Observations and modeling of the Marginal Ice Zone

Global climate change in recent decades has strongly influenced the Arctic generating pronounced warming accompanied by significant reduction of sea ice in seasonally ice-covered seas and a dramatic increase of open water regions exposed to wind [Stephenson et al., 2011]. By strongly scattering the wave energy, thick multiyear ice prevents swell from penetrating deeply into the Arctic pack ice. However, with the recent changes affecting Arctic sea ice, waves gain more energy from the extended fetch and can therefore penetrate further into the pack ice. Arctic sea ice also appears weaker during melt season, extending the transition zone between thick multi-year ice and the open ocean. This region is called the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ). In the Arctic, the MIZ is mainly encountered in the marginal seas, such as the Nordic Seas, the Barents Sea, the Beaufort Sea and the Labrador Sea. Formed by numerous blocks of sea ice of various diameters (floes) the MIZ, under certain conditions, allows maritime transportation stimulating dreams of industrial and touristic exploitation of these regions and possibly allowing, in the next future, a maritime connection between the Atlantic and the Pacific. With the increasing human presence in the Arctic, waves pose security and safety issues. As marginal seas are targeted for oil and gas exploitation, understanding and predicting ocean waves and their effects on sea ice become crucial for structure design and for real time safety of operations. The juxtaposition of waves and sea ice represents a risk for personnel and equipment deployed on ice, and may complicate critical operations such as platform evacuations. The risk is difficult to evaluate because there are no long-term observations of waves in ice, swell events are difficult to predict from local conditions, ice breakup can occur on very short time-scales and wave-ice interactions are beyond the scope of current forecasting models [Liu and Mollo-Christensen, 1988,Marko, 2003]. In this thesis, a newly developed Waves in Ice Model (WIM) [Williams et al., 2013a,Williams et al., 2013b] and its related Ocean and Sea Ice model (OSIM) will be used to study the MIZ and the improvements of wave modeling in ice infested waters. The following work has been conducted in collaboration with the Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center and within the SWARP project which aims to extend operational services supporting human activity in the Arctic by including forecast of waves in ice-covered seas, forecast of sea-ice in the presence of waves and remote sensing of both waves and sea ice conditions. The WIM will be included in the downstream forecasting services provided by Copernicus marine environment monitoring service.

Natural variations at position 93 of the invariant Vα24-Jα18 α chain of human iNKT-cell TCRs strongly impact on CD1d binding

Human invariant natural killer T (NKT) cell TCRs bind to CD1d via an "invariant" Vα24-Jα18 chain (iNKTα) paired to semi-invariant Vβ11 chains (iNKTβ). Single-amino acid variations at position 93 (p93) of iNKTα, immediately upstream of the "invariant" CDR3α region, have been reported in a substantial proportion of human iNKT-cell clones (4-30%). Although p93, a serine in most human iNKT-cell TCRs, makes no contact with CD1d, it could affect CD1d binding by altering the conformation of the crucial CDR3α loop. By generating recombinant refolded iNKT-cell TCRs, we show that natural single-nucleotide variations in iNKTα, translating to serine, threonine, asparagine or isoleucine at p93, exert a powerful effect on CD1d binding, with up to 28-fold differences in affinity between these variants. This effect was observed with CD1d loaded with either the artificial α-galactosylceramide antigens KRN7000 or OCH, or the endogenous glycolipid β-galactosylceramide, and its importance for autoreactive recognition of endogenous lipids was demonstrated by the binding of variant iNKT-cell TCR tetramers to cell surface expressed CD1d. The serine-containing variant showed the strongest CD1d binding, offering an explanation for its predominance in vivo. Complementary molecular dynamics modeling studies were consistent with an impact of p93 on the conformation of the CDR3α loop.

Reverse-translational biomarker validation of Abnormal Repetitive Behaviors in mice: an illustration of the 4P's modeling approach

