Aviation fuel gauging sensor utilizing multiple diaphragm sensors incorporating polymer optical fiber Bragg gratings

A high-performance fuel gauging sensor is described that uses five diaphragm-based pressure sensors, which are monitored using a linear array of polymer optical fiber Bragg gratings. The sensors were initially characterized using water, revealing a sensitivity of 98 pm/cm for four of the sensors and 86 pm/cm for the fifth. The discrepancy in the sensitivity of the fifth sensor has been explained as being a result of the annealing of the other four sensors. Initial testing in JET A-1 aviation fuel revealed the unsuitability of silicone rubber diaphragms for prolonged usage in fuel. A second set of sensors manufactured with a polyurethane-based diaphragm showed no measurable deterioration over a three month period immersed in fuel. These sensors exhibited a sensitivity of 39 pm/cm, which is less than the silicone rubber devices due to the stiffer nature of the polyurethane material used.

Kamatlábak és árszint kis, nyitott gazdaságban = Interest rates and price levels in a small open economy

A tanulmány azt vizsgálja, hogy a különböző kamatlábaknak milyen hatásai vannak az árszintre, illetve a nominális árakra egy nyitott elsősorban kis, nyitott gazdaságban szabad tőkeáramlás mellett. Míg a zárt gazdaságban csupán a nominális és reálkamatláb megkülönböztetése a lényeges, nyitott gazdaságban a kamatlábak vizsgálatakor meg kell fontolnunk a kamatlábparitás kérdését is. Tisztáznunk kell a reálkamatláb összetevőit, amelyben fontos szerepet kap mind az árfolyam-begyűrűzés (pass-through), mind pedig a kockázati prémium mértéke. A kamatlábhatások vizsgálatakor először azt a mechanizmust elemezzük, amely által a kamatláb befolyásolja a tartós jószágok költségét (explicit vagy implicit bérleti díját). Másodszor az exportszektor termelési döntése és a hazai kamatláb viszonyára vonatkozó mechanizmust vizsgáljuk. Belátjuk, hogy az exportáló szektor döntései függetlenek lehetnek a belföldi kamatlábaktól. Harmadszor bizonyos árazási viselkedéseket tanulmányozunk. Bebizonyítjuk, hogy a kamatláb olyan növelése, ami nem változtat a jelenlegi árfolyamon, árszintnövelő az importőr ország számára. Megfogalmazható az a nézet, hogy ha van is a kamatlábaknak keresleti hatása a zárt gazdaságban, a kis, nyitott gazdaságban ez vélhetőleg sokkal gyengébb. _____ The study examines what effects various interest rates have on the price level and nomi-nal prices in an open (primarily small) economy with free flows of capital. A closed economy calls for a distinction only between nominal and real rates of interest, but in an open economy, questions of interest-rate parity have to be considered as well. It is nec-essary to clarify the factors behind the real interest rate important for price-level pass-through and for the scale of risk premium. Analysis of interest-rate effects begins with the mechanism whereby the interest rate influences the cost of fixed assets (explicit or implicit rents). Secondly, the mechanism behind the relation of export-sector production decisions and domestic interest rates is examined. It emerges that decisions of the export sector are independent of domestic interest rates. Thirdly, certain types of pricing behav-iour are studied. It is shown that a rise in the interest rate that does not alter the present exchange rate is a price-raising factor for the importing country. It can be assumed that if the interest rate has a demand effect in a closed economy, this will presumably be much weaker in a small open economy.

Solvency risk minimizing guaranteed returns in life insurance

Return guarantee constitutes a key ingredient of classical life insurance premium calculation. In the current low interest rate environment insurers face increasingly strong financial incentives to reduce guaranteed returns embedded in life insurance contracts. However, return guarantee lowering efforts are restrained by associated demand effects, since a higher guaranteed return makes the net price of the insurance cover lower. This tradeoff between possibly higher future insurance obligations and the possibility of a larger demand for life insurance products can theoretically also be considered when determining optimal guaranteed returns. In this paper, optimality of return guarantee levels is analyzed from a solvency point of view. Availability and some other properties of optimal solutions for guaranteed returns are explored and compared in a simple model for two measures of solvency risk (company-level and contract-level VaR). The paper concludes that a solvency risk minimizing optimal guaranteed return may theoretically exist, although its practical availability can be impeded by economic and regulatory constraints.

