Endogenous Credit Cycles and Financial Dampening in an Adverse Selection Economy

We propose an adverse selection framework in which the financial sector has a dual role. It amplifies or dampens exogenous shocks and also generates endogenous fluctuations. We fully characterize constrained optimal contracts in a setting in which entrepreneurs need to borrow and are privately informed about the quality of their projects. Our characterization is novel in analyzing pooling and separating allocations in a context of multi-dimensional screening: specifically, the amounts of investment undertaken and of entrepreneurial net worth are used to screen projects. We then embed these results in a dynamic competitive economy. First, we show how endogenous regime switches in financial contracts may generate fluctuations in an economy that exhibits no dynamics under full information. Unlike previous models of endogenous cycles, our result does not rely on entrepreneurial net worth being counter-cyclical or inconsequential for determining investment. Secondly, the model shows the different implications of adverse selection as opposed to pure moral hazard. In particular, and contrary to standard results in the macroeconomic literature, the financial system may dampen exogenous shocks in the presence of adverse selection.

A Review of the Revitalize Iowa's Sound Economy Program, Administered by the Department of Transportation, July 1, 1986 through June 30, 2004

Other Audit Reports - Review

Structural changes in the US economy: Bad Luck or Bad Policy?

This paper investigates the relationship between time variations in output and inflation dynamics and monetary policy in the US. There are changes in the structural coefficients and in the variance of the structural shocks. The policy rules in the 1970s and 1990s are similar as is the transmission of policy disturbances. Inflation persistence is only partly a monetary phenomena. Variations in the systematic component of policy have limited effects on the dynamics of output and inflation. Results are robust to alterations in the auxiliary assumptions.

The "New Political Economy": Two Recent Books

This paper reviews two recent books on Political Economy by Allan Drazen and Torsten Persson and Guido Tabellini. It discusses some problems of the recent Political Economy literature.

Policy and the Evolution of the US Economy: 1948-2002

This paper investigates the relationship between monetary policy and the changes experienced by the US economy using a small scale New-Keynesian model. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques and the stability of policy parameter estimates and of the transmission of policy shocks examined. The model fits well the data and produces forecasts comparable or superior to those of alternative specifications. The parameters of the policy rule, the variance and the transmission of policy shocks have been remarkably stable. The parameters of the Phillips curve and of the Euler equations are varying.

Railroads are on Track to keep Iowa's Economy Healthy and Growing, 2005

Just as the railroad tracks guide trains toward their destination, Iowa’s railroads play a vital role in keeping our state’s economic health and growth “on track” for the future.

The street and children’s informal economy in Cape Verde

Since the 1990s Cape Verde has undergone dramatic economic and political transformations that have brought about growing social class distinction. The two main towns (Praia and Mindelo) have grown rapidly in the last decades and their urban structure today reflects the increasing polarisation of the population. Middle and upper class families occupy the older parts of town and the recently built planned areas, while spontaneous neighbourhoods spread without planning on the less valuable land. It is in these latter areas that most social issues associated with childhood and youth have become highly visible in the last decade. In this article I will focus on children’s reasons for going to live on the streets of Mindelo, arguing that it is in terms of autonomous mobility within a non-heterogeneous and profoundly divided urban and social space that we can better understand what is commonly defined as the phenomenon of street children.

Unwanted sexual experiences among adolescents: shedding light on the gray zone between consensual and non-consensual sex.

This study aimed at exploring adolescents' perceptions of unwanted sexual experiences (USE) in order to set up definitions, categories, and boundaries on the continuum between consensual and non-consensual sex. METHODS: We conducted a qualitative thematic analysis of four focus group discussions gathering a total of 29 male and female adolescents aged 16-20 years. RESULTS: Analysis of participants' discourse revealed three main characteristics that define USE, namely, regret, as most situations discussed were said to be acceptable or not in terms of whether there were regrets after the fact; misperception of sexual intent; and lack of communication between partners. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings revealed that health professionals should be aware of the subtle aspects identifying USE when screening for situations that can have adverse psychological consequences. Where prevention is concerned, it appears important to address these aspects of USE in sex education classes.

Toward a Statistically Robust Assessment of Social and Solidarity Economy Actors. Conceptual Development and Empirical Validation

Many definitions and debates exist about the core characteristics of social and solidarity economy (SSE) and its actors. Among others, legal forms, profit, geographical scope, and size as criteria for identifying SSE actors often reveal dissents among SSE scholars. Instead of using a dichotomous, either-in-or-out definition of SSE actors, this paper presents an assessment tool that takes into account multiple dimensions to offer a more comprehensive and nuanced view of the field. We first define the core dimensions of the assessment tool by synthesizing the multiple indicators found in the literature. We then empirically test these dimensions and their interrelatedness and seek to identify potential clusters of actors. Finally we discuss the practical implications of our model.

Research joint ventures in an international economy

D'Aspremont and Jacquemin's (1988) model is extended to studyalternative configurations of research agreements in a two--country integratedworld economy. Under unambiguous conditions on spillovers we show that:1) Allowing national firms to cooperate in R\&D confers them an advantageover foreign rivals, an effect similar to R\&D subsidies. 2) In a policygame, each government would allow national cooperative agreements. 3) Contraryto other trade policies which lead to a ``prisoners' dilemma'' result,welfare in both countries increases when they both allow R\&D cooperation.4) Welfare is even higher if a generalized (international) coalition isformed.

Structural changes in the US economy: is there a role for monetary policy?

This paper investigates the contribution of monetary policy to the changes in outputgrowth and inflation dynamics in the US. We identify a policy shock and a policy rule ina time-varying coefficients VAR using robust sign restrictions. The transmission of policyshocks has been relatively stable. The variance of the policy shock has decreased over time,but policy shocks account for a small fraction of the level and of the variations in inflationand output growth volatility and persistence. We find little evidence of a significant increasein the long run response of the interest rate to inflation. A more aggressive inflation policyin the 1970s would have produced large output growth costs.