Making decisions with the future in mind: Developmental and comparative identification of mental time travel

Mechanisms that produce behavior which increase future survival chances provide an adaptive advantage. The flexibility of human behavior is at least partly the result of one such mechanism, our ability to travel mentally in time and entertain potential future scenarios. We can study mental time travel in children using language. Current results suggest that key developments occur between the ages of three to five. However, linguistic performance can be misleading as language itself is developing. We therefore advocate the use of methodologies that focus on future-oriented action. Mental time travel required profound changes in humans' motivational system, so that current behavior could be directed to secure not just present, but individually anticipated future needs. Such behavior should be distinguishable from behavior based on current drives, or on other mechanisms. We propose an experimental paradigm that provides subjects with an opportunity to act now to satisfy a need not currently experienced. This approach may be used to assess mental time travel in nonhuman animals. We conclude by describing a preliminary study employing an adaptation of this paradigm for children. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

People, technology, processes and risk knowledge sharing

The present global economic crisis creates doubts about the good use of accumulated experience and knowledge in managing risk in financial services. Typically, risk management practice does not use knowledge management (KM) to improve and to develop new answers to the threats. A key reason is that it is not clear how to break down the “organizational silos” view of risk management (RM) that is commonly taken. As a result, there has been relatively little work on finding the relationships between RM and KM. We have been doing research for the last couple of years on the identification of relationships between these two disciplines. At ECKM 2007 we presented a general review of the literature(s) and some hypotheses for starting research on KM and its relationship to the perceived value of enterprise risk management. This article presents findings based on our preliminary analyses, concentrating on those factors affecting the perceived quality of risk knowledge sharing. These come from a questionnaire survey of RM employees in organisations in the financial services sector, which yielded 121 responses. We have included five explanatory variables for the perceived quality of risk knowledge sharing. These comprised two variables relating to people (organizational capacity for work coordination and perceived quality of communication among groups), one relating to process (perceived quality of risk control) and two related to technology (web channel functionality and RM information system functionality). Our findings so far are that four of these five variables have a significant positive association with the perceived quality of risk knowledge sharing: contrary to expectations, web channel functionality did not have a significant association. Indeed, in some of our exploratory regression studies its coefficient (although not significant) was negative. In stepwise regression, the variable organizational capacity for work coordination accounted for by far the largest part of the variation in the dependent variable perceived quality of risk knowledge sharing. The “people” variables thus appear to have the greatest influence on the perceived quality of risk knowledge sharing, even in a sector that relies heavily on technology and on quantitative approaches to decision making. We have also found similar results with the dependent variable perceived value of Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) implementation.

Strategic and operational risk in an international collaboration agency: a knowledge management solution

The International Cooperation Agency (identified in this article as IDEA) working in Colombia is one of the most important in Colombian society with programs that support gender rights, human rights, justice and peace, scholarships, aboriginal population, youth, afro descendants population, economic development in communities, and environmental development. The identified problem is based on the diversified offer of services, collaboration and social intervention which requires diverse groups of people with multiple agendas, ways to support their mandates, disciplines, and professional competences. Knowledge creation and the growth and sustainability of the organization can be in danger because of a silo culture and the resulting reduced leverage of the separate group capabilities. Organizational memory is generally formed by the tacit knowledge of the organization members, given the value of accumulated experience that this kind of social work implies. Its loss is therefore a strategic and operational risk when most problem interventions rely on direct work in the socio-economic field and living real experiences with communities. The knowledge management solution presented in this article starts first, with the identification of the people and groups concerned and the creation of a knowledge map as a means to strengthen the ties between organizational members; second, by introducing a content management system designed to support the documentation process and knowledge sharing process; and third, introducing a methodology for the adaptation of a Balanced Scorecard based on the knowledge management processes. These three main steps lead to a knowledge management “solution” that has been implemented in the organization, comprising three components: a knowledge management system, training support and promotion of cultural change.