Secondary stakeholders as agents of influence: Three essays on political risk, reputation, and multinational performance

Organizational researchers have recently taken an interest in the ways in which social movements, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and other secondary stakeholders attempt to influence corporate behavior. Scholars, however, have yet to carefully probe the link between secondary stakeholder legal action and target firm stock market performance. This is puzzling given the sharp rise in NGO-initiated civil lawsuits against corporations in recent years for alleged overseas human rights abuses and environmental misconduct. Furthermore, few studies have considered how such lawsuits impact a target firm’s intangible assets, namely its image and reputation. Structured in the form of three essays, this dissertation examined the antecedents and consequences of secondary stakeholder legal activism in both conceptual and empirical settings. ^ Essay One argued that conventional approaches to understanding political risk fail to account for the reputational risks to multinational enterprises (MNEs) posed by transnational networks of human rights NGOs employing litigation-based strategies. It offered a new framework for understanding this emerging challenge to multinational corporate activity. Essay Two empirically tested the relationship between the filing of human rights-related civil lawsuits and corporate stock market performance using an event study methodology and regression analysis. The statistical analysis performed showed that target firms experience a significant decline in share price upon filing and that both industry and nature of the lawsuit are significantly and negatively related to shareholder wealth. Essay Three drew upon social movement and social identity theories to develop and test a set of hypotheses on how secondary stakeholder groups select their targets for human rights-related civil lawsuits. The results of a logistic regression model offered support for the proposition that MNE targets are chosen based on both interest and identity factors. The results of these essays suggest that legal action initiated by secondary stakeholder groups is a new and salient threat to multinational business and that firms doing business in countries with weak political institutions should factor this into corporate planning and take steps to mitigate their exposure to such risks.^

Influência do jet lag social em marcadores circadianos de atividade - repouso e cardíaco em estudantes de medicina

Studies reveal that in recent decades a decrease in sleep duration has occurred. Social commitments, such as work and school are often not aligned to the "biological time" of individuals. Added to this, there is a reduced force of zeitgeber caused by less exposure to daylight and larger exposure to evenings. This causes a chronic sleep debt that is offset in a free days. Indeed, a restriction and extent of sleep called "social Jet lag" occurs weekly. Sleep deprivation has been associated to obesity, cancer, and cardiovascular risk. It is suggested that the autonomic nervous system is a pathway that connects sleep problems to cardiovascular diseases. However, beyond the evidence demonstrated by studies using models of acute and controlled sleep deprivation, studies are needed to investigate the effects of chronic sleep deprivation as it occurs in the social jet lag. The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of social jet lag in circadian rest-activity markers and heart function in medical students. It is a cross-sectional, observational study conducted in the Laboratory of Neurobiology and Biological Rhythmicity (LNRB) at the Department of Physiology UFRN. Participated in the survey medical students enrolled in the 1st semester of their course at UFRN. Instruments for data collection: Munich Chronotype Questionnaire, Morningness Eveningness Questionnaire of Horne and Östberg, Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index, Epworth Sleepiness Scale, Actimeter; Heart rate monitor. Analysed were descriptive variables of sleep, nonparametric (IV60, IS60, L5 and M10) and cardiac indexes of time domain, frequency (LF, HF LF / HF) and nonlinear (SD1, SD2, SD1 / SD2). Descriptive, comparative and correlative statistical analysis was performed with SPSS software version 20. 41 students participated in the study, 48.8% (20) females and 51.2% (21) males, 19.63 ± 2.07 years. The social jet lag had an average of 02: 39h ± 00:55h, 82.9% (34) with social jet lag ≥ 1h and there was a negative correlation with the Munich chronotype score indicating greater sleep deprivation in subjects prone to eveningness. Poor sleep quality was detected in 90.2% (37) (X2 = 26.56, p <0.001) and 56.1% (23) excessive daytime sleepiness (X2 = 0.61, p = 0.435). Significant differences were observed in the values of LFnu, HFnu and LF / HF between the groups of social jet lag <2h and ≥ 2h and correlation of the social jet lag with LFnu (rs = 0.354, p = 0.023), HFnu (rs = - 0.354 , p = 0.023) and LF / HF (r = 0.355, p = 0.023). There was also a negative association between IV60 and indexes in the time domain and non-linear. It is suggested that chronic sleep deprivation may be associated with increased sympathetic activation promoting greater cardiovascular risk.

