The Causal Links between FDI and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: A Case Study of the Republic of Rwanda

The study examines the short-run and long-run causality running from real economic growth to real foreign direct investment inflows (RFDI). Other variables such as education (involving combination of primary, secondary and tertiary enrolment as a proxy to education), real development finance, unskilled labour, to real RFDI inflows are included in the study. The time series data covering the period of 1983 -2013 are examined. First, I applied Augmented Dicky-Fuller (ADF) technique to test for unit root in variables. Findings shows all variables integrated of order one [I(1)]. Thereafter, Johansen Co-integration Test (JCT) was conducted to establish the relationship among variables. Both trace and maximum Eigen value at 5% level of significance indicate 3 co-integrated equations. Vector error correction method (VECM) was applied to capture short and long-run causality running from education, economic growth, real development finance, and unskilled labour to real foreign direct investment inflows in the Republic of Rwanda. Findings shows no short-run causality running from education, real development finance, real GDP and unskilled labour to real FDI inflows, however there were existence of long-run causality. This can be interpreted that, in the short-run; education, development finance, finance and economic growth does not influence inflows of foreign direct investment in Rwanda; but it does in long-run. From the policy perspective, the Republic of Rwanda should focus more on long term goal of investing in education to improve human capital, undertake policy reforms that promotes economic growth, in addition to promoting good governance to attract development finance – especially from Nordics countries (particularly Norway and Denmark).

Hotel Profit Implications from Rising Wages and Inflation in the U.S.

Macroeconomic models based on the Phillips Curve predict that as the unemployment rate declines toward the long-run, natural rate, the pace of wage and price growth accelerates and inflation rises.1 In this paper I analyze the profitability prospects for the U.S. hotel industry in today’s relatively volatile economic environment, keeping in mind the Phillips Curve’s general principle that inflation and employment have an inverse, but relatively stable short-term relationship. Although employment and economic growth in the U.S. have been uneven in recent months, the unemployment rate has declined to less than 5 percent, which many economists believe is close to the natural rate. Growth in wages and salaries, as measured by the Employment Cost Index, has concurrently been moving upward between 2.5 and 3.0 percent during the past 12 months. At the same time, general inflation remains below levels that might typically be expected this late in the cycle, although core inflation is bumping up against the Federal Reserve’s 2-percent target. If the inflation rate continues to move upward as predicted by Phillips Curve models (and encouraged by the Federal Reserve), rising labor costs and other expenses will exert downward pressure on U.S. business profits. Backward movement up the Phillips Curve (with greater inflation) coincides with an expanding economy. In that scenario, prices of goods and services also will rise in real terms if their supply cannot keep up with demand, and producers have the ability to raise prices (absent fixed-price contracts such as leases).

Types of embedded ties in buyer-supplier relationships and their combined effects on innovation performance

[EN] Purpose of the paper - This research analyzes the impact of three types of embedded ties, namely, specialized complementary resources, idiosyncratic investments, and knowledge sharing, on the innovation capacity of the firms. We also study the particularities of the Machine-Tool industry. Theoretical background – Our evaluation of the embedded buyer-supplier ties is based on the potential sources of relational rents proposed by Dyer and Sing (1998). We also draw on Uzzi and Lancaster (2003), Noordhoff et al. (2011), among others, to discuss the positive and negative aspects of embedded ties. Design/Methodology/Approach ‐ Using data from a survey of 202 European machine-tool firms acting as buyers and sellers, we propose and evaluate a Structural Equation model. Findings ‐ Only knowledge-sharing routines exert a significant positive effect on product innovation performance. Neither an increase in the idiosyncratic investments nor in complementary resources and capabilities enhance innovation performance. Also, knowledge-sharing routines mediate in the effect from idiosyncratic investments on innovation performance. Research Limitations. ‐ The machine tool industry has unique characteristics that make this generalization difficult. Also, there is considerable difficulty associated with testing more deeply the interrelations among these embedded ties in the long run. It is plausible to understand that these interrelations operate within a gradual process. Originality/Value/Contribution of Paper ‐ This research contributes to a better understanding of the role of embedded ties on innovativeness. To the best of our knowledge, there is no previous international empirical research analyzing the mediation effects among specialized complementary resources, idiosyncratic investments and knowledge sharing, and their effects on the innovation capacity of firms.

