Características e impacto socioeconómico del huracán Emily en Quintana Roo, Yucatán, Tamaulipas y Nuevo León en Julio de 2005

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Evolución del impacto de la tormenta Noel en República Dominicana

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Information on disaster risk management: case study of five countries: Jamaica

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Información para la gestión de riesgo de desastres: Estudio de caso de cinco países: Nicaragua

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An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the health sector In Jamaica

Climate change is a naturally occurring phenomenon in which the earth‘s climate goes through cycles of warming and cooling; these changes usually take place incrementally over millennia. Over the past century, there has been an anomalous increase in global temperature, giving rise to accelerated climate change. It is widely accepted that greenhouse gas emissions from human activities such as industries have contributed significantly to the increase in global temperatures. The existence and survival of all living organisms is predicated on the ability of the environment in which they live not only to provide conditions for their basic needs but also conditions suitable for growth and reproduction. Unabated climate change threatens the existence of biophysical and ecological systems on a planetary scale. The present study aims to examine the economic impact of climate change on health in Jamaica over the period 2011-2050. To this end, three disease conditions with known climate sensitivity and importance to Jamaican public health were modelled. These were: dengue fever, leptospirosis and gastroenteritis in children under age 5. Historical prevalence data on these diseases were obtained from the Ministry of Health Jamaica, the Caribbean Epidemiology Centre, the Climate Studies Group Mona, University of the West Indies Mona campus, and the Meteorological Service of Jamaica. Data obtained spanned a twelve-year period of 1995-2007. Monthly data were obtained for dengue and gastroenteritis, while for leptospirosis, the annual number of cases for 1995-2005 was utilized. The two SRES emission scenarios chosen were A2 and B2 using the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM) global climate model to predict climate variables for these scenarios. A business as usual (BAU) scenario was developed using historical disease data for the period 2000-2009 (dengue fever and gastroenteritis) and 1995-2005 (leptospirosis) as the reference decades for the respective diseases. The BAU scenario examined the occurrence of the diseases in the absence of climate change. It assumed that the disease trend would remain unchanged over the projected period and the number of cases of disease for each decade would be the same as the reference decade. The model used in the present study utilized predictive empirical statistical modelling to extrapolate the climate/disease relationship in time, to estimate the number of climate change-related cases under future climate change scenarios. The study used a Poisson regression model that considered seasonality and lag effects to determine the best-fit model in relation to the diseases under consideration. Zhang and others (2008), in their review of climate change and the transmission of vector-borne diseases, found that: ―Besides climatic variables, few of them have included other factors that can affect the transmission of vector-borne disease….‖ (Zhang 2008) Water, sanitation and health expenditure are key determinants of health. In the draft of the second communication to IPCC, Jamaica noted the vulnerability of public health to climate change, including sanitation and access to water (MSJ/UNDP, 2009). Sanitation, which in its broadest context includes the removal of waste (excreta, solid, or other hazardous waste), is a predictor of vector-borne diseases (e.g. dengue fever), diarrhoeal diseases (such as gastroenteritis) and zoonoses (such as leptospirosis). In conceptualizing the model, an attempt was made to include non-climate predictors of these climate-sensitive diseases. The importance of sanitation and water access to the control of dengue, gastroenteritis and leptospirosis were included in the Poisson regression model. The Poisson regression model obtained was then used to predict the number of disease cases into the future (2011-2050) for each emission scenario. After projecting the number of cases, the cost associated with each scenario was calculated using four cost components. 1. Treatment cost morbidity estimate. The treatment cost for the number of cases was calculated using reference values found in the literature for each condition. The figures were derived from studies of the cost of treatment and represent ambulatory and non-fatal hospitalized care for dengue fever and gastroenteritis. Due to the paucity of published literature on the health care cost associated with leptospirosis, only the cost of diagnosis and antibiotic therapy were included in the calculation. 2. Mortality estimates. Mortality estimates are recorded as case fatality rates. Where local data were available, these were utilized. Where these were unavailable, appropriate reference values from the literature were used. 3. Productivity loss. Productivity loss was calculated using a human capital approach, by multiplying the expected number of productive days lost by the caregiver and/or the infected person, by GDP per capita per day (US$ 14) at 2008 GDP using 2008 US$ exchange rates. 4. No-option cost. The no-option cost refers to adaptation strategies for the control of dengue fever which are ongoing and already a part of the core functions of the Vector Control Division of the Ministry of Health, Jamaica. An estimated US$ 2.1 million is utilized each year in conducting activities to prevent the post-hurricane spread of vector borne diseases and diarrhoea. The cost includes public education, fogging, laboratory support, larvicidal activities and surveillance. This no-option cost was converted to per capita estimates, using population estimates for Jamaica up to 2050 obtained from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN, 2006) and the assumption of one expected major hurricane per decade. During the decade 2000-2009, Jamaica had an average inflation of 10.4% (CIA Fact book, last updated May 2011). This average decadal inflation rate was applied to the no-option cost, which was inflated by 10% for each successive decade to adjust for changes in inflation over time.

