Jackknife for bias reduction in predictive regressions

One of the fundamental econometric models in finance is predictive regression. The standard least squares method produces biased coefficient estimates when the regressor is persistent and its innovations are correlated with those of the dependent variable. This article proposes a general and convenient method based on the jackknife technique to tackle the estimation problem. The proposed method reduces the bias for both single- and multiple-regressor models and for both short- and long-horizon regressions. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by simulations. An empirical application to equity premium prediction using the dividend yield and the short rate highlights the differences between the results by the standard approach and those by the bias-reduced estimator. The significant predictive variables under the ordinary least squares become insignificant after adjusting for the finite-sample bias. These discrepancies suggest that bias reduction in predictive regressions is important in practical applications.

The effect of a high fat meal on postprandial arterial stiffness in men with obesity and type 2 diabetes

Context: Postprandial dysmetabolism is emerging as an important cardiovascular risk factor. Augmentation index (AIx) is a measure of systemic arterial stiffness and independently predicts cardiovascular outcome. Objective: The objective of this study was to assess the effect of a standardized high-fat meal on metabolic parameters and AIx in 1) lean, 2) obese nondiabetic, and 3) subjects with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Design and Setting: Male subjects (lean, n = 8; obese, n = 10; and T2DM, n = 10) were studied for 6 h after a high-fat meal and water control. Glucose, insulin, triglycerides, and AIx (radial applanation tonometry) were measured serially to determine the incremental area under the curve (iAUC). Results: AIx decreased in all three groups after a high-fat meal. A greater overall postprandial reduction in AIx was seen in lean and T2DM compared with obese subjects (iAUC, 2251 +/- 1204, 2764 +/- 1102, and 1187 +/- 429% . min, respectively; P < 0.05). The time to return to baseline AIx was significantly delayed in subjects with T2DM (297 +/- 68 min) compared with lean subjects (161 +/- 88 min; P < 0.05). There was a significant correlation between iAUC AIx and iAUC triglycerides (r = 0.50; P < 0.05). Conclusions: Obesity is associated with an attenuated overall postprandial decrease in AIx. Subjects with T2DM have a preserved, but significantly prolonged, reduction in AIx after a high-fat meal. The correlation between AIx and triglycerides suggests that postprandial dysmetabolism may impact on vascular dynamics. The markedly different response observed in the obese subjects compared with those with T2DM was unexpected and warrants additional evaluation.

Risk factors to predict the incidence of surgical adverse events following open or laparoscopic surgery for apparent early stage endometrial cancer: results from a randomised controlled trial

Aims: To identify risk factors for major Adverse Events (AEs) and to develop a nomogram to predict the probability of such AEs in individual patients who have surgery for apparent early stage endometrial cancer. Methods: We used data from 753 patients who were randomized to either total laparoscopic hysterectomy or total abdominal hysterectomy in the LACE trial. Serious adverse events that prolonged hospital stay or postoperative adverse events (using common terminology criteria 3+, CTCAE V3) were considered major AEs. We analyzed pre-surgical characteristics that were associated with the risk of developing major AEs by multivariate logistic regression. We identified a parsimonious model by backward stepwise logistic regression. The six most significant or clinically important variables were included in the nomogram to predict the risk of major AEs within 6 weeks of surgery and the nomogram was internally validated. Results: Overall, 132 (17.5%) patients had at least one major AE. An open surgical approach (laparotomy), higher Charlson’s medical co-morbidities score, moderately differentiated tumours on curettings, higher baseline ECOG score, higher body mass index and low haemoglobin levels were associated with AE and were used in the nomogram. The bootstrap corrected concordance index of the nomogram was 0.63 and it showed good calibration. Conclusions: Six pre-surgical factors independently predicted the risk of major AEs. This research might form the basis to develop risk reduction strategies to minimize the risk of AEs among patients undergoing surgery for apparent early stage endometrial cancer.

Photocatalytic reduction of carbon dioxide to formic acid, formaldehyde, and methanol using dye-sensitized TiO2 film

A bifunctionalized TiO2 film containing a dye-sensitized zone and a catalysis zone is designed for visible-light photocatalytic reduction of CO2 to chemicals continuously. Charge separation can be accomplished with electron transferring to catalysis zone and positive charge transforming to anode. Highly efficient conversion of CO2 to formic acid, formaldehyde, and methanol is achieved through the transferring electrons on conduction bands (CB) of TiO2. Reduction of CO2 and O2 evolution take place in separated solutions on different catalysts. The separated solution carried out in this photo-reactor system can avoid CO2 reduction products being oxidized by anode. The yields of reduction products were enhanced remarkably by external electrical power. This study provides not only a new photocatalytic system but also a potential of renewable energy source via carbon dioxide.