Pricing Automobile Fuel Economy : A New Hedonic Approach

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The food choice at work study: effectiveness of complex workplace dietary interventions on dietary behaviours and diet-related disease risk - study protocol for a clustered controlled trial

Background: Dietary behaviour interventions have the potential to reduce diet-related disease. Ample opportunity exists to implement these interventions in the workplace. The overall aim is to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of complex dietary interventions focused on environmental dietary modification alone or in combination with nutrition education in large manufacturing workplace settings. Methods/design: A clustered controlled trial involving four large multinational manufacturing workplaces in Cork will be conducted. The complex intervention design has been developed using the Medical Research Council's framework and the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) guidelines and will be reported using the TREND statement for the transparent reporting of evaluations with non-randomized designs. It will draw on a soft paternalistic 'nudge' theoretical perspective. It will draw on a soft paternalistic "nudge" theoretical perspective. Nutrition education will include three elements: group presentations, individual nutrition consultations and detailed nutrition information. Environmental dietary modification will consist of five elements: (a) restriction of fat, saturated fat, sugar and salt, (b) increase in fibre, fruit and vegetables, (c) price discounts for whole fresh fruit, (d) strategic positioning of healthier alternatives and (e) portion size control. No intervention will be offered in workplace A (control). Workplace B will receive nutrition education. Workplace C will receive nutrition education and environmental dietary modification. Workplace D will receive environmental dietary modification alone. A total of 448 participants aged 18 to 64 years will be selected randomly. All permanent, full-time employees, purchasing at least one main meal in the workplace daily, will be eligible. Changes in dietary behaviours, nutrition knowledge, health status with measurements obtained at baseline and at intervals of 3 to 4 months, 7 to 9 months and 13 to 16 months will be recorded. A process evaluation and cost-effectiveness economic evaluation will be undertaken. Discussion: A 'Food Choice at Work' toolbox (concise teaching kit to replicate the intervention) will be developed to inform and guide future researchers, workplace stakeholders, policy makers and the food industry. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials, ISRCTN35108237.

Common polygenic variation enhances risk prediction for Alzheimer's disease.

The identification of subjects at high risk for Alzheimer’s disease is important for prognosis and early intervention. We investigated the polygenic architecture of Alzheimer’s disease and the accuracy of Alzheimer’s disease prediction models, including and excluding the polygenic component in the model. This study used genotype data from the powerful dataset comprising 17 008 cases and 37 154 controls obtained from the International Genomics of Alzheimer’s Project (IGAP). Polygenic score analysis tested whether the alleles identified to associate with disease in one sample set were significantly enriched in the cases relative to the controls in an independent sample. The disease prediction accuracy was investigated in a subset of the IGAP data, a sample of 3049 cases and 1554 controls (for whom APOE genotype data were available) by means of sensitivity, specificity, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and positive and negative predictive values. We observed significant evidence for a polygenic component enriched in Alzheimer’s disease (P = 4.9 × 10−26). This enrichment remained significant after APOE and other genome-wide associated regions were excluded (P = 3.4 × 10−19). The best prediction accuracy AUC = 78.2% (95% confidence interval 77–80%) was achieved by a logistic regression model with APOE, the polygenic score, sex and age as predictors. In conclusion, Alzheimer’s disease has a significant polygenic component, which has predictive utility for Alzheimer’s disease risk and could be a valuable research tool complementing experimental designs, including preventative clinical trials, stem cell selection and high/low risk clinical studies. In modelling a range of sample disease prevalences, we found that polygenic scores almost doubles case prediction from chance with increased prediction at polygenic extremes.