The development of an expert system for the identification anodic coating process defects as a contribution to the dissemination of anodizing technology

Initially this thesis examines the various mechanisms by which technology is acquired within anodizing plants. In so doing the history of the evolution of anodizing technology is recorded, with particular reference to the growth of major markets and to the contribution of the marketing efforts of the aluminium industry. The business economics of various types of anodizing plants are analyzed. Consideration is also given to the impact of developments in anodizing technology on production economics and market growth. The economic costs associated with work rejected for process defects are considered. Recent changes in the industry have created conditions whereby information technology has a potentially important role to play in retaining existing knowledge. One such contribution is exemplified by the expert system which has been developed for the identification of anodizing process defects. Instead of using a "rule-based" expert system, a commercial neural networks program has been adapted for the task. The advantages of neural networks over 'rule-based' systems is that they are better suited to production problems, since the actual conditions prevailing when the defect was produced are often not known with certainty. In using the expert system, the user first identifies the process stage at which the defect probably occurred and is then directed to a file enabling the actual defects to be identified. After making this identification, the user can consult a database which gives a more detailed description of the defect, advises on remedial action and provides a bibliography of papers relating to the defect. The database uses a proprietary hypertext program, which also provides rapid cross-referencing to similar types of defect. Additionally, a graphics file can be accessed which (where appropriate) will display a graphic of the defect on screen. A total of 117 defects are included, together with 221 literature references, supplemented by 48 cross-reference hyperlinks. The main text of the thesis contains 179 literature references. (DX186565)

Development of a co-culture model of the human lungs for toxicity testing and identification of biomarkers of inhalation toxicity

The airway epithelium is the first point of contact in the lung for inhaled material, including infectious pathogens and particulate matter, and protects against toxicity from these substances by trapping and clearance via the mucociliary escalator, presence of a protective barrier with tight junctions and initiation of a local inflammatory response. The inflammatory response involves recruitment of phagocytic cells to neutralise and remove and invading materials and is oftern modelled using rodents. However, development of valid in vitro airway epithelial models is of great importance due to the restrictions on animal studies for cosmetic compound testing implicit in the 7th amendment to the European Union Cosmetics Directive. Further, rodent innate immune responses have fundamental differences to human. Pulmonary endothelial cells and leukocytes are also involved in the innate response initiated during pulmonary inflammation. Co-culture models of the airways, in particular where epithelial cells are cultured at air liquid interface with the presence of tight junctions and differentiated mucociliary cells, offer a solution to this problem. Ideally validated models will allow for detection of early biomarkers of response to exposure and investigation into inflammatory response during exposure. This thesis describes the approaches taken towards developing an in vitro epithelial/endothelial cell model of the human airways and identification biomarkers of response to exposure to xenobiotics. The model comprised normal human primary microvascular endothelial cells and the bronchial epithelial cell line BEAS-2B or normal human bronchial epithelial cells. BEAS-2B were chosen as their characterisation at air liquid interface is limited but they are robust in culture, thereby predicted to provide a more reliable test system. Proteomics analysis was undertaken on challenged cells to investigate biomarkers of exposure. BEAS-2B morphology was characterised at air liquid interface compared with normal human bronchial epithelial cells. The results indicate that BEAS-2B cells at an air liquid interface form tight junctions as shown by expression of the tight junction protein zonula occludens-1. To this author’s knowledge this is the first time this result has been reported. The inflammatory response of BEAS-2B (measured as secretion of the inflammatory mediators interleukin-8 and -6) air liquid interface mono-cultures to Escherichia coli lipopolysaccharide or particulate matter (fine and ultrafine titanium dioxide) was comparable to published data for epithelial cells. Cells were also exposed to polymers of “commercial interest” which were in the nanoparticle range (and referred to particles hereafter). BEAS-2B mono-cultures showed an increased secretion of inflammatory mediators after challenge. Inclusion of microvascular endothelial cells resulted in protection against LPS- and particle- induced epithelial toxicity, measured as cell viability and inflammatory response, indicating the importance of co-cultures for investigations into toxicity. Two-dimensional proteomic analysis of lysates from particle-challenged cells failed to identify biomarkers of toxicity due to assay interference and experimental variability. Separately, decreased plasma concentrations of serine protease inhibitors, and the negative acute phase proteins transthyretin, histidine-rich glycoprotein and alpha2-HS glycoprotein were identified as potential biomarkers of methyl methacrylate/ethyl methacrylate/butylacrylate treatment in rats.

