed of thermoplastic processing. This paper reports a study of a novel low-cost LFT technology and resulting composites. A patented powder-coating machine able to produce continuously pre-impregnated materials directly from fibre rovings and polymer powders was used to process glass-fibre reinforced polypropylene (GF/PP) towpregs. Such pre-impregnated materials were then chopped and used to make LFTs in a patented low-cost piston-blender developed by the Centre of Lightweight Structures, TUD-TNO, the Netherlands. The work allowed studying the most relevant towpreg production parameters and establishing the processing window needed to obtain a good quality GF/PP powder coated material. Finally, the processing window that allows producing LFTs of good quality in the piston-blender and the mechanical properties of final stamped GF/PP composite parts were also determined.

Creep behaviour of cracked steel fibre reinforced self-compacting concrete laminar structures

Tese de Doutoramento - Civil Engineering

Quantificação de macro e micro nutrientes em algumas etnovariedades de cubiu (Solanum sessiliflorum Dunal)

Considerando a ampla variabilidade genética de cubiu (Solanum sessiliflorum Dunal), quantificaram-se os macro e micro-nutrientes, objetivando a ampliação da tabela de composição química de alimentos típicos da região amazônica. Os frutos provenientes da Estação Experimental de Hortaliças Alejo von der Pahlen (EEH) do Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (INPA), localizados no km 14 da Rodovia AM 010 em Manaus, AM, foram processados no Laboratório de Alimentos e Nutrição do INPA. Avaliaram-se oito etnovariedades de cubiu identificados como: 2 I, 3 I, 6, 7, 12, 14, 17, 29 I e III em estádio de maturação comercial. Os teores de elementos minerais foram quantificados pela técnica de Ativação por Nêutrons Instrumental e a fibra alimentar pelo método enzímico-gravimétrico. Os resultados demonstram ser o cubiu um fruto com baixo conteúdo energético (média de 33 kcal), com conteúdo de fibra alimentar total na ordem de 1,6%. Em relação aos macros elementos minerais, a etnovariedade 6, apresentou a maior concentração em potássio (513,5±3,1mg), cálcio (18,9±0,6mg) e a etnovariedade 2 I em Fe (564,4±58,1µg) e Cr (99,3±8,3µg). A menor concentração foi constatada na etnovariedade 12 para os elementos K (229,0±4,5mg), Na (53,7±5,5µg) e Zn (89,3±4,7µg). Apesar das variações em relação as diferentes etno variedades e conseqüentemente concentrações em elementos minerais, o cubiu, pode estar contribuindo para atingir as recomendações desses nutrientes.