Subtropical Cyclones over the Southwestern South Atlantic: Climatological Aspects and Case Study

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Interview with Anthony DiGiorgio

In his interview with Daniel Lee, Anthony DiGiorgio recollects the impact Hurricane Hugo had on Winthrop University and the Rock Hill Community. DiGiorgio discusses weather reports leading up to the hurricane, his personal experience with the storm, and the aftermath of Hugo on campus. DiGiorgio shares the ways in which Winthrop University assisted the community and its faculty and staff. This interview was conducted for inclusion into the Louise Pettus Archives and Special Collections Oral History Program.

Refuge Update – September/October 2008, Volume 5, Number 5

Table of Contents: Rebuilding after Hurricane Ike, page 3 Texas and Louisiana refuges were severely damaged in mid-September. A Crane Species Rebounding, page 5 At a Mississippi refuge, the world’s longest-running crane reintroduction program is succeeding. Focus on. . . Refuge System Wetlands, pages 8-13 The Refuge System manages wetlands to enhance their value for migratory waterfowl and shorebirds, threatened and endangered species and a myriad of native fish, wildlife, and plants. Fluttering Close to Extinction, page 17. Antioch Dunes Refuge is out to save the Lange’s metalmark butterfly.

Thermal structure and dynamical modeling of a Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone

In the present work, a detailed analysis of a Mediterranean TLC occurred in January 2014 has been conducted. The author is not aware of other studies regarding this particular event at the publication of this thesis. In order to outline the cyclone evolution, observational data, including weather-stations data, satellite data, radar data and photographic evidence, were collected at first. After having identified the cyclone path and its general features, the GLOBO, BOLAM and MOLOCH NWP models, developed at ISAC-CNR (Bologna), were used to simulate the phenomenon. Particular attention was paid on the Mediterranean phase as well as on the Atlantic phase, since the cyclone showed a well defined precursor up to 3 days before the minimum formation in the Alboran Sea. The Mediterranean phase has been studied using different combinations of GLOBO, BOLAM and MOLOCH models, so as to evaluate the best model chain to simulate this kind of phenomena. The BOLAM and MOLOCH models showed the best performance, by adjusting the path erroneously deviated in the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and ECMWF operational models. The analysis of the cyclone thermal phase shown the presence of a deep-warm core structure in many cases, thus confirming the tropical-like nature of the system. Furthermore, the results showed high sensitivity to initial conditions in the whole lifetime of the cyclone, while the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) modification leads only to small changes in the Adriatic phase. The Atlantic phase has been studied using GLOBO and BOLAM model and with the aid of the same methodology already developed. After tracing the precursor, in the form of a low-pressure system, from the American East Coast to Spain, the thermal phase analysis was conducted. The parameters obtained showed evidence of a deep-cold core asymmetric structure during the whole Atlantic phase, while the first contact with the Mediterranean Sea caused a sudden transition to a shallow-warm core structure. The examination of Potential Vorticity (PV) 3-dimensional structure revealed the presence of a PV streamer that individually formed over Greenland and eventually interacted with the low-pressure system over the Spanish coast, favouring the first phase of the cyclone baroclinic intensification. Finally, the development of an automated system that tracks and studies the thermal phase of Mediterranean cyclones has been encouraged. This could lead to the forecast of potential tropical transition, against with a minimum computational investment.