Knowledge workers and their relationships with organisations

The programme of research examines knowledge workers, their relationships with organisations, and perceptions of management practices through the development of a theoretical model and knowledge worker archetypes. Knowledge worker and non-knowledge worker archetypes were established through an analysis of the extant literature. After an exploratory study of knowledge workers in a small software development company the archetypes were refined to include occupational classification data and the findings from Study 1. The Knowledge Worker Characteristics Model (KWCM) was developed as a theoretical framework in order to analyse differences between the two archetypes within the IT sector. The KWCM comprises of the variables within the job characteristics model, creativity, goal orientation, identification and commitment. In Study 2, a global web based survey was conducted. There were insufficient non-knowledge worker responses and therefore a cluster analysis was conducted to interrogate the archetypes further. This demonstrated, unexpectedly, that that there were marked differences within the knowledge worker archetypes suggesting the need to granulate the archetype further. The theoretical framework and the archetypes were revised (as programmers and web developers) and the research study was refocused to examine occupational differences within knowledge work. Findings from Study 2 identified that there were significant differences between the archetypes in relation to the KWCM. 19 semi-structured interviews were conducted in Study 3 in order to deepen the analysis using qualitative data and to examine perceptions of people management practices. The findings from both studies demonstrate that there were significant differences between the two groups but also that job challenge, problem solving, intrinsic reward and team identification were of importance to both groups of knowledge workers. This thesis presents an examination of knowledge workers’ perceptions of work, organisations and people management practices in the granulation and differentiation of occupational archetypes.

Operating Model of Knowledge Quantum Engineering for Decision-Making in Conditions of Indeterminacy

The operating model of knowledge quantum engineering for identification and prognostic decision- making in conditions of α-indeterminacy is suggested in the article. The synthesized operating model solves three basic tasks: Аt-task to formalize tk-knowledge; Вt-task to recognize (identify) objects according to observed results; Сt-task to extrapolate (prognosticate) the observed results. Operating derivation of identification and prognostic decisions using authentic different-level algorithmic knowledge quantum (using tRAKZ-method) assumes synthesis of authentic knowledge quantum database (BtkZ) using induction operator as a system of implicative laws, and then using deduction operator according to the observed tk-knowledge and BtkZ a derivation of identification or prognostic decisions in a form of new tk-knowledge.

Individual identification via electrocardiogram analysis

Background: During last decade the use of ECG recordings in biometric recognition studies has increased. ECG characteristics made it suitable for subject identification: it is unique, present in all living individuals, and hard to forge. However, in spite of the great number of approaches found in literature, no agreement exists on the most appropriate methodology. This study aimed at providing a survey of the techniques used so far in ECG-based human identification. Specifically, a pattern recognition perspective is here proposed providing a unifying framework to appreciate previous studies and, hopefully, guide future research. Methods: We searched for papers on the subject from the earliest available date using relevant electronic databases (Medline, IEEEXplore, Scopus, and Web of Knowledge). The following terms were used in different combinations: electrocardiogram, ECG, human identification, biometric, authentication and individual variability. The electronic sources were last searched on 1st March 2015. In our selection we included published research on peer-reviewed journals, books chapters and conferences proceedings. The search was performed for English language documents. Results: 100 pertinent papers were found. Number of subjects involved in the journal studies ranges from 10 to 502, age from 16 to 86, male and female subjects are generally present. Number of analysed leads varies as well as the recording conditions. Identification performance differs widely as well as verification rate. Many studies refer to publicly available databases (Physionet ECG databases repository) while others rely on proprietary recordings making difficult them to compare. As a measure of overall accuracy we computed a weighted average of the identification rate and equal error rate in authentication scenarios. Identification rate resulted equal to 94.95 % while the equal error rate equal to 0.92 %. Conclusions: Biometric recognition is a mature field of research. Nevertheless, the use of physiological signals features, such as the ECG traits, needs further improvements. ECG features have the potential to be used in daily activities such as access control and patient handling as well as in wearable electronics applications. However, some barriers still limit its growth. Further analysis should be addressed on the use of single lead recordings and the study of features which are not dependent on the recording sites (e.g. fingers, hand palms). Moreover, it is expected that new techniques will be developed using fiducials and non-fiducial based features in order to catch the best of both approaches. ECG recognition in pathological subjects is also worth of additional investigations.