Using the index for inclusion to develop inclusive school communities

This chapter provides an overview of how school communities can work together in processes or review and development to strive towards a more inclusive approach to education. The writers of this chapter have been using a resource called the Index for Inclusion (Booth & Ainscow, 2005, 2011) for a number of years in Australia and in a pilot trail in New Zealand to support education staff in processes of review, with the aim to increase the participation and learning of all students. The resource supports the development of collaborative community processes and defines inclusion as ‘putting values into action’ (Booth & Ainscow, 2011, p.18). The process of review and development for more inclusive and socially just schools supports the development of a school culture, policy and practice where people are valued and treated with respect for their varied knowledge and experiences. In our experience, this resource has been useful to challenge our thinking about education in school communities and in region/districts about inclusive school development. We suggest the Index framework is broad enough to be used in a range of settings and countries. The resource is also useful for pre-service and in-service teacher development to provoke reflection and discussion about inclusion. This chapter provides an overview of the dimensions and framework that inform the Index of Inclusion. We discuss how the Index can be used in school contexts and draw on our own experience to give real examples of how teachers, paraprofessionals, students, principals and parents have experienced the Index when used in their local school communities in Australia and New Zealand. The chapter concludes with some points for discussion to challenge the status quo in schools and to inspire teachers to work towards a more socially just society through making changes at a school level.

An index of best practice performance reporting for Malaysian local authorities

Abstract Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to identify stakeholders’ expectations of information to be conveyed in local authorities’ annual reports and to develop an index of best practice performance reporting. Design/methodology/approach – The paper describes the development of a disclosure index emphasizing the public interest aspect of reporting and the need to provide relevant and meaningful information to stakeholders. The index was crafted from a public accountability perspective and based on the expectations of stakeholders as reconciled and validated by a Delphi panel of experts. Findings – The wide scope of information that was dentified as being important for disclosure by local authorities is consistent with the public accountability paradigm which requires the reporting of comprehensive information (both financial and non financial), about the condition, performance, activities and progress of the entity. Originality/value – The research posits a model of best practice performance reporting for Malaysian, and other, local authorities to meet the need for greater accountability by these entities.

CCI-CCI Creative City Index 2012

The CCI-Creative City Index was commissioned in 2010 by the Beijing Academy of Science & Technology's Beijing Research Center for the Science of Science. John Hartley was asked to develop a new creative global city index. The brief was to improve on the existing indexes with a specific focus on creative industries and the sources of creative development. This report, by John Hartley, Jason Potts, Trent MacDonald, with Chris Erkunt and Carl Kufleitner, sets out the new model we have developed, which we call the CCI Creative City Index (CCI-CCI). It presents the results of a pilot application of the index to six cities: London, Cardiff, Berlin, Bremen, Melbourne and Brisbane. The index incorporates many elements from other global and creative city indexes, but also adds several new dimensions relating to creative industries scope, micro-productivity, and the economy of attention. The report and Excel spreadsheets of index calculations can be found on this site.

Empirical analysis of the effect of dimension reduction and word order on semantic vectors

The aim of this paper is to provide a comparison of various algorithms and parameters to build reduced semantic spaces. The effect of dimension reduction, the stability of the representation and the effect of word order are examined in the context of the five algorithms bearing on semantic vectors: Random projection (RP), singular value decom- position (SVD), non-negative matrix factorization (NMF), permutations and holographic reduced representations (HRR). The quality of semantic representation was tested by means of synonym finding task using the TOEFL test on the TASA corpus. Dimension reduction was found to improve the quality of semantic representation but it is hard to find the optimal parameter settings. Even though dimension reduction by RP was found to be more generally applicable than SVD, the semantic vectors produced by RP are somewhat unstable. The effect of encoding word order into the semantic vector representation via HRR did not lead to any increase in scores over vectors constructed from word co-occurrence in context information. In this regard, very small context windows resulted in better semantic vectors for the TOEFL test.

Validity and use of the UV index : Report from the UVI working group, Schloss Hohenkammer, Germany, 5-7 December 2011

The adequacy of the UV Index (UVI), a simple measure of ambient solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation, has been questioned on the basis of recent scientific data on the importance of vitamin D for human health, the mutagenic capacity of radiation in the UVA wavelength, and limitations in the behavioral impact of the UVI as a public awareness tool. A working group convened by ICNIRP and WHO met to assess whether modifications of the UVI were warranted and to discuss ways of improving its effectiveness as a guide to healthy sun-protective behavior. A UV Index greater than 3 was confirmed as indicating ambient UV levels at which harmful sun exposure and sunburns could occur and hence as the threshold for promoting preventive messages. There is currently insufficient evidence about the quantitative relationship of sun exposure, vitamin D, and human health to include vitamin D considerations in sun protection recommendations. The role of UVA in sunlight-induced dermal immunosuppression and DNA damage was acknowledged, but the contribution of UVA to skin carcinogenesis could not be quantified precisely. As ambient UVA and UVB levels mostly vary in parallel in real life situations, any minor modification of the UVI weighting function with respect to UVA-induced skin cancer would not be expected to have a significant impact on the UV Index. Though it has been shown that the UV Index can raise awareness of the risk of UV radiation to some extent, the UVI does not appear to change attitudes to sun protection or behavior in the way it is presently used. Changes in the UVI itself were not warranted based on these findings, but rather research testing health behavior models, including the roles of self-efficacy and self-affirmation in relation to intention to use sun protection among different susceptible groups, should be carried out to develop more successful strategies toward improving sun protection behavior. Health Phys. 103(3):301-306; 2012