Atlantic hurricanes and associated insurance loss potentials in future climate scenarios: limitations of high-resolution AGCM simulations

Potential future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics are among the more serious regional threats of global climate change. Therefore, a better understanding of how anthropogenic climate change may affect TCs and how these changes translate in socio-economic impacts is required. Here, we apply a TC detection and tracking method that was developed for ERA-40 data to time-slice experiments of two atmospheric general circulation models, namely the fifth version of the European Centre model of Hamburg model (MPI, Hamburg, Germany, T213) and the Japan Meteorological Agency/ Meteorological research Institute model (MRI, Tsukuba city, Japan, TL959). For each model, two climate simulations are available: a control simulation for present-day conditions to evaluate the model against observations, and a scenario simulation to assess future changes. The evaluation of the control simulations shows that the number of intense storms is underestimated due to the model resolution. To overcome this deficiency, simulated cyclone intensities are scaled to the best track data leading to a better representation of the TC intensities. Both models project an increased number of major hurricanes and modified trajectories in their scenario simulations. These changes have an effect on the projected loss potentials. However, these state-of-the-art models still yield contradicting results, and therefore they are not yet suitable to provide robust estimates of losses due to uncertainties in simulated hurricane intensity, location and frequency.

PROBABILISTIC MODELING OF RAINFALL INDUCED LANDSLIDE HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN SAN JUAN LA LAGUNA, SOLOLÁ, GUATEMALA

The municipality of San Juan La Laguna, Guatemala is home to approximately 5,200 people and located on the western side of the Lake Atitlán caldera. Steep slopes surround all but the eastern side of San Juan. The Lake Atitlán watershed is susceptible to many natural hazards, but most predictable are the landslides that can occur annually with each rainy season, especially during high-intensity events. Hurricane Stan hit Guatemala in October 2005; the resulting flooding and landslides devastated the Atitlán region. Locations of landslide and non-landslide points were obtained from field observations and orthophotos taken following Hurricane Stan. This study used data from multiple attributes, at every landslide and non-landslide point, and applied different multivariate analyses to optimize a model for landslides prediction during high-intensity precipitation events like Hurricane Stan. The attributes considered in this study are: geology, geomorphology, distance to faults and streams, land use, slope, aspect, curvature, plan curvature, profile curvature and topographic wetness index. The attributes were pre-evaluated for their ability to predict landslides using four different attribute evaluators, all available in the open source data mining software Weka: filtered subset, information gain, gain ratio and chi-squared. Three multivariate algorithms (decision tree J48, logistic regression and BayesNet) were optimized for landslide prediction using different attributes. The following statistical parameters were used to evaluate model accuracy: precision, recall, F measure and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The algorithm BayesNet yielded the most accurate model and was used to build a probability map of landslide initiation points. The probability map developed in this study was also compared to the results of a bivariate landslide susceptibility analysis conducted for the watershed, encompassing Lake Atitlán and San Juan. Landslides from Tropical Storm Agatha 2010 were used to independently validate this study’s multivariate model and the bivariate model. The ultimate aim of this study is to share the methodology and results with municipal contacts from the author's time as a U.S. Peace Corps volunteer, to facilitate more effective future landslide hazard planning and mitigation.