Decision-making in product quality based on failure knowledge

Decision-making in product quality is an indispensable stage in product development, in order to reduce product development risk. Based on the identification of the deficiencies of quality function deployment (QFD) and failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), a novel decision-making method is presented that draws upon a knowledge network of failure scenarios. An ontological expression of failure scenarios is presented together with a framework of failure knowledge network (FKN). According to the roles of quality characteristics (QCs) in failure processing, QCs are set into three categories namely perceptible QCs, restrictive QCs, and controllable QCs, which present the monitor targets, control targets and improvement targets respectively for quality management. A mathematical model and algorithms based on the analytic network process (ANP) is introduced for calculating the priority of QCs with respect to different development scenarios. A case study is provided according to the proposed decision-making procedure based on FKN. This methodology is applied in the propeller design process to solve the problem of prioritising QCs. This paper provides a practical approach for decision-making in product quality. Copyright © 2011 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

A tudásreprezentáció és a tudásmegosztás információtechnológiai megoldásai a személyazonosság-menedzsment területén (Knowledge Representation and Sharing for Identity Management Domain)

A személyazonosság-menedzsment napjaink fontos kutatási területe mind elméleti, mind gyakorlati szempontból. A szakterületen megvalósuló együttműködés, elektronikus tudásáramoltatás és csere hosszú távon csak úgy képzelhető el, hogy az azonos módon történő értelmezést automatikus eszközök támogatják. A szerző cikkében azokat a kutatási tevékenységeket foglalja össze, amelyeket - felhasználva a tudásmenedzsment, a mesterséges intelligencia és az információtechnológia eszközeit - a személyazonosság-menedzsment terület fogalmi leképezésére, leírására használt fel. Kutatási célja olyan közös fogalmi bázis kialakítása volt személyazonosság-menedzsment területre, amely lehetővé teszi az őt körülvevő multidimenzionális környezet kezelését. A kutatás kapcsolódik a GUIDE kutatási projekthez is, amelynek a szerző résztvevője. ______________ Identity management is an important research field from theoretical and practical aspects as well. The task itself is not new, identification and authentication was necessary always in public administration and business life. Information Society offers new services for citizens, which dramatically change the way of administration and results additional risks and opportunities. The goal of the demonstrated research was to formulate a common basis for the identity management domain in order to support the management of the surrounding multidimensional environment. There is a need for capturing, mapping, processing knowledge concerning identity management in order to support reusability, interoperability; to help common sharing and understanding the domain and to avoid inconsistency. The paper summarizes research activities for the identification, conceptualisation and representation of domain knowledge related to identity management, using the results of knowledge management, artificial intelligence and information technology. I utilized the experiences of Guide project, in which I participate. The paper demonstrates, that domain ontologies could offer a proper solution for identity management domain conceptualisation.