The NIMH's new strategic plan, with its emphasis on the "4P's" (Prediction, Pre-emption, Personalization, and Populations) and biomarker-based medicine requires a radical shift in animal modeling methodology. In particular 4P's models will be non-determinant (i.e. disease severity will depend on secondary environmental and genetic factors); and validated by reverse-translation of animal homologues to human biomarkers. A powerful consequence of the biomarker approach is that different closely related disorders have a unique fingerprint of biomarkers. Animals can be validated as a highly specific model of a single disorder by matching this 'fingerprint'; or as a model of a symptom seen in multiple disorders by matching common biomarkers. Here we illustrate this approach with two Abnormal Repetitive Behaviors (ARBs) in mice: stereotypies and barbering (hair pulling). We developed animal versions of the neuropsychological biomarkers that distinguish human ARBs, and tested the fingerprint of the different mouse ARBs. As predicted, the two mouse ARBs were associated with different biomarkers. Both barbering and stereotypy could be discounted as models of OCD (even though they are widely used as such), due to the absence of limbic biomarkers which are characteristic of OCD and hence are necessary for a valid model. Conversely barbering matched the fingerprint of trichotillomania (i.e. selective deficits in set-shifting), suggesting it may be a highly specific model of this disorder. In contrast stereotypies were correlated only with a biomarker (deficits in response shifting) correlated with stereotypies in multiple disorders, suggesting that animal stereotypies model stereotypies in multiple disorders.

Experimental Evaluation of the Influence of Human-Structure Interaction for Vibration Serviceability

The effects of human-structure interaction on the dynamic performance of occupied structures have long been observed. The inclusion of the effects of human-structure interaction is important to ensure that the dynamic response of a structure is not overestimated. Previous observations, both in service and in the laboratory, have yielded results indicating that the effects are dependent on the natural frequency of the structure, the posture of the occupants, and the mass ratio of the occupants to the structure. These results are noteworthy, but are limited in their application,because the data are sparse and are only pertinent to a specific set of characteristics identified in a given study. To examine these characteristics simultaneously and consistently, an experimental test structure was designed with variable properties to replicate a variety of configurations within a controlled setting focusing on the effects of passive occupants. Experimental modal analysis techniques were employed to both the empty and occupied conditions of the structure and the dynamic properties associated with each condition were compared. Results similar to previous investigations were observed, including both an increase and a decrease in natural frequency of the occupied structure with respect to the empty structure, as well as the identification of a second mode of vibration. The damping of the combined system was higher for all configurations. Overall, this study provides a broad data set representing a wide array of configurations. The experimental results of this study were used to assess current recommendations for the dynamic properties of a crowd to analytically predict the effects of human-structure interaction. The experimental results were used to select a set of properties for passive, standing occupants and develop a new model that can more accurately represent the behavior of the human-structure system as experimentally measured in this study.

RNA degradation differentially affects quantitative mRNA measurements of endogenous reference genes in human placenta

It has been highlighted that RNA quality and appropriate reference gene selection is crucial for the interpretation of RT-qPCR results in human placental samples. In this context we investigated the effect of RNA degradation on the mRNA abundance of seven frequently used reference genes in 119 human placental samples. Combining RNA integrity measurements, RT-qPCR analysis and mathematical modeling we found major differences regarding the effect of RNA degradation on the measured expression levels between the different reference genes. Furthermore, we demonstrated that a modified RNA extraction method significantly improved RNA quality and consequently increased transcript levels of all reference genes.

The discovery of new 11beta-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase type 1 inhibitors by common feature pharmacophore modeling and virtual screening

11beta-Hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase (11beta-HSD) enzymes catalyze the conversion of biologically inactive 11-ketosteroids into their active 11beta-hydroxy derivatives and vice versa. Inhibition of 11beta-HSD1 has considerable therapeutic potential for glucocorticoid-associated diseases including obesity, diabetes, wound healing, and muscle atrophy. Because inhibition of related enzymes such as 11beta-HSD2 and 17beta-HSDs causes sodium retention and hypertension or interferes with sex steroid hormone metabolism, respectively, highly selective 11beta-HSD1 inhibitors are required for successful therapy. Here, we employed the software package Catalyst to develop ligand-based multifeature pharmacophore models for 11beta-HSD1 inhibitors. Virtual screening experiments and subsequent in vitro evaluation of promising hits revealed several selective inhibitors. Efficient inhibition of recombinant human 11beta-HSD1 in intact transfected cells as well as endogenous enzyme in mouse 3T3-L1 adipocytes and C2C12 myotubes was demonstrated for compound 27, which was able to block subsequent cortisol-dependent activation of glucocorticoid receptors with only minor direct effects on the receptor itself. Our results suggest that inhibitor-based pharmacophore models for 11beta-HSD1 in combination with suitable cell-based activity assays, including such for related enzymes, can be used for the identification of selective and potent inhibitors.