A study on the effect of functional distribution of income on aggregate demand

In this thesis, we study the causal relationship between functional distribution of income and economic growth. In particular, we focus on some of the aspects that might alter the effect of the profit share on growth. After a brief introduction and literature review, the empirical contributions will be presented in Chapters 3,4 and 5. Chapter 3 analyses the effect of a contemporaneous decrease in the wage share among countries that are major trade partners. Falling wage share and wage moderation are a global phenomenon which are hardly opposed by governments. This is because lower wages are associated with lower export prices and, therefore, have a positive effect on net-exports. There is, however, a fallacy of composition problem: not all countries can improve their balance of payments contemporaneously. Studying the country members of the North America Free Trade Agreement, we find that the effect on export of a contemporaneous decrease in the wage share in Mexico, Canada and the United States, is negative in all countries. In other words, the competitive advantage that each country gains because of a reduction in its wage share (to which is associated a decrease in export prices), is offset by a contemporaneous increase in competitiveness in the other two countries. Moreover, we find that NAFTA is overall wage-led: the profit share has a negative effect on aggregate demand. Chapter 4 tests whether it is possible that the effect of the profit share on growth is different in the long run and in the short run. Following Blecker (2014) our hypothesis is that in the short run the growth regime is less wage-led than it is in the long run. The results of our empirical investigation support this hypothesis, at least for the United States over the period 1950-2014. The effect of wages on consumption increases more than proportionally compared to the effect of profits on consumption from the short to the long run. Moreover, consumer debt seem to have only a short-run effect on consumption indicating that in the long run, when debt has to be repaid, consumption depends more on the level of income and on how it is distributed. Regarding investment, the effect of capacity utilization is always larger than the effect of the profit share and that the difference between the two effects is higher in the long run than in the short run. This confirms the hypothesis that in the long run, unless there is an increase in demand, it is likely that firms are not going to increase investments even in the presence of high profits. In addition, the rentier share of profits – that comprises dividends and interest payments – has a long-run negative effect on investment. In the long run rentiers divert firms’ profits from investment and, therefore, it weakens the effect of profits on investment. Finally, Chapter 5 studies the possibility of structural breaks in the relationship between functional distribution of income and growth. We argue that, from the 1980s, financialization and the European exchange rate agreements weakened the positive effect of the profit share on growth in Italy. The growth regime is therefore becoming less profit-led and more wage-led. Our results confirm this hypothesis and also shed light on the concept of cooperative and conflictual regimes as defined by Bhaduri and Marglin (1990).

Some misspecfication problems in long-memory time series models

Doctor of Philosophy in Mathematics

An empirical investigation of the impact of global energy transition on Nigerian oil and gas exports

18 months embargo on the thesis and check appendix for copy right materials

Healing wounds institutional strength, peacebuilding, and productive entrepreneurship – exploratory analysis on 23 departments of Colombia

Este estudio presenta un análisis exploratorio sobre la correlación entre la fortaleza institucional, las condiciones de paz, y el emprendimiento en una muestra de 23 departamentos en Colombia usando datos de 2014. Para llevar a cabo este objetivo se propusieron y construyeron tres índices siguiendo definiciones conceptuales seminales o estándares de evaluación internacional, a saber: 1) El Índice de Fortaleza Institucional, 2) El Índice de Construcción de Paz (construido a partir del índice de paz negativa y el índice de paz positiva) y 3) El Índice de Emprendimiento Productivo. Los resultados no muestran una correlación significativa entre todos los tres índices. Por un lado, existe una correlación significativa (p<0.05) entre los índices de fortaleza institucional y emprendimiento productivo. Por otro lado, existen correlaciones negativas no significativas entre los índices de paz positiva y fortaleza institucional, emprendimiento productivo y paz positiva y emprendimiento productivo y construcción de paz. En un segundo acercamiento, la población de los departamentos fue la variable con mayor número de correlaciones significativas (p<0.01) entre variables relacionadas con emprendimiento productivo, empleo, producto interno bruto, sofisticación industrial, innovación (patentes) y crimen. Finalmente, se discuten las conclusiones y las futuras investigaciones.