Public school administrators' knowledge of special education law

The purpose of this study was to assess the knowledge of public school administrators with respect to special education (ESE) law. The study used a sample of 220 public school administrators. A survey instrument was developed consisting of 19 demographic questions and 20 situational scenarios. The scenarios were based on ESE issues of discipline, due process (including IEP procedures), identification, evaluation, placement, and related services. The participants had to decide whether a violation of the ESE child's rights had occurred by marking: (a) Yes, (b) No, or (c) Undecided. An analysis of the scores and demographic information was done using a two-way analysis of variance, chi-square, and crosstabs after a 77% survey response rate.^ Research questions addressed the administrators' overall level of knowledge. Comparisons were made between principals and assistant principals and differences between the levels of schooling. Exploratory questions were concerned with ESE issues deemed problematic by administrators, effects of demographic variables on survey scores, and the listing of resources utilized by administrators to access ESE information.^ The study revealed: (a) a significant difference was found when comparing the number of ESE courses taken and the score on the survey, (b) the top five resources of ESE information were the region office, school ESE department chairs, ESE teachers, county workshops, and county inservices, (c) problematic areas included discipline, evaluation procedures, placement issues, and IEP due process concerns, (d) administrators as a group did not exhibit a satisfactory knowledge of ESE law with a mean score of 12 correct and 74% of responding administrators scoring in the unsatisfactory level (below 70%), (e) across school levels, elementary administrators scored significantly higher than high school administrators, and (f) a significant implication that assistant principals consistently scored higher than principals on each scenario with a significant difference at the high school level.^ The study reveals a vital need for administrators to receive additional preparation in order to possess a basic understanding of ESE school law and how it impacts their respective schools and school districts so that they might meet professional obligations and protect the rights of all individuals involved. Recommendations for this additional administrative preparation and further research topics were discussed. ^

Attributes of identity document credibility: A synthesis of expert knowledge

In broad terms — including a thief's use of existing credit card, bank, or other accounts — the number of identity fraud victims in the United States ranges 9-10 million per year, or roughly 4% of the US adult population. The average annual theft per stolen identity was estimated at $6,383 in 2006, up approximately 22% from $5,248 in 2003; an increase in estimated total theft from $53.2 billion in 2003 to $56.6 billion in 2006. About three million Americans each year fall victim to the worst kind of identity fraud: new account fraud. Names, Social Security numbers, dates of birth, and other data are acquired fraudulently from the issuing organization, or from the victim then these data are used to create fraudulent identity documents. In turn, these are presented to other organizations as evidence of identity, used to open new lines of credit, secure loans, “flip” property, or otherwise turn a profit in a victim's name. This is much more time consuming — and typically more costly — to repair than fraudulent use of existing accounts. ^ This research borrows from well-established theoretical backgrounds, in an effort to answer the question – what is it that makes identity documents credible? Most importantly, identification of the components of credibility draws upon personal construct psychology, the underpinning for the repertory grid technique, a form of structured interviewing that arrives at a description of the interviewee’s constructs on a given topic, such as credibility of identity documents. This represents substantial contribution to theory, being the first research to use the repertory grid technique to elicit from experts, their mental constructs used to evaluate credibility of different types of identity documents reviewed in the course of opening new accounts. The research identified twenty-one characteristics, different ones of which are present on different types of identity documents. Expert evaluations of these documents in different scenarios suggest that visual characteristics are most important for a physical document, while authenticated personal data are most important for a digital document. ^

A theoretical analysis of eyewitness identification: Dual -process theory, signal detection theory and eyewitness confidence

Given the growing number of wrongful convictions involving faulty eyewitness evidence and the strong reliance by jurors on eyewitness testimony, researchers have sought to develop safeguards to decrease erroneous identifications. While decades of eyewitness research have led to numerous recommendations for the collection of eyewitness evidence, less is known regarding the psychological processes that govern identification responses. The purpose of the current research was to expand the theoretical knowledge of eyewitness identification decisions by exploring two separate memory theories: signal detection theory and dual-process theory. This was accomplished by examining both system and estimator variables in the context of a novel lineup recognition paradigm. Both theories were also examined in conjunction with confidence to determine whether it might add significantly to the understanding of eyewitness memory. ^ In two separate experiments, both an encoding and a retrieval-based manipulation were chosen to examine the application of theory to eyewitness identification decisions. Dual-process estimates were measured through the use of remember-know judgments (Gardiner & Richardson-Klavehn, 2000). In Experiment 1, the effects of divided attention and lineup presentation format (simultaneous vs. sequential) were examined. In Experiment 2, perceptual distance and lineup response deadline were examined. Overall, the results indicated that discrimination and remember judgments (recollection) were generally affected by variations in encoding quality and response criterion and know judgments (familiarity) were generally affected by variations in retrieval options. Specifically, as encoding quality improved, discrimination ability and judgments of recollection increased; and as the retrieval task became more difficult there was a shift toward lenient choosing and more reliance on familiarity. ^ The application of signal detection theory and dual-process theory in the current experiments produced predictable results on both system and estimator variables. These theories were also compared to measures of general confidence, calibration, and diagnosticity. The application of the additional confidence measures in conjunction with signal detection theory and dual-process theory gave a more in-depth explanation than either theory alone. Therefore, the general conclusion is that eyewitness identifications can be understood in a more complete manor by applying theory and examining confidence. Future directions and policy implications are discussed. ^

