Dynamic Analysis and Pattern Visualization of Forest Fires

This paper analyses forest fires in the perspective of dynamical systems. Forest fires exhibit complex correlations in size, space and time, revealing features often present in complex systems, such as the absence of a characteristic length-scale, or the emergence of long range correlations and persistent memory. This study addresses a public domain forest fires catalogue, containing information of events for Portugal, during the period from 1980 up to 2012. The data is analysed in an annual basis, modelling the occurrences as sequences of Dirac impulses with amplitude proportional to the burnt area. First, we consider mutual information to correlate annual patterns. We use visualization trees, generated by hierarchical clustering algorithms, in order to compare and to extract relationships among the data. Second, we adopt the Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) visualization tool. MDS generates maps where each object corresponds to a point. Objects that are perceived to be similar to each other are placed on the map forming clusters. The results are analysed in order to extract relationships among the data and to identify forest fire patterns.

Estimation of infection rate in epidemic models with multiple populations

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Matemática e Aplicações Especialização em Actuariado, Estatística e Investigação Operacional

Dynamic Analysis and Pattern Visualization of Forest Fires

This paper analyses forest fires in the perspective of dynamical systems. Forest fires exhibit complex correlations in size, space and time, revealing features often present in complex systems, such as the absence of a characteristic length-scale, or the emergence of long range correlations and persistent memory. This study addresses a public domain forest fires catalogue, containing information of events for Portugal, during the period from 1980 up to 2012. The data is analysed in an annual basis, modelling the occurrences as sequences of Dirac impulses with amplitude proportional to the burnt area. First, we consider mutual information to correlate annual patterns. We use visualization trees, generated by hierarchical clustering algorithms, in order to compare and to extract relationships among the data. Second, we adopt the Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) visualization tool. MDS generates maps where each object corresponds to a point. Objects that are perceived to be similar to each other are placed on the map forming clusters. The results are analysed in order to extract relationships among the data and to identify forest fire patterns.

The Persistence of Memory

This paper analyzes several natural and man-made complex phenomena in the perspective of dynamical systems. Such phenomena are often characterized by the absence of a characteristic length-scale, long range correlations and persistent memory, which are features also associated to fractional order systems. For each system, the output, interpreted as a manifestation of the system dynamics, is analyzed by means of the Fourier transform. The amplitude spectrum is approximated by a power law function and the parameters are interpreted as an underlying signature of the system dynamics. The complex systems under analysis are then compared in a global perspective in order to unveil and visualize hidden relationships among them.

Dynamical Analysis and Visualization of Tornadoes Time Series

In this paper we analyze the behavior of tornado time-series in the U.S. from the perspective of dynamical systems. A tornado is a violently rotating column of air extending from a cumulonimbus cloud down to the ground. Such phenomena reveal features that are well described by power law functions and unveil characteristics found in systems with long range memory effects. Tornado time series are viewed as the output of a complex system and are interpreted as a manifestation of its dynamics. Tornadoes are modeled as sequences of Dirac impulses with amplitude proportional to the events size. First, a collection of time series involving 64 years is analyzed in the frequency domain by means of the Fourier transform. The amplitude spectra are approximated by power law functions and their parameters are read as an underlying signature of the system dynamics. Second, it is adopted the concept of circular time and the collective behavior of tornadoes analyzed. Clustering techniques are then adopted to identify and visualize the emerging patterns.

State Space Analysis of Forest Fires

This paper studies forest fires from the perspective of dynamical systems. Burnt area, precipitation and atmospheric temperatures are interpreted as state variables of a complex system and the correlations between them are investigated by means of different mathematical tools. First, we use mutual information to reveal potential relationships in the data. Second, we adopt the state space portrait to characterize the system’s behavior. Third, we compare the annual state space curves and we apply clustering and visualization tools to unveil long-range patterns. We use forest fire data for Portugal, covering the years 1980–2003. The territory is divided into two regions (North and South), characterized by different climates and vegetation. The adopted methodology represents a new viewpoint in the context of forest fires, shedding light on a complex phenomenon that needs to be better understood in order to mitigate its devastating consequences, at both economical and environmental levels.