A study on the macroeconomics of climate change

This work aims at exploring the relationship between business cycles, having frequencies rooted in the short run, and climatic phenomena, which span longer time horizons. The ultimate goal is to provide a theoretical framework to address these questions: How could very long run considerations affect short run economic decisions? How short run and transitory decisions could exert a long lasting effect on climate? This is achieved by means of an off-the-shelf real business cycle (RBC) model augmented so as to include a climatic block. The economy is perturbed by a technology shock and an energy-price shock. In general, the model performs relatively well in reproducing the cyclical characteristics of the economic variables; however, it is not as successful in capturing the cyclical behavior of climatic variables. Finally, it proposes a set of policy experiments, all taking the form of an energy tax directly or indirectly linked to the climatic status. As a matter of fact the effect of any tax responsive to the business cycle shows positive aspects: when a technology shock hits the economy, it mitigates global warming with minor costs in terms of potential output losses. It also protects the economy from an increase in energy prices, sustaining a certain level of output despite the fall in fossil energy use.

Experimenting with the role of performance of hygiene and motivators on customer satisfaction: studying the temporal effect

Marketers continuously attempt to identify important attributes and innovate in order to understand how attribute performance could lead to customer satisfaction in the short term and in the long term. Understanding the impact of customer satisfaction may offer a competitive edge to companies. Researchers are discussing the importance of performance attributes in leading to satisfaction; however, there is no clear understanding of whether an attribute that leads to satisfaction at one time (e.g., short run) can cause it also in the long run, without excluding the possibility that it could lead to dissatisfaction and no satisfaction. The present research tries to understand anomalies related to asymmetric attribute performance and satisfaction over time with the help of Herzberg's (1967) Two-Factor Theory (TFT) and construal level theory (CLT). More precisely, there are main purposes of this dissertation. First, the present research tries to understand whether positive or negative hygiene attribute performance and motivator attribute factors exert different weights on overall customer satisfaction depending on the time elapsed from the service experience. Second, to test if positive or negative hygiene/motivator attribute performance affect to revisit intention and to word of mouth by considering mediating role of satisfaction. The results reveal that in the near past (NP) experience, the positive performance of hygiene concrete attributes creates a differential effect on overall satisfaction higher than the negative performance of hygiene concrete attributes. Results also confirmed mediating role of satisfaction in the relationship between attribute performance and revisit intention for near past condition but not for distant past. Likewise significant relationship was found for the mediating role of satisfaction in the relationship between attribute performance and word of mouth (WOM) for near past condition but not for distant past.

Le sol productif. Au-delà de la « zone », vers des stratégies de reterritorialisation des sites d’activité

Depuis 70 ans, les outils de planification des zones dédiées aux activités productives (Zones industrielles, Zones d’activités économiques, etc.) ont produit des espaces déconnectés des spécificités physiques et sociales du territoire, et ont participé à réduire le sol à un support de production soumis en premier lieu à des logiques de marché. Aujourd’hui, nous constatons l’inadéquation de ces outils avec leur objectif : le développement du territoire. L’ambition de la thèse est de réfléchir à une démarche alternative qui permet d’envisager des outils de planification capables d’instaurer une relation de maintien et de valorisation des ressources territoriales. Face à un aménagement des activités productives inadéquat au développement durable du territoire, la thèse propose de retracer une généalogie de la démarche « territorialiste » qui vise à établir une relation synergique entre la production et les ressources territoriales. Une démarche « Eutopique » de retour au territoire qui, en prenant en compte le lien indissociable entre défis sociaux et environnementaux, permet d’un côté de rétablir une relation aux ressources naturelles et d’en respecter les cycles et les rythmes écologiques, et de l’autre d’identifier des éléments de réponse à la crise sociale. Suite à une introduction critique du rapport que les activités productives établissent avec le territoire, le raisonnement se développe en quatre parties : Les trois premières parties suivent une approche généalogique et montrent comment les concepts de cette démarche ont évolué et se sont transformées en s’adaptant à différents contextes, et répondant à la question de pourquoi et comment ces transferts théoriques ont vu le jour. Dans la quatrième partie de la thèse est retracée l’influence et le développement original que cette démarche trouve aujourd’hui en France : l’objectif est celui d’ouvrir sur des stratégies pour envisager un système productif capable de développer le territoire dans le temps long.