Identification of copper species present in Cu-ZSM-5 catalysts for NOx reduction

The structure of Cu-ZSM-5 catalysts that show activity for direct NO decomposition and selective catalytic reduction of NOx by hydrocarbons has been investigated by a multitude of modern surface analysis and spectroscopy techniques including X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, thermogravimetric analysis, and in situ Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy. A series of four catalysts were prepared by exchange of Na-ZSM-5 with dilute copper acetate, and the copper loading was controlled by variation of the solution pH. Underexchanged catalysts contained isolated Cu2+OH-(H2O) species and as the copper loading was increased Cu2+ ions incorporated into the zeolite lattice appeared. The sites at which the latter two copper species were located were fundamentally different. The Cu2+OH-(H2O) moieties were bound to two lattice oxygen ions and associated with one aluminum framework species. In contrast, the Cu2+ ions were probably bound to four lattice oxygen ions and associated with two framework aluminum ions. Once the Cu-ZSM-5 samples attained high levels of exchange, the development of [Cu(μ-OH)2Cu]n2+OH-(H2O) species along with a small concentration of Cu(OH)2 was observed. On activation in helium to 500°C the Cu2+OH-(H2O) species transformed into Cu2+O- and Cu+ moieties, whereas the Cu2+ ions were apparently unaffected by this treatment (apart from the loss of ligated water molecules). Calcination of the precursors resulted in the formation of Cu2+O2- and a one-dimensional CuO species. Temperature-programmed desorption studies revealed that oxygen was removed from the latter two species at 407 and 575°C, respectively. © 1999 Academic Press.

Oxide reduction in NiO-containing solid solution systems during transmission electron microscopy

The effects of electron irradiation on NiO-containing solid solution systems are described. Partially hydrated NiO solid solutions, e. g. , NiO-MgO, undergo surface reduction to Ni metal after examination by TEM. This surface layer results in the formation of Moire interference patterns.

The use of hypnosis in labor and delivery : a preliminary study

Self-hypnosis was taught to 87 obstetric patients (HYP) and was not taught to 56 other patients (CNTRL), all delivered by the same family physician, in order to determine whether the use of self-hypnosis by low-risk obstetric patients leads to fewer technologic interventions during their deliveries or greater satisfaction of parturients with their delivery experience or both. The outcomes of the deliveries of these two groups were compared, and the HYP group was compared to 352 low-risk patients delivered by other family physicians at the same hospital (WCH). Questionnaires were mailed postpartum to 156 patients, all delivered by the same family physician, to determine satisfaction with delivery using the Labor and Delivery Satisfaction Index (LADSI). The hypnosis group showed a significant reduction in the number of epidurals (11.4% less than CNTRL and 17.9% less than WCH, p < 0.05) and the use of intravenous lines (18.5% less for both, p < 0.05). The number of episiotomies was significantly less in the HYP group compared to WCH (15.9%, p < 0.05) and 11.5% less when compared to CNTRL. The tear rate was not statistically different. Combined use of the intervention triad (epidural–forceps–episiotomy) was less for HYP than for CNTRL (15.8% less) and WCH (10.2% less, p < 0.05). More deliveries were done in the labor room with HYP than CNTRL (21%, p < 0.05). The second stage was shortened by 10 min (HYP vs CNTRL). Overall satisfaction of HYP and CNTRL patients was similar and generally favorable.

Perceived barriers to healthy lifestyle activities in midlife and older Australian women with type 2 diabetes

Purpose: Type 2 diabetes is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in midlife and older Australian women with known modifiable risk factors for type 2 diabetes including smoking, nutrition, physical activity and obesity. In Australia little research has been done to investigate the perceived barriers to healthy lifestyle activities in midlife and older women with type 2 diabetes. The primary aim of this study was to explore the level and type of perceived barriers to health promotion activities. The secondary aim was to explore the relationship of perceived barriers to smoking behaviour, fruit and vegetable intake, physical activity, and body mass index. Methods: The study was a cross sectional survey of women, aged over 45 with type 2 diabetes, attending metropolitan community health clinics (N = 41). Data was collected from self-report questionnaire and analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics. Results: Women in the study had average total barriers scores similar to those reported in the literature for women with a range of physical disabilities and illnesses. The leading barriers for this group of women were: lack of interest, concern about safety, too tired, lack of money and feeling what they do does not help. There was no association between total barriers scores and body mass index, physical activity, fruit and vegetable intake or socio-demographic variables. Conclusion: This study contributes to understanding the perceptions of midlife and older women with type 2 diabetes about the level and type of barriers to healthy lifestyle activities that they experience. Evidence from this study can be applied to inform health promotion for lifestyle risk factor reduction in women with type 2 diabetes.