Analytical and Experimental Investigation of an Ammonia/Air Opposed Reacting Jet

The point-by-point properties of an ammonia/air opposed-reacting-jet flowfield are described by solving the governing partial differential elliptic equations. Analytical descriptions of the reacting flowfield are compared to experimentally measured profiles of temperature and composition. Calculated distributions of stream function, temperature and fuel mole fraction are also presented. © 1972, Taylor & Francis Group, LLC. All rights reserved.

Essays in asset price bubbles

This thesis studies the field of asset price bubbles. It is comprised of three independent chapters. Each of these chapters either directly or indirectly analyse the existence or implications of asset price bubbles. The type of bubbles assumed in each of these chapters is consistent with rational expectations. Thus, the kind of price bubbles investigated here are known as rational bubbles in the literature. The following describes the three chapters. Chapter 1: This chapter attempts to explain the recent US housing price bubble by developing a heterogeneous agent endowment economy asset pricing model with risky housing, endogenous collateral and defaults. Investment in housing is subject to an idiosyncratic risk and some mortgages are defaulted in equilibrium. We analytically derive the leverage or the endogenous loan to value ratio. This variable comes from a limited participation constraint in a one period mortgage contract with monitoring costs. Our results show that low values of housing investment risk produces a credit easing effect encouraging excess leverage and generates credit driven rational price bubbles in the housing good. Conversely, high values of housing investment risk produces a credit crunch characterized by tight borrowing constraints, low leverage and low house prices. Furthermore, the leverage ratio was found to be procyclical and the rate of defaults countercyclical consistent with empirical evidence. Chapter 2: It is widely believed that financial assets have considerable persistence and are susceptible to bubbles. However, identification of this persistence and potential bubbles is not straightforward. This chapter tests for price bubbles in the United States housing market accounting for long memory and structural breaks. The intuition is that the presence of long memory negates price bubbles while the presence of breaks could artificially induce bubble behaviour. Hence, we use procedures namely semi-parametric Whittle and parametric ARFIMA procedures that are consistent for a variety of residual biases to estimate the value of the long memory parameter, d, of the log rent-price ratio. We find that the semi-parametric estimation procedures robust to non-normality and heteroskedasticity errors found far more bubble regions than parametric ones. A structural break was identified in the mean and trend of all the series which when accounted for removed bubble behaviour in a number of regions. Importantly, the United States housing market showed evidence for rational bubbles at both the aggregate and regional levels. In the third and final chapter, we attempt to answer the following question: To what extend should individuals participate in the stock market and hold risky assets over their lifecycle? We answer this question by employing a lifecycle consumption-portfolio choice model with housing, labour income and time varying predictable returns where the agents are constrained in the level of their borrowing. We first analytically characterize and then numerically solve for the optimal asset allocation on the risky asset comparing the return predictability case with that of IID returns. We successfully resolve the puzzles and find equity holding and participation rates close to the data. We also find that return predictability substantially alter both the level of risky portfolio allocation and the rate of stock market participation. High factor (dividend-price ratio) realization and high persistence of factor process indicative of stock market bubbles raise the amount of wealth invested in risky assets and the level of stock market participation, respectively. Conversely, rare disasters were found to bring down these rates, the change being severe for investors in the later years of the life-cycle. Furthermore, investors following time varying returns (return predictability) hedged background risks significantly better than the IID ones.

Respiratory effects of biomass fuel combustion on rural fish smokers in a Nigerian fishing settlement: a case control study.