Attributes of Identity Document Credibility: A Synthesis of Expert Knowledge

In broad terms — including a thief's use of existing credit card, bank, or other accounts — the number of identity fraud victims in the United States ranges 9-10 million per year, or roughly 4% of the US adult population. The average annual theft per stolen identity was estimated at $6,383 in 2006, up approximately 22% from $5,248 in 2003; an increase in estimated total theft from $53.2 billion in 2003 to $56.6 billion in 2006. About three million Americans each year fall victim to the worst kind of identity fraud: new account fraud. Names, Social Security numbers, dates of birth, and other data are acquired fraudulently from the issuing organization, or from the victim then these data are used to create fraudulent identity documents. In turn, these are presented to other organizations as evidence of identity, used to open new lines of credit, secure loans, “flip” property, or otherwise turn a profit in a victim's name. This is much more time consuming — and typically more costly — to repair than fraudulent use of existing accounts. This research borrows from well-established theoretical backgrounds, in an effort to answer the question – what is it that makes identity documents credible? Most importantly, identification of the components of credibility draws upon personal construct psychology, the underpinning for the repertory grid technique, a form of structured interviewing that arrives at a description of the interviewee’s constructs on a given topic, such as credibility of identity documents. This represents substantial contribution to theory, being the first research to use the repertory grid technique to elicit from experts, their mental constructs used to evaluate credibility of different types of identity documents reviewed in the course of opening new accounts. The research identified twenty-one characteristics, different ones of which are present on different types of identity documents. Expert evaluations of these documents in different scenarios suggest that visual characteristics are most important for a physical document, while authenticated personal data are most important for a digital document.

Leader's reflections on knowledge, knowing and not knowing: an analysis of change over time

One commonality across the leadership and knowledge related literature is the apparent neglect of the leaders own knowledge. This thesis sought to address this issue through conducting exploratory research into the content of leader’s personal knowledge and the process of knowing it. The empirical inquiry adopted a longitudinal approach, with interviews conducted at two separate time periods with an extended time-interval between each. The findings from this research contrast with images of leadership which suggest leaders are in control of what they know, that they own their own knowledge. The picture that emerges is one of individuals struggling to keep abreast of the knowledge required to deal with the dynamics and uncertainties of organisational life. Much knowledge is tacit, provisional and perishable and the related process of knowing more organic, evolutionary and informal than any structured or orchestrated approach. The collective nature of knowing is a central feature, with these leaders embedded in networks of uncontrollable relationships. In view of the indeterminate nature of knowing, the boundary between what is known and what one needs to know is both amorphous and ephemeral, and the likelihood of knowledge-absences is escalated. A significant finding in this regard is the identification of two critical points where not-knowing is most likely (entry and exit from role) and the differing implications of each. Overtime the knowledge that is legitimised or prioritised is significantly altered as these leaders replace the dogmas that were previously held in high esteem with the lessons from their own experience. This experience brings increased self-knowledge and a deeper appreciation of the values and morals instilled in their early lives. In view of the above findings, this study makes theoretical contribution to a number of core literatures: authentic leadership, role transition and knowledge-absences. In terms of leadership development, the findings point to the necessity to prepare leaders for the challenges they will encounter at the pivotal stages of the leadership role.