Lower-tropospheric humidity: climatology, trends and the relation to the ITCZ

The tropical region is an area of maximum humidity and serves as the major humidity source of the globe. Among other phenomena, it is governed by the so-called Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) which is commonly defined by converging low-level winds or enhanced precipitation. Given its importance as a humidity source, we investigate the humidity fields in the tropics in different reanalysis data sets, deduce the climatology and variability and assess the relationship to the ITCZ. Therefore, a new analysis method of the specific humidity distribution is introduced which allows detecting the location of the humidity maximum, the strength and the meridional extent. The results show that the humidity maximum in boreal summer is strongly shifted northward over the warm pool/Asia Monsoon area and the Gulf of Mexico. These shifts go along with a peak in the strength in both areas; however, the extent shrinks over the warm pool/Asia Monsoon area, whereas it is wider over the Gulf of Mexico. In winter, such connections between location, strength and extent are not found. Still, a peak in strength is again identified over the Gulf of Mexico in boreal winter. The variability of the three characteristics is dominated by inter-annual signals in both seasons. The results using ERA-interim data suggest a positive trend in the Gulf of Mexico/Atlantic region from 1979 to 2010, showing an increased northward shift in the recent years. Although the trend is only weakly confirmed by the results using MERRA reanalysis data, it is in phase with a trend in hurricane activity�a possible hint of the importance of the new method on hurricanes. Furthermore, the position of the maximum humidity coincides with one of the ITCZ in most areas. One exception is the western and central Pacific, where the area is dominated by the double ITCZ in boreal winter. Nevertheless, the new method enables us to gain more insight into the humidity distribution, its variability and the relationship to ITCZ characteristics.

The Use of Ships' Protests for Reconstruction of Synoptic-Scale Weather and Tropical Storm Identification in the Late Eighteenth Century

Ships’ protests have been used for centuries as legal documents to record and detail damages and indemnify Captains from fault. We use them in this article, along with data extracted through forensic synoptic analysis (McNally, 1994, 2004) to identify a tropical or subtropical system in the North Atlantic Ocean in 1785. They are shown to be viable sources of meteorological information. By comparing a damaging storm in New England in 1996, which included an offshore tropical system, with one reconstructed in 1785, we demonstrate that the tropical system identified in a ship’s protest played a significant role in the 1785 storm. With both forensic reconstruction and anecdotal evidence, we are able to assess that these storms are remarkably identical. The recurrence rate calculated in previous studies of the 1996 storm is 400–500 years. We suggest that reconstruction of additional years in the 1700s would provide the basis for a reanalysis of recurrence rates, with implications for future insurance and reinsurance rates. The application of the methodology to this new data source can also be used for extension of the hurricane database in the North Atlantic basin, and elsewhere, much further back into history than is currently available.

Follow-up care after a health fair screening in three Houston neighborhoods in 2008