Labeling the human skeleton with 41Ca to assess changes in bone calcium metabolism

Bone research is limited by the methods available for detecting changes in bone metabolism. While dual X-ray absorptiometry is rather insensitive, biochemical markers are subject to significant intra-individual variation. In the study presented here, we evaluated the isotopic labeling of bone using 41Ca, a long-lived radiotracer, as an alternative approach. After successful labeling of the skeleton, changes in the systematics of urinary 41Ca excretion are expected to directly reflect changes in bone Ca metabolism. A minute amount of 41Ca (100 nCi) was administered orally to 22 postmenopausal women. Kinetics of tracer excretion were assessed by monitoring changes in urinary 41Ca/40Ca isotope ratios up to 700 days post-dosing using accelerator mass spectrometry and resonance ionization mass spectrometry. Isotopic labeling of the skeleton was evaluated by two different approaches: (i) urinary 41Ca data were fitted to an established function consisting of an exponential term and a power law term for each individual; (ii) 41Ca data were analyzed by population pharmacokinetic (NONMEM) analysis to identify a compartmental model that describes urinary 41Ca tracer kinetics. A linear three-compartment model with a central compartment and two sequential peripheral compartments was found to best fit the 41Ca data. Fits based on the use of the combined exponential/power law function describing urinary tracer excretion showed substantially higher deviations between predicted and measured values than fits based on the compartmental modeling approach. By establishing the urinary 41Ca excretion pattern using data points up to day 500 and extrapolating these curves up to day 700, it was found that the calculated 41Ca/40Ca isotope ratios in urine were significantly lower than the observed 41Ca/40Ca isotope ratios for both techniques. Compartmental analysis can overcome this limitation. By identifying relative changes in transfer rates between compartments in response to an intervention, inaccuracies in the underlying model cancel out. Changes in tracer distribution between compartments were modeled based on identified kinetic parameters. While changes in bone formation and resorption can, in principle, be assessed by monitoring urinary 41Ca excretion over the first few weeks post-dosing, assessment of an intervention effect is more reliable approximately 150 days post-dosing when excreted tracer originates mainly from bone.

A BAYESIAN HIERARCHICAL FRAMEWORK FOR SPATIAL MODELING OF fMRI DATA

Functional neuroimaging techniques enable investigations into the neural basis of human cognition, emotions, and behaviors. In practice, applications of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) have provided novel insights into the neuropathophysiology of major psychiatric,neurological, and substance abuse disorders, as well as into the neural responses to their treatments. Modern activation studies often compare localized task-induced changes in brain activity between experimental groups. One may also extend voxel-level analyses by simultaneously considering the ensemble of voxels constituting an anatomically defined region of interest (ROI) or by considering means or quantiles of the ROI. In this work we present a Bayesian extension of voxel-level analyses that offers several notable benefits. First, it combines whole-brain voxel-by-voxel modeling and ROI analyses within a unified framework. Secondly, an unstructured variance/covariance for regional mean parameters allows for the study of inter-regional functional connectivity, provided enough subjects are available to allow for accurate estimation. Finally, an exchangeable correlation structure within regions allows for the consideration of intra-regional functional connectivity. We perform estimation for our model using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques implemented via Gibbs sampling which, despite the high throughput nature of the data, can be executed quickly (less than 30 minutes). We apply our Bayesian hierarchical model to two novel fMRI data sets: one considering inhibitory control in cocaine-dependent men and the second considering verbal memory in subjects at high risk for Alzheimer’s disease. The unifying hierarchical model presented in this manuscript is shown to enhance the interpretation content of these data sets.

Modulation of human CYP19A1 activity by mutant NADPH P450 oxidoreductase

Mutations in NADPH P450 oxidoreductase (POR) cause a broad spectrum of human disease with abnormalities in steroidogenesis. We have studied the impact of P450 reductase mutations on the activity of CYP19A1. POR supported CYP19A1 activity with a calculated Km of 126 nm for androstenedione and a Vmax of 1.7 pmol/min. Mutations R457H and V492E located in the FAD domain of POR that disrupt electron transfer caused a complete loss of CYP19A1 activity. The A287P mutation of POR decreased the activities of CYP17A1 by 60-80% but had normal CYP19A1 activity. Molecular modeling and protein docking studies suggested that A287P is involved in the interaction of POR:CYP17A1 but not in the POR:CYP19A1 interaction. Mutations C569Y and V608F in the NADPH binding domain of POR had 49 and 28% of activity of CYP19A1 compared with normal reductase and were more sensitive to the amount of NADPH available for supporting CYP19A1 activity. Substitution of NADH for NADPH had a higher impact on C569Y and V608F mutants of POR. Similar effects were obtained at low/high (5.5/8.5) pH, but using octanol to limit the flux of electrons from POR to CYP19A1 inhibited activity supported by all variants. High molar ratios of KCl also reduced the CYP19A1 supporting activities of C569Y and V608F mutants of POR to a greater extent compared to normal POR and A287P mutant. Because POR supports many P450s involved in steroidogenesis, bone formation, and drug metabolism, variations in the effects of POR mutations on specific enzyme activities may explain the broad clinical spectrum of POR deficiency.