Fractional Dynamics in Forest Fires

Every year forest fires consume large areas, being a major concern in many countries like Australia, United States and Mediterranean Basin European Countries (e.g., Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece). Understanding patterns of such events, in terms of size and spatiotemporal distributions, may help to take measures beforehand in view of possible hazards and decide strategies of fire prevention, detection and suppression. Traditional statistical tools have been used to study forest fires. Nevertheless, those tools might not be able to capture the main features of fires complex dynamics and to model fire behaviour [1]. Forest fires size-frequency distributions unveil long range correlations and long memory characteristics, which are typical of fractional order systems [2]. Those complex correlations are characterized by self-similarity and absence of characteristic length-scale, meaning that forest fires exhibit power-law (PL) behaviour. Forest fires have also been proved to exhibit time-clustering phenomena, with timescales of the order of few days [3]. In this paper, we study forest fires in the perspective of dynamical systems and fractional calculus (FC). Public domain forest fires catalogues, containing data of events occurred in Portugal, in the period 1980 up to 2011, are considered. The data is analysed in an annual basis, modelling the occurrences as sequences of Dirac impulses. The frequency spectra of such signals are determined using Fourier transforms, and approximated through PL trendlines. The PL parameters are then used to unveil the fractional-order dynamics characteristics of the data. To complement the analysis, correlation indices are used to compare and find possible relationships among the data. It is shown that the used approach can be useful to expose hidden patterns not captured by traditional tools.

Variant Rett Syndrome in a Girl with a Pericentric X-Chromosome Inversion Leading to Epigenetic Changes and Overexpression of the MECP2 Gene

Rett syndrome is a neurodevelopmental disorder caused by mutations in the MECP2 gene. We investigated the genetic basis of disease in a female patient with a Rett-like clinical. Karyotype analysis revealed a pericentric inversion in the X chromosome -46,X,inv(X)(p22.1q28), with breakpoints in the cytobands where the MECP2 and CDKL5 genes are located. FISH analysis revealed that the MECP2 gene is not dislocated by the inversion. However, and in spite of a balanced pattern of X inactivation, this patient displayed hypomethylation and an overexpression of the MECP2 gene at the mRNA level in the lymphocytes (mean fold change: 2.55±0.38) in comparison to a group of control individuals; the expression of the CDKL5 gene was similar to that of controls (mean fold change: 0.98±0.10). No gains or losses were detected in the breakpoint regions encompassing known or suspected transcription regulatory elements. We propose that the de-regulation of MECP2 expression in this patient may be due to alterations in long-range genomic interactions caused by the inversion and hypothesize that this type of epigenetic de-regulation of the MECP2 may be present in other RTT-like patients.

Friedreich's ataxia: clinical and molecular study of 25 Brazilian cases

INTRODUCTION: Friedreich's ataxia is a neurodegenerative disorder whose clinical diagnostic criteria for typical cases basically include: a) early age of onset (< 20 or 25 years), b) autosomal recessive inheritance, c) progressive ataxia of limbs and gait, and d) absence of lower limb tendon reflexes. METHODS: We studied the frequency and the size of expanded GAA and their influence on neurologic findings, age at onset, and disease progression in 25 Brazilian patients with clinical diagnosis of Friedreich's ataxia - 19 typical and 6 atypical - using a long-range PCR test. RESULTS: Abnormalities in cerebellar signs, in electrocardiography, and pes cavus occurred more frequently in typical cases; however, plantar response and speech were more frequently normal in this group when the both typical and atypical cases were compared. Homozygous GAA expansion repeats were detected in 17 cases (68%) - all typical cases. In 8 patients (32%) (6 atypical and 2 typical), no expansion was observed, ruling out the diagnosis of Friedreich's ataxia. In cases with GAA expansions, foot deformity, cardiac abnormalities, and some neurologic findings occurred more frequently; however, abnormalities in cranial nerves and in tomographic findings were detected less frequently than in patients without GAA expansions. DISCUSSION: Molecular analysis was imperative for the diagnosis of Friedreich's ataxia, not only for typical cases but also for atypical ones. There was no genotype-phenotype correlation. Diagnosis based only on clinical findings is limited; however, it aids in better screening for suspected cases that should be tested. Evaluation for vitamin E deficiency is recommended, especially in cases without GAA expansion.

Redução do tempo de montagem final de transformadores CORE através da aplicação de ferramentas LEAN

Dissertação de mestrado em Engenharia Industrial

Age effects on EEG correlates of the Wisconsin card sorting test

Body and brain undergo several changes with aging. One of the domains in which these changes are more remarkable relates with cognitive performance. In the present work, electroencephalogram (EEG) markers (power spectral density and spectral coherence) of age-related cognitive decline were sought whilst the subjects performed the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test (WCST). Considering the expected age-related cognitive deficits, WCST was applied to young, mid-age and elderly participants, and the theta and alpha frequency bands were analyzed. From the results herein presented, higher theta and alpha power were found to be associated with a good performance in the WCST of younger subjects. Additionally, higher theta and alpha coherence were also associated with good performance and were shown to decline with age and a decrease in alpha peak frequency seems to be associated with aging. Additionally, inter-hemispheric long-range coherences and parietal theta power were identified as age-independent EEG correlates of cognitive performance. In summary, these data reveals age-dependent as well as age-independent EEG correlates of cognitive performance that contribute to the understanding of brain aging and related cognitive deficits.