Background. Each year thousands of people participate in mass health screenings for diabetes and hypertension, but little is known about whether or not those who receive higher than normal screening results obtain the recommended follow-up medical care, or what barriers they perceive to doing so. ^ Methods. Study participants were recruited from attendees at three health fairs in low-income neighborhoods in Houston, Texas Potential participants had higher than normal blood pressure (> 90/140 mgHg) or blood glucose readings (100 mm/dL fasting or 140 mm/dL random). Study participants were called at one, two, and three months and asked if they had obtained follow-up medical care; those who had not yet obtained follow-up care were asked to identify barriers. Using a modified Aday-Andersen model of health service access, the independent variables were individual and community characteristics and self-perceived need. The dependent variable was obtaining follow-up care, with barriers to care a secondary outcome. ^ Results. Eighty-two study participants completed the initial questionnaire and 59 participants completed the study protocol. Forty-eight participants (59% under an intent to treat analysis, 81% of those completing the study protocol) obtained follow-up care. Those who completed the initial questionnaire and who reported a regular source of care were significantly more likely to obtain follow-up care. For those who completed the study protocol the relationship between having a regular source of care and obtaining follow-up care approached but did not reach significance. For those who completed the initial questionnaire, self-described health status, when examined as a binary variable (good, very good, excellent, or poor, fair, not sure) was associated with obtaining follow-up care for those who rated their health as poor, fair, or not sure. While the group who completed the study protocol did not reach statistical significance, the same relationship between self-described health status of poor, fair, or not sure and obtaining follow-up care was present. The participants who completed the study protocol and described their blood pressure as OK or a little high were statistically more likely to get follow-up care than those who described it as high or very high. All those on oral medications for hypertension (12/12) and diabetes (4/4) who were told to obtain follow-up care did so; however, the small sample size allows this correlation to be of statistical significance only for those treating hypertension. ^ The variables significantly associated with obtaining follow-up care were having a regular source of care, self-described health status of poor, fair, or not sure, self-described blood pressure of OK or a little high, and taking medication for blood pressure. ^ At the follow-up telephone calls, 34 participants identified barriers to care; cost was a significant barrier reported by 16 participants, and 10 reported that they didn’t have time because they were working long hours after Hurricane Ike. ^ The study included the offer of access assistance: information about nearby safety-net providers, a visit to or information from the Health Information Center at their Neighborhood Center location, or information from Project Safety Net (a searchable web site for safety net providers). Access assistance was offered at the health fairs and then again at follow-up telephone calls to those who had not yet obtained follow-up care. Of the 48 participants who reported obtaining follow-up care, 26 said they had made use of the access assistance to do so. The use of access assistance was associated with being Hispanic, not having health insurance or a regular source of care, and speaking Spanish. It was also associated with being worried about blood glucose. ^ Conclusion. Access assistance, as a community enabling characteristic, may be useful in aiding low-income people in obtaining medical care. ^

Syndromic surveillance at a long term shelter for persons displaced by hurricanes Katrina and Rita conducted by the San Antonio Metropolitan Health District

Background. Beginning September 2, 2005, San Antonio area shelters received approximately 12,700 evacuees from Hurricane Katrina. Two weeks later, another 12,000 evacuees from Hurricane Rita arrived. By mid-October, 2005, the in-shelter population was 1,000 people. There was concern regarding the potential for spread of infectious diseases in the shelter. San Antonio Metropolitan Health District (SAMHD) established a syndromic surveillance system with Comprehensive Health Services (CHS) who provided on-site health care. CHS was in daily contact with SAMHD to report symptoms of concern until the shelter closed December 23, 2005. ^ Study type. The objective of this study was to assess the methods used and describe the practical considerations involved in establishing and managing a syndromic surveillance system, as established by the SAMHD in the long-term shelter clinic maintained by CHS for the hurricane evacuees. ^ Methods. Information and descriptive data used in this study was collected from multiple sources, primarily from the San Antonio Metropolitan Health District’s 2006 Report on Syndromic Surveillance of a Long-Term Shelter by Hausler & Rohr-Allegrini. SAMHD and CHS staff ensured that each clinic visit was recorded by date, demographic information, chief complaint and medical disposition. Logs were obtained daily and subsequently entered into a Microsoft Access database and analyzed in Excel. ^ Results. During a nine week period, 4,913 clinic visits were recorded, reviewed and later analyzed. Repeat visits comprised 93.0% of encounters. Chronic illnesses contributed to 21.7% of the visits. Approximately 54.0% were acute care encounters. Of all encounters, 17.3% had infectious disease potential as primarily gastrointestinal and respiratory syndromes. Evacuees accounted for 86% and staff 14% of all visits to the shelter clinic. There were 782 unduplicated individuals who sought services at the clinic, comprised of 63% (496) evacuees and 36% (278) staff members. Staff were more likely to frequent the clinic but for fewer visits each. ^ Conclusion. The presence of health care services and syndromic surveillance provided the opportunity to recognize, document and intervene in any disease outbreak at this long-term shelter. Constant vigilance allowed SAMHD to inform and reassure concerned people living and working in the shelter and living outside the shelter.^