Modeling the influence of APOC3, APOE, and TNF polymorphisms on the risk of antiretroviral therapy-associated lipid disorders

BACKGROUND: Single-nucleotide polymorphisms in genes involved in lipoprotein and adipocyte metabolism may explain why dyslipidemia and lipoatrophy occur in some but not all antiretroviral therapy (ART)-treated individuals. METHODS: We evaluated the contribution of APOC3 -482C-->T, -455T-->C, and 3238C-->G; epsilon 2 and epsilon 4 alleles of APOE; and TNF -238G-->A to dyslipidemia and lipoatrophy by longitudinally modeling >2600 lipid determinations and 2328 lipoatrophy assessments in 329 ART-treated patients during a median follow-up period of 3.4 years. RESULTS: In human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals, the effects of variant alleles of APOE on plasma cholesterol and triglyceride levels and of APOC3 on plasma triglyceride levels were comparable to those reported in the general population. However, when treated with ritonavir, individuals with unfavorable genotypes of APOC3 and [corrected] APOE were at risk of extreme hypertriglyceridemia. They had median plasma triglyceride levels of 7.33 mmol/L, compared with 3.08 mmol/L in the absence of ART. The net effect of the APOE*APOC3*ritonavir interaction was an increase in plasma triglyceride levels of 2.23 mmol/L. No association between TNF -238G-->A and lipoatrophy was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Variant alleles of APOE and APOC3 contribute to an unfavorable lipid profile in patients with HIV. Interactions between genotypes and ART can lead to severe hyperlipidemia. Genetic analysis may identify patients at high risk for severe ritonavir-associated hypertriglyceridemia.

Modeling of C/EBPalpha mutant acute myeloid leukemia reveals a common expression signature of committed myeloid leukemia-initiating cells

Mutations in the CEBPA gene are present in 7%-10% of human patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML). However, no genetic models exist that demonstrate their etiological relevance. To mimic the most common mutations affecting CEBPA-that is, those leading to loss of the 42 kDa C/EBPalpha isoform (p42) while retaining the 30kDa isoform (p30)-we modified the mouse Cebpa locus to express only p30. p30 supported the formation of granulocyte-macrophage progenitors. However, p42 was required for control of myeloid progenitor proliferation, and p42-deficient mice developed AML with complete penetrance. p42-deficient leukemia could be transferred by a Mac1+c-Kit+ population that gave rise only to myeloid cells in recipient mice. Expression profiling of this population against normal Mac1+c-Kit+ progenitors revealed a signature shared with MLL-AF9-transformed AML.

Modeling of diesel particulate filter filtration and regeneration for transient driving schedules

Due to their high thermal efficiency, diesel engines have excellent fuel economy and have been widely used as a power source for many vehicles. Diesel engines emit less greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide) compared with gasoline engines. However, diesel engines emit large amounts of particulate matter (PM) which can imperil human health. The best way to reduce the particulate matter is by using the Diesel Particulate Filter (DPF) system which consists of a wall-flow monolith which can trap particulates, and the DPF can be periodically regenerated to remove the collected particulates. The estimation of the PM mass accumulated in the DPF and total pressure drop across the filter are very important in order to determine when to carry out the active regeneration for the DPF. In this project, by developing a filtration model and a pressure drop model, we can estimate the PM mass and the total pressure drop, then, these two models can be linked with a regeneration model which has been developed previously to predict when to regenerate the filter. There results of this project were: 1 Reproduce a filtration model and simulate the processes of filtration. By studying the deep bed filtration and cake filtration, stages and quantity of mass accumulated in the DPF can be estimated. It was found that the filtration efficiency increases faster during the deep-bed filtration than that during the cake filtration. A “unit collector” theory was used in our filtration model which can explain the mechanism of the filtration very well. 2 Perform a parametric study on the pressure drop model for changes in engine exhaust flow rate, deposit layer thickness, and inlet temperature. It was found that there are five primary variables impacting the pressure drop in the DPF which are temperature gradient along the channel, deposit layer thickness, deposit layer permeability, wall thickness, and wall permeability. 3 Link the filtration model and the pressure drop model with the regeneration model to determine the time to carry out the regeneration of the DPF. It was found that the regeneration should be initiated when the cake layer is at a certain thickness, since a cake layer with either too big or too small an amount of particulates will need more thermal energy to reach a higher regeneration efficiency. 4 Formulate diesel particulate trap regeneration strategies for real world driving conditions to find out the best desirable conditions for DPF regeneration. It was found that the regeneration should be initiated when the vehicle’s speed is high and during which there should not be any stops from the vehicle. Moreover, the regeneration duration is about 120 seconds and the inlet temperature for the regeneration is 710K.

