Development of a 3-Dimensional Mathematical Collision Risk Model Based on Recorded Aircraft Trajectories to Estimate the Safety Level in High Density En-Route Airspaces

Como en todos los medios de transporte, la seguridad en los viajes en avión es de primordial importancia. Con los aumentos de tráfico aéreo previstos en Europa para la próxima década, es evidente que el riesgo de accidentes necesita ser evaluado y monitorizado cuidadosamente de forma continúa. La Tesis presente tiene como objetivo el desarrollo de un modelo de riesgo de colisión exhaustivo como método para evaluar el nivel de seguridad en ruta del espacio aéreo europeo, considerando todos los factores de influencia. La mayor limitación en el desarrollo de metodologías y herramientas de monitorización adecuadas para evaluar el nivel de seguridad en espacios de ruta europeos, donde los controladores aéreos monitorizan el tráfico aéreo mediante la vigilancia radar y proporcionan instrucciones tácticas a las aeronaves, reside en la estimación del riesgo operacional. Hoy en día, la estimación del riesgo operacional está basada normalmente en reportes de incidentes proporcionados por el proveedor de servicios de navegación aérea (ANSP). Esta Tesis propone un nuevo e innovador enfoque para evaluar el nivel de seguridad basado exclusivamente en el procesamiento y análisis trazas radar. La metodología propuesta ha sido diseñada para complementar la información recogida en las bases de datos de accidentes e incidentes, mediante la provisión de información robusta de los factores de tráfico aéreo y métricas de seguridad inferidas del análisis automático en profundidad de todos los eventos de proximidad. La metodología 3-D CRM se ha implementado en un prototipo desarrollado en MATLAB © para analizar automáticamente las trazas radar y planes de vuelo registrados por los Sistemas de Procesamiento de Datos Radar (RDP) e identificar y analizar todos los eventos de proximidad (conflictos, conflictos potenciales y colisiones potenciales) en un periodo de tiempo y volumen del espacio aéreo. Actualmente, el prototipo 3-D CRM está siendo adaptado e integrado en la herramienta de monitorización de prestaciones de Aena (PERSEO) para complementar las bases de accidentes e incidentes ATM y mejorar la monitorización y proporcionar evidencias de los niveles de seguridad. ABSTRACT As with all forms of transport, the safety of air travel is of paramount importance. With the projected increases in European air traffic in the next decade and beyond, it is clear that the risk of accidents needs to be assessed and carefully monitored on a continuing basis. The present thesis is aimed at the development of a comprehensive collision risk model as a method of assessing the European en-route risk, due to all causes and across all dimensions within the airspace. The major constraint in developing appropriate monitoring methodologies and tools to assess the level of safety in en-route airspaces where controllers monitor air traffic by means of radar surveillance and provide aircraft with tactical instructions lies in the estimation of the operational risk. The operational risk estimate normally relies on incident reports provided by the air navigation service providers (ANSPs). This thesis proposes a new and innovative approach to assessing aircraft safety level based exclusively upon the process and analysis of radar tracks. The proposed methodology has been designed to complement the information collected in the accident and incident databases, thereby providing robust information on air traffic factors and safety metrics inferred from the in depth assessment of proximate events. The 3-D CRM methodology is implemented in a prototype tool in MATLAB © in order to automatically analyze recorded aircraft tracks and flight plan data from the Radar Data Processing systems (RDP) and identify and analyze all proximate events (conflicts, potential conflicts and potential collisions) within a time span and a given volume of airspace. Currently, the 3D-CRM prototype is been adapted and integrated in AENA’S Performance Monitoring Tool (PERSEO) to complement the information provided by the ATM accident and incident databases and to enhance monitoring and providing evidence of levels of safety.

Histone H1 overexpressed to high level in tobacco affects certain developmental programs but has limited effect on basal cellular functions.

