Risk Index Score (RISc)

The main objective of this study was to develop and validate a computer-based statistical algorithm based on a multivariable logistic model that can be translated into a simple scoring system in order to ascertain stroke cases using hospital admission medical records data. This algorithm, the Risk Index Score (RISc), was developed using data collected prospectively by the Brain Attack Surveillance in Corpus Christ (BASIC) project. The validity of the RISc was evaluated by estimating the concordance of scoring system stroke ascertainment to stroke ascertainment accomplished by physician review of hospital admission records. The goal of this study was to develop a rapid, simple, efficient, and accurate method to ascertain the incidence of stroke from routine hospital admission hospital admission records for epidemiologic investigations. ^ The main objectives of this study were to develop and validate a computer-based statistical algorithm based on a multivariable logistic model that could be translated into a simple scoring system to ascertain stroke cases using hospital admission medical records data. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)^

Performance Evaluation of the New Connecticut Leading Employment Index Using Lead Profiles and BVAR Models

Dua and Miller (1996) created leading and coincident employment indexes for the state of Connecticut, following Moore's (1981) work at the national level. The performance of the Dua-Miller indexes following the recession of the early 1990s fell short of expectations. This paper performs two tasks. First, it describes the process of revising the Connecticut Coincident and Leading Employment Indexes. Second, it analyzes the statistical properties and performance of the new indexes by comparing the lead profiles of the new and old indexes as well as their out-of-sample forecasting performance, using the Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) method. The new indexes show improved performance in dating employment cycle chronologies. The lead profile test demonstrates that superiority in a rigorous, non-parametric statistic fashion. The mixed evidence on the BVAR forecasting experiments illustrates the truth in the Granger and Newbold (1986) caution that leading indexes properly predict cycle turning points and do not necessarily provide accurate forecasts except at turning points, a view that our results support.

Contraceptive use in women by body mass index categories

The prevalence of obesity has increased sharply in the United States since the mid 1970's. Obese women who become pregnant are at increased risk of pregnancy complications for both mother and fetus. This study assessed whether women in higher body mass index (BMI) categories engage in the preventive behaviors of contraception more frequently than normal weight women. It also evaluated the type of contraception used by both obese and normal weight women. The study used cross-sectional data from 7 states participating in the Family Planning Module of the 2006 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). The Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey is an annual random digit dialed telephone survey of the non-institutionalized civilian population aged 18 years and older. The Family Planning Module was administered by Arizona, Kentucky, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Oregon, and Wisconsin. Of the 4,757 women who participated in the Family Planning Module, 2,244 (53.2%) were normal weight, 1,202 (25.6%) were overweight, and 1,072 (21.2%) were obese. The majority of these women 4,115 (86.2%) reported using some type of contraception to prevent pregnancy. Six hundred forty two women (13.8%) stated they did not use any type of contraception to prevent pregnancy. Within body mass index categories, 14% of normal weight women, 13% of overweight women, and 13.4% of obese women did not use any type of contraception. Neither the bivariate analysis nor the logistic regressions found body mass index categories to be statistically associated with contraceptive use. The relationship between body mass index categories and contraceptive method was found to be statistically significant. The predictive probability graph found that women at all levels of BMI have a lower probability of using barrier contraception methods as compared to procedural and hormonal methods. Hormonal contraception methods have the highest probability of use for women with a BMI of 15 to 25. In contrast, the probability of using procedural contraception methods is relatively flat and less than hormonal methods for BMI between 15 and 25. However, the probability of using procedural contraception increases dramatically with a BMI greater than 25. At a BMI greater than 42, women have a greater than 50% probability of using procedural contraception. Although a relationship between body mass index and contraception use was not found, contraception method was found to be associated with body mass index. The reasons why normal weight women prefer hormonal contraception while overweight/obese women are more likely to use procedural methods needs to be explored. By understanding the relationship between obesity and contraception, we can hopefully decrease unintended pregnancies and overall improve pregnancy related health outcomes. To determine if relationships between contraception use/type and body mass index exist, further research needs to be conducted on a national level. ^

(Table 1) Normalized difference vegetation index in control and warming plots, Abisco Research Station

Extreme winter warming events in the sub-Arctic have caused considerable vegetation damage due to rapid changes in temperature and loss of snow cover. The frequency of extreme weather is expected to increase due to climate change thereby increasing the potential for recurring vegetation damage in Arctic regions. Here we present data on vegetation recovery from one such natural event and multiple experimental simulations in the sub-Arctic using remote sensing, handheld passive proximal sensors and ground surveys. Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) recovered fast (2 years), from the 26% decline following one natural extreme winter warming event. Recovery was associated with declines in dead Empetrum nigrum (dominant dwarf shrub) from ground surveys. However, E. nigrum healthy leaf NDVI was also reduced (16%) following this winter warming event in experimental plots (both control and treatments), suggesting that non-obvious plant damage (i.e., physiological stress) had occurred in addition to the dead E. nigrum shoots that was considered responsible for the regional 26% NDVI decline. Plot and leaf level NDVI provided useful additional information that could not be obtained from vegetation surveys and regional remote sensing (MODIS) alone. The major damage of an extreme winter warming event appears to be relatively transitory. However, potential knock-on effects on higher trophic levels (e.g., rodents, reindeer, and bear) could be unpredictable and large. Repeated warming events year after year, which can be expected under winter climate warming, could result in damage that may take much longer to recover.

Characteristics, pyrolysis, age, lithology, sedimentation rate, organic matter, and thermal alteration index at DSDP Leg 67 Holes

Marine-derived amorphous organic matter dominates hemipelagic and trench sediments in and around the Middle America Trench. These sediments contain, on the average, 1% to 2% total organic carbon (TOC), with a maximum of 4.8%. Their organic facies and richness reflect (1) the small land area of Guatemala, which contributes small amounts of higher land plant remains, and (2) high levels of marine productivity and regionally low levels of dissolved oxygen, which encourage deposition and preservation of marine organic remains. These sediments have good potential for oil but are now immature. For this reason, gaseous hydrocarbons like the ethane identified in the deep parts of the section, as at Sites 496 and 497, are probably migrating from a mature section at depth. The pelagic sediments of the downgoing Cocos Plate are lean in organic carbon and have no petroleum potential

Temperature, precipitation and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from 1982 to 2009 in the Koshi River Basin of the Middle Himalayas

The aim of this paper is to find out if there is a significant difference in using NDVI dataset processed by harmonic analysis method to evaluate its dynamic and response to climate change, compared with the original data.

An Alternative Method to Achieve Metrological Confirmation in Measurement Processes

Metrological confirmation process must be designed and implemented to ensure that metrological characteristics of the measurement system meet metrological requirements of the measurement process. The aim of this paper is to present an alternative method to the traditional metrological requirements about the relationship between tolerance and measurement uncertainty, to develop such confirmation processes. The proposed way to metrological confirmation considers a given inspection task of the measurement process into the manufacturing system, and it is based on the Index of Contamination of the Capability, ICC. Metrological confirmation process is then developed taking into account the producer risks and economic considerations on this index. As a consequence, depending on the capability of the manufacturing process, the measurement system will be or will not be in adequate state of metrological confirmation for the measurement process.