Modeling spontaneous three-dimensional polymerization

For human beings, the origin of life has always been an interesting and mysterious matter, particularly how life arose from inorganic matter through natural processes. Polymerization is always involved in such processes. In this paper we built what we refer to as ideal and physical models to simulate spontaneous polymerization based on certain physical principles. As the modeling confirms, without taking external energy, small and simple inorganic molecules formed bigger and more complicated molecules, which are necessary ingredients of all living organisms. In our simulations, we utilized actual ranges of parameters according to their experimentally observed values. The results from the simulations led to a good agreement with the nature of polymerization. After sorting out through all the models that were built, we arrived at a final model that, it is hoped, can be used to simply and efficiently describe spontaneous polymerization using only three parameters: the dipole moment, the distance between molecules, and the temperature.

Molecular Surface Features in Modeling the HIV-1 RT Inhibitory Activity of 2-(2,6-Disubstituted phenyl)-3-(substituted pyrimidin-2-yl)-thiazolidin-4-ones

The human immunodeficiency virus-1 reverse transcriptase inhibitory activity of 2-(2,6-disubstituted phenyl)-3-(substituted pyrimidin-2-yl)-thiazolidin-4-ones have been analyzed using combinatorial protocol in multiple linear regression (CP-MLR) with several electronic and molecular surface area features of the compounds obtained from Molecular Operating Environment (MOE) software. The study has indicated the role of different charged molecular surface areas in modeling the inhibitory activity of the compounds. The derived models collectively suggested that the compounds should be compact without bulky substitutions on its peripheries for better HIV-1 RT inhibitory activity. It also emphasized the necessity of hydrophobicity and compact structural features for their activity. The scope of the descriptors identified for these analogues have been verified by extending the dataset with different 2-(disubstituted phenyl)-3-(substituted pyridin-2-yl)-thiazolidin-4-ones. The joint analysis of extended dataset highlighted the information content of identified descriptors in modeling the HIV-1 RT inhibitory activity of the compounds.

Impacts of changing climate and land use on vegetation dynamics in a Mediterranean ecosystem: insights from paleoecology and dynamic modeling

Forests near the Mediterranean coast have been shaped by millennia of human disturbance. Consequently, ecological studies relying on modern observations or historical records may have difficulty assessing natural vegetation dynamics under current and future climate. We combined a sedimentary pollen record from Lago di Massacciucoli, Tuscany, Italy with simulations from the LandClim dynamic vegetation model to determine what vegetation preceded intense human disturbance, how past changes in vegetation relate to fire and browsing, and the potential of an extinct vegetation type under present climate. We simulated vegetation dynamics near Lago di Massaciucoli for the last 7,000 years using a local chironomid-inferred temperature reconstruction with combinations of three fire regimes (small infrequent, large infrequent, small frequent) and three browsing intensities (no browsing, light browsing, and moderate browsing), and compared model output to pollen data. Simulations with low disturbance support pollen-inferred evidence for a mixed forest dominated by Quercus ilex (a Mediterranean species) and Abies alba (a montane species). Whereas pollen data record the collapse of A. alba after 6000 cal yr bp, simulated populations expanded with declining summer temperatures during the late Holocene. Simulations with increased fire and browsing are consistent with evidence for expansion by deciduous species after A. alba collapsed. According to our combined paleo-environmental and modeling evidence, mixed Q. ilex and A. alba forests remain possible with current climate and limited disturbance, and provide a viable management objective for ecosystems near the Mediterranean coast and in regions that are expected to experience a mediterranean-type climate in the future.