Backgroud: The aim was to study the prevalence of respiratory symptoms and assess the lung function of fish smokers in Nigeria. Methods: A case control study was done among fish smokers in Nigeria. Women aged 15 years or older (n=210) involved in fish smoking and equal number of matched controls were interviewed on respiratory symptoms and their peak expiratory flow rate (PEFR) measured. Data was analysed using chi square test, student\'s t-test and odd ratios. Results: Both groups were similar in their personal characteristics. The test group had significantly increased occurrence of sneezing (153; 72.86%), catarrh (159; 75.71%), cough (138; 65.71%) and chest pain (59; 28.10%) compared with the control group, odds ratio (OR) 2.49, 95% confidence interval CI (1.62-3.82), P < 0.001), OR 3.77,95% CI (2.44- 5.85), P < 0.001, OR 3.38, 95% CI (2.22-5.15), P < 0.001, and OR 6.45,95% CI (3.22-13.15), P < 0.001, respectively. The mean PEFR of 321±58.93 L/min among the fish smokers was significantly lower than 400±42.92 L/min among the controls (p = 0.0001). Conclusion: Fish smokers have increased risk of respiratory symptoms and reduced pulmonary function. There is a need for protective equipment and periodic evaluation.

Reputational risk of banks : a study on the effects of regulatory sanctions for major european banks

Mestrado em Finanças

Risk premiumin the global creditMarkets: 2006-2012

¿What have we learnt from the 2006-2012 crisis, including events such as the subprime crisis, the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers or the European sovereign debt crisis, among others? It is usually assumed that in firms that have a CDS quotation, this CDS is the key factor in establishing the credit premiumrisk for a new financial asset. Thus, the CDS is a key element for any investor in taking relative value opportunities across a firm’s capital structure. In the first chapter we study the most relevant aspects of the microstructure of the CDS market in terms of pricing, to have a clear idea of how this market works. We consider that such an analysis is a necessary point for establishing a solid base for the rest of the chapters in order to carry out the different empirical studies we perform. In its document “Basel III: A global regulatory framework for more resilient banks and banking systems”, Basel sets the requirement of a capital charge for credit valuation adjustment (CVA) risk in the trading book and its methodology for the computation for the capital requirement. This regulatory requirement has added extra pressure for in-depth knowledge of the CDS market and this motivates the analysis performed in this thesis. The problem arises in estimating of the credit risk premium for those counterparties without a directly quoted CDS in the market. How can we estimate the credit spread for an issuer without CDS? In addition to this, given the high volatility period in the credit market in the last few years and, in particular, after the default of Lehman Brothers on 15 September 2008, we observe the presence of big outliers in the distribution of credit spread in the different combinations of rating, industry and region. After an exhaustive analysis of the results from the different models studied, we have reached the following conclusions. It is clear that hierarchical regression models fit the data much better than those of non-hierarchical regression. Furthermore,we generally prefer the median model (50%-quantile regression) to the mean model (standard OLS regression) due to its robustness when assigning the price to a new credit asset without spread,minimizing the “inversion problem”. Finally, an additional fundamental reason to prefer the median model is the typical "right skewness" distribution of CDS spreads...

PRICE TRANSMISSION ON THE MILK PORTUGUESE MARKET

This paper aims to analyze the milk prices transmission along the food chain in Portugal, temporally and spatially. The results show that the volatility on retail prices is small but happens after 2008. The farm gate price does not change when the price of package milk changes. In mainland, price transmission does not happen but for Azores the transmission is effective. In the intensive systems, the risk to collapse is bigger than in the extensive systems, where the volatility of prices reflects the process of markets adjustment.

The EU ban on uncovered sovereign credit default swaps: assessing impacts on liquidity, volatility and price discovery

This article addresses the effects of the prohibition against naked CDS buying implemented by the European Union in November 2012. Three aspects of market quality are analyzed: liquidity, volatility, and price informativeness. Overall, our results suggest that the ban produced negative effects on liquidity and price informativeness. First, we find that in territories within the scope of the EU regulation, the bid–ask spreads on sovereign CDS contracts rose after the ban, but fell for countries outside its bounds. Open interest declined for both groups of CDS reference entities in our sample, but significantly more in the constraint group. Price delay increased more prominently for countries affected by the ban, whereas price precision decreased for these countries while increasing for CDSs written on other sovereign reference entities. Most notably, our findings indicate that hese negative effects were more pronounced amid reference entities exhibiting lower credit risk. With respect to volatility, the evidence suggests that the ban was successful in stabilizing the CDS market in that volatility decreased, particularly for contracts written on riskier CDS entities.