A well-posedness theory in measures for some kinetic models of collective motion

We present existence, uniqueness and continuous dependence results for some kinetic equations motivated by models for the collective behavior of large groups of individuals. Models of this kind have been recently proposed to study the behavior of large groups of animals, such as flocks of birds, swarms, or schools of fish. Our aim is to give a well-posedness theory for general models which possibly include a variety of effects: an interaction through a potential, such as a short-range repulsion and long-range attraction; a velocity-averaging effect where individuals try to adapt their own velocity to that of other individuals in their surroundings; and self-propulsion effects, which take into account effects on one individual that are independent of the others. We develop our theory in a space of measures, using mass transportation distances. As consequences of our theory we show also the convergence of particle systems to their corresponding kinetic equations, and the local-in-time convergence to the hydrodynamic limit for one of the models.

Síntesi i estudi de les propietats de fotoluminescència de nanoestructures de sulfur de cadmi

S’han sintetitzat estructures de CdS a partir de sílice mesoporosa (SBA-15, SBA-16 i KIT-6) pel mètode del motlle rígid i s’han caracteritzat mitjançant TEM i XRD, i se n’han estudiat les seves propietats de fotoluminescència mitjançant CSLM. Els resultats obtinguts s’han comparat amb una mostra de CdS comercial. El CdS SBA-15 ha conservat l’estructura mesoporosa del motlle, mentre que en els altres dos casos s’ha mantingut només de manera parcial. Per a totes les mostres, la mida de partícula es troba en el rang dels 3-10 nm. Pel que fa a l’estructura, s’ha detectat fase wurtzita i zinc-blenda, en diferents percentatges entre elles. La formació de wurtzita pot ser en part responsable del col·lapse parcial de la mesostructura. El pic de màxima emissió en l’espectre de fotoluminescència es desplaça entre les diferents estructures segons la mida de partícula. L’amplada del pic varia en funció del grau de dispersió de partícula, de manera que s’observa que aquesta és inferior en les mostres sintetitzades respecte de la comercial.

Microtubule-dependent cell morphogenesis in the fission yeast.

In many systems, microtubules contribute spatial information to cell morphogenesis, for instance in cell migration and division. In rod-shaped fission yeast cells, microtubules control cell morphogenesis by transporting polarity factors, namely the Tea1-Tea4 complex, to cell tips. This complex then recruits the DYRK kinase Pom1 to cell ends. Interestingly, recent work has shown that these proteins also provide long-range spatial cues to position the division site in the middle of the cell and temporal signals to coordinate cell length with the cell cycle. Here I review how these microtubule-associated proteins form polar morphogenesis centers that control and integrate both spatial and temporal aspects of cell morphogenesis.

A gene-rich, transcriptionally active environment and the pre-deposition of repressive marks are predictive of susceptibility to KRAB/KAP1-mediated silencing.

AbstractBACKGROUND: KRAB-ZFPs (Krüppel-associated box domain-zinc finger proteins) are vertebrate-restricted transcriptional repressors encoded in the hundreds by the mouse and human genomes. They act via an essential cofactor, KAP1, which recruits effectors responsible for the formation of facultative heterochromatin. We have recently shown that KRAB/KAP1 can mediate long-range transcriptional repression through heterochromatin spreading, but also demonstrated that this process is at times countered by endogenous influences.METHOD: To investigate this issue further we used an ectopic KRAB-based repressor. This system allowed us to tether KRAB/KAP1 to hundreds of euchromatic sites within genes, and to record its impact on gene expression. We then correlated this KRAB/KAP1-mediated transcriptional effect to pre-existing genomic and chromatin structures to identify specific characteristics making a gene susceptible to repression.RESULTS: We found that genes that were susceptible to KRAB/KAP1-mediated silencing carried higher levels of repressive histone marks both at the promoter and over the transcribed region than genes that were insensitive. In parallel, we found a high enrichment in euchromatic marks within both the close and more distant environment of these genes.CONCLUSION: Together, these data indicate that high levels of gene activity in the genomic environment and the pre-deposition of repressive histone marks within a gene increase its susceptibility to KRAB/KAP1-mediated repression.