Salto triplo : o sistema de preparaçao do desportista : da detecção a promoção do talento

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

AVERAGE CONTINUOUS CONTROL OF PIECEWISE DETERMINISTIC MARKOV PROCESSES

This paper deals with the long run average continuous control problem of piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs) taking values in a general Borel space and with compact action space depending on the state variable. The control variable acts on the jump rate and transition measure of the PDMP, and the running and boundary costs are assumed to be positive but not necessarily bounded. Our first main result is to obtain an optimality equation for the long run average cost in terms of a discrete-time optimality equation related to the embedded Markov chain given by the postjump location of the PDMP. Our second main result guarantees the existence of a feedback measurable selector for the discrete-time optimality equation by establishing a connection between this equation and an integro-differential equation. Our final main result is to obtain some sufficient conditions for the existence of a solution for a discrete-time optimality inequality and an ordinary optimal feedback control for the long run average cost using the so-called vanishing discount approach. Two examples are presented illustrating the possible applications of the results developed in the paper.

The B0.5IVe CoRoT target HD 49330 I. Photometric analysis from CoRoT data

Context. Be stars undergo outbursts producing a circumstellar disk from the ejected material. The beating of non-radial pulsations has been put forward as a possible mechanism of ejection. Aims. We analyze the pulsational behavior of the early B0.5IVe star HD 49330 observed during the first CoRoT long run towards the Galactical anticenter (LRA1). This Be star is located close to the lower edge of the beta Cephei instability strip in the HR diagram and showed a 0.03 mag outburst during the CoRoT observations. It is thus an ideal case for testing the aforementioned hypothesis. Methods. We analyze the CoRoT light curve of HD 49330 using Fourier methods and non-linear least square fitting. Results. In this star, we find pulsation modes typical of beta Cep stars (p modes) and SPB stars (g modes) with amplitude variations along the run directly correlated with the outburst. These results provide new clues about the origin of the Be phenomenon as well as strong constraints on the seismic modelling of Be stars.

Bayesian updating rules in continuous opinion dynamics models

Here, I investigate the use of Bayesian updating rules applied to modeling how social agents change their minds in the case of continuous opinion models. Given another agent statement about the continuous value of a variable, we will see that interesting dynamics emerge when an agent assigns a likelihood to that value that is a mixture of a Gaussian and a uniform distribution. This represents the idea that the other agent might have no idea about what is being talked about. The effect of updating only the first moments of the distribution will be studied, and we will see that this generates results similar to those of the bounded confidence models. On also updating the second moment, several different opinions always survive in the long run, as agents become more stubborn with time. However, depending on the probability of error and initial uncertainty, those opinions might be clustered around a central value.

Experimental study of a Tollmien-Schlichting wave interacting with a shallow 3D roughness element

The paper is devoted to an experimental study of the effect of a shallow 3D roughness element on the evolution of a 2D Tollmien-Schlichting wave in a Blasius boundary layer. The experiments were carried out under controlled disturbance conditions on an airfoil section which could provide a long run with zero pressure gradient flow. A pneumatically driven slit source was used to introduce the Tollmien-Schilichting wave upstream of the lower branch of the neutral stability curve. A few wavelengths downstream, the T-S wave interacts with a cylindrical roughness element. The height of the roughness was slowly oscillating in time, which allows a continuous measurement of the T-S wave response downstream the roughness. The oscillation frequency was approximately 1500 times lower than the frequency of the studied Tollmien-Schlichting wave and therefore, behaved as a steady roughness with respect to the T-S wave. Hot wire anemometry was used to measure wall normal profiles and spanwise scans close to the maximum of the eigenfunction of the T-S wave. The oscillation of the roughness and the synchronization of all-equipments permitted the use of ensemble average techniques. Two different amplitudes of T-S waves with a non-dimensional frequency of F120E-06 were studied. They show a strong amplification of the disturbances in a small spanwise wave number range. The analysis of the wall normal T-S profiles suggests the growth of oblique modes.