Analysis and developments of uncertainty processors for real time flood forecasting

The hydrologic risk (and the hydro-geologic one, closely related to it) is, and has always been, a very relevant issue, due to the severe consequences that may be provoked by a flooding or by waters in general in terms of human and economic losses. Floods are natural phenomena, often catastrophic, and cannot be avoided, but their damages can be reduced if they are predicted sufficiently in advance. For this reason, the flood forecasting plays an essential role in the hydro-geological and hydrological risk prevention. Thanks to the development of sophisticated meteorological, hydrologic and hydraulic models, in recent decades the flood forecasting has made a significant progress, nonetheless, models are imperfect, which means that we are still left with a residual uncertainty on what will actually happen. In this thesis, this type of uncertainty is what will be discussed and analyzed. In operational problems, it is possible to affirm that the ultimate aim of forecasting systems is not to reproduce the river behavior, but this is only a means through which reducing the uncertainty associated to what will happen as a consequence of a precipitation event. In other words, the main objective is to assess whether or not preventive interventions should be adopted and which operational strategy may represent the best option. The main problem for a decision maker is to interpret model results and translate them into an effective intervention strategy. To make this possible, it is necessary to clearly define what is meant by uncertainty, since in the literature confusion is often made on this issue. Therefore, the first objective of this thesis is to clarify this concept, starting with a key question: should be the choice of the intervention strategy to adopt based on the evaluation of the model prediction based on its ability to represent the reality or on the evaluation of what actually will happen on the basis of the information given by the model forecast? Once the previous idea is made unambiguous, the other main concern of this work is to develope a tool that can provide an effective decision support, making possible doing objective and realistic risk evaluations. In particular, such tool should be able to provide an uncertainty assessment as accurate as possible. This means primarily three things: it must be able to correctly combine all the available deterministic forecasts, it must assess the probability distribution of the predicted quantity and it must quantify the flooding probability. Furthermore, given that the time to implement prevention strategies is often limited, the flooding probability will have to be linked to the time of occurrence. For this reason, it is necessary to quantify the flooding probability within a horizon time related to that required to implement the intervention strategy and it is also necessary to assess the probability of the flooding time.

Impact of irrigation in the Po valley (Italy) on meteorological parameters through numerical simulation

Recent studies found that soil-atmosphere coupling features, through soil moisture, have been crucial to simulate well heat waves amplitude, duration and intensity. Moreover, it was found that soil moisture depletion both in Winter and Spring anticipates strong heat waves during the Summer. Irrigation in geophysical studies can be intended as an anthropogenic forcing to the soil-moisture, besides changes in land proprieties. In this study, the irrigation was add to a LAM hydrostatic model (BOLAM) and coupled with the soil. The response of the model to irrigation perturbation is analyzed during a dry Summer season. To identify a dry Summer, with overall positive temperature anomalies, an extensive climatological characterization of 2015 was done. The method included a statistical validation on the reference period distribution used to calculate the anomalies. Drought conditions were observed during Summer 2015 and previous seasons, both on the analyzed region and the Alps. Moreover July was characterized as an extreme event for the referred distribution. The numerical simulation consisted on the summer season of 2015 and two run: a control run (CTR), with the soil coupling and a perturbed run (IPR). The perturbation consists on a mask of land use created from the Cropland FAO dataset, where an irrigation water flux of 3 mm/day was applied from 6 A.M. to 9 A.M. every day. The results show that differences between CTR and IPR has a strong daily cycle. The main modifications are on the air masses proprieties, not on to the dynamics. However, changes in the circulation at the boundaries of the Po Valley are observed, and a diagnostic spatial correlation of variable differences shows that soil moisture perturbation explains well the variation observed in the 2 meters height temperature and in the latent heat fluxes.On the other hand, does not explain the spatial shift up and downslope observed during different periods of the day. Given the results, irrigation process affects the atmospheric proprieties on a larger scale than the irrigation, therefore it is important in daily forecast, particularly during hot and dry periods.

5a-Butyl-1,3,8,10-tetra-chloro-7,13-bis-(4-nitro-benzo-yl)-5a,6a,12a,12b-tetra-hydro-7H,13H-thieno[2,3-b:4,5-b']bis-(1,4-benzoxazine)

The title compound, C(34)H(24)Cl(4)N(4)O(8)S, is a linear penta-cyclic system formed of two substituted benzoxazinyl groups fused to 2-n-butyl-tetra-hydro-thio-phene. The oxazine ring, which is fused to the n-butyl-substituted side of the thio-phene ring, is in a boat conformation. The other fused oxazine ring and the tetra-hydro-thiene ring are each in an envelope conformation. The bridgehead C atom alpha to both the S and N atoms forms the flap of each envelope. This results in a twist of the penta-cyclic system such that the dihedral angle between the terminal dichloro-benzene rings is 82.92 (8)°. In the crystal, inversion-related mol-ecules form a weakly hydrogen-bonded dimer, with two C-H⋯O inter-actions between an H atom on the oxazine ring and an amide O atom. Additionally, C-H⋯O inter-actions occur between an H atom on a screw-related nitro-benzene ring and an O atom on the nitro-benzene ring of one mol-ecule. One of the Cl atoms and the butyl group are disordered over two sets of sites with occupancy ratios of 0.94 (2):0.06 (2) and 0.624 (4):0.376 (4), respectively.