Histone H1, a major structural component of chromatin fiber, is believed to act as a general repressor of transcription. To investigate in vivo the role of this protein in transcription regulation during development of a multicellular organism, we made transgenic tobacco plants that overexpress the gene for Arabidopsis histone H1. In all plants that overexpressed H1 the total H1-to-DNA ratio in chromatin increased 2.3-2.8 times compared with the physiological level. This was accompanied by 50-100% decrease of native tobacco H1. The phenotypic changes in H1-overexpressing plants ranged from mild to severe perturbations in morphological appearance and flowering. No correlation was observed between the extent of phenotypic change and the variation in the amount of overexpressed H1 or the presence or absence of the native tobacco H1. However, the severe phenotypic changes were correlated with early occurrence during plant growth of cells with abnormally heterochromatinized nuclei. Such cells occurred considerably later in plants with milder changes. Surprisingly, the ability of cells with highly heterochromatinized nuclei to fulfill basic physiological functions, including differentiation, was not markedly hampered. The results support the suggestion that chromatin structural changes dependent on H1 stoichiometry and on the profile of major H1 variants have limited regulatory effect on the activity of genes that control basal cellular functions. However, the H1-mediated chromatin changes can be of much greater importance for the regulation of genes involved in control of specific developmental programs.

How optimization of potential functions affects protein folding.

The relationship between the optimization of the potential function and the foldability of theoretical protein models is studied based on investigations of a 27-mer cubic-lattice protein model and a more realistic lattice model for the protein crambin. In both the simple and the more complicated systems, optimization of the energy parameters achieves significant improvements in the statistical-mechanical characteristics of the systems and leads to foldable protein models in simulation experiments. The foldability of the protein models is characterized by their statistical-mechanical properties--e.g., by the density of states and by Monte Carlo folding simulations of the models. With optimized energy parameters, a high level of consistency exists among different interactions in the native structures of the protein models, as revealed by a correlation function between the optimized energy parameters and the native structure of the model proteins. The results of this work are relevant to the design of a general potential function for folding proteins by theoretical simulations.

Design of irredundant multiple-level MOS networks for multiple-output and incompletely specified functions /

Thesis (M. S.)--University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.

Gray's model of personality and aggregate level factor analysis

Previous research shows that correlations tend to increase in magnitude when individuals are aggregated across groups. This suggests that uncorrelated constellations of personality variables (such as the primary scales of Extraversion and Neuroticism) may display much higher correlations in aggregate factor analysis. We hypothesize and report that individual level factor analysis can be explained in terms of Giant Three (or Big Five) descriptions of personality, whereas aggregate level factor analysis can be explained in terms of Gray's physiological based model. Although alternative interpretations exist, aggregate level factor analysis may correctly identify the basis of an individual's personality as a result of better reliability of measures due to aggregation. We discuss the implications of this form of analysis in terms of construct validity, personality theory, and its applicability in general. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Locally recurrent functions, density topologies and algebraic genericity

We study the algebraic and topological genericity of certain subsets of locally recurrent functions, obtaining (among other results) algebrability and spaceability within these classes.

Locally recurrent functions, density topologies and algebraic genericity

We study the algebraic and topological genericity of certain subsets of locally recurrent functions, obtaining (among other results) algebrability and spaceability within these classes.

MAGIC observations of the February 2014 flare of 1ES 1011+496 and ensuing constraint of the EBL density

Context. In February-March 2014, the MAGIC telescopes observed the high-frequency peaked BL Lac 1ES 1011+496 (z=0.212) in flaring state at very-high energy (VHE, E>100GeV). The flux reached a level more than 10 times higher than any previously recorded flaring state of the source. Aims. Description of the characteristics of the flare presenting the light curve and the spectral parameters of the night-wise spectra and the average spectrum of the whole period. From these data we aim at detecting the imprint of the Extragalactic Background Light (EBL) in the VHE spectrum of the source, in order to constrain its intensity in the optical band. Methods. We analyzed the gamma-ray data from the MAGIC telescopes using the standard MAGIC software for the production of the light curve and the spectra. For the constraining of the EBL we implement the method developed by the H.E.S.S. collaboration in which the intrinsic energy spectrum of the source is modeled with a simple function (< 4 parameters), and the EBL-induced optical depth is calculated using a template EBL model. The likelihood of the observed spectrum is then maximized, including a normalization factor for the EBL opacity among the free parameters. Results. The collected data allowed us to describe the flux changes night by night and also to produce di_erential energy spectra for all nights of the observed period. The estimated intrinsic spectra of all the nights could be fitted by power-law functions. Evaluating the changes in the fit parameters we conclude that the spectral shape for most of the nights were compatible, regardless of the flux level, which enabled us to produce an average spectrum from which the EBL imprint could be constrained. The likelihood ratio test shows that the model with an EBL density 1:07 (-0.20,+0.24)stat+sys, relative to the one in the tested EBL template (Domínguez et al. 2011), is preferred at the 4:6 σ level to the no-EBL hypothesis, with the assumption that the intrinsic source spectrum can be modeled as a log-parabola. This would translate into a constraint of the EBL density in the wavelength range [0.24 μm,4.25 μm], with a peak value at 1.4 μm of λF_ = 12:27^(+2:75)_ (-2:29) nW m^(-2) sr^(-1), including systematics.

Assessing landscape functional connectivity in a forest carnivore using path selection functions

Context Understanding connectivity patterns in relation to habitat fragmentation is essential to landscape management. However, connectivity is often judged from expert opinion or species occurrence patterns, with very few studies considering the actual movements of individuals. Path selection functions provide a promising tool to infer functional connectivity from animal movement data, but its practical application remains scanty. Objectives We aimed to describe functional connectivity patterns in a forest carnivore using path-level analysis, and to explore how connectivity is affected by land cover patterns and road networks. Methods We radiotracked 22 common genets in a mixed forest-agricultural landscape of southern Portugal. We developed path selection functions discriminating between observed and random paths in relation to landscape variables. These functions were used together with land cover information to map conductance surfaces. Results Genets moved preferentially within forest patches and close to riparian habitats. Functional connectivity declined with increasing road density, but increased with the proximity of culverts, viaducts and bridges. Functional connectivity was favoured by large forest patches, and by the presence of riparian areas providing corridors within open agricultural land. Roads reduced connectivity by dissecting forest patches, but had less effect on riparian corridors due to the presence of crossing structures. Conclusions Genet movements were jointly affected by the spatial distribution of suitable habitats, and the presence of a road network dissecting such habitats and creating obstacles in areas otherwise permeable to animal movement. Overall, the study showed the value of path-level analysis to assess functional connectivity patterns in human-modified landscapes.

Task analysis for HMI design. Level of automation study of aircraft navigation functions

Advancements in technology have enabled increasingly sophisticated automation to be introduced into the flight decks of modern aircraft. Generally, this automation was added to accomplish worthy objectives such as reducing flight crew workload, adding additional capability, or increasing fuel economy. Automation is necessary due to the fact that not all of the functions required for mission accomplishment in today’s complex aircraft are within the capabilities of the unaided human operator, who lacks the sensory capacity to detect much of the information required for flight. To a large extent, these objectives have been achieved. Nevertheless, despite all the benefits from the increasing amounts of highly reliable automation, vulnerabilities do exist in flight crew management of automation and Situation Awareness (SA). Issues associated with flight crew management of automation include: • Pilot understanding of automation’s capabilities, limitations, modes, and operating principles and techniques. • Differing pilot decisions about the appropriate automation level to use or whether to turn automation on or off when they get into unusual or emergency situations. • Human-Machine Interfaces (HMIs) are not always easy to use, and this aspect could be problematic when pilots experience high workload situations. • Complex automation interfaces, large differences in automation philosophy and implementation among different aircraft types, and inadequate training also contribute to deficiencies in flight crew understanding of automation.

Analyzing the n→π* Electronic Transition of Formaldehyde in Water. A Sequential Monte Carlo/Time-Dependent Density Functional Theory

The n→π* absorption transition of formaldehyde in water is analyzed using combined and sequential classical Monte Carlo (MC) simulations and quantum mechanics (QM) calculations. MC simulations generate the liquid solute-solvent structures for subsequent QM calculations. Using time-dependent density functional theory in a localized set of gaussian basis functions (TD-DFT/6-311++G(d,p)) calculations are made on statistically relevant configurations to obtain the average solvatochromic shift. All results presented here use the electrostatic embedding of the solvent. The statistically converged average result obtained of 2300 cm-1 is compared to previous theoretical results available. Analysis is made of the effective dipole moment of the hydrogen-bonded shell and how it could be held responsible for the polarization of the solvent molecules in the outer solvation shells.

WOOD DENSITY VARIATION AND TREE RING DEMARCATION IN Gmelina arborea TREES USING X-RAY DENSITOMETRY

Due to its relationship with other properties, wood density is the main wood quality parameter. Modern, accurate methods - such as X-ray densitometry - are applied to determine the spatial distribution of density in wood sections and to evaluate wood quality. The objectives of this study were to determinate the influence of growing conditions on wood density variation and tree ring demarcation of gmelina trees from fast growing plantations in Costa Rica. The wood density was determined by X-ray densitometry method. Wood samples were cut from gmelina trees and were exposed to low X-rays. The radiographic films were developed and scanned using a 256 gray scale with 1000 dpi resolution and the wood density was determined by CRAD and CERD software. The results showed tree-ring boundaries were distinctly delimited in trees growing in site with rainfall lower than 25 10 mm/year. It was demonstrated that tree age, climatic conditions and management of plantation affects wood density and its variability. The specific effect of variables on wood density was quantified by for multiple regression method. It was determined that tree year explained 25.8% of the total variation of density and 19.9% were caused by climatic condition where the tree growing. Wood density was less affected by the intensity of forest management with 5.9% of total variation.

Effects of Low-Level Laser Therapy on Pain and Scar Formation After Inguinal Herniation Surgery: A Randomized Controlled Single-Blind Study

Objective: The aim of this study was to investigate the efficacy of an infrared GaAlAs laser operating with a wavelength of 830 nm in the postsurgical scarring process after inguinal-hernia surgery. Background: Low-level laser therapy (LLLT) has been shown to be beneficial in the tissue-repair process, as previously demonstrated in tissue culture and animal experiments. However, there is lack of studies on the effects of LLLT on postsurgical scarring of incisions in humans using an infrared 830-nm GaAlAs laser. Method: Twenty-eight patients who underwent surgery for inguinal hernias were randomly divided into an experimental group (G1) and a control group (G2). G1 received LLLT, with the first application performed 24 h after surgery and then on days 3, 5, and 7. The incisions were irradiated with an 830-nm diode laser operating with a continuous power output of 40 mW, a spot-size aperture of 0.08 cm(2) for 26 s, energy per point of 1.04 J, and an energy density of 13 J/cm(2). Ten points per scar were irradiated. Six months after surgery, both groups were reevaluated using the Vancouver Scar Scale (VSS), the Visual Analog Scale, and measurement of the scar thickness. Results: G1 showed significantly better results in the VSS totals (2.14 +/- 1.51) compared with G2 (4.85 +/- 1.87); in the thickness measurements (0.11 cm) compared with G2 (0.19 cm); and in the malleability (0.14) compared with G2 (1.07). The pain score was also around 50% higher in G2. Conclusion: Infra-red LLLT (830 nm) applied after inguinal-hernia surgery was effective in preventing the formation of keloids. In addition, LLLT resulted in better scar appearance and quality 6